فصلنامه روستا و توسعه
سال شانزدهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 62، تابستان 1392)

Forecasting the dynamics and future changes of rural population is considered as the most important issue in the process of sustainable rural development. The present study is an attempt to forecast the future changes of rural population during the period 2006-2031. Also، it examines the consequences of these changes. The results indicate that the proportion of rural settlements would decline from 31. 4 percent in 2006 to 22. 5 in 2031. The results of forecast indicate several main characteristics of rural population in the 2031 horizon: fertility reduction، life expectancy improvement، absolute and relative decline in rural population، increase in the supply of rural labour، and finally the aging of rural population. The present study proposes the improvement of labour productivity and rural households’ income level as remedies to deal with the increase in labour supply and aging of rural population in the 2031 horizon.

An examination of household’s nutritional performance is an appropriate tool in the determination of food availability. Three indices have been applied to examine the situation of food security in rural areas: mean adequacy ratio، Berry index and Entropy index. The results indicate that lower income deciles access to food is not acceptable and nutrients available to them are not adequate; in addition food diversity is less for low income groups in comparison to high income groups، which can be attributed to meager income of lower income decile households. Thus، the state should identify the households that need support، and this could be done by referring to the country’s food security plan، and subsidy payment system should be targeted and based on food items that are important in the provision of energy for individuals.

The general objective of the present study is to identify strategic dimensions of rural development. The present study applies Delphi technique during the period 2011-2012 to collect information that can help the improvement of rural development planning. The team of experts consists of 60 faculty members and PhD students of agricultural extension and training، agricultural development، and rural planning in Tarbiat Modarres and Tehran universities from which only 42 collaborate with the study. In the first round the group members identify 35 strategic dimensions in rural development and finally these dimensions are categorized in six groups of institutional-legal، training، infrastructural، health and social security، human resource development and agricultural development economics.

The study is an attempt to identify sustainability level in Takab county in West Azarbaijan province of Iran. This can provide a ground for sustainable rural development planning. The study has used 44 environmental، social and economic indicators. The sample size consists of 69 villages that are grouped in to natural-demographic classes. Data are collected through 629 local informants. By applying factor analysis، the data are reduced to 18 components and factor scores are entered as primary indicators to Morris Model to extract the sustainability level. The results show that 88. 5 percent of villages are unsustainable. A significant difference exists between mountainous and other villages from a sustainability stance. There are significant relationships between rural sustainability with population، and with the distance from the center of the county. The study recommends the sustainable use of resources، people empowerment، establishment of local organizations، subsistence diversification، prioritization of mountainous villages and a review of demographic policies and services.

Since the poorest people in the world live in rural areas، the development of sustainable rural subsistence should be addressed in the form of appropriate strategies to enhance the utilization of region’s resources، increase the production، reduce unrestrained migration of rural people، increase capital inflow، and the improvement of job opportunities. The achievement of sustainable rural subsistence is the main question of the present study and a new methodology with a futuristic perspective should be applied. This could help to identify the problems and challenges and to provide organizations responsible for rural development with necessary strategies. The study is a descriptive-analytical survey. The sample size is equal to 364 that are selected from villages in Khodabandeh county as well as 27 experts. Strategic factors are reflected in the questionnaire and presented to the respondents. The collected data are organized in the SWOT Strategic Model، and decision making is carried out by TOPSIS – Fuzzy Model. Considering the concentration of first، second and third strategies which are derived from the integration of the views of both groups، the focused strategy for initiation is an aggressive one.

Tooba project is devoted to the development of forests and orchards in parts of fertile national lands in Zagros area particularly in Lorestan province. The present study is a socio-economic evaluation of Tooba project in this province in 2006. The study indicates that average income، employment، and soil erosion differ significantly before and after the project implementation at 99 percent. The respondents identify tree planting as their second and third prioritized source of income، while it was the fourth source of income before the project implementation. Around 73 percent of rural people have a positive attitude towards the project and its benefits، and willingness of 75 percent of project executors with the continuation of the project indicate that people are satisfied with the introduction of such projects and the promotion of tree planting and orcharding.

The main claim of the present study is that rural study in Iran is facing many challenges and research constraints such as the marginalization of rural historiography، the absence of certain research approaches، specialization، and the lack of interaction among the existing disciplines in rural research. Annales School is a comprehensive and holistic approach that examines and focuses on extended structural changes in society in the long term. With the revival of historiographical tradition and an interdisciplinary research approach it can provide a setting for carrying out extensive historical rural study in Iran.

The main purpose of this study is the impact of farmers’ exposure to ICT on rice cultivators'' application of sustainable agricultural methods in rice cultivation. The rice cultivators exposure to ICT and the extent of farmers application of sustainable agriculture and its relation to ICT are examined. The data are collected through a questionnaire that the reliability and validity of its items are satisfactory. The statistical population consists of rice cultivators with access to ICT. The sample is selected randomly by Cochran method and covers 24 villages and 210 households. Agricultural sustainability as a dependent variable is assessed by 18 indicators. Access to ICT is evaluated at three levels of low، medium and high. The results of analysis of variance indicate that the sustainable agricultural practice and access to ICT has a significant relationship.