نشریه آینده پژوهی دفاعی
پیاپی 3 (زمستان 1395)

Confronting the threats of the upcoming wars requires recognizing the future battle scope and using all the capabilities and components of national power. In such a situation, joint operations can increase the efficiency and effectiveness of strategies and tactics by utilizing all available capacities. Today, one of the weaknesses of even the great armies of the world is logistics. In other words, this sector has not yet been able to improve its speed and flexibility than other sectors. The main issue in this study is the lack of an appropriate model of logistics in a joint regional command across the country in the future battle space. This research is an applied type that was conducted using a cross-sectional descriptive-analytical method. The statistical population of the study consisted of senior officers, experts and professors of military universities in the fields related to logistics, and the sample size was 78. The sample was selected using cluster sampling method and 13 subjects from the statistical population were selected for the interview. The reliability coefficient of the questionnaire was 0.779 and the researcher-made questionnaire was pre-test. The results of the research showed the appropriate relationship between joint regional command and logistic dimensions.

The development of human resources in military organizations is very important as one of the organizational development infrastructure. Therefore, this research was conducted to explain the human resource development requirements of military organizations and its implications for defense development. This research is applied in terms of purpose, and in terms of the method, is part of a futuristic exploratory research carried out in two phases (in the first phase by the Delphi method and in the second phase by a quantitative method). The statistical population of the first phase of the research (Delphi) was to identify the indicators of 20 experts in the field of human resources of military organizations that were selected by targeted method. The statistical population of the second stage of the study was 156 experts from military organizations that were selected by using Morgan table based on four classes in proportional stratified sampling. To analyze the data in two stages, qualitative and quantitative analysis method has been used. The results of the research showed that the requirements for human resource development were determined in four dimensions: individual, organizational, managerial and environmental requirements, and a positive and significant correlation of 0/726 between the requirements for human resource development and defense development.

Policy-making in the field of entrepreneurship is uncertain according to its dependence on environmental elements for its success. Strategic entrepreneurship and future studies provide the methodology needed to better understand this uncertainty and can help organize and direct more successful entrepreneurial policies. Meanwhile, we need to identify a successful macroeconomic model in this field. Therefore, it is attempted to create these principles based on the practice of holy defense entrepreneurship with a future study approach. Entrepreneurial actions during the holy defense are full of experiences that can be used to emerge factors that lead us to many strategic issues, as well as the development of an entrepreneurial development strategy based on a native model. The purpose of this study is to model and explain the role and functions of strategic entrepreneurship in holy defense. This research, based on the purpose is applied research, In terms of the nature is case and field study, it has a qualitative approach in terms of the data, and has been used a combination of documentary methods (library studies) and interviews with experts to collect data. In order to analyze the data, the "Grounded Theory" method has been used with Strauss and Corbin's "systematic design" approach. The analysis of data is in three stages of open, axial and selective coding that resulted in the identification of components in the form of a paradigmatic model consisting of a central category (carrying out entrepreneurial actions in the holy defense), causative conditions, strategies, ground conditions, results, outcomes, and category.

In today's world, budgeting is an effective tool for the proper management of the state and the public sector. The awareness of managers and decision-makers in micro and macro levels from the new approaches of budgeting, besides rational usage of resources, provides appropriate substrate for growth and efficiency in governmental organizations. Furthermore, this prevents profusion of public property, follows fair distribution of financial resources, besides improving efficiency. The current study was done in order to identify and prioritize the factors influencing futurology on budgeting of I.R.I Army by using group analytical hierarchy process method. The methodology used was survey-descriptive, applied and cross-sectional. The population consisted of twenty experts who were retired from armed forces in I.R.I Army and were experienced in the field of futurology and budgeting management. They were required to fill up the paired comparison questionnaires. The instrument used was Expert Choice11 software. The results showed that, among the five factors influenced the futurology of budgeting in defense organizations, future economic trends with relative importance (weight) of 0.383 are in the first priority, future technology trends with the relative importance of 0.264 are in the second priority, top document's orientation with the relative importance of 0.157 are in the third priority, organizational strategic management approaches with relative importance of 0.112 are in the fourth priority, and identification of potential threats and injuries with relative importance of 0.084 are in the fifth priority.

The defense sector is one of the key sectors of Iran that has devoted an important part of the total public spending. Any effort for forecasting the future defense expenditure trend is of special importance for policy-makers of defense sector. In this paper, we specified a defense expenditure model relying on theoretical basics in order to obtain desirable forecasts. On the basis of three forms of linear, exponential and quadratic equations and using theoretical foundations in the field of defense expenditure function, we used genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm to simulate Iranians defense expenditure during 1959-2012. Then we selected the superior model in terms of prediction power criteria and forecast consumption until 2025. Based on the results obtained, it can be said that the defense cost function simulated by the PSO algorithm with exponential form is more compatible with the structure of Iran and therefore, it has been selected to predict expenditures from the sample until 2025. The predicted results also indicate that defense spending in Iran will increase with a relatively moderate slope by 2025.

There are many factors to succeed in defending the country with regard to the conditions and characteristics of future wars; A brief overview of the wars that have taken place in recent decades suggests the use of various forces under a single, integrated command. The main objective of this research is to develop a proper model of the regional joint command based on future threats, which was done by a descriptive-analytical method with a mixed approach. The statistical society of the experts includes experts, military or retired military experts and specialists in joint operations planning. The general statistical population includes generals, commanders and senior officers working in the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, with at least a master's degree. In order to determine the studied community, some documents, sources and opinions of experts were collected. After determining the indicators and subcategories, the questionnaire was adjusted and data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Finally, with the final analysis of the results, a joint regional command pattern based on future threats was presented.