فصلنامه تحقیقات اقتصادی
پیاپی 117 (زمستان 1395)

Iran’s economy is recognizes as a high inflationary country (For near almost all years after Islamic revelation) which is suffered to external shocks such as external conflict interactions (for example war and sanctions) and oil price shocks. Therefore, analysis and estimation of money demand in Iran should consider above issues in order to have efficient money supply policy.
This paper, apply HSE index to estimate the effects of external conflict interactions. Hodrick-Prescott filter has been used to estimate expected inflation. The money demand function of modified Cagan’s is estimated during 1979 to 2013 by ARIMAX and VAR methods. The results show that, expected inflation by 3 lags, has negative effect on money demand but external conflict interactions by two lags and oil price has positive effects on the money demand.

One of the main principles of resistance economy, is to support domestic production and limiting imports, especially in sectors where there is the possibility of import-substituting production .This requires adjustment of exact trade policies,and to achieve this, identifying the structure of imports demand function and also price and income elasticity of import demand is necessary.This necessity is much more in the case of critical goods such as pharmaceutical. Therefore, Policy making in the field of drug imports, including quantitative ceilings or tariff on imported goods requires precise information about the sensitivity of import demand to price and income, as well as being essential or luxury of imported drugs for domestic consumers. The aim of this study is to estimate the price and income elasticity of imports by origin of imports to Iran (Switzerland, Germany, France and other countries) over the period of 1992 to 2014 and using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Source Differenced Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (SDQUAIDS) method. The results show that the income and price elasticity of import of drugs, both are smaller than one and the income elasticity is greater than the price elasticity. Estimating the elasticity by the origins of imports showed that the income elasticity of import of drugs from France and Germany is greater than one. Also the price elasticity of imports from all origins under study is less than one.

In this reaserch by comparing some of the recent litreture on indentification production Function, we estimate total factor productivity. We focus on parametric methods, especially Blundell and Bond (2000), Ollay and Pakes (1996), Levinsohn and Petrin (2003) and OLS.Using panel data on plant-level of 4-digits isic in Iran from 1380 to 1390. We choose Levinsohn and Petrin (2003) as the most appropriate estimator then we use that estimator for estimating productivity of plants. At the end, we investigate the relation between firm size, productivity and, its ownership and productivity.

Investment shows a combination of demand of firms and supply household savings and due to the volatile nature reflects short-term fluctuations in the economy of any country. This study examines the effect of abundance natural resources on private sector investment through the economic freedom and five main index (government's size, the structure of property rights, access to sound money, freedom of foreign trade and regulations), in the selected countries of the petroleum exporting for the period 2000-2012. Statistical society to be formed from fifteen groups of oil exporting countries as a sample group and fifteen members of developed countries of OECD as a control group. The research model using panel data and the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimated. The estimation results reflect the negative impact of the government's measure private sector investment in both countries has chosen. Abundance of natural resources regulations as well as channel indicator on private sector investment in developing countries has a significant positive impact and in oil-exporting countries have had a significant negative impact. Meanwhile, abundance of natural resources through the index of economic freedom, freedom of foreign trade, the structure of property rights, access to sound money in both groups of countries have had a significant positive effect on private sector investment.

In literature about inflation targeting, main factor is interest rate. In new surveys, price of some assets as housing is important in inflation targeting. Iran inflation targeting is based on money changes and is not based on interest rate and housing price. In this paper, we want to survey problems of wrong policy of Iran policy makers. We reveal that, using rate of deposit profit and growth of housing price in two separate models for inflation targeting have same results. Results of first model shows that policy makers in Iran for determination of interest rate do not attention to economic conditions, inflation and production gap. Therefore inflation and production gap have small response to interest rate changes.

Transport infrastructure is an important factorforthe spatialdistribution ofgoods, services andinnovationswithinand between regions, and also an important factorin locating andestablishingbusinessesinthe region.
This research aims to analyze the effects of transportation infrustructure on industrial concentration in the Iranian provinces. For this aim, we have specified econometrics models and estimated them by using OLS with panel-corrected standard errors ýfor 28 provinces of Iran over the period 2001-2011.
The results of econometrics models have shown that cost of transport has negative effect on industrial concentration in the Iranian provinces.

Today trade is the basis of development of any societies that with its expansion, the industrial enterprises, takes advantage of its benefits and enhances their productivity. Also they earn competitive advantage and further providing domestic needs, can capture the new markets. Among these, the role of imports in trade is very important because the import of capital and intermediate inexpensive goods, reduce production costs, create competitive environment and increase productivity.
In Iran, despite trade liberalization in 1989, policy makers and intellectuals has been toward to expanding exports, while the Iranian industry have enormous potential of production, It is strongly dependent on import of raw materials and intermediate and capital goods.
Therefore, in this study the impact of import competition on total factor productivity were studied during (1992-2012) by using dynamic econometric panel data. The results show that import competition has a positive impact on total factor productivity of Iranian industries. In contrast, trade liberalization and the size of the industry, as a criteria of the size of the domestic market, had a negative impact on total factor productivity.

Interest as investment opportunity cost or in other words cost of obtaining the credit requirement in the production Process, have a key role in the good's cost price and hence it's necessary to control this kind of variables that have harmful effects on the interest rate's trends. Among this, the unexpected changes in some variables that can have destructive effects on interest rates process and hence cause good's cost price to face with uncertainty, can be more critical. In this regard, this study examines the relationship between inflation uncertainty and real interest rate of bank trust funds in Iran using monthly data for period 1383:1 – 1393:12. For this purpose, the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with corrected dynamic conditional correlation approach is applied. The results showed a positive and significant impact of inflation uncertainty on real interest rate of bank trust fundsin Iran.

In the present study, competitiveness of Iranian pistachio exports and competitor countries in the world market are studied. pistachio export advantage using indices of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) approach and vector error correction model(VECM) based on agricultural and non-petroleum export commodity basket were investigated separately. The results showed that Iran has a comparative advantage in pistachio export in the 1975-2012 period and considering both commodity basket, Iran have first ranking in pistachio exports.After Iran, Respectively the Turkey, Hong Kong, Germany, Italy, United States, Belgium and Netherlands have been comparative advantage in pistachio export in the 1975-2012 period. The rating is based on exports of agricultural commodity basket.On the other hand, in recently years, Pistachio export market of Hong Kong, United States, Turkey, Belgium, Germany have become a serious competitor for Iranian pistachios export and Iran's relative advantage in Pistachio export affected from export advantage of these countries. According to these findings, Iran's Pistachio export policy needs to be reconsidered

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of monetary, fiscal and oil revenue shocks on macroeconomic variables in the framework of rule and discretionary monetary policy. To end this, we use a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Given the dominant role of oil in the country, we consider the role of oil shock in the model through different channels.
The simulation results suggest that monetary shocks have a significant effect on inflation but the effectiveness of monetary shocks is different in rule and discretionary policy.
Government expenditure shocks motivate variables in the real sector, but government development budget has not increased private investment instantly, it will rise slightly with lags. This may be due to different reasons such as long lasting state projects and low precision in the project selection.
Due to dependency of Iranian economy on petro Dollars, an oil shock has a big impact on all variables. A positive oil shock increases production, consumption and employment. However, it raises inflation as well.