فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی
پیاپی 44 (بهار 1394)

Several Times a Year, OPEC Hosts Conferences among its Members to Agree on Further Oil Production Policies. OPEC Members’ Decisions Regarding Production Level of Cartel which Result an Increase, Cut or Maintain, Affect the Expectation of Crude Oil Price. Although for Consideration of OPEC’s Decisions in Regression Models Dummy Variables are used, Using Conventional Dummy Variables would only be Useful in Explaining Instant Effect of OPEC News Announcement. This Study Aimed to Access the Full Impact of OPEC News Announcement on Expectation of Crude Oil Price, Using Dummy Variables Modified by 4 Operators. The Results Indicate that Using Modified Dummy Variables in Comparison with Conventional ones, Lead to better Results and more Confirm the Impact of OPEC News Announcement on Expectation of Crude Oil Price.

The present article follows a structural view so as to estimate parameters of OPEC behavior. By doing so, one can answer to this question:. During 1981 to 2007, whether OPEC adopted a Cartel behavior or not? To this end, this study evaluates OPEC’s behavioral criteria by simultaneously solving oil demand and supply equations. Our results show that, overall OPEC’s behaviour is Cournot Competition in presence of a competitive fringe. Cooperation among OPEC members and their involvement in the war lead to increase of OPEC oil price. Also, increasing gas prices, economic growth of OPEC countries, and expecting OPEC to reduce surplus production capacity causes the demands for OPEC’s oil to increase. While, increased oil production in non-OPEC countries, significantly reduce the demand for OPEC oil.

High gasoline consumption in Iran requires serious measures to control the use of this product. Undoubtedly one of the most important measures can be improving the efficiency of gasoline. Improved fuel efficiency coupled with a concern called the rebound effect where the initial reduction in fuel consumption is offset in resulting improved performance. Naturally, the lack of attention to the effect of gasoline will cause inefficiency policy optimization. This article aims to examine the factors influencing the effect of the measure and thus improve the efficiency of 5% in gasoline consumption in various sectors of the economy. For this target, computable general equilibrium model is used. General equilibrium model using a Social Accounting Matrix 1385 and assuming a small open economy is simulated. The results show that resulting in a 5 percent improvement in fuel efficiency, there is rebound effects in different sectors of the economy so that transport sector has the greatest rebound effect and oil and gas sector has minimal rebound effects. The total amount of rebound effect is equal 11.9 per cent. The results of the sensitivity analysis shows that with changes in the elasticity of substitution between gasoline and other energy products there is no slight change in the rebound effects.

The main purpose of this study is to examine causality between oil price and real exchange rate in the context of Iranian economy during 1991/1 to 2011/12. In doing so, a novel technique based on the combination of Wavelet transform and Artificial Neural Network has been used. Empirical results confirm an unidirectional causality from oil price to exchange rate in time domain and after decomposing time series only in third scale a bidirectional causality exists.

Considering the fact that fossil resources are not endless and some countries like Iran are highly depended on oil income, it's important to notice the growth of energy usage and the air pollution that it causes and also analyzing the defining factors of energy demand. So in this study we analyze the effect of the 16 economical variables on energy demand in the time period of 1338-1389 by using the BMA and WALS averaging models. The results show that the oil income and GDP variable have the most effect in energy demand with positive signs. In rating this 16 factors by the probability of their presence in the estimated model the first factors in the order of importance are: the oil income growth variable, GDP growth variable, the logarithm of the ratio of energy consumption delay to GDP and the comparative delay of energy price. The changes of energy comparative prices didn’t have much of effect on energy consumption, at least in the period of sampling.

Dorood first generation Buy-Back Contract was signed in 1999 Between National Iranian oil companies (NIOC) and International oil companies (Elf and Agip). This project aimed at increasing output from the field by 80,000 barrels per day to 220,000 barrels per day. This study would like to compare Elf company's production profile with optimal oil production path from 2000 up to 2024. We use stochastic dynamic programming to model this problem. We solve it with using value function Iteration and Discretization method. This paper shows the optimal oil production path is different from IOC's production profile under buy-back contracts. Elf's accumulative oil production will be 107 to 360 million barrels less than optimal accumulative production from 2000 up to 2024. Hence, first generation of buy-back contracts such as Dorood Buy-Back Contract distort optimal oil production path. Inflexibility and inequitable risk sharing among NIOC and IOCs under the first generation of buy back contracts are the main reasons.

The increasing growth in gasoline consumption, environmental problems, the high cost of providing fuel, the country's limited oil resources, and the rich reserves of natural gas which has placed Iran in the second position in this respect at the international level, has led to replacement of compressed natural gas (CNG) for gasoline in the transportation sector to become one of the top priorities in the energy sector. Moreover, Iran has the second largest natural gas reserves in the world, thus the replacement of fuel CNG for gasoline can be one of the emergency solutions to deal with the overuse of gasoline and other fuel products. The appropriate location of natural gas stations can largely meet the fuel shortage and lack of access of citizens to it. in this study we examined a mathematical model developed to find suitable sites for construction of CNG stations. The purpose of this model is to minimize the costs and maximize the coverage of customers.we use Goal Programming to solve this problem. Finally, this model has been implemented in the form of a case study in Tehran. The results of the numerical analysis indicate that examples obtained from optimization of the proposed model reduce the total cost of the transportation in comparison with the present situation. Also, the sensitivity analysis performed indicates the accuracy of modeling in finding locations of the CNG stations in Tehran.

Natural gas is the cleanest fossil fuel with the ability to transform into different products which in the recent decades has received much attention from industrial countries. Also the countries which own gas resources have done extensive planning for using it due to existence of large market for various products of natural gas. Among the various physical and chemical transforms of natural gas, the technologies of conversion to liquid products and liquefied natural gas (LNG) have faced very high demands. Technology to convert natural gas into liquid products by using Fischer-Tropsch procedure, converts natural gas into liquid fuels without sulfur. Liquefied natural gas technology not only meets natural gas traditional demand, but it also solves, the problem of long-distance gas transmission through the pipeline Then the possibility of exporting natural gas to distant markets is provided. Examining various methods of exporting natural gas is very important for Iran as the second-largest holder of natural gas since it enables Iran to choose the best way for exporting gas. The purpose of this study is to investigate the comparative economic effects of the exports of LNG and gas to liquid (GTL) based on Iran targeted subsidies law. This research is performed using Kamfar software and it is based on measures of net present value, internal rate of return and investment payback period. So after designing several scenarios for the price of feed gas for LNG plants and GTL, necessary studies on selected projects have been conducted. The results show that the use of both technologies has economic justification and reduction in operational and capital costs or increase in sales revenue will increase the project profitability. Also GTL exports project is more economical than LNG export project.