فصلنامه اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
پیاپی 82 (تابستان 1392)

Understanding of the relationship between macroeconomic variables and its impact on the economy is important in planning and policy. According to Basic role of agriculture in national development, this study attempts to examine the impact of short-run and long-run relationship between the agricultural revenue and macroeconomic variables Such as real exchange rate, interest rate, liquidity, price index of agricultural products and petroleum revenue during the period 1991-2008. Therefore, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach used. Hence, Long-run relationship is identified between macroeconomic variables and the agricultural revenue. Price variable of agricultural products has a positive effect in long-run and a negative effect in short-run. Interest rate has negative relationship in short-run and long-run with the agricultural revenue. Real exchange rate has a positive relationship in long-run with the agricultural revenue, while it is not significant in the short-run. Also results indicate that liquidity has positive relationship in long-run with the agricultural revenue. Increasing liquidity has a positive relationship in the current period and a negative relationship in the next period in short-run. Considering the results, effect of petroleum revenues in short-run and long-run is Low and negative. Imbalance of short-run adjusted to long-run after about two years.

Expanding production and development of the agricultural sector requires increased investment in this sector. But financial constraints to investment and high risk of investments in production activities on the one hand, and multiplicity of needs and goals on the other hand, have made planning and investment prioritization in agricultural sector inevitable.In this study to determine investment priorities in the agricultural sector, methods of numerical Taxonomy and Topsis were used and agricultural sub-sectors utilizing the indicators related to the subject and base on statistics collected for a five-year period(2002-2006) have ranked. It has been found that during this period the farming and horticulture have the highest investment priority comparing to other agricultural sub-sectors. Then animal husbandary, forest and pasture and fisheries sub-sectors have next priorities in investment respectively. Therefore, It is suggested that government orientate locate support policies and measearments base on investment priorities in sub-sector of agriculural sector.

Water pricing is one of the important economic tools for water increasing demand management in the agricultural sector. In this study the economic value of agricultural water was calculated by using production function, in plain of Yazd–Ardakan. For this purpose, the required data through questionnaires from farmers producing wheat samples were collected in 1387-1388. After studying the results of different production functions, the generalized Leontief production function was selected as desired production function for wheat crop. The results of estimating water demand function shows that price elasticity of demand is equal to -2, that indicate demand of water is sensitive to water price changes. Therefore, using of pricing policies is an economic tool for reducing water use. Also, water economic value and water unit price per cubic meter were calculated 997.5 and 530,8 rials, respectively. The difference between economic value and unit price of water can be one of the reasons of excessive and unefficiency water use in wheat production.

This study attempts to provide a quantitative and economic framework for analyzing the impacts of reducing bread waste on production, consumption, trade as well as consumer's welfare. For this purpose, a partial equilibrium model of vertical markets was applied for wheat, flour and bread market. Statistics of production from agriculture ministry of agriculture as well as industry, mining and trade ministry, customs and central bank were gathered for analyzing the changes in consumer’s welfare from bread waste reduction in 2009. Results could efficiently reproduce actual quantities and market prices and so the validation of the applied model for scenario-building was confirmed. Then, the effects of reduction in total bread waste were examined for short and long-term horizon. The results showed that consumer's welfare decreases in short run as the total wastes decreases. While consumers and social welfare prosperity is possible in long-term. Also results showed that reforming the bread consumption pattern is associated with social disadvantages in short term and a minimum three-year program is required for changing it. So it is suggested that reforming bread consumption pattern should be considered as a medium-term or long-term policy among agricultural decision makers.

Since the promenades are allocating the part of the country's revenues, so attention of valuation is very important. Lack of financial resources to restore and create suitable recreational environments natural resource management lead to the valuation of these resources and using people's cooperation to maintain and restore them. This research determinates recreational value of Chack-Chack area by willingness to pay with contingent valuation and single-bounded dichotomous choice questionnaire. Results indicate that the average willingness to pay of people to entrance of the area is 4777 Rials for visitation from this area. Also, annual value of households and total recreational value of this area respectively is 10032 rials and 1.67 millions Rials.

Agricultural insurance is considered as an effective way to reduce production risk. In this study for investigating the factors which influence adoption of rural livestock insurance in Shoushtar county, 148 ranchers are selected by stratified random sampling in 2010 and their willingness toward insurance is analyzed using questionnairs and Logit model. The research findings showed that number of herds, awareness of insurance and access to brokers have a positive and significant effect on insurance adoption, while factors such as education and lack of beaucracy in damage compensation have a negative effect on insurance adoption. According to the estimated coefficients and the value of marginal effects, it is seemed that insurance companies can successful through organizing and managing steps such as employing and organizing experts and increasing access for ranchers and farmers, and providing ranchers with a suitable and practical bureaucratic model for insurance and redress.

Regard to the importance of choosing the appropriate crop area planning, this article studied ways for choose the best method of planning. Accordingly in this paper we use seven simple linear programming models with the objective functions of maximum profit, minimum cost, maximum Labor, minimum water, minimum calories, minimum fertilizer and maximum ranking, and these models with ranking method were compared with multi objective and Fuzzy multi-objective linear programming. In this model, the limitations of land, labor, capital, water, upper and lower bound of area cultivation has been used. For this purpose, cost-production data in 2010 were used. Ranking result show that Fuzzy multi-objective method with hyperbolic membership function, with these limitations able to meet all targets better than other models. Another important parameter for comparison models is amount of water consumption in different month. Accordingly, maximum calories and Fuzzy multi-objective models use their maximum water in May (Ordibehasht) and other models use their maximum water in June (Khordad) and July (Tir). Due to the warm weather and high evapotranspiration during the months of June and July and also increased the need for household water in these hot months, Fuzzy multi-objective model is better to choice.

This study introduces the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and compares its application in forecasting the three perspectives (1, 2 and 4 year(s)) ahead of Iran’s non-oil export -which the agricultural products made its main share with ARIMA as the most common econometric linear forecasting method during 1959-2008. Results of models performance evaluation showed that the forecasted test data related to ANFIS designed architects have more correspondence with the real data in comparison with the ARIMA forecasted out of sample data. Therefore the non-linear ANFIS model is more efficient than the linear ARIMA model for all considered perspectives of Iran’s non-oil export.

One of the main problems of agricultural insurance is adverse selection. Thus, the purpose of this study is survrey of adverse selection in agriculturel insurance. In this study a sample of 102 farmers who cultivated barley in Isfahan in year 2009-2010 were selected and define a model for Iran crop insurance by using certainty equivalent and preference functional including three incentives of risk-aversion, subsidy and asymmetric information for insured farmers. By comparing these incentives and effect of insurance on mean and variance of returns, the existence of adverse selection is determined. The results show that risk aversion is a minor part of farmers’ incentives, while subsidy and asymmetric information are the main part of farmers’ incentives towards demanding crop insurance. In other words, farmers don’t consider crop insurance as a tool for reducing the risk. The factor which absorb farmers to crop insurance is the subsidy paid by government. Also, asymmetric information causes farmers to benefit from the insurers’ lack of knowledge. Consequently, we conclude that there is adverse selection in Iranian crop insurance market. Based on the findings, the improvement of the governmental financial support to farmers, reforms in insurance rate-making, farmers risky classification and culture improvement to overcome the phenomena of adverse selection is suggested.

Exchange rate is of the most important factors affecting export, such that determining it in an acceptable and efficient level in countries like Iran is highly important since they attempt to expand non-oil exports such as agricultural exports. Regarding the above mentioned issue, this study aims to investigate the impact of exchange rate deviation on Iranian agricultural exports. To get the objective, the data set for 1973-2008 as well as ARDL model were used. According to the results obtained from specification of real exchange rate equation, we found government expenditure, term of trade and oil-agriculture output gap as factors influencing exchange rate negatively. Furthermore, equilibrium real exchange rate showed a significant deviation compared to its long-term path. Also, results obtained from agricultural exports supply revealed that equilibrium real exchange rate deviation from its long-term path, affects agriculture exports negatively in short and long-term.