فصلنامه راهبرد
پیاپی 51 (تابستان 1388)

Georgia's military activities for regaining domination over two separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia during summer 2008 created a new crisis in the troubled region of Caucasus. Russia's military operations to protect these two regions and its unilateral act of recognition of the independence of them led to tensions in relations between Russia and the West, especially the U.S. The author tries to study the factors responsible for creating the crisis and its consequences for Georgia's internal situation and great powers reactions as well as opportunities and challenges provided by it for Iran. The author believes that Russia's interest for preserving the former Soviet Union's military bases located in Georgia and Georgia's insistence on the withdrawal of Russian troops from these bases have been always a point of contention in relations between the two countries. Meanwhile, relations between Russia and the West had deteriorated due to the increasing influence of NATO in the periphery zone of Russia, epitomized by studying the membership of Georgia and Ukraine in NATO. He concludes that rivalry and tension between extra-regional powers in the Caucasus along with problems related to national and ethnic identity have contributed to the accumulation and continuation of crisis in the region.

The Caucasus in the last years of 20th century similar to those of 19th century, was the focal point of developments having deep consequences at the regional and international levels. Various ethnic crises emerged in the region during these years resulted from its vast ethnic diversity on the one hand, and rivalry between regional and extra-regional powers on the other hand. Meanwhile, Russia's hegemonic diplomacy in the region and the increasing importance of Caucasian energy in the global economy have aggravated security challenges in this region.

Relations between Iran and Russia during the post-Soviet era have created major concerns for the U.S. and some of Western great powers due to Russia's technological and political support of Iran's nuclear program and some military cooperation between the two countries. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, sometimes the U.S. has served to the consolidation of Iran-Russia relations, and sometimes it has prevented the establishment of ties in some areas between the two countries. But, it is evident that even in the most difficult situation, increasing tension in U.S.-Russia relations has not necessarily led to the strengthening and expansion of Iran-Russia relations, especially in strategic issues.

Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is a regional organization which was established at the beginning of the third millennium aimed at confidence-building among member countries, struggling against terrorism, religious extremism and separatism as well as confronting the U.S. unilateral hegemony in the international system. Its members are China, Russia, Central Asian countries (except for Turkmenistan). Iran, India, Pakistan and Mongolia have observer status in this organization. As SCO experienced a major dynamism in political, security and economic fields, the idea of establishing an "energy club" aimed at coordinating the policies of supply and demand, ensuring energy supply security, enhancing economic cooperation among member countries and adapting with new developments in the global economy was ratified in 2006 during the summit meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan. This article studies the most important opportunities and challenges facing SCO in realizing the idea of the establishment of an "energy club". The author uses a descriptive-analytical method and draws upon the theories of Cantori and Spiegel and those related to intergovernmentalism and neo-regionalism.

Following the Cold War, Russia gripped with tremendous economic and political problems, under these circumstances, the U.S. could easily expand its influence in the Middle East. During this period, Russia which involved in its economic reconstruction, adopted a foreign policy towards the region which was in line with the U.S. policies. This paved the way for Washington to further its goals in the region more easily. Although since the mid-1990s, Russia realized that preserving its influence in the "near abroad" depended on expanding ties with the countries such as Iran and Turkey, we did not observe any major confrontation between Moscow and Washington at that time. When Putin came to power, relations between the two countries were ameliorating, but the U.S. attack on Iraq faced this trend with some challenges, so that Russians realized that their domestic and regional security and power could be better safeguarded by adopting an independent stance vis-à-vis the U.S. For this reason, since than, the international system has witnessed independent and sometimes confrontational approaches taken by Kremlin regarding the White House policies towards the regions such as the Middle East.

Bodin, Montesquieu, Ratzel, and Lucien Febvre mentioned the impact of geography on historical and political treads. Geographical determinism means that geographical environment overshadows the destiny of people. One of the most important issues in geographical and historical fields as well as in political history is the boundaries of states and their security. Meanwhile, ethnic mosaic communities pose serious threats against the security of borders. Today, these communities exist in a vast geographical range extending from southwest Asia to Africa. Therefore, a proper understanding of political developments in Afghanistan is not possible without studying its ethnic geography and mosaic society.Afghanistan undergoes the crisis of ethnic geography. Centrifugal forces have begun to fight against the central government and against each other to maximize their power, this has resulted from geographical-ethnic situation of Afghanistan and its ethnic-cultural diversity. The lack of domestic authority has intensified the military conflicts between various ethnic groups. Also, the geographical situation of Afghanistan, which makes it a buffer state, has undermined the structure of the central government. In fact, geographical determinism imposes the status of a buffer state on Afghanistan. Today, we witness a "failed state" in Afghanistan resulting in ethnic confrontations and the collapse of its national sovereignty.

Power structure in the international system is changing. The fall in the power of some actors along with the increase in capabilities of others have entered the international system into a transition period. Given this process, different hypotheses on the future of international system have been put forth. Some argue that after the passage of several decades, the epicenter of power will move from Atlantic to Asia. Others believe that still there is an irremediable gap between the U.S. and emerging powers and the U.S. will remain the sole superpower in a foreseeable future. The article studies the process of power transition in the international system and existing hypotheses about its future.

Despite the fact that the European Union and Russia have common interests in terms of economic issues, their distinct identities and bad memories have led to a deep distrust between them. This has prevented them from building an institutionalized, well-defined and sustainable relationship. Meanwhile, the U.S. has always played a determining role in Russia-EU relations. This article tries to examine the impact of a likely new trend of transatlanticism on relations between Russia and the EU.

With the coming to power of Barack Obama, the democratic presidential candidate in the U.S., political observers predict that a new chapter will be opened in transatlantic relations. Given the new international situation, it is expected that the U.S. and the EU cooperate much closer to solve global problems and international crises. Particularly at the time that the U.S. needs more than any other time in the past to recover its lost prestige, it will be likely that it tends to adopt a multilateral approach. But the two sides face serious challenges in pursuing this way. This article tries to study transatlantic relations in Obama's era and to examine the most important issues facing the U.S. and the EU regarding political and security problems including disarmament, arms control, climate change, Russia, Arab-Israeli conflict, Iran and Afghanistan.

The U.S. presidential election in November 2008 led to the victory of Barack Obama who had based his electoral campaigns on the slogan of change. Since the beginning of electoral campaigns, a question raised in political circles about the feasibility of change in the U.S. policies. This article considering two variables of agent and structure, tests change and stability in the U.S. foreign policy and argues that in which areas and to what extent the slogan of change is more likely to materialize. Finally, against this backdrop, the future Iran-US relations is studied.

Democratization is a new concept with old origin, because it inevitably relates to the ancient notion of democracy. This article argues that democracies despite their similarity are native and particular experiences, thereby democratization should be studied from this standpoint. Every democratic experience should be logically understood in its own specifities. After that, we can present comprehensive and theoretical thoughts about them. The contents of democratic experiences (democratization) in the world in general and in Iran in particular, are independent of general definitions of democracy and the first could not be known through the latter. Because, democracy in its essence tends to expand individual potentialities in the framework of its own historical society and this involves particular and individual contents rather than universal and human ones.

Iraqi Al-Qaeda can be considered the most important non-governmental actor in Iraq, following the U.S. attack on this country. This group emerged as the most challenging group in opposing the political process in Iraq. It adopted a violent approach, but since 2007, it gradually began its downturn trend. This article tries to study the factors contributing to the rise and fall of Al-Qaeda in Iraq. Along these lines, the author first addresses the factors which contributed to the rise of this group and particularly increasing differences and conflicts among internal groups in Iraq as well as opposition made by Sunni groups. Then, while explaining the goals, strategies and performance of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, the author discusses the factors contributing to its weakness including reactions made by the majority of Sunni groups against it.

Today, communication and the role of public opinion and their impact on international events are more important than the past, therefore in studying events such as Iran's nuclear program, we cannot be indifferent to international views. In fact, the continuation of Iran's nuclear program forced Iranian officials to find some solutions for it and posed some questions about how this program transformed into a crisis. In examining the trend which led to the consensus of the Security Council against Iran, paying attention to media activities, statements made by officials of other countries and views of experts are of great importance. The combination of these factors forms the world public opinion orientation towards different issues including Iran's nuclear program. In addition to extensive media activities, the effectiveness of views expressed by experts on international trends is considered a determining factor. In this regard, we should emphasize that undoubtedly enhancing Iran's image among the world public opinion will create a major obstacle against forming a consensus by Westerners to impose sanctions against Iran.

Comparing Iran with other countries in terms of energy indices shows that we are not in a desirable situation. At the present time, the intensity of energy consumption in the country is 1/67 tonnes crude oil equivalent per 1000 dollars GDP, while this figure is 0/24 in the world and 0/1 in the developed countries. This unfavorable situation is also observed in marginal consumption levels as housing, transport, and industry sectors. The low price of energy carriers along with factors such as not using updated technology in productive firms, construction, agriculture and transport is responsible for the higher per capita energy consumption in Iran compared to the other developing countries. This article compares Iran's energy indices at the macro level with those of other countries based on the latest available data, and then at a micro level, indices in marginal sectors are calculated and a comprehensive economic analysis in each of them in comparison with the world average is presented. The results show that consumption management, reducing energy subsidies, and formulating consumption criteria are imperative for the country.