نشریه جغرافیا و توسعه ناحیه ای
سال هشتم شماره 2 (پیاپی 15، پاییز و زمستان 1389)

Because of low Spatial resolution and simplifications in meteorological processes in Global Circulation Models, they cannot sufficiently simulate the weather, comparing to the regional models; then, spatial and temporal downscaling of the GCM outputs are needed for decreasing errors of the Global Circulation Models. There are two methods of downscaling: statistical and dynamic. Weather Generator technique is one of popular methods of statistical downscaling. In this study, meteorological parameters of ECHO-G General Circulation Models including maximum and minimum temperature, radiation and precipitation were downscaled by a weather Generator model of LARS-WG in the period of 2010-2039. Results show the mean of precipitation will decrease by 9.5 percent; mean temperature will be decreased by 1.5-3.3 degrees in the period under study (2010-2039). Thresholds of heavy and extreme rainfalls will increase by 45 and 60 percent respectively. It is calculated that precipitations of cold season will increase by 13 percent with a shift toward the end of cold season. Finally, it was found that summer rainfall increases by the amount of 50 percent.

Dashte-Mashhad Reservoir provides the water supply needed for irrigating 120 acres of agricultural lands and also the soft water for people living in Mashhad, Chenaran, Golbahar and a number of villages in the region. The deep wells of the region have been using the water stored in this reservoir since 1350 in a rate which exceeds that of water being imported to it, hence the decrement of the water supply. The average reduction rate is more than one meter per year which has consequences including reduction in the wells’ water output, lowering the ground level and the increment of minerals in the water With regard to the last point, it should be mentioned that the level of Ec minerals in the water of Chenaran region has increased by 250 MHO in centimeter during 22 years (1363 to 1385). In addition, for each meter of reduction in the height of underground waters in the same period, the level of Ec (26 at the beginning) has increased to 95 MHO in centimeter. The method of research is inductive and causal and the final analysis is done based on correlation analysis of the data extracted from a set of maps, hydrographs, and chemo graphs. It can be argued that the over-extraction of the reservoir will make it very salty and eventually unusable.

The present paper aims to examine one of the technically-based approaches in the field of urban planning and urban management which started about two decades ago, and has been tested in Iran over the past decade with some scientific and executive prudence. In this paper, the CLUE_S model, one of the models for land use changes process simulation, is used to examine its efficiency in urbanization of Iranian cities and simulating their structure. Since the researchers had suitable data about Zanjan, this city was used as an appropriate case. For geo-statistical analysis, are SPSS, ArcGIS and CLUE_S are used. The results show that if there are sufficient and suitable databases for several time series, it is possible to use the new technologies in simulation and prediction of future events of urban planning and management. In this study, three scenarios are proposed for the future of the Zanjan growth, which, among the rate of 4.8% from 1956 to 2006 Seems to be rather logical and acceptable and shows the physical growth of Zanjan in 2021.

In this paper the minimum temperatures of 54 weather stations collected for a 31-year period were analyzed for zoning the frost regions in Iran. The results of this study show that the average of the number of frost days per year was 62, and the average temperature was 3 degrees of centigrade below zero. Dey the tenth month in the Iranian calendar, December 22-January 20 with an average of 28, had the most frost days and the lowest temperatures. The most frosted days with severe temperature points belong to January with the average of less than 30 days. The regions of West, North West and the Alborz were the most highly frosted ones, while Northern parts experienced less severe frosts. In all the periods, West, North West and Southern sides of the Alborz had the highest average and lowest temperatures, whereas Northern and Southern regions had the lowest average and highest temperatures.

Urban green spaces are one of the most important services in modern cities and form a set of urban sustainable development factors which receive considerable attention from urban planners. This paper explains how land use can be optimally allocated to urban public green spaces. In this study, some of the factors influencing urban green spaces in a period from 1373 to 1384 were studied. Moreover, development process and historical transformation of green spaces at time series and in another sector, precipitins of green space, have been studied from various viewpoints and measured with regard to Golestan urbanized situation. According to standards of urban planning study, the quality and quantity rate of green space of Golestan the results show that territorial and regional parks do not exist in Golestan as a town. The existing green space moreover, is not distributed in a balanced manner on the surface.

The purpose of this article was to plan development al strategies for Sabzevar based on the sustainable development theory. The method of research has been descriptive and most of the data used in the study were secondary (documentations) which were then analyzed using Delphi and SWOT models with a strategic approach. Documentation and qualitative research methods such as deep interview and individual observation were used throughout the case study. The findings show that in the internal factors, weak points of the city exceed its strong points, whereas with respect to the external factors, opportunities weigh more than threats. One can conclude that most of Sabzevar urbanization development al strategies must be based on using WO strategies; in other words, people in charge of running the town must make use of the opportunities in hand to eliminate the internal weaknesses of the town.

The main function of rural areas in the third world is the agricultural function which is crucially important because of its great effects on employment, moderating income and poverty, food security and self-efficacy. This article studies the role of agriculture (as an independent variable) in rural development (related variable) of Miyankangi district in Sistan. The method of the study was descriptive – analytical and the data were collected through standard rural and family questionnaires. For analyzing the data, the researchers used multivariate analysis and correlation tests. The sample of the study included 372 people taken randomly from 40 villages. The variance observed in the four dimensions of agricultural power showed that the social dimension with a coefficient of 12% was the most homogeneous dimension, while productive dimension with a coefficient of 35% was the most heterogeneous one. Among the rural developmental dimensions, the social one with a coefficient of 14% was the most appropriate and the ecological dimension with a coefficient of 26% was the most inappropriate one. The correlation test showed a significant relation between the two independent and related variables. Based on the multivariate analysis, the productive dimension has explained 40.30% of the variance of the related variable. In general, the four agricultural dimensions have explained 52.4% of the changes of rural development.

Agriculture development in Ardestan faces many problems due to the lack of water and soil, and shortage of agricultural lands. One of the most important consequences of this is migration from the city. A considerable part of these problems can be solved by developing small industries and workshops and creating job opportunities. From 1375 to 1385, 53 industrial units including carpet, food and inorganic industries have been developed using the inorganic and agricultural potentials found in the rural areas of Ardestan (Garmsir, Rikstan, Barzavand, Kego, Hombrat) and such measures have had an important role in rural employment. The main aim of this research was to analyze the small industries established around Ardestan’s rural regions and to suggest the most appropriate ones regarding their potentials for producing agricultural, non-agricultural products. To this end, the AHP method was used and a questionnaire related to the three groups was developed based in the views expressed by 20 experts in the regional industries. The results show that Kego (Kegomethghal) with the relative weight of 0.24, and Garmsir (Mahabad) are the best locations for developing agricultural and non-agricultural small industries across the region respectively.

Mashhad municipality faces several governance issues including transparency, providing information, justice, accountability and lack of satisfaction on the part of citizens. The necessity of researching these issues and analyzing the current situation of governance in Mashhad cannot be denied. This study opens a new horizon in this regard by analyzing the indicators of good governance (participation, transparency, legality, and accountability). It is argued that these indicators are necessary for realizing sustainable development and citizens can play a very important role in the process of planning and implementing the plans and facilitate achieving the goals in this area. To this end, a questionnaire was filled by 391 participants and 32 experts from municipality and city council of Mashhad. The Results of analysis based on WSOT model show that, out of the four defined states, namely aggressive, conservative, defensive and competitive, the situation of governance in Mashhad is in the worst state, i.e. in defensive state. It was also found that Mashhad is weak regarding the internal factors (weaknessesand strengths) and has not had an appropriate reaction to the external factors (threats and opportunities). Finally, a number of strategies to improve the status quo are proposed: 1) reachinga consensus among local officials to realize an integrated urban management and inter-organization harmony; 2) accountability on the part of organizations and and prevention of irresponsible groups to intervene in urban management.

For a long time, the concept of sustainability and unsustainability, the ways to assess them, and the factors involved in the process of various areas of scienc, especially the environmental ones. Sustainability in rural areas as human settlements depends heavily on a series of factors including environmental and socio-economic factors. This paper aims at introducing fuzzy set theory and the extension of fuzzy mathematical models for assessing the sustainability of rural settlements based on several socio-economic and environmental indicators. In an attempt to demonstrate the inefficiency and inappropriateness of the methods for assessing the sustainability of rural settlements, fuzzy logic as a smart system has been tried and tested for sustainability assessment. On this basis, the main question can be put forward in this way: Is it possible to assess the sustainability of the rural settlements through fuzzy logic? In an answer to this question, it can be said that the fuzzy set theory can relate the human approaches to the sustainability concept to a scientific mathematical model. To run such a model requires that the membership function be created for every single indicator in fuzzy system and serve as a basis for the operations. According to this model, whose implementation is described step by step in this paper, it is revealed that the researched settlements (Qooshkhaneh District of Shirvan) do not enjoy the same level of sustainability. The implemented fuzzy test application in assessing the sustainability level of the settlements of this district also implies that Zoo village with the rate of 0.572 has the highest level of sustainability and Sarani is the least sustainable village of the district. The research findings also revealed that there is a huge difference among the settlements of this district in terms of social and environmental sustainability. However, in terms of economic sustainability, the settlements seem more homogeneous. The reason for this could be attributed to economic potentials, environmental limitations, cultural features, and spatial situation of the villages in the region.

This study was conducted to investigate the effect of Meteorological conditions on determining the date and duration of spraying in sugarcane fields in Haft Tappeh in 1388. The most important observed parameters who limit spraying are rainfall, wind, temperature and relative humidity. The date of the first and final spraying for each year were determined based on the data collected in this study. Then these dates were changed to Gregorian calendar number. Given the typical theory and the materials used in variables, the t-test was used to measure the possible limits of means. The results showed that suitable spraying dates were 24 and 27 of the seventh month in the Iranian calendar of Mehr the seventh month in the Iranian calendar with a probability of 50 and 75 percent, respectively. Also, the results showed that the most limiting factor in the region was temperature. The total number of suitable working days was set to be 69.53 days based on this limiting factor.

Tourism economy is a subordinate of supply and demand that form the market of tourism. So, the study of economics and the recognition of tourism market along with supply and demand can bring the issue of tourism and host incomes into account. In this direction, the present paper deals with tourism economy in the metropolitan Mashhd, as a touristic market and in the framework of supply and demand and cost and benefits involved in the tourism economy. In the study of touristic economy of Mashhad, we have used methods and procedure with regard to the accessible dates. the datas have been gained from documentary studies and through the completion of questionnaires by residents and tourists Examining preformed with the tourism economy of Mashhad metropolitan, gained place coefficient 1.4 and the frequency coefficient of employment is equivalent to 2.79. The flow of tourism income firstly located to trade services (buying) with 33.25% and residence place services at the second rank, with the 23.52%. The next priorities are transportations, foods and refreshing beverages. With the attention of all performed studies in the case of tourism economy of Mashhad metropolitan and the volume of money flow of this industry, horizontal and parallel unity in tourism income flow between current product supply of tourism and tourist demands that can distribute tourism income. Whatever of performed services in the tourism supply framework allocated a share of tourism costs to itself. This issue comes to reset in parallel and forms income distribution of tourism. Although income distribution and employment resulting from tourism is not equitably, yet it need to a strategic type of redistribution of these two parameters.