فصلنامه پژوهش های اقتصادی ایران
پیاپی 31 (تابستان 1386)

This paper, studies the impact of Rial's real devaluation and scale (domestic and foreign real income) variables on Iran's trade balance using of Johansen-Juselius and ARDL methods during the period 1338-1383. According to co-integration tests, trade balance variables, domestic and foreign income and black market exchange rate are co-integrated and create a long run equilibrium relationship. Moreover, all the long- and short- run coefficients have expected signs, being stable during sample period. However, the official exchange rate is not able to explain trade balance fluctuations satisfactorily during the sample period. The results of co-integration tests reject the null of long run equilibrium relationship among trade balance, scale variables and official exchange rate. The diagnostic tests in the error correction models with official rate imply serious is specifications too. The study suggests the need to monitor the black market rather than official exchange rate. The main purpose of this paper is to examine an appropriate exchange rate policy in Iran. Most of the studies in Iranian economy have suggested a flexible exchange rate policyies with a coordination between monetary and exchange rate policies for the Iranian economy. In this paper, paper, we test the hypothesis that the managed exchange rate policyies is the most appropriate policyies for Iran using the Mundell-_Fleming model, and 2sls 2SLS method for period 1974-2004. The estimated macro _ econometrics model has beenis used to simulate the reaction of five exchange rates regimes to fluctuations of net asset from abroad of in the banking system shocks. The results reveals that the managed exchange rates in terms of trade balance and purchasing power paritypolicy are expected wouldto yield a more stable prices, prices, imports, welfare and money stock. In contrast, a quasi-_floating exchange rate policyies, in which the exchange rate is determined by the percentage of trade balance deviations, will result in the worst kind of volatility in prices, prices, imports, welfare and money stock. stock.

Modern location quotient method (MLQM) is used to generate regional input-output coefficients (RIOCs). It has a number of functions which one should take into account in generating RIOCs and for statistical testing. The prerequisite for such statistical testing is the availability of survey- based RIOCs. This then raises the following important question: “In the absence of survey based RIOCs, is it possible to apply MLQM for generating RIOCs for country like Iran? If yes, how to test the derived coefficients statistically? To answer that, we propose a new method for statistical testing through minimizing total errors using Ghosh supply side model.

Existence of unit root in logarithm of real GDP can be the sign of that of random walk with drift process for potential output. In this respect, the time growth rate of the potential output can be estimated as a proxy for productivity in state- space form. For this purpose, at first potential output and GDP gap have been simultaneously estimated with Kalman Filter algorithm. In this paper, the results of the potential output and production cycle have been compared with the results of Hodrick- Prescott and Bxter-King approaches. The three methods have confirmed the increase in the economic stability in recent years. With regard to dependence of government income on oil price shocks, the attempt is to incorporate the productivity into the model as a random walk process. This makes it possible to estimate productivity time services during the period from the first quarter of 1367 to the forth quarter of 1384. Findings show that productivity in recent years has enjoyed a slow but positive trend and is somewhat stable. This information could encourage the policy makers to keep the upward trend of it.

According to the definition, the international reserves consist of the international cash assets, which the central bank of every country keeps in order to reach some goals, for example: interfering in the foreign exchange market and financing the balance-of-payments deficit. On one hand, the central banks encounter with the holding of the international reserves for financing the balance-of-payments deficit and on the other hand, holding these reserves involves opportunity costs. Therefore, the monetary officials of countries pursue optimizing their international level of reserves. The special economic conditions of the country, such as the severe economic dependency to incomes from oil selling, lacking of the necessary flexibility in the foreign exchange, commercial limitations and controlling the capital flows, insufficient availability to the international financial markets, lacking of a comprehensive management of the foreign exchange debts, and incidence of different events and its effects upon the economy of the country in recent years, such as the oil shock of 1973, have caused in determining the optimized level of the international reserves to be very important economically. In this Article, we used the dynamic optimization model and the econometrics approaches in order to determine the optimized level of the international reserves of Central Bank of The Islamic Republic of Iran during 1961-2004.We used the model of Frankel, Jovanovic based upon Bamol’s and Toobin’s buffer stock (inventory) model, and models of ARCH and GARCH. The findings show that the real reserves level is different of the optimized reserves level in the studied years. The real reserves level is lower than the optimized reserves level. Also, the findings show that the real reserves level was higher than the optimized reserves level when Iran faced with the severe increase in the oil price.

Over the final two decades of the 20th century, a number of formerly industrializing economics achived levels of innovative capacity commensurate with or greater than those of some economies that were historically more innovative. These factor cause the increasing scale of production to achive successful catch-up. The basic question is, what condition and factors effect innovative capacity. The framework of National Innovative capacity(NIC) can determine the difference in innovation and economic growth between countries. NIC is the ability of a country to produce and commercialize a flow of innovative technology over the long term. NIC depends on the strength of a nation’s common innovation infrastructure, the environment for innovation in its leading industrial clusters, and strength of linkage between these two areas. I use this framework to gude and find the productivity of Iran NIC. The estimated equations imply there are weak linkage between innovation and NIC. there are some weakes in elements of Iran NIC and their relationships.

The main objective of this paper is to explore the linkage between the real wage rate and labor productivity in the industrial sector of Iran over period 1979-2002 by using the ARDL approach. The empirical results confirm a long run (co-integrated) relationship between the real wage rate and the productivity along side with other variables in the model where the labor productivity has a positive impact on real wage rate, but is not significant statistically. Also, the Granger test demonstrates that there is no causality link between these two variables. In fact, other factors, including the government domination on the major industrial units (by setting an administrated wage rate), labor laws, and lack of effective labor unions have led to an inflexible wage rate system.

The main objective of this study is to assess the effects of monetary policies on consumption behaviors of rural households in Iran, using models based on Euler equations and OLS and IV approaches. Results showed that there is no specific pattern for the relationship between consumption growth of rural households and interest rate. In other words, there are no interactions between monetary policies and rural household's consumption. Also, consumers with liquidity constraint were recognized to perform a higher proportion compared to those whose consumption is affected by interest changes. Furthermore, precautionary savings is dominant on consumption behavior of rural households.

From the past and so far the phenomena of poverty was with human beings and it is one of the important problems of the communities.There is different and several definitions of the concept of poverty that in terms of method has a very different categories of poverty and in this research explains and surveys how to measure it with related indexes. Based on this concept Relative Poverty Line" is the inability of families to meet one determine level of standards of living that is realized necessary and desirable in the current society".To survey the level of standard of living we have used components of eight main groups with its price index of them that is published by Iran Statistic Center including: Food, clothes, housing, furniture, health¬¬ and treatment, transportation, recreation and education and none-reguler group.For determining relative poverty line, we used LES that based on it the least living was 6/460/500 Rials in 1374 (1995) that is reached 27/287/271 Rials in 1383 (2004) with the regard to the least living, they have accounted index of numeration ratio, income gap ratio, income inequity between the poor and KaKwani also from 1384 to 1383. It has reached in 1374: 52%, 39%, 33%, 17%, relatively that in 1383 was 17%, 33%, 16%, 3%. The situation and the trends of these indexes show the situation of the poverty and the poor during that period.Also, we find that by comparing the years of the second five-year (1374-78) with the program of the third five-year (1379-83) that the situation of poverty during the program of the third five-year related to the program of the second five-year, it is better that this case resulted from the indexes even though the least living has increased in the third five-year program in comparison with the second five-year program.