فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی
پیاپی 55 (زمستان 1396)

The North American oil production surge led by US shale oil, has produced a global supply shock and the effects of it's continued growth will cascade through the global oil market. This paper attempts to find out the future trend of US shale oil production and analyze that, with regard to technological, economic, and geological factors, using system dynamics approach. The proposed model is used to analyze US shale oil peak and market shares, up to 2035, under different price, resource and technology scenarios. The results show that US shale oil peaks around 2025, and it's rate ranges from 8.51 to 30.71 MB/day, which is 8–30 percent of total oil demand. Simulation results reveal that US shale oil cant be a major source for the market in the long run unless by increasing oil recovery factor.

In this study, according to destructive effects of energy consumption on the environment quality and its limits in Iran, substitution the labor instead of energy and its impact on the economy was investigated. estimation the elasticity of substitution between labor and energy for industry sector of Iran by using the CES production function and periodic observation (1980-2013) was performed.The result suggests that the amount of substitution elasticity is 0.48 percent.The other results of estimations show that by increasing the price of energy as an environmental policy reduced its consumption and on the other hand, because of the substitution between energy and labor increasing the labor demand can be seen. Increasing the energy price as an environmental policy can have two positive effects on the economy; on the one hand, occurs reducing the energy consumption and improvement of the environment and on the other hand by substitution the labor instead of energy the labor demand and employment increases.

Abstract. One of the most important parts of oil contracts is the financial regime. The terms of financial regime are proprietary and governed based on negotiation between parties, and they play a significant role in the success of the contracts and the parties’ consent. In this article, the nature and structure of the financial system are presented in the buyback contract and the new oil contract of Iran. Then, by reviewing the literature ý related to the financial system and interviewing the experts, it has been decided to choose criteria for assessment of financing. In order to compare the evaluation criteria for prioritization, as well as to choose the best financing method in the buyback contractý and the new oil contract of Iran, the experts’ opinions and TOPSIS decision-making method were used. According to the results of TOPSIS method, the criteria of foreign investment attraction and financing, onservative production of oil, logical flexibility in the description, and costs of contractors’ duties are of the highest priority in the financial system of the two contracts, and based on the introduced criteria, the IPC contract was identified as a suitable contract for the Iranian oil industry.

In this study, a game-theoretic model is designed according to the corruption index as the main channel for rent-seeking of natural resources and good governance index as a anticorruption by Sambit Bhattacharyya and Roland Hodler's approach. According to this model, we use data of corruption index, good governance index and resource rent and per capita income. We use panel data covering the period 2000–2014 and 50 countries to test this theoretical prediction. The model has been tested twice more by governance effectiveness index and regulatory burden index instead of good governance index again. Our estimates confirm that the relationship between resource rents and corruption depends on the quality of the good governance indexs. In such a way as to meet a minimum level of this index, resource rent's corruption can be controlled. Our main results hold when we control the effects of time varying common shocks, regional fixed effects and various additional covariates.

Electricity is one of the most important infrastructure of the country. After the successful experience of industrialized countries for separate different parts and privatization in electricity industry, Iran since 1382 has begun to privatize the electricity industry. The electricity distribution sector is natural monopoly and, according to economic theory must operate under regulation for quantity of supply, price and quality to protect social welfare. There are various methods for regulation such as rate of return and incentive regulation, in many of these methods foucus on efficiency and productivity of firms. But the conventional static efficiency methods mainly reflecting short-run performance, and only show a close view of the long-run equilibrium path. When componis investment, the behavior of short-term factors that affecting the company may not be adjusted immediately, so short-run inefficiency will be transferred to subsequent periods. This effect caused by the the adjustment costs of capital and production capacity and in short run reduce efficiency in firms and should be considered in the regulation. In this paper, the dynamic efficiency of 39 electricity distribution companies during the period 2009-2015 was calculated using distance function. To estimate the the posterior distribution of model parameters, the simulation based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) was used. The results show that environmental factors affect the efficiency in firms. The industry average efficiency increased from 67% to 70% and consistency for inefficiency was 92% during the period.

In this paper have been introduced an approach which refer to as the attribution analysis of index to the IDA and energy studies. This approach extends the methodology of IDA by quantifying the contribution of each individual attributes to the overall percent change of factors, such as the real energy intensity. As has been shown in this study, the method can be used as a tool to assess and monitoring changes of industrial energy efficiency in greater depth compared to what has been reported in the literature. It can similarly apply the technique to analyze the structural change index in a symmetrical way.
In this study have been applied the proposed method to the real energy intensity index in the multiplicative Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index ­(M-LMDI)­ approach,a major IDA technique. Since the M-LMDI is based on geometric mean type indices and chain computation,we need some appropriate method to cope with the difficulties that arise.
This study is based on a standard model of two factors such that the aggregate energy intensity index is the product of the real energy intensity index and the structural change index. The proposed attribution analysis, however, is not restricted to the number of factors. It can be similarly employed in other IDA studies, such as energy-related carbon dioxide emissions where the number of factors is often more than two. This approach can be defined as long as these factors are expressed in either geometric mean or arithmetic mean indices.
This study present a numerical illustration of the proposed method using the energy consumption and real value added data of the Iranian manufacturing industry.

From economic point of view, liability rules are efficient provided that they induce individuals to observe optimal cares & activities concurrently. Due to inefficiency of global maritime liability law in terms of oil pollution, special liability regime has been gradually evolved and Developed from 1969, which consist of some different features including Strict Liability with the Defense of Contributory Negligence, Channeling of liability of oil tanker owner and great increasing in limits of liability. As well as, damages resulting from oil pollution could be recovered by International Oil Pollution Compensation FUND of 1992 and its Supplementary Fund of 2003 which are financed by contribution levied on oil companies. In this paper, the effects of determining financial limits & channeling of liability rle on tanker owners 'motivations to take optimal care, As well as, reconstruction of financial contribution mechanism of the FUNDs so that contributions are more risk related & generally speaking, analysis of this legal system in prevention of loss has been surveyed.

The importance of improving energy efficiency in the industry and its sub-sections is that reduce the cost of production at the macro level, Pay less subsidies and reduce the cost of industrial products. In this way, enhanced the value added of these sectors and increase competitiveness, enhance product quality, and ultimately, reduce imports some of important goods and increase exports of some products that made. This study examines the effect of eliminating energy subsidies on the energy intensity in iran industry using the approach of seasonal time series data in during 1385-1392 with Cobb-Douglas cost function that negative correlation between energy intensity and energy prices approved. Also results show that over time with advances in technology, energy intensity is decreased. Then energy price liberalization scenario, assuming a steady rise in nominal prices for the period 1393-1389 is studied. The results show that after the liberation of energy prices, energy intensity is decreased so that the highest reduction in the first year of liberalization and in the years following the reduction of energy intensity has decreased.