فصلنامه اقتصاد مقداری
سال نهم شماره 4 (پیاپی 35، زمستان 1391)

The aim of this study is to investigate the short-run asymmetric effect of gini coefficient, unemployment and divorce on the prior period robbery, using Error Correction Smooth Transition Model for the Period 1984-2012. For this purpose, at first we investigate data constant and long-run relationship using Engel and Granger hypothesis. The results show that non-linear model has higher explanatory power than the linear model, so that the change in the gini coefficient and unemployment of prior period on the current period's robbery in middle and high threshold for both variables have the greatest effect. However, for divorce cases, based on the results of the three thresholds, there is a positive effect on robbery, though, in high threshold it has the greatest effect.

Identifying the comparative advantage of economic activities in different areas, especially in the free trade zones, makes it possible for local and foreign investors to allocate resources optimally. Therefore, given the importance of the industry in the expansion of non-oil exports in Iran, this study has tried to, using the Location Quotient and Domestic Resource Cost Indexes beside factor analysis and numerical taxonomy techniques, identify investment priorities of industry sector in line with creating a free trade zone in Bushehr province in the years of 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2010. The results indicate that, the province in 2005 has comparative advantage in the construction activities of other non-metallic mineral products. But in 2007 comparative advantage has not been seen in any of the activities. According to the industry experts view this occurred due to the economic downturn in Iran, and shows the importance of macroeconomic variables in the regional economic functions.

In this paper causality between foreign direct investment and economic growth analyzed by 86 countries data from 1980 to 2012. We applied panel data granger non-causality and compare heterogamous and homogenous method results. In homogenous causality test, there is no causality between economic growth and FDI but in heterogeneous causality test null hypothesis of no causality, rejected in both directions. This result indicates that there is causality relationship in subset of countries.

In this paper, the decision of the school children (10 – 18 years old) and child labor (10 – 14 years old) for their education and employment is investigated using Probit Approach through two decision equations. The relevant data was extracted from the Household Budget Statistics of urban society of Iran in 2011. The results, for both school children and child labor show that while boys with higher levels of education are more likely to continue their education, they are less motivated to apply for a job. Further, the boys whose level of education are relevant to their ages are more likely to continue their education; however, the boys who have not succeeded to study based on their ages are more interested to apply for a job. Both school children and child labor in families with higher education are more motivated to higher education than getting a job. Boys and girls whose mothers have a job are more willing to work than continuing their stuy. As a whole, boys are more likely to quit schoole and seek for a job. School children and child labor with illiterate parents or primary school level are more likely to seek a job rather than continuing their study.

Knowledge about household expenditure profile in different ages of generations and investigating changes of their expenditures over time, have always been an important economic issue of household welfare during lifetime. In this paper, the expenditure profileof young men in Life cycle theory is examined. Todo that, typical pattern data building pseudo-panel is desined. The pattern is designed by combining data from cross-sectional household budget of families in generations in the years 1990 to 2011 are tracked.The results show that the newer generation has the lowest consumption. Furthermore, while the generasions getting younger, the consumption difference between then is lessen than the previous generations. The age effect shows the lowest level consumption occurs in age 21andhousehold consumption expenditure increase with age increasing. Further, time effect showsthe amount of increase in consumption in the second decade (between 2001 and 2011) is more than the amount consumed in the first decade (1991 to 2001).

The main objective of this paper is to modeling and forecast exportsing of seafood in Iran. For this purpose, the method of collective self-explanatory time series moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural networks are used. To perform the study, monthly data for the period of 1995:05 to 2008:02 estimated from model training period 2009:03 to 2011:02 data to verify the predictive power of the model. In this study, several criteria including Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Square Error (MSE), Average Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Root Mean Square Normalized Error (NRMSE) were used. The results show better performance of the neural network predicted non-linear statistical model ARIMA models and neural network structures studied neural networks Radial Basis Function (RBF) has the best performance in terms of error functions. Finally, for the two years 2012 and 2013 the amount of Iranian seafood export is predicted.