نشریه نظریه های نوین اقتصادی
سال دوم شماره 2 (بهار 1393)

This paper aims to explore the contribution of north and south FDI inflows to Iran and countries in the prospective document of future (countries in Southwest Asia including Central Asia and the Caucasus, the Middle East and neighboring countries of Iran). According to this document, in 1404, Iran should have the first place in economy and science in the region. Since FDI plays an important role in the economic growth, this paper compared the analysis of FDI inflows to Iran and other regional countries in the southwest Asia. In this paper, FDI inflows to these countries were analyzed and concentration index (Herfindahl-Hirschman) FDI inflow from the North to Iran and other countries in the region were calculated. Results show that Iran have 12th place in the FDI attraction in the region, hence more efforts are needed to improve the situation of Iran in the region.

In this study classical and fuzzy time series methods are employed in order to forecast crude oil price. Ultimately by checking out the error standard value, fuzzy time series determined as an appropriate model. It can be concluded that in the condition of few attainable data and uncertain situations, fuzzy time series model is able to obtain acceptable results for researchers (in comparison with ARIMA which needs more than 100 data to forecast). And it can combine with classical time series to reduce their constraint.

The purpose present paper will firstly explain and define human capital and then will estimate the relationship between health and education expenditures with economic growth in Iran and Middle East and North African countries by using panel data.
Regression Models. Our finding shows, there are relationship between human capital and economic growth in Iran and other selected countries.
According to the results coefficient of health and education are %32 and %42, the weaker connection between health cost and growth can be a warning for policy makers in making an efficient budget policy.

Economic structure based on oil resources and other structural problems, leading internal and external shocks as well as restriction of transaction trend with international, spread out on the country and caused the exposure to challenges and problems. In the study, we tried to use a framework that representing the country macroeconomic situation, canalized and significant impact of shocks due to sanction on macroeconomic indices and provide its outlook in short run. The model to use time series data 1343-91, estimates to econometric technical of ARDL. The results show that currency restriction due to sanction had significant effect on economic situation relatively, and caused economic gap to long run goals. In addition, projections show that economic growth outlook; consequently, unemployment rate will stay in high level. Furthermore, despite the inflation rate reduction, the indices will reach to 25%, and there have a tendency for exchange rate to be increased.

Level of geographic concentration and Condition of distribution and dispersion of generative activities and industrial firm's establishment in different regions is dependent to firm's decisions for locate in a special region. In this paper, we have paied to study for variation in trend of geographic concentration in industry of Iran between two years (1376- 1385) with measuring level of geographic concentration according to employment and add value by using the EG (Ellison and Glaeser) index, and then we have evalued impact of effective factors in this kind of concentration by a section model that, it is a kind of econometric model. Results of this measuring showed that geographic concentration in our industry is very important.Also we found that return to scale, relation between industries, average payable rights, they have significant and positive effect on index of geographic concentration.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of uncertainty in macro economy on government expenditure from Iran. Petroleum income fluctuations has been considered as indicators of uncertainty in macroeconomics. Uncertainty in petroleum income cause uncertain environment in income and therefore government for policy making and yearly budgeting will face with uncertain income environment This paper tries to use time series model during 1971-2008 years and general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity to measure uncertainty and then examines the impact of uncertainty in petroleum income on government expenditure by using ARDL procedure. The results of estimation of models indicate that uncertainty of petroleum income decrease government expenditure.

Risk assessment that usually is applied to identify, control and reduce the hazardous consequences, is a main stage of risk management and for dings it, different methods has been illustrated. In the studied of this area, most of those, are categorized risk assessment approaches into two approaches; deterministic and probabilistic with qualitative, quantitative and mixed (semi- quantitative) and are introduced each of the following methods. The studies show, there is not a single way, that is acceptable, to put a method in different group. Obviously, this issue will lead to ambiguity and confusion of risk assessors in finding optimal method. Investigating of this issue and finding an acceptable answer is the main purpose of this article.
In this paper, different criteria for selecting risk assessment methods have been introduced and explained. These criteria include the purpose of risk assessment in studied area, data collection methods, variable measuring scales, and finally, data analysis. Based on new criteria, the comprehensive algorithm for categorizing these methods presented. Examples of various risk assessment methods and their applications have been addressed.

The European call option prices have well-known formulae in the Cox-Ross-Rubinstein model, depending on the volatility of the underlying. Nevertheless it is hard to give a precise estimate of this volatility. S. Muzzioliand C. Toricelli handle this problem by using possibility distributions. In the first part of our paper we correct a number of mistakes found in theirwork. In the second part we present an alternative solution to the problem by performing a sensitivity analysis for the pricing of the option. This method isvery general in the sense that it can be applied if one describes the uncertaintyin the volatility by confidence intervals as well as if one describes it by fuzzy numbers.