فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردی
سال سیزدهم شماره 1 (پیاپی 47، بهار 1389)

AlthoughIraqis a country of 90 years history, it has not solved its essential infrastructural problems yet. Here six prominent reasons are mentioned for these unsolved problems. One of them is nation-state building process which is explained in. three different levels: first, state building, nation building and country rebuilding. The first level explains about the British Force's role in incomplete state-building inIraq, Iraqi military force's control on political power and their presence in government, and finally the presence of a reinter government inIraq. The second level is about the nation building process. And the third one tells us about rebuildingIraqafter 2003 and future prospects with regard to the historical experiences.

There are four prominent actors in new power balance inIraq: US and UN forces, internal Ethnic and religious groups,Iraq's neighbors and global terroristic institutions. Each of them tries to make the futureIraqin its own favorite way.This essay tries to evaluate the present and future situations inIraqby explaining goals, facilities, interests and strategies of the mentioned actors. In addition,Iran's favorite scenario about futureIraqis discussed among other probable options.

In addition to emphasizing the importance of the regime change inIraqand the new political-social environment in this country, this essay explains the internal elements and parameters affecting its foreign policy. The essential question here is about the internal sources affecting it. The answer is that newIraq's foreign policy like the previous kingdom and republic period is affected mostly by some constant internal parameters like: contradiction between identity and sovereignty or between government and nation, geopolitical difficulties, the reliance of economy on the oil and common Arabic identity and values. In spite of changes inIraq's legal structure, these parameters and elements have not changed a lot and it doesn’t even seem to change much in the future.

Salafism is one of the most important ideological events in the history of Islam. Its supporters insist on the necessity of the Salafist approaches, trends and movements based on the feghi literature. They reproduce this literature in accordance with the current events.Iraqthat has a critical geographical and geo-political position and close mutual relations with Iran, has been confronting Salafism since its formation. So, after USinvasion, it has become a nest for the Salafist activities. These activists that can be considered the most prominent non-governmental actors in the present events of Iraq cooperate with other Salafi groups of the region and the world. The writer discusses the developing role and activities of these groups and their geo-political and ideological impact on Iran considering the growth of Salafism in the years after 2003.

This essay has described the prospect of the relations of Arab states with newIraqthat has obtained a new position in Arab states foreign policy. A position which is different from the one it had during Saddam's period.Iraqhas been prominent in Arabic history and culture. Nowadays, Arabic Identity has been affected by the events ofIraqthat has worried Arab leaders and pan-Arabs. The writer has explained the Arab states policies and positions towardUSinvasion and capturingIraq, region's present condition, Arab state's relations with Iraqi Shia government, national security discourse, new Arabic order in front ofIraqafter Saddam and the impact of this discourse on the Arab state's Foreign policy.

United StatesandIraqrelations were not so good during Saddam Regime and it was even worsened after Iraqi invasion ofKuwaitwhich ended in the overthrow of Baathist regime. From 2003 to 2009,Iraqwas under the control of US and the coalition forces. This situation came to an end when a security agreement was signed betweenWashingtonandBagdad. Their formal relations changed accordingly but their military- security relations are defined according to the security and political situation ofIraq, US and specially Obama's policies towardIraqand the region, and Iran- US relations. This essay figures out the US-Iraq Military and Security Relations Perspective based on the three mentioned parameters.

Future Iraq is a resultant of past and present situation, tendencies and trends of the effective internal and external actors, the future chances and challenges and their positive and negative internal and regional effects. This essay tries to give a strategic assessment of the future Iraq through criticizing the idealist scenario which tells us about the new Iraqi constitution and the strategic aims defined by it for the future: creating democracy inside Iraq and peace seeking in its foreign policy. The writer has used the structuralism approach to investigate this scenario and to give a strategic assessment of the future Iraq. According to this approach, the history, geography, culture and political economy of Iraq confines the idealist scenario and causes a struggle between ideals and realities.