فصلنامه بررسی های حسابداری و حسابرسی
پیاپی 71 (بهار 1392)

Predicting profits of per share and economic changes as long have been a favorite event for investors, managers, financial analysts and creditors. In this paper GMDH neural network approach is used as a tool with top capability in navigation and detection of complex nonlinear process with limited number of observations for modeling and prediction of profit of per share of listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange. First a model was developed then by using deductive process and the exclusion of each variable from basic patterna total of eight models were run. The results showed patterns of exclusion return on assets, current ratio and efficiency of basic pattern of investment have the most effect in reducing prediction error respectively. Inventory turnover and collection period has also double effect in reducing errors. Finally the excellence accuracy of GMDH neural network in prediction of profit of per share compared to ARIMA method based on error criterion was approved.

When investors have more information about the firm fundamentals which determine the financial situation of firm, they should be more capable of detecting earnings management and managers therefore will have less incentive to manage earnings. This paper empirically tests the impact of Market information about four important firms’ fundamentals on the level of earnings management. The results show that the firms are less likely to manage earnings when investors know more about operation cash flow and stockholders equity return. But there is no evidence to support this negative and significant influence in the case of two other examined fundamentals which are earnings quality and sale variation.

The objective of this study in first stage studies the value relevance of earnings and book value، and in second stage study effect of Free Cash Flow agency problem on the value relevance of earnings and book value. The value relevance of earnings and book value are tested by Ohlson’s Price model (1995). To test Hypotheses of This study used a sample of 97 listed companies on Tehran Stock Exchange over a seven-year period (2004-2011). The results show that Book value per share for firms have Agency Problem and other firms are irrelevance value. Moreover result show that earning per share in presence or absent of agency problem of FCF is value relevance. The amount of value relevance of earning per share in firms with agency problems is lower. Thus FCF Agency problem have a negative effect on the value relevance of earnings.

According to importance of the relationship between stock and its alternative assets in the framework of portfolio theory and also since recently these assets are faced with many fluctuations in Iran، investigation the relationship between fluctuations of alternative assets and stock price index in Tehran stock exchange is a very important subject in financial field. In this paper an attempt is made to study the long- run and short-run relationship between various alternative assets of stock (included cash، bank deposit، currency، gold and house) and the stock price index of Tehran stock exchange and also with stock price index of selected industries included Chemicals & By products industry and Motor Vehicles and Auto Parts industry over Farvardin 1388 through Esfand 1390. The analysis is based on a vector auto-regressive (VAR)، Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition. The results show that there is a significant long- run relationship between stock price index and all alternative assets in all 3 models. We find that the fluctuations in all variables (except gold coin) have a positive effect on the stock price index in the long- run، while the fluctuations in all variables (except liquidity) decrease stock price index in the short- term.

Cash distributions to the shareholders، can have information content for future companies will have flexibility. Study role of Cash distributions to the shareholders and sizes of on non-governmental error forecast operating cash flows are reviewed The operational criteria used to influence the distribution of cash، the profit is divided. Company total assets and Total sales were used to measure separately. Hence the number of companies active in 71 companies during the period 90-84 Stock Bhadarthran based screening method was chosen To determine error forecast cash flow per year، the time period four years ago، the company''s data، using cross-sectional regression model - multivariate combination was used Then the effect of firm size and Cash distributions to the shareholders on the error of the forecast cash flow، a comparison test we used the average of two independent communities. The results indicate the effectiveness of firm size and Cash distributions to the shareholders separately and the Precision Time on the operating cash flow error forecast and no influence of firm size and Cash distributions to the shareholders separately both the Precision Time error Forecasting free cash flow level is 95% confidence.

This research reviews the relationship between earnings quality and future operating cash flows considering financial conditions of sampled companies. For measuring earnings quality، abnormal accruals are used as an explanatory variable in regression models. Financial conditions of companies are used as a moderate variable using Charitou bankruptcy probability model and Ant colony system is used for separating bankrupt and non-bankrupt companies. Operating cash flows is used as a dependent variable in regression models. Research statistical sample contains 72 listed companies in TSE for the period 1380-1388. Results from testing research statistical hypotheses indicate there is a significant relationship between earnings quality and future operating cash flows. On the other hand، there is a significant difference between Charitou bankruptcy probability and Ant colony system models in explaining the relationship between earnings quality and operating cash flows

This paper examines empirically the effect of firm growth opportunities on the market valuation of free cash flow. An accounting-based valuation framework is developed where stock returns are regressed on free cash flow interacted with growth opportunities proxy، after controlling for book values، dividends، and current earnings. Required data from 89 companies over a ten year period is quarterly gathering. According to the result، it can in decisions affecting corporate managers and investors are to achieve an appropriate return in the Iranian capital market. The results indicate a significant positive relationship between free cash flow and return on equity with growth opportunities.