فصلنامه پژوهش ها و سیاست های اقتصادی
پیاپی 75 (پاییز 1394)

In this paper we specify and estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for an oil exporting and small open economy in accordance with the structure of the Iranian economy. The paper aims to examine the effects and also the mechanism of monetary, fiscal, oil export revenues and foreign exchange shocks on real and nominal macroeconomic variables. Our simulation results show that about 40 percent of any monetary base growth leads to inflation. Fiscal policy stimulates aggregate demand and increases inflation as well. But, the intensity and the amount of influence of current and development budget is not the same, the effect of development budget depends on the length of delays in implementation of state projects. Most of the macroeconomic variables are affected as a result of an oil shock due to dependency of Iran's economy on petro dollars. Although most of the economic operation use official exchange rate, parallel exchange rate affects significantly on the real and nominal variables due to private sector expectations. The details and the exact amount of effects of each shocks is presented in the full text of the paper.In this paper we specify and estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for an oil exporting and small open economy in accordance with the structure of the Iranian economy. The paper aims to examine the effects and also the mechanism of monetary, fiscal, oil export revenues and foreign exchange shocks on real and nominal macroeconomic variables. Our simulation results show that about 40 percent of any monetary base growth leads to inflation. Fiscal policy stimulates aggregate demand and increases inflation as well. But, the intensity and the amount of influence of current and development budget is not the same, the effect of development budget depends on the length of delays in implementation of state projects. Most of the macroeconomic variables are affected as a result of an oil shock due to dependency of Iran's economy on petro dollars. Although most of the economic operation use official exchange rate, parallel exchange rate affects significantly on the real and nominal variables due to private sector expectations. The details and the exact amount of effects of each shocks is presented in the full text of the paper.

As a set of policies and action plans for supporting the poor and aiding the help seekers, social security is a phenomenon especially attributed to the modern industrial age. Therefore, revising and reforming the basic principles of social security is indeed a new phenomenon since many problems in this area have recently surfaced. These problems arise from the imbalance in revenues and costs of social security systems. Nowadays, many European countries are faced with the phenomenon of the aging population as a serious crisis while lacking necessary infrastructure to address such a challenge. Consequently, the problems regarding social security system are becoming even more complicated. This study analyses the effects of replacement rate’s parametric reform on the social security system in Iran by using a six-year-period overlapping generations model. The aim of this research is studying the effects of change in the replacement rate on capital accumulation, savings and labor supply. New findings show that labor supply, individual savings and eventually the level of aggregate capital stock would drastically rise after the reduction of replacement rate in Iran’s social security system.

Financial crisis and its contagion to real sector of economy can be seen as a good space to evaluate Islamic bank's performance compared with conventional bank. In this paper, we continue this line to study how financial and economic crisis affect the cost efficiency of Islamic and conventional banks. Our sample contains Jordan, United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Palestine, Qatar, Kuwait, Malaysia and Egypt. Findings show that average cost efficiency of Islamic banks is the same as conventional banks in financial crisis. But when we consider conventional bank’s access to government’s special support, this finding can be translate to better performance of Islamic banks. On the contrary, in economic crisis, conventional banks have higher efficiency and better performance than Islamic banks. This finding can show that Islamic banking have to improve its ability to manage risks in real markets

Since the development of the capital asset pricing models, identifying the determinants of asset returns and risks have been considered by researchers. Exchange rate is one of the most important variables, which has close relationship with financial markets. Exchange rate movements affect stock prices through changing the value of firm’s assets. Increasing exchange rate due to the recent economic sanctions of the central bank of Iran by SWIFT highlights the exchange rate role in financial markets. In this study, daily data from January 1st, 2009 to July 31st, 2013 was used within a framework of Panel Vector Autoregression (Panel VAR) model to analyze the effects of exchange rate shocks on financial markets. Main results are: 1) according to the flow-oriented models, in this study exchange rate leads the stock price and the response of the stock index would be positive to exchange rate shock, 2) in the situation of economic sanction, foreign currency acts as real asset, and 3) in the situation of economic sanction, the effect of exchange rate shock on stock index would be negative in long-term, which would be a cause of dependency of domestic products to imported machinery and materials.

There is a consensus that a sound and credible monetary policy leads to low inflation. However, the ability to control money supply is a prerequisite for success in curbing inflation. This paper emphasizes on the money supply endogeneity, and investigates the impact of the budget deficits on the liquidity using SVARX model over the period 1979-2010. Budget deficits are defined as the difference between operating deficits and net acquisition of nonfinancial assets. The results indicate that changes in the liquidity do not necessarily depend on the increasing or decreasing the budget deficits. In fact, both increasing the operating budget deficits and increasing the net acquisition of nonfinancial assets lead to increase liquidity. Furthermore, the results show that the operating deficits is the main factor of expansion net foreign assets and net claims on public sector of liquidity, and also it is the main factor of the expansion banking system claims on private sector through repression of real interest rate. Therefore, the operating deficits dominates the assets of banking system and hence liquidity. Therefore, reducing and controlling the operating budget deficits- and not necessarily the budget deficits - is a prerequisite for success in curbing money supply and inflation in Iranian economy. Fiscal reforms are associated with the ability to control the net foreign assets and net claims on public sector. Furthermore, financial liberalization decreases excess demand for credits and reduce its fluctuations.

In this study, the behavior of monetary and fiscal policy in the Iranian economy has been investigated during the period of 1360 to 1392 using Markov switching model. For this purpose, the monetary and fiscal policy rules has been used in which the growth rate of liquidity and the tax revenues are as instruments of the monetary and fiscal policies. The results from the likelihood ratio test show that both the fiscal and monetary policy rules in the Iranian economy follow a regime switching model. Based on the results from the estimation of fiscal and monetary policies rules using a Markov switching model, the period of study divided into three periods in the years of 1360 to 1364, both monetary and fiscal policymakers have faced with passive monetary and fiscal policies, so that, they did not have an adaptive behavioral interaction with each other. During the years of 1365 to 1387, the Iranian economy has faced with the passive monetary policy but an active fiscal policy, So that, in this period, the monetary policymaker has no powerful reaction in adjustment of its policy instruments to increasinginflation at the same time, increasing the outstanding debt of government decreases the tax revenues and increases the budget deficit. Finally, in the period of 1388 to 1392, the policymakers follow the passive monetary and fiscal policies

In this paper, we studied the effect of institutional quality and natural resource rents on the export of developing countries by using a panel data model for 34 countries over the period of 1996 to 2013. The results show that there is a direct relationship between institutional quality improvement and export growth in these countries. There is also a positive relationship between natural resource rents and export growth. It expressed the importance of non-price factors in explaining the behavior of exports from developing countries, so these components should be considered in an economic plan and policy objectives

Demand for money is a key component in many macroeconomic theories that always it has been subject of extensive debate among economists. Evaluating this function in macroeconomic problem solving and appropriate policies is important. In other words, fiscal and monetary policy adoption depends on the notice of money demand function and its influencing factors in the economy of each country, so the main objective of this paper is theoretical explanation and estimating money demand of Iran using sidrauski's pattern. Since private consumption in each country's economy is a major part of the aggregate demand, the analysis of this sector and its effect on money demand is very important. For this purpose, in empirical part, modified sidrauski's pattern and annual data have been used over the period 1360-1392 and also for estimating long-run effect of the variables of model on money demand and short-run effect respectively are used auto regression model of distributed lag (ARDL) and error correction model (ECM). The results suggest that consumption has a significant and positive effect on the demand for money in the short-run and long-run, so there is a long-run balance between money demand and private consumption. Inflation tax has also positive and significant effect on money demand in long-run and short-run but consumption tax does not have any significant effect on money demand in the period of 1360-1392

The study of tax compliance with new approaches, involve added of non-economic factors such as social factors and institutional structures to the traditional model. The article tries to add "tax morale" to the model of tax compliance. The components of tax morale are quantitated with questionnaire which derived from world values survey (wvs). The statistical society included all of the taxpayers of Isfahan and random sampling was conducted by the Tax Administration and Finance organization in Isfahan. The size of the sample in order to determine the hypothesis of research is equal to 100 taxpayers. After collecting the data, the analysis by using descriptive and inferential statistical methods has been done. In order to test the hypothesis of the research, we used the multivariate OLS regression and multivariate logistic regression model with two Statements. The results of the estimated models show, attitude towards tax evasion, social norms and trust to the government and the tax, legal and judicial system at the level of 95% and age of taxpayers at the level of 90% have positive and significant effects on the tax morale. Tax morale variable at the level of 95% has positive and significant effect on tax compliance as well.