پژوهشنامه بازرگانی
پیاپی 67 (تابستان 1392)

Electrical energy is one of the important inputs that is provided for consumers in Iran with a much lower price than the international price and a large share of subsidy payments is allocated. Therefore, in this study, the effects of gradual reduction of subsidies affecting electricity production based on macro indicators designed to measure a general equilibrium model (CGE) of Iran and using social accounting matrix (SAM) in 1380 in the form of four reduction scenarios 25, 50%, 75% and 100%, was evaluated. Consequently, production is reduced in all sectors. The electricity sector products and services sector show the most and the least decline respectively.

This paper provides a framework for evaluating the performance of regional trade agreements between Iran and trade partners considering favorable conditions expected for each member country according agreement’s goals. Performance evaluation consists of four stages. The first stage deals with introducing the variables and data table design. The second step is to calculate indices of trade liberalization, which includes four indicators of trade liberalization of capital goods, intermediate, consumer and raw materials. In the third stage of liberalization process and the final stage trade liberalization index is measured. The results of calculations are implemented in Cartesian coordinate. Performance evaluation of preferential trade agreement between Iran and Pakistan shows that although trade liberalization process was expanded in 2007 but has suffered a contraction in 2008. Other indicators also show the degree of commercial development agreement is still in under-developed stage. Therefore, for the effectiveness of preferential trade agreements in addition to tariff reductions and expanding range of goods subject to tariff reduction, efforts should be focused on the infrastructure facilities to trade and removing non-tariff barriers.

Enhancing the competitiveness in knowledge-based industries is critical for national economies of developing countries due to its direct role in creating the value-added and bringing in foreign exchange. Evaluating the export competitiveness of Iran's knowledge based products in multilateral trading system is a primary goal of this paper. The method used is based on shift-share market analysis whose indicator relies on the value of backward-looking (actual) export and import of Iran and all of its trade partners during 2000-08 based on HS tariff lines and ISIC classification. Findings indicate that Iran is competitive in just a limited number of such products in a global market with a value of $ b 1345.8, Iran is competitive in only 30 product which contstitute 25.7 percent of total value of global demand. If this situation continues, Iran will lose its market share. To increase Irans competitiveness in knowledge-based industries and enhance its position in regional and global trade, two key points should be addressed: 1. Extending the skills and innovation at national level. 2 Preparing the grounds for further use of advances in global technology through productive diplomacy and increased access to regional markets, absorption of foreign investment, and technology transfer.

The measurement of linkages constitutes the basis of evaluation in key sectors. However, considering conventional tables as the yardstick in the calculation of linkages, it is probable that investment in sectors with high forward and backward linkages which lead to an increase in the import, fails to bring about the expected dynamism on the economic level. In this direction and in order to show the outstanding role that the imports play in the measurements of the sectors, this paper makes an attempt to separate imports according to intermediate, consumption, and capital import using the disaggregated revised input-output tables prepared by Statistical Center of Iran in 1380 (the latest table that prepared by Statistical Center of Iran). After preparing tables with domestic transactions, domestic and conventional linkages are calculated based on traditional and new approach.The final results reveal the slight changes in the key sectors position from conventional into domestic status in the traditional approach. Changes in the sector's rankings in the new approach after eliminating imports of final demand components and intermediate transactions, show that 51% and 62.5% of service and agricultural sectors of the table can reach a relative higher position among the other sectors, considering domestic linkages; also, almost 48% of industrial sectors will decrease among other sectors.

Energy demand is mainly a function of own price, price of substitute energies, activity level of sectors, cost of materials and labor and capital, cost share of energy, elasticity of substitution parameters and households income. The main purpose of this paper is to measure the changes in energy demand after energy price increase and cash subsidy payment to households. We apply a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of Iran as a small open economy. The model is specialized in modeling energy market in Iran. We consider 7 energy goods; the discriminatory energy prices are considered between sectors; and energy markets are modeled to show how government controls the prices. The model is calibrated based on Energy Micro Consistent Matrix (EMCM) of Ministry of Energy. We found that Chemical Industry and Transportation Services face the highest reduction in sectoral energy demand. In the counterfactual scenario the relative price of electricity compared to other energies declines. Therefore electricity demand would increase in long run when compared to short run demand level. But as expected, the gasoil and fuel demand would decrease in long run.

Increasing prices of energy carriers are affecting in different channels the automobile industry, so the consequence of this policy requires the use of macro-oriented models. One of the most important models is social accounting matrix. But this matrix shows the final effect of economic shocks but the paths that creat these effects are not shown. Then structural path analysis is essential to find the most effective ways of increase in automobile prices. In this paper we use social accounting matrix for simulating the impact of increasing energy price on automotive industry. Results show this policy increased finish price of automotive industry by 15.5 percent. In addition, the results of structural path analysis (SPA) show that the indirect effects are much stronger than direct effects.So that, the direct effect of increasing the price of electricity, gasoline, gas oil, natural gas, kerosene and fuel oil on the automotive sector are respectively 10.36, 6.5, 5.05, 3.14,0.64 and 0.07 percent.

Skilled and motivated manpower, is considered the most important factor of development, and advancement of countries depends on attracting, training, keeping and usage of human resources and educated elite. Although many factors affect the brain drain, but closed economy and lack of the economic freedom in developing countries have significant effect on brain drain. In fact the weak economic structure and closed space in the above countries are major factors on brain drain. So in this study we investigated the effect of economic freedom on brain drain by panel data approach from selected G77 developing countries to the United States during the period of 1997-2009. Econometric results of this study show that economic freedom has negative and significant effect on brain drain of the above countries to the United States. Each of the components of the index of economic freedom, have negative and significant effect on brain drain separately. Unemployment rate for graduates of universities and accumulation of brain drain positively and significantly affect on brain drain in the studied countries. Human development index also has negative and significant effect on brain drain.

Trade liberalization is one of the policies which has been enforced in most of the countries and has some effects on women's employment, hence this research has been engaged to survey the relationship of trade liberalization & women's employment in Iranian manufacturing industries. This research has used the panel data method over the 1373-85 period and the classification industrial activities based on the two digits ISIC code (totally 104 observations). The results have confirmed that the trade liberalization is a window of opportunity for women's employment. The result showed that the ratio of the physical capital to the value added and the ratio of women's wage to men's wage has a negative relationship with the share of women's employment while the ratios of research and development, capital to the value added, exports to the value added and imports to the value added has a positive relationship with women's employment. In other words, women's labor has a complementary relationship with technological capital and has a substitution relationship with physical capital.