فصلنامه تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی
پیاپی 38 (پاییز 1394)

Urban form can be affected by diverse factors in different times. Socio- economic, political and physical factors are among the main contributors. So, one of the most important challenges of urban planners is measuring and identifying urban development pattern in order to direct and strengthen it to sustainable pattern and right direction. The case study of the present paper is the city of Yazd, a middle-sized city in the center of Iran, and the studied years are 1975, 1987, 2000 and 2010. To achieve the main objective of the paper, measuring Yazd growth and expansion by spatial metrics, it has used remote sensing data and satellite imageries and ArcGIS software. The conclusion revealed that in four periods of study, complexity or irregularity of the urban patch shapes has increased, centrality or average distance of the dispersed parts to the city center has decreased, compactness or the number and area of patches their distance from each other has decreased, porosity or ratio of open space has increased and finally population density of city has decreased in a large amount. Therefore, all perimeters show that the temporal - spatial form of Yazd has moved from compact to sprawl. Due to many undesired impacts of urban sprawl, urban planners and authorities are required to use adherent techniques and policies to control urban sprawl and to direct it toward more sustainable directions.

In this study, the predicted monthly temperature and rainfall data from HadCM3 model (base period, 1972-2001) and next period (2011-2040) under A2emission scenario were used to investigate the impacts of climate change on runoff variations in the Kor river basin. HadCM3 model output was downscaled based on a temporal downscaling approach (Change Factor) and spatial downscaling approach (Proportional) for the basin. The time series of monthly temperature and precipitation were produced in future period. The results showed that temperature and rainfall will increase and decrease in the future period relative to the base period, respectively. Then, the calibrated IHACRES model was used to model rainfall-runoff relationships in the Kor river basin. Then, the downscaled monthly temperature and rainfall time series in next period were employed to rainfall-runoff model and the monthly runoff time series were simulated for period 2011- 2040. The comparison of future period runoff relative to observed period showed that the annual runoff in the basin for period 2011-2040 will decrease about 9٫43% with respect to base period.

Presentation of generalized theory in international relation is one of the purposes of thinker in this major. But, Knowledge of international relations during their classic life has always been dealing with various topics, nature and origin. So, with this very different content, theorizing in this field has been difficult. In other words, subjects of studies in the science of international relation such as war, diplomacy, and international and regional organizations.... often are too unique. So, the nature and origins of international relation is very difficult for presentation of theoretical theory. In this regard, after world war (II) numerous theories and schools have been emerged in the international relation that whichever could explain and theorize partly of incident in international relation.The main goals of this article is presenting of philosophical theory. So, in this paper in the first stage with reply on analytical and explanation approach, have been struggled were cleared geopolitics theoretical and conceptual framework. Finding research reveals that especially after cold war it is possible for presentation of geopolitical theory that could explain current and future incident in international relation. Generally, the most important areas by its capacity could determine success of state and political actors in the making of their national interest in international relation. Thus enjoy the basis and Foundation of the foreign policy of the countries and their leaders focused on the policies of the geopolitical campaign.

Today religious and cultural tourism in its specialized concept, beyond dependence on time and spare time as an important factor in human geography has led to the formation of travel and and cultural landscape and concentration and found its place within the world tourism. in the meantime, profiting from native cultures and folklore, local and religious rituals as the examples of cultural-religious tourism are significant factors of coping with boredom and back to oneself as its effects and significance have gradually created a new branch called religious-cultural tourism. The present study suggests the presupposition that attractions of the destinations and it tries to show a remarkable ritual or tradition in SavadKuh Mazandaran,the dead day festival and its effect in tourism development of SavadKuh area.The study is descriptive analytic and the data were collected by questionnaires, interviews and observation. The study results obtained by Chi-square test, Spearman test, Phi and crammer correlation coefficient show that in spite of the weakness of facilities and accomodations,the ritual under study has a significant role in presenting and introducing the religious culture of SavadKuh region and it can be a suitable opportunity for the full development of the tourism in the region of the study.

This study mainly aims to investigate trends of the number of days with thunder storms throughout Iran. To accomplish so, the observed data for present weather codes of thunderstorms (codes 17, 29, and 99-91) at the main synoptic hours in 50 synoptic stations during the 35years period (1979-2013) are used. After extraction of the present weather codes of thunderstorms, especial quality control procedures are applied to data; therefore, noisy data were excluded from the time series data and the time series values related to the annual frequency of thunderstorm occurrences of each station are obtained. Then, to determine the overall condition of the thunderstorm in the studied stations, a distribution diagram is drawn to demonstrate the days with thunderstorms. T-test and Kendall test are employed to investigate the whole process and its significance. Also, the Pettitt and Mann-Kendall (MK) tests are conducted to find mutations in the frequency of thunderstorm occurrences and, later, the significance is acquired using the Mann-Whitney test (for single mutation) and the Kruskal-Wallis test (multi-mutation). The Iran’s annual thunderstorm distribution diagram are concentrated in the northern and northwestern parts of the country.The results indicate an increasing trend in the number of days with thunderstorm in 39 stations and a decrease in 11 stations accordingly. Besides, the linear least squares method is employed to calculate the trend values; then, the total amount of the annual trend is demonstrated in terms of percentage of the average annual thunderstorm.The results show that the maximum amount belongs to Kashan and Yazd’s stations, both located in the margin of Iran’s central desert. In other words, the maximum positive variability comparing to the long-term average occurred in these two cities. To monitor the first occurrence of mutations along the longitude and latitude, the first mutation occurrence is mapping using the Kriging method in areas with significant mutations. The results indicate that the variations are greater along latitude rather than longitude.

Participation, in the development context, is a process through which all members of a community or organization are involved in and have influence on decisions related to development activities that will affect them. That implies that development projects will address those community or group needs on which members have chosen to focus, and that all phases of the development process will be characterized by active involvement of community or organization members. This study is aimed to analyze the role of educational capacity building on the rural people participation in developmental activities by the method of survey studying, so this is an analytical- descriptive study. The methodological approach of this study employed an analytical Method (co relational study). The study population consists of rural people living in rural areas (29 villages) of Benab County. (n=400) by using proportionate stratified random sampling method. Sample size was determined based on the Cochran’s formula and the required data were collected through questionnaires. Content validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by professors and experts and its reliability was determined based on Cronbach's alpha (0.92). For data analysis, SPSS software was used. The results indicated that there are significant relationships between all such as (educational capacity utilization rate of consulting, education and reading) and the participation of villagers in developmental activities.

In the recent decade, the southern coastal of the Caspian Sea is frequently facing dust hazards. This research attempts to identify the original source of dust generation that causes dust transmission to the southern coastal of the Caspian Sea in 19th and 20thof September 2014, and analyze the atmospheric circulation that leads to the emission of dust into this area. Therefore, Implementation of the HYSPLIT backward Lagrangian model is used, for determining the origin and direction of dust flow, the chemical atmospheric model (WRF-Chem) is applied to determine the concentration and distribution of dust, and to simulate the system’s pattern. The results indicate anew source of the dust in the eastern part of the Caspian Sea and across the deserts of Turkmenistan and Qara-Qum. The main cause of this dust event is the formation of thermal cyclone on the warm area in the eastern part of the Caspian Sea. Surface convergence due to cyclonic circulation of the low pressure and also dry desert coverage, caused dust transfer into the atmosphere column.Negative components of U-wind and V-wind at 10m height and increase in wind speed due to the intensified pressure gradient over the desert in the east of the Caspian Sea; lead to the formation of the Northeastern streams (Westward) and dust emission into the southern coast of the Caspian Sea. The Monitoring of Visible images from MODIS sensor and zoning of AOD confirms the results of numerical simulations in dust transformation to the northern slope of the Alborz Mountains.

Global warming has been associated with the changes of the pattern of the spatial-timing of temperature. Therefore, changes and fluctuations of this element have a scientific and practical importance. One of the approaches to examining the temperature variations is the use of statistical methods. Climatologists for the investigation of temperature variations use the time series methods. The main purpose of this study was to investigate the annual temperature changes of Tehran's station by using time series. For this purpose, the statistical data from the period of 1951-2008 were used. The results showed that in the spectral analysis with the confidence level of .95, cycles of 1, 21, and 22 were significantly observed. The annual temperature time series of the station also indicates the rising trend. Then, modeling in the family of polynomials also showed that the pattern of the temperature line of Tehran over the past 55 years has increased (.72±.08). Also, using a Markov chain estimated the possibility of change in situations from the cold year to hot year and vice versa 2.2 and 1.82, respectively. In other words, every 2.2 years a cold year and every 1.82 years, a warm year occurs. Finally, in the Arima modeling, after examining the Akaike value, the model of (1, 1, and 0) was selected as the most appropriate.

Climate change has serious direct and indirect consequences on crop production and food security. The objective of this study is the simulation of future climate on rice phenology under different water-management practices in Caspian Sea area. The used data for this research includes the meteorological, soil and crop management data. Meteorological data include the collection of daily data of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, solar radiation and precipitation during 1981-2010 and monthly temperature and precipitation of global climate models during 1971-2000. The Soil and product management data have obtained from field experiment in the Iranian Rice Research Institute in Rasht, from 2006 to 2007. The stochastic weather generators (Lars-WG) are used for downscaling of global climate models outputs. Future climate has been done using of MPEH5 under scenarios of SRA1B, SRA2 and SRB1. CERES-Rice model was used for simulating of rice phenology in three irrigation regimes. Under climate change scenarios, Simulation results reveal that minimum and maximum temperature will increase and total precipitation will decrease during the rice-growing season. The panicle initiation day, a thesis day and physiological maturity day will shorten with temperature increase in the future. Also, the beginning of rice phenology will decline with temperature increase above 1˚C even in continuous submergence.

The average annual rainfall in Iran is about 250 millimeters that is the small than one third of the average annual rainfall of the world. Imbalanced and non-uniform distribution of the low rainfall also increases the rainfall uncertainty in the country. In this study, rainfall uncertainty index (UI) based on statistical data from 48 synoptic stations in a period of 30 years from 1979 to 2008 has been investigated. In UI index, contrary to other methods, rainfall regime or temporal distribution and characteristics of rainfall are considered. The trend and significant status in each station through Mann Kendall and Sen.’s Slope Estimate non-parametric tests and at the 95% confidence interval has been determined. Finally, based on index values obtained, the country’s is classified in different zones using IDW and Kriging interpolation methods. The results show that the average rainfall uncertainty in Iran is equal to 2.2, or about 36%. The level of rainfall uncertainty in humid areas – where rainfall starts earlier and rainfall season is longer – is more, and in arid regions – where rainfall begins later and rainfall season is shorter – is less. However, unlike the results of other works rainfall uncertainty in Caspian humid region and semi-humid North West region of Iran in in high level. In contrary, the lowest level of rainfall uncertainty belongs to dry southern coastal region of Iran. However, Except the Bandar Length station which has an upward slope of 0.04 in a year, no significant trend weren’t observed in other stations.