فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی
پیاپی 25 (تابستان 1389)

The economic and technical changes which followed the first oil market crisisled to the development of a vast number of models to analyze and forecast energydemand. The transportation sector is one of the most important consumers in theenergy market, especially in the oil products market, and as such, has been subject topolitical interventions of governments. In this context, this paper models gasolineand diesel demand through a three-step maximization of utility function subject toexpenditure constraints in each step. The model is constructed in a structural timeseries models framework, using data for the period 1358-86, and has an invisibletrend component. After transforming the model to state-space form, we apply theKalman filter algorithm to estimate the model through the maximum likelihoodmethod. The results indicate that: 1. the trend is smooth 2. the process of movementis nonlinear. Estimated demand functions show that price elasticity of gasoline anddiesel demand is less than one with short and long-run elasticity for gasoline of -0.24 and -0.3 respectively and for diesel at -0.2 for both. The income elasticity ofdemand for gasoline and diesel is respectively 1.71 and. 84. Sensitivity of demand tovehicle ownership that use gasoline and diesel are 1.41 and 0.75 respectively.

Growing importance of energy resources in the development of economicprocesses and the necessity of utilizating these resources in an environmentallysound and sustainable manner renders the study of factors affecting energyconsumption more important. The size and age structure of population are importantfactors that affect energy consumption, which have not been studied much.Therefore, this study uses the life cycle theory of consumption to explore andevaluate the impact of population size and age structure on energy consumption inSouthwest Asian countries. In addition, models are estimated using the panel datamethod.The results of estimating models suggests that variables such as GDP per capita,population size and the rate of urbanization, have a significant positive impact onenergy consumption. In addition, the changing population age structure has asignificant impact on energy consumption.Thus, knowledge of the consequences of changes in population size and agestructure on energy consumption in Iran and other regional countries can facilitatefuture planning and policy making.

The region of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is of great interest due toits energy reservoirs and special geopolitical conditions. The challenge ofsustainable development in MENA has been debated amongst internationalorganizations and researchers. The current paper tries to find the causalityinteractions among sustainability pillars, i.e. institutional, environmental, economicand social sustainability. For this purpose, data for 29 variables related toinstitutional, environmental, economic and social spheres for the 2000 - 2007 periodwere gathered and combined using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Finally, adynamic panel data model was constructed to test the causality between pillars. Theresults reveal the fact that economic development of MENA, which has relied uponenvironmental depletion, not only could not develop social and institutionaldimensions, but caused their deterioration.

The current study aims to develop a model for forecasting volatility of crude oilprice by using neural networks. To do so, time series prices of the two crude oilmarkets – of Brent and WTI – for the period of 12/05/1990 to 2/2/2010 are used. Wehave compared the results of four different volatility models including two NeuralNetworks (which differ in inputs, as explained in the article), GARCH (1,1) and ahybrid model of NNs and GARCH. Comparison of predictions of these modelsusing the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) criteria reveals that the performance ofthe hybrid and both NN models is better than GARCH (1,1) for both oil markets.

In this study, we consider the impacts of different factors on changes in energyconsumption in Fars, Tehran and Isfahan Pegah Dairy Companies in the period1375-1386. We use Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) techniques todecompose changes in energy consumption. In this method, changes in energyconsumption are decomposed to three different factors: activity effect, structuraleffect and net intensity effect. The results show the structural effect in Fars, Tehranand Isfahan to be 184.06, 239.41 and 107.42 respectively and activity effect 414.18,553.1 and 314.39 respectively. Both these effects are positive, while the net intensityeffect is negative at -508.26, -680.08, and -347 respectively. This Result is useful forpolicymaking in the energy sector.

In this paper we assess one of the flexible aspects of the Kyoto protocol, namelythe clean development mechanism and oppurtunites Iran may have to make use offunding opportunities offered by CDM for wind energy projects. The cost-benefit ofa 10 MW wind power plant is assessed using comfar III method to compare use ofCDM versus internally funding the project.The results show that given restrictions faced by Iran in accessing CDMresources, wind power is not feasible option

Enhancing the energy efficiency of appliances is one of the most significantways of energy saving. In this context, Iran's Energy Productivity Organization isputting in effect some policy measures to support desert cooler producers to improvethe energy efficiency of their products. This paper undertakes a cost-benefit analysisof the alternative ways of Energy efficiency enhancement in desert coolers. To thisend, we first investigate the feasibility of energy efficiency enhancement in desertcoolers and then estimate the costs and benefits of higher energy efficiency. Ourresults indicate that with available technologies there are several feasible and costeffective ways to increase energy efficiency of desert coolers. In addition, paymentof subsidy to cooler producers removes the financial barriers of producing efficientcoolers but does not guarantee the adoption of more efficient technologies by them.Without considering other determining factors (such as quality R&D and increasingthe consumer's awareness about the benefits of efficient appliances), theeffectiveness of adopted policy measures will remain uncertain.

During the last decades, the Persian Gulf region has been through many crises.As a result, main oil consumers such as the USA have tried to reduce theirdependence on the region due to security considerations. This has led to aproduction and export rate not consistent with the region’s sizeable oil reservoir.However, as oil consumption increases over time, the Persian Gulf reservoir willbecome a more important source meeting the world’s oil demand in the future. Thissituation creates important opportunities and challenges for the region. In this articlethree different scenarios are reviewed.