فصلنامه تحقیقات اقتصادی
پیاپی 106 (بهار 1393)

Nowadays، marketing is considered as one of the most important parts of all manufacturing and service activities. In order to reach more share of goal market، different companies always update and change their marketing policies. These companies have to know that different customers impressed by different marketing policies and them، they should choose most suitable policies for one goal group. The other words، they have manage their cost beside managing market and income. Applying multinomial logit model and collecting data form 201 food customers in Mashhad in 2012، the current research tries to investigate effective factors on effectiveness of each advertisement method. The results show that married people، high-income ones، youth، women، educated people and larger families are more affected by media and sellers. In addition these results indicate that men، aged، single، low-income and low-literate people are more affected by their friends.

This paper analyzes the reaction of the 9th Government with workers and capitalists using game theory. The type of game between three players is static with perfect information. Strategy of the players is determined through the use of Hierarchical Processes and Network Analysis Method. The equilibrium between these three players is the Nash type of equilibrium. In the Hierarchical and Network Analyses the 1st priority for the government and the capitalists’ players is a lower unemployment rate and access to better business conditions، in that order; however، the 1st priority for the workers is receiving a higher real wage، in the Hierarchical Analysis، and protecting their employment، in the Network Analysis. Contradictory priorities indicate that strategies are not optimum. According to the Nash Balance Games’ Theory too، the priorities are higher rate of economic growth (national income)، for the government، and better business conditions and getting a higher real wage، for the workers.

Modern Portfolio Theory is based on Harry Markowitz''s 1952 work on mean-variance portfolios. He stated that a rational investor should either maximize his expected return for a given level of risk، or minimize his risk for a given expected return. In this study the Markowitz model with cardinality constraints was studied. We extend the standard model to include cardinality constraints that limit a portfolio to have a specified number of assets، and to impose limits on the proportion of the portfolio held in a given asset (if any of the assets is held). Since considering the Markowitz model with cardinality constraints leads to NP-hard optimization problem، we introduce a Genetic Algorithm. In the usual manner، mean of the historical returns are used as inputs in the Markowitz model as rate of stock returns estimation. With studying the security prices، are shows that the rate of stock returns is difference with mean of historical returns، so with the aim of artificial neural networks، they were estimated. The proposed method was experienced on Tehran stock Exchange and the method was showed good results.

In this paper for calculating Policy Analysis Matrix parameters، with regard to real or shadow prices، we pay attention to variation of endogenous variables، using results of CGE model. The results of the study indicated that،in output market، because of government policies، there are implicit tax on products of IRAN; s auto industry. But inputs of auto industry، benefits from government subside and protections. The results show that Domestic Resource Cost index (DRC) for auto industry is less than one. it means that outputs of IRAN; s auto industry have potential comparative advantage. Effective Protection Coefficient (EPC) is less than one too. it indicated that، on the whole lot، auto industry، does not benefit from government protections.

The main objectives of this paper are measuring the technical efficiency of Iranian thermal power plants and investigating the determinants of technical efficiency levels in these plants. Stochastic Nonparametric Envelopment Data (StoNED) method applied to plant-level data over a period of thirteen years from 1999 to 2011. This is the first comprehensive analysis (to our knowledge) of technical efficiency in the Iranian electricity generation industry using StoNED method. Our empirical results indicate that plant size and rate of capacity utilization have positive effects and age of power plants have negative influence on technical efficiency. We also observe gas-fired power plants tend to be more technically efficient than other power plants. Finally، we find that power market restructuring in 2003 had positive effect on the technical efficiencies of Iranian thermal power plants.

In spite of nonhuman species، determining quantity of children among human beings is the result of a decision-making process. There is a set of factors that influences this decision in which income is the most important and ambiguous of them. Using an optimization model in which utility of parents depends the amount of consumed goods and number of their children، it is shown that increase income، ceteris paribus leads to increase in demand for child but the total effect could be negative. The evidence from Tehran suggests that the income effect is positive but statistically insignificant. Totally، the total effect of an increase in income is negative and statistically significant.

In this paper، based on a new Keynesian structure، we have analyzed monetary policy response to exchange rate volatilities in Iran. For this purpose، first، exchange rate derived from equilibrium condition in exchange market and then two different models have been estimated. Assumption on the first model is that central bank responses to exchange rate volatilities and the assumption on the second model is that central bank does not response. To opt proper model، Bayes factor and Likelihood ratio tests have been used. The results show that، first model is a better model in describing central bank’s behaviour. In other words، central bank has responded to exchange rate volatilities its coefficient in the monetary rule is -0. 12. So، when central bank faces with an exchange rate shock، chooses contractionary monetary policy. This result is consistent with the results from model simulations.

Many studies indicate that trade costs are large and significant. The question is whether trade costs could explain the size of the trade and shed light on the mystery of missing trade. In this framework، this paper studies 73 developing countries in the period 2005-2011. The results of our panel data analysis signify that “the pecuniary costs of trade” and “the number of necessary documents” affect the size of the trade negatively and significantly. This result is derived after controlling for the size of the economies، the degree of openness and the tariff costs of the trade.

Technical efficiency of different sectors is important for economic policy making purposes. This study considering regions as independent decision-making units، measures technical efficiency of industrial sector for every region of the country and then examines its determinant factors. Generally influential factors of efficiency are classified in two main groups. First group includes the basic elements of production which have a direct effect on efficiency; these elements are inside the production function. The second group consists of environmental elements absent in the production function but indirectly influential on efficiency. The results show that labor، capital and energy inputs as direct elements، and number of production sites، the population، and income of employers in each region as environmental elements are the main determining factors of technical efficiency. Utilizing the new method of Anderson and Peterson (AP) is main contribution of this study.