فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار)
سال دهم شماره 2 (تابستان 1389)

The aim of this paper is twofold. It first investigates the demand for international reserves using panel data for 32 developing countries during the period 1975 – 2004. To this end, an Error Correction Model (ECM) approach is employed to estimate the empirical model and then a capital asset pricing model (CAMP) is used to determine the composition of the foreign exchange reserves. A dummy variable is included in the model to consider the effect of changing exchange rate system on the demand and the composition of international reserves. The results show that there is a negative relationship between exchange rate flexibility and the demand for international reserves.

The natural disasters decrease the savings through reducing the government savings rate. However, the resultant disasters effect on total savings depends on the private savings changes. In this paper, the impact of natural disasters on total savings is estimated using the data over the period 1973-2006. An Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) technique is used to estimate the empirical model. The results confirm that natural disasters raise the average propensity to savings in Iran. Moreover, the coefficient of error correction term indicates that 69 percent of the disequilibrium is corrected immediately, i.e. in the next year.

Markowitz's model which determines the weight of each stock in the portfolio is based on the optimal choice of stocks in order to maximize the expected returns. However, this theory through paying special attention to the concept of total risk reaches to an efficient frontier which undoubtedly the portion of unsystematic risk that the market doesn’t reward will not stand in the minimum level. Besides, Sharpe’s theory presents a model using some simplifying assumptions which attains a new efficient frontier in which although the concept of systematic risk governs it, its fundamental defect will absolutely be applying market portfolio in the case of investing. This article aims to combine the theories of Markowitz and Sharpe to introduce a new model. This new model is much better and more efficient in comparison to Markowitz’s efficient frontier. Moreover, it reforms the exiting defect in Sharpe’s model The superiority of proposed model over Markowitz and Sharpe's traditional models from the view point of theory is definitely proven through paying attention to unsystematic risk, eliminating some assumptions of the traditional models and finally through finding the optimal portfolio of stocks for large cement corporations in Tehran stock exchange market.

The objective of this paper is to analyze entrepreneurship in Iran. More specifically, it focuses on the introduction of the entrepreneurial aspects of the 16th famous Iranian entrepreneur and evaluates his performance. To this end, we study the performance of late Mustafa Ali Nasab as a distinguished entrepreneur. We describe the main characteristics of the entrepreneur through analyzing the productivity performance of his two firms including oil and gas industry. The findings confirm that following his passing, the productivity of the firms is significantly decreased.

The World in the 21th century is filled with competition, development of new arising markets, uncertain environmental factors, wide use of high technology and the expansion of trade. Successful achievement in this World requires to use opportunities efficiently and remove challenging obstacles. This requires to know the internal and external environments and stay in this competitive World by designing an effective strategy. This paper aims to design and formulate organizational and functional strategies of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Customs (IRIC). To this end, strategic factors are first identified in the internal and external environments and then a questionnaire is designed to collect information. Using a sample of custom’s senior and middle managers and experts, the questionnaire is screened by Delphi method. Based on the internal and external Factors, a matrix is calculated. Moreover, based on the strategic factors, guidelines, suggestions and requirements of the World Customs Organizational (WCO), the fourth Iranian development plan and the World Trade Organization (WTO), the mission, Vision and objectives of the IRIC are formulated. Then the internal and external matrixex, the strengths, weaknesses, Opportunities and threats (SWOT) matrix are analyzed by using the strategic factors and the results of the internal and external evaluation matrixes. In addition, the quantitative strategic planning is proposed and the IRIC’S strategies are prioritized. Finally, the IRIC’s organizational strategy are designed.

Since the first oil shock in 1973, almost the economic performance of Iran has been related to its natural resource wealth. The economy has experienced relatively lower per capita GDP growth and higher income inequality. This may support this hypothesis that natural resources seem to have been more of a curse than a blessing for Iran. This paper aims to analyze the effects of oil resource abundance on two major macroeconomic variables, economic growth and income distribution, in Iran using the data over the period 1968 - 2005. I take a time series perspective and focus on major forces of economic growth including oil resource. Moreover, the main determinants of income distribution are theoretically specified to examine the effects of oil resource. Due to the problem of data availability, and ARDL approach is employed to estimate the empirical models. Using the production function approach, the results of the study confirm that the overall long run effect of oil abundance on GDP is positive and significant but the value of the estimated coefficient is too small. The findings show that physical capital and human capital have positive and significant effects on GDP in the long run. Moreover, this study finds that oil abundance have negative and significant effect on income distribution. It means that oil revenue improves income equality in Iran. It should be point out that while the Gini coefficient is relatively higher compared to most countries, poverty level are substantially lower because of the distinguished social welfare system in the country and cohesive system of private social responsibility through a religious charitable system. However, income and human capital have a negative and significant effect on income distribution. The overall findings appeared to support this hypothesis that oil abundance is not a blessing for Iran.

One of the main issues in financial management is choosing the best way of utilizing investment. Investors would like to invest their capitals in a way to minimize their risks. Bankruptcy is one of the risk factors which affect the decision of investors. Prediction of bankruptcy can help investors to reduce the risks in the capital markets and recognize the best opportunities for alternative investment. This study aims to predict the bankruptcy of companies by using the technique of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Moreover, discriminant Analysis and logestic regression techniques are employed to compare the results. The data used in this study covers the firms in the Kerman Province of Iran over the period 1975- 2007. The results show that ANN model perfom much better than the discriminant analysis and logestic regression techniques. Moreover, the results confirm that the accuracy of ANN model is higher than the discriminant analysis and logestic regression techniques for predicting of bankruptcy. The analysis also shows that none of the firms will bankrupt in the year after the period covered in this study.