فصلنامه اقتصاد مقداری
سال دهم شماره 1 (پیاپی 36، بهار 1392)

In Iran، bank interest rate is determined by Central Bank، thus، due to high inflation rates، real interest rate becomes negative. This in turn leads to financial repression. In this research، based on Mackinnon and Shaw’s view، the effect of bank loans interest rate on the investment and production of Iran is examined. To do that، first، a DSGE model for the economy of Iran was calculated. This model includes four parts: household، firm، trading banks، both government and Central Bank. The results indicate that an increase in interest rate has increased bank deposits while investment، bank credits and GDP are reduced. Thus the increase of bank interest rate is led to reduction of economic growth of Iran. Thus، Mackinnon and Shaw ۥs Theory is rejected in Iran’s economy.

This paper examines the relationship between financial development، economic growth and energy consumption in Iran. Many papers have used various indicators for financial development. In this study، we have tried to examine the effect of all indicators of financial development on energy consumption using BAND ARDL، Based on Unrestricted Error Correction Model (UECM)، (Pesaran، Shin and Smith، 2001) and TODA-YAMAMOTO test (1995) for the period of 1976-2010. The findings show that various indicators such as the ratio of allocated credits to the private sector to GDP، M2، the ratio of stocks traded to the trading volume of stocks markets and economic growth، have a long run relationship with energy consumption. Further، the findings confirm the unilateral causality from financial development and economic growth to energy consumption.

Performance analysis and information of industries’ technology are important for economic and industrial planners. Cement industry has great role in economic growth of a country. In this research the situation of monopoly and technological changes in Fars Cement Company are studied based on return to scale and economies of scale. To do that، the Translog cost function and Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) during the period of 2002:1-20012:12 and the seasonal data are used. According to parts of the results، due to the existence of increasing returns to scale and economies of scale، natural monopoly in the factory has not been rejected. Furthermore، according to the advancement of technology، the advancement of technology in this industry has been associated with lower costs.

Systematic risk refers to the possibility of a collapse of an entire financial system or market. After 2008 financial crisis، a significant amount of effort has been directed to the study of systemic risk and its consequences around the world. In this paper with this assumption that larger and stronger markets influence smaller ones، a model inspired by catalytic chemical model is proposed. In chemical reactions، reagents with higher concentrations tend to favor their conversion to products. In order to modulate the conversion process، catalyzers may be used. In this work a mathematical modeling is proposed with bases on the catalytic chemical reaction model. China and India indices of strong markets are taken as being analogous to the concentration of reagents and the indices of smaller markets as (Iran) concentrations of products. The role of catalyst is to model the degree of influence of one index on another. The results show markets influence of china and India stock markets on Iran stock markets is low.

As the Current account balance and government budget balance are important macroeconomic variables، the relationship between them have been one of the main questions of Macroeconomic researchers over the past three decades. Therefore، the main objective of this paper is to examine empirically the relationship between budget and current account deficits. Using panel data of 50 developing countries over the period of 1990-2012، three econometrics methods (Error Components Two-Stage Least Squares، System Generalized Method-of-Moments and Dumitrescu-Hurlin granger causality test) have been employed in this study. The results showed that the twin deficit hypothesis is valid for developing countries. Therefore، due to the adverse effects of budget and current account deficits، it is suggested that developing countries can increase taxes to achieve stable revenue sources for financing the budget deficit، and to reduce their own instability and current account deficit.

The purpose of this research is to investigate the Linder theory in BRICS countries applying different exchange rate arrangements. Using the Generalized Gravity Model and a Two-Step Method of Moments، Generalized System of (GMM)، 5 countries have been selected for the period of 2001-2013 for this study. Common unit root tests for dynamic panel data، Sargan and serial correlation (M2) were applied in order to evaluate stationary of variables، no correlation between the instruments and stochastic terms and limits of generalized moments. The results showed that using free floating exchange rate arrangement had no significant effects on bilateral trade in selected countries. Managed floating exchange rate arrangement had significan and negative effects while pegged and crawling pegged had positive effects on bilateral trade. The Linder hypothesis was significant and confirmed by applying different exchange rate arrangements in regional trade cooperation.