نشریه جستارهای اقتصادی ایران
پیاپی 6 (پاییز و زمستان 1385)

"Artificial Neural Network" is known as one of the most advanced "Bankruptcy Prediction Models". Based on this research paper, the main structure of three - and four - layer Perceptron models for bankruptcy prediction had led to same models; however, three-layer network has benefited from more predictive power than four - layer network. In comparison with other models, applying neural network models can improve the potentials of financial managments to stand against economic fluctuations and bankruptcy. Through this paper, the economic bankruptcy of registered corporations in Tehran Stock Market during 2006 – 2007 would be predicted and bankruptcy trend of above- mentioned corporations between 1991 - 2007 have been presented analytically. As a result of defining economic policies, the trend of economic bankruptcy would be remarkably increased through 2006. A year later, 2007, due to the compatibility of corporations with present situations, the above – mentioned trend would be adjusted.

Applying logistic Regression Model, this research paper is aimed to figure out the determinants of credit risk among Agricultural Bank's clients of Iran and establish a model to assess the credit risk among them. To achieve the focus of this research, the qualitative and financial data of 200 randomly sampled companies which had received credit facilities from different branches of Agricultural Bank in Tehran during 1999 – 2004 is evaluated here. Considering credit files of each sample, 36 explanatory variables including qualitative and financial ones were sampled Finally, applying logistic regression analysis, 17 variables, mostly have had significant effect on credit risk and unique low risk and high risk clients were selected. Based on statistic indices, these estimated functions are considered significantly in high reliability according to goodness of fit indices and distinguishing potentials of the model. Findings of this research confirm the economic and financial theories related to determinants of credit risk and show that determinants of credit risk of Agricultural Bank clients have more in common with the ones of the other Iranian banks such as Mellat and Bank of Export Development.

Social capital and its role in economic practice have remarkably attracted economists all around the world. Despite of lots of studies around the topic, this field of study did not find a synthesis over the concept of social capital. However, this is the correlation of social capital with economic growth which is in the focus of attention in this research paper. What is the concept of social capital and how does it affects economic growth are two questions which this research paper is intended to find answers for them. Therefore, two types of social capital are considered here; bonding and bridging social capital. Based on models of economic growth and applying data related to Iranian values, attitudes and Iran's cultural behaviors, the impact of these two variables on economic growth of 28 provinces of Iran through 2000 – 2003 has been evaluated. Applying OLS in this research, it shows that there is an inverse relationship between bonding and bridging social capital. While bridging social capital has found positive and remarkable effect on economic growth, bonding social capital meet supposed indices with both positive and negative effect on economic growth.

Financial derivative instruments, which are created by financial experts, play an important role in the world of high finance. To deal with the risk, mainly price risk, these instruments have appeared and begun to change and promote day in, day out. Their importance may appear when it happens to them to be published more than base stock; great sum of money would be transferred by and ends by paying the difference in price, not caring for contents of contract. This research paper tends to have a juridical analyse over these instruments. Explaining these instruments, first their legal nature would be identified and then, juridical judgement would be inferred. Most of the instruments which are created to satisfy the requirements of economic agents can be revised by law. May be, these instruments are misused, but this is incidental, as it may happen about other legitimate instruments like principle of commerce.

Relationship of budget deficit, inflation and value of money are some controversial issues mostly discussed in macroeconomics as a main concern of policy makers and economists in both developed and developing countries. Policy of budget deficit is known as one of the fiscal policies resort widely applied in most countries specifically in Iran. What is the relationship between budget deficit and macroeconomics variable, as the main focus of this study, has remained unanswered for a long time. Based on empirical studies, statistics show that the budget deficit and inflation relationship are not the same among countries sampled in this research. This research paper tends to analyze and examine the theoretical and empirical relationship of budget deficit and inflation during 1976 – 2005. Applying econometrics tests to evaluate the correlation between inflation and budget deficit, this relationship does not find any statistically significant variation.

The impact of direct and indirect subsidies to journals on their circulation and demand for journals are the matter of importance in this research paper. Two questions raise if subsidies are intended to help them afford the journal's publication: 1. Do they really need to receive subsidies? 2. Do journals receive subsidies equally? To find answer for the questions, the amount of subsidies paid to all journals, the way their incomes were and the expenditures of nine journals with a wide circulation were sampled. For each journal, 60 issues in 2006 (per months 5 numbers) were randomly sampled and were evaluated by income and expenditure criterion. Estimating the average income and expenditure for each journal and determining the amount of benefit and loss, it was inferred that to avoid their loss, paying subsidies to journals could be irrational as well as did not agree with the average expenditures by journals. Paying subsidies did not remain remarkable influence on the demand for journals, too. This research paper firstly suggests the elimination of subsidies to journals, then, if they want to continue paying subsidies, it must be basically revised based on equalizing the total amount of average benefit and average subsidy for each issue.