نشریه آینده پژوهی دفاعی
پیاپی 6 (پاییز 1396)

Global threats of terrorism, drug-smuggling, and other crimes cause to increase the need to deploy limited security resources to maximize their effectiveness. Prediction of future actions and reviewing all the possible strategies of the attackers has a great influence on the success in the battle. Game theory is one of the techniques of futures studies. This paper examines security games in a fuzzy environment. The security games consider encounter model of a defender and several types of attackers. The aim of this paper was providing a method to compute optimal strategy of defender in the conditions of uncertainty. Modeling security threats of centers of public transportation was described. The Bayesian approach was used to solve the uncertainty of encounter a defender with unknown attacker type, and fuzzy theory was used to resolve the uncertainty issue due to ambiguity in understanding the experts and their inadequate judgment. After presenting the model, the problem was written as crisp using α-cuts of fuzzy numbers. Finally, the obtained model was reviewed and its role in the future studies of security threats was addressed, and the validity of the proposed method for an applied sample was examined.

According to the Imam Khamenei guidelines for Islamic-Persian model of development and after introducing the macro-policies of self-efficacy in security and defense, it’s necessary to identify the science and technology development trend and implementation. This article is to introduce the policy implications for future-oriented defense culture implementation according to Islamic-Persian model of development based on Imam Khamenei guidelines. This inductive and qualitative research is based on grounded theory strategy that introduces the main dimensions and policy implications of future-oriented defense culture. The result showed that paying attention to the essential of modelling and taking into account a systematic and operational approach is necessary. In this model, continuous improvement and social capital is considerable.

With the changes that have taken place in the main actors and actors of the wars, the methods of fighting have also changed. Therefore, the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran as the main defense and security pillars in the country, in the present and future should maintain their defensive and deterrent capacity and strengthen the internal construction of their power. Therefore, this research has been conducted with the aim of explaining the strength of the internal construction of the future armed forces using the orders of the Supreme Allied Commander. This research, using the method of thematic analysis, presented four concepts: "lettered, revolutionary, knowledgeable, spiritual and hardworker manpower ", "Sacrifice based education system", "Military Power with Knowledge Edge Technologies", "The alliance of all people, officials and elites".

  This paper aims to identify the components and characteristics of the nature of the joint operation in formulating the joint operation doctrine in one of the military organizations of Iran. This applied-developmental research has been done by descriptive method with mixed (quantitative / qualitative) approach. The research community is the relevant documents and journals, and interviews with experts. The statistical population of this study was selected from top military officials. Due to the specific feature of the research, the sample size is equal to the size of the community, so total population sampling was done. The findings of this research showed that the internal factors of joint operations affecting the pattern of the joint operation doctrine (including one dimension, three components and nine indicators) adequately determine the indicators necessary for the "nature of joint operations" to specify the pattern of the joint operation doctrine of a military organization.

Human resource management in future organizations requires the use of a set of human resources management functions appropriate to the organization's specific goals. In this regard, after identifying the most important future command capabilities and identifying the most effective human recourses processes on the development of these capabilities through the Delphi method, the impact of effective human resource processes, including continuous development processes, organizational learning, targeted human resource development, predictive performance management and knowledge management on the growth and enhancement of future command capabilities, including the ability to network, the ability to create high-quality information, agility,flexibility, and the integration of processes, was investigated through the use of CCA (Canonical Correlation Analysis).The results of the research, confirming the existence of a significant relationship and growth dependence and enhancing future command capabilities to human resource planning, determined the degree of dependence of future command capabilities to each human resource process; thus, a basis for using human resources processes to grow and enhance future command capabilities was created.

Rapid and wide-ranging environmental changes have challenged traditional systems of strategy making, and strategic foresight has been increasingly welcomed by organizations due to flexibility against alternative futures. This research seeks to develop the process of creating strategy in strategic foresight based on the opinions of the military experts of the Islamic Republic of Iran and is a developmental research in terms of purpose. The overall research method is qualitative. First, based on the analysis and interpretation of literature and research background some steps presented to prioritize strategic options in strategic foresight. Then, with the help of Delphi technique, the validity of the list of provided steps was tested. The scientific and applied acceptance of all the steps and their general goodness of fit confirmed by the convergence of academic and military experts in Delphi's second phase. In the end, based on the presented steps, it had been suggested to commanders and strategist of the military to use this method to prioritize strategic options in the process of creating strategy for military units. The innovation of this research is to provide a way to select the ultimate strategy in strategic foresight, which, with a time-integrated approach, evaluates and prioritizes strategic options simultaneously in three short, medium, and long-term horizons. In this way, in addition to the "outcomes of each option" and "the probability of collecting those outcomes", "synchronization of options" and "outcomes time", are also intertwined in the prioritization of options.