فصلنامه اقتصاد مقداری
سال دوم شماره 3 (پیاپی 6، پاییز 1384)

The role of export in economic development of countries, particularly its effect on GDP in the recent decades, has increasingly become the interest of economists. Using time-series of the period 1963-2000 and Engel-Granger as well as Error Correction Method (ECM), the relationship between Oil export (OX), non-oil export (NOX), gross domestic production (GDP) and gross domestic non-oil production (GDNOP) are estimated. The employed model is taken from Salvatoreh and Hater’s model in which the independent variables including export (oil and non-oil separately), labor force, capital are the proportion of industrial export to the import of middle goods (as an index of industrialization). Results reported that one percent increase in NOX will, in the long-run, bring about 0.01 percent and 0.09 percent increase in GDP and GDNOP respectively, and one percent growth of OX will increase the mentioned variables up to 0.012 and 0.08 percent respectively. Also, the estimation regarding the short run models indicates that one percent increase in the growth rate of OX will increase the growth rates of GDP and GDNOP up to 0.13 and 0.05 respectively in the same year, and it will increase the growth rate of GDNOP up to 0.06 percent in the following year, 0.08 percent in the two following years and the growth rate of GDP up to 0.06 percent with a two-year lag. The short run results do not indicate any significant relationship between NOX and GDP.

Using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), this paper examines the relationship between non-oil exports and employment during 1338-1379 period. Results of Granger causality test indicate that employment is Granger cause of non-oil exports, but non-oil exports is not Granger cause of employment. Estimation of long-run relation between non-oil exports, employment and GDP without oil shows no significant relation between non-oil exports and employment. But GDP without oil has a significant and positive impact on employment. In estimated error correction equation for employment, two variables of oil exports and export promotion strategy are significant. Results based on sectorial investigation confirm a long-run relationship between employment and exports only in Industrial and Mine Sectors. In addition, estimated adjustment coefficient in this sector has a value of 0.23 which in contrast to its value in the whole economy (0.03) shows much higher speed of adjustment toward long-run equilibrium.

Having presented an analysis of the relationship between foreign trade and a methodological approach of the utility of production factors as well as its influencing factors in industrial divisions in Tehran, this paper aims at presenting the relationship among trading direction, the utility growth of production factors in industries and the growth of industrial productions in Tehran province. Measured in this paper are the effects of the variables of export development and import replacement for each section, wherein due to the export leap of the industrial unit (i.e. the increase of the share of export in output growth of the industrial unit), the utility of production factors will have a greater growth. This is also true with the industrial sub-sections of the province. The share of the variable of export growth in the industrial output growth does not affect the increase of the total utility growth of production factors in industrial sub-sections, wood production section, wood products, printing and publishing sections and the related industries, production of miscellaneous products from oil and coal, oil refineries, production of scientific and measurement control tools, and visual goods. This is due to the insignificant amount of export in these sections during the recent years, and the internality of consumption market of the products of these sections which leads to the opposite effect of export growth of that section on the utility growth of production factors.

In some last centuries, hand knotted carpet has been one of the main items of non- oil exports, and always have absorbed at least 20 percent of non- oil exports. In regard to carpet industry capacity in employment and non-oil exports, its expansion has considerable importance. Exports development needs a deep analysis of export process in three stages, production, export and demand. In production field, the care to production factors and having absolute and relative advantages in production of some goods is very important. In export field, factors such as marketing, packing, transportation, insurance should be considered and the suitable export policy regarding to any commodity characteristics should be taken. In demand field, price and income elasticities are considerable. In this research, first we review empirical studies in non- oil exports specially carpet production and export and then carpet exports from demand view will be analyzed. The major purpose of this research is investigation of carpet exports from demand view. By examining of export demand literature, suitable model of carpet export demand for period of 1350-1380 was determined Then, stationry and non- stationary tests of variables were implemented and model was estimated using OLS method (by Eviews package). This model specifies the effect of carpet price, importers income and exchange rate changes on carpet exports earnings. Estimated results show that carpet is a luxury and inelastic commodity. In other word, Carpet price rise will increase exports earnings, too. Moreover, by main considerations in carpet production, more luxury and high quality carpets in concentrated workshops should be knotted. On the other hand, nominal exchange rate incresase in regard to carpet inelastic being will decrease exports earnings.

The relationship between trading and economic growth has long been discussed in the literature of economics. This paper aims at investigating the relationship between export (total & non-oil) and economic growth in the economy of Iran. Granger’s causalty method with its different approaches such as VAR, Hsiao, Toda and Yamamoto are used in this paper. The studied period is between 1959-2003. The results show that there exists a mutual relationship between non-oil export and economic growth in Iran. That is, economic growth causes an increase in the amount of export, and export, in return, causes an increase in economic growth. However, there is a one-way relationship between the total export and economic growth; that is, economic growth leads to an increase in the amount of export but the reverse relationship is not true.