نشریه جغرافیا و توسعه ناحیه ای
سال یازدهم شماره 1 (پیاپی 20، بهار و تابستان 1392)

The problem of recognizing terrain climate and its changes is central to geomorphologist، because these changes are the main factors in the current creation of landforms; such that it introduced changes in the land form systems، cryosphere level، and altitude of the permanent snow line، glacier tongues، growth boundary and hydrological systems. Nowadays، designing development programs، proper utilization of resources، environmental protection، reducing the amount of damage caused by natural disasters and many crucial problems without careful consideration of these studies will create numerous problems. Climate changes in particular during the least phase of the quaternary have a significant impact on the behavior of the river and the volume of stored water and ice focuses in this area،since the climatic parameters of temperature and precipitation are sensitive to climate change. Therefore، studding of the time trend in these variables and the evidence of glaciers is one of the most significant indicators in the reconstruction of climate changes and morphogenetic systems during the least phase of quaternary. Theoretical bases: The methods used in this study included a field، statistical-quantitative، library method. In analyzing the data، morphic indicators on 1:500000 topographic maps، digital elevation model and the Global Mapper and Surfer softwares were used. In this study، we used four sheets of topographic maps and layers of the evidence of the cirqus of glacier، water permanent snow line، Equilibrium line of the ice and water، and Equilibrium line of the land identified. Cyclical climatic data were collected and attempts were made to draw the thermal profile of the area، simultaneously. The Wright method was applied to analyze the past and present conditions and provided the necessary conditions for spatial analysis. Qorveh plain in Kordestan Provience is located between 35° - 35° 15''N latitude and 47° 45''-48° 5'' E longitudes. The Qorveh region is one of the areas affected by climatic fluctuations during glacial phases. These changes were identified and studied using the statistical analysis of meteorological stations، some geomorphic evidence، geomorphologic principles، and glaciers. In this study، evidence of the cirqus of glacier and permanent snow line at least phase of quaternary was collected through the use of the mentioned methods، and in accordance with to Wright method’s. Therefore، isothermal and precipitation Maps were drawn and the moisture and cooling conditions were reconstructed by creating the linear relationship at least phase of quaternary. Cooling and moisture anomalies were identified at the present time and least phase. The altitude of the Equilibrium line of the ice and water and permanent snow line were identified by analyzing the amount of snow precipitation in the past And the time required to move ice tongue in the region. Finally، morphogenetic systems of the area were reconstructed and analyzed at least and present phase The results showed that the highest correlation correlated with a linear relationship and temperature drop estimated with increasing every 100 meters of altitude. Regarding the cooling and moisture anomalies in the region at present and at least phase، it was found that the temperature in least Quaternary in comparison with the present temperature differed about 5. 9 ° C. Therefore، the difference in the annual mean temperature in the region was 6. 2 ° C. Regarding the height of temperature of zero degrees in the past and the present condition، the permanent snow line has retreated at approximately 1000 m compared with the least quaternary phase. Also، isothermal and precipitation Maps at present and past identified that in general، the volume of rainfall at quaternary time was twice that of the present phase. Regarding the cited evidence، the altitude of permanent snow line is above 2700 m in the area and of water and ice equilibrium line is 1900m. identification and reconstruction of the morphogenetic systems in present condition and least phase demonstrated that The loss of glaciers in mountainous and the equilibrium line changes since quaternary results to displacement of the morphogenetic boundaries، ecosystems and humans.

With the Industrial Revolution، cities have begun to develop unevenly and urban spaces have disappeared and problems of health، education، housing and employment in large cities have arisen and balance in the humanities and social relationships among urban residents is over. In cities with population growth، the issue of appropriate spatial distribution of urban services is of great importance. With the increasing use of motorized vehicles، fuel stations locating discussion to this vehicle were interested in in the Cities. Inadequate spatial distribution of natural gas stations in cities has created many problems for residents. Location is the most important factor in locating a gas station and leads to higher income and better service for consumers with the lowest possible costs. It has been proven that wrong Utility Locating in most towns and cities، especially in large cities that dominate the national and regional cities and towns، has created many problems in inner city traffic and a lot of the manpower and material resources for unnecessary trips have greatly added to the city''s environmental problems. The overall objective of this study was to identify and evaluate existing fuel distribution stations and the optimal location of this site in the city of Mashhad using GIS in order to promote the equitable distribution of services and the welfare of citizens. Therefore، in this study، in terms of the location of all gas stations and based on the four criteria of appropriateness، consistency، capacity and availability of the AHP model using geographic information system (GIS) have been studied. The methods used in this study were descriptive/analytical and the methods of data collection in this study are a combination of library and field. To achieve the research objectives، indicators and criteria for the location of the centers of stations were identified; this data were then entered into the AHP model using ARC GIS spatial analysis capabilities to analyze the urban location of stations CNG in the city of Mashhad. Our findings show that there are in the city of Mashhad، about 120 thousand NGVs. The city has 14 Dual Purpose and 34 single-purpose stations of CNG; There is a place for every 2،500 cars; While the global standard for every 1000 vehicles must have a status that far. In this city، the areas 9 and 10 with a high population density and the number of gas vehicles، natural gas stations have the greatest shortage in this areas، Region 8 is the worst among other areas in the city while there is one CNG station for every 8،825 CNG vehicles. Stations of natural gas per day in the city of Mashhad are able to service 50،000 NGVs while this is less than half of the NGVs vehicles in Mashhad. Each station has an optimum life of 25 years and due to the late return of capital in constructing CNG Fuel Station Private Sector investment is very low in this area. Results of the location condition of gas stations in terms of appropriateness index shows that more than 72% of natural gas stations are located in an inappropriate condition and 27% of the stations are located in an appropriate condition. Consistency index showed that 61% of the stations are located in an inappropriate condition and 39% of the stations are located in appropriate conditions. The status of locations in terms of capacity index indicates the inappropriateness of 75% stations and appropriateness of 25% stations. More than 62% of the stations are located in an inappropriate condition and 37% of the stations are located in an appropriate condition in terms of availability index. Thus، natural gas stations in Mashhad are not in a suitable condition in terms of both location and the number of stations. The hypothesis regarding the inappropriateness of existing fuel stations (CNG) in Mashhad، with appropriateness criteria، accessibility، adaptability and capacity is confirmed. Evaluation of existing fuel stations in Mashhad، indicating the absence of an expert plan to determine the optimal location of the construction site status that this resulted in the distribution of natural gas stations in this city are inappropriate. The survey of existing natural gas fuel stations in Mashhad، which can get an accurate model of the distribution of stations in the city، it is in areas with density stations (2. 7، 12) and in areas with low status and lack station (1، 5، 8، 11، Samen)، we faced. According to international standards، for per thousand vehicles، there must be one compressed natural gas; thus، there must be one hundred and twenty stations of compressed natural gas in Mashhad that the existing stations of natural gas are only 48 percent of the sites that should exist according to international standards.

One of the major problems in urban planning is the existing distance between work and leisure in urban life. Preventing the expansion Sprawl through the city in the form of mixed users is possible، thus reducing the energy consumption rates and the length of journeys and finally reducing air pollution and the environment. Therefore، an essential factor for achieving good access to urban development، environmental Sustainable. The aim of this study was to determine access areas available to identify the areas surrounding the city of Mashhad. Access research nearly half a century، particularly after the release of a small model of Hansen''s (Hansen،1959) about it. Dominate of suburbanization after World War II in the widespread use of car trips a day between work and life، particularly in urban areas by the mid-1970s، led to the marginalization of the Access issues (Newman، et al: 1999). Most efforts have focused on the issue of Accessibility was to movement. Theoretical bases: Methods studied in in this research is descriptive and analytical. To index calculation the Mixed use of access to various software (MATLAB، ArcGIS and SPSS) based on 1385 population statistics are used in Mashhad 40area Mashhad municipality in 1385 was 40 areas. Initial attempts were made to measure the interaction between the two areas. 1 - To calculate the distance between the centers of districts (40) 40 x 40 matrix of the distance between them was calculated using Arc GIS software Centroid. 2-After calculating the distance between the centers of the regions، the interaction between them was calculated. In this stage، using the formula above attractions _ housing census of population 1385 as attractions (Sj) _ the distance between the regions (dij)، in order to calculate the interaction between regions (Aij) provided. Varying definitions of access and consequently various patterns of measuring methods have been proposed by researchers. Accessibility as «freedom or ability to satisfy basic needs for the people preserve their quality of life is defined. Or access is،» easy to reach destination «or» cost reduction destination «. While moving» easy transfer «or» cost per kilometer«_ increase the speed _ reduce the time between origin _ destinations defined. Definition of the meaning of Accessibility is freedom or the ability to access people’s an essential needs _ provided to preserve quality of life (Lau & Catherine CHCiu 2003،197). The access of relative closeness or adjacent location to another (local) is defined. (Tosou، et al، 2005، 426). Various methods of measuring accessible to Neil''s theory is based on three Pasaogulari including: 1- Theoretical distribution (decentralized) 2 - adjacent 3 - road and accessible out to each one of them has a specific measurement method (2004، Nil Pasaogullari). The spatial distribution of population in the city of Mashhad، shows the spatial inconsistency. And densely populated areas of the Northeast، but as the north-west and south east and low population densities are low. Analysis was performed to demonstrate the fact that the center of population and geographical area Mashhad central city and the metropolitan area is located in accessible. The results of the model show high accessible factor analysis of the accessible of the city، Mashhad range compared to surrounding areas. With increasing distance from the city center to the periphery is reduced coefficient accessible. The mean coefficient of Mashhad _ accessible at 40 Areas the maximum value is 727. 5 the 1038 and the central city of Mashhad (around the holy shrine of Imam Reza is consistent. Minimum number of 320 was calculated coefficient access and the peripheral (marginal) in Mashhad. Accordingly Mashhad can access the index of three regions 1- regions with strong access (Central area) 2 - in the medium access (mid-range Mashhad) 3 - areas with poor access (_ marginal and out of the city) be divided. Measuring the correlation between the level of access and Mashhad areas shows that the negative relation R = -0، 32 and a confidence level of 5% is significant، but not strong. With the increasing Accessibility factor، the population of the urban area is reduced. And indicated the fact that areas with high population with low coefficients are Accessibility. Conclusion & Suggestions: Analyzing the spatial distribution of coefficient accessible in the city of Mashhad، indicating the difference between the different areas of _ is 320. 15 points. Due to the geographic center of the overlap regions with high availability، historical، religious and commercial city of Mashhad، with minimum distance and maximum access to the benefits of increased focus in this area، the gravitational force that attracts people of this area has been from day trips. Due to the weakness of the public transportation systems (rail، Tramway and bus) down thousands of private vehicles in the area، causing traffic congestion and air pollution problems، and the environment in this area is sound. In addition to the above results to determine the availability of Mashhad indicate of monopole of the city. One of the central core of the city public transportation system with fast (train) are not to be confronted with the problems of traffic congestion and so on. Accessibility indicators suggest that the analysis of the spatial distribution، the transition from monopole of the central pattern multicenter. The center could rival sub central city of Mashhad، which has reduced the availability of suitable pressure on the core will

The earthquake on December 2003 in Bam، Kerman province، was one of the most destructive earthquakes، which caused a lot of damage including human casualties، severity and physical damage. 80 percent of the buildings were completely demolished by the destructive earthquake. It is obvious that after the disaster، the reconstruction and return to the normal situation was one of the main duties of planners. In the reconstruction process، the principle، which must be taken into consideration، is to maintain the city''s identity. Thus، the main purpose of this study is to discus different aspects of urban identity in the reconstruction process; including unique historical attractions like the historic citadel of Bam، and natural identity (home-garden features)، as well as the physical-social identity. The method of this research is survey and based on a questionnaire. The reconstruction process has been considered as the dependent and identity as the Independent variables. This research has been accomplished to answer two main questions: 1. Have every identical aspects of the city been considered in the reconstruction process of Bam? 2. Is there any significant relationship between reconstruction and urban identity? Theoretical Framework: In the reconstruction process، the principle which must be taken into consideration is maintaining the city''s identity in a way that at a glance one can recognize the city as being the same at a glance; but not a new one، otherwise just the name of that city would remain in people’s minds، and there would be no guarantee for people to return to the reconstructed city. The reconstruction encompasses all aspects of life. About the relationship between identity and reconstruction، the history of the town and the predecessors should be inspired. The construction can be said to be a combination of social، psychological، cultural، economic، and political processes. In the reconstruction process، urban identity should be considered as one of the main components. Cities with a particular function should receive greater recognition. Maintaining the identity of the city is equal to maintaining the historical continuity and the relationship between the city and its history، the previous identity، characteristics and appearance of the city during the reconstruction process; in fact، it is to bring the spirit of the city back to it. Bam used to have qualitative values due to its particular historical and cultural characteristics، especially in residential and public spaces; therefore، for a successful reconstruction، identifying and assessing these values، is important. Identifying the residence traditions، social structures and living methods of the people in Bam underlies maintaining the local and regional identity. Such recognition leads to people''s practical and actual participation in social affairs and recreates the social sense. On a small scale، garden homes form the identity base of life in the city of Bam، the background of family structure and mental comfort، and familial relationships. In order to analyze the studied variables، the SPSS software was used to calculate statistical correlation، regression، and statistical parametric T-test for independent variables. Due to the particular situation of Bam، the most important problem is the Garden City، historical and cultural identity. In this regard، Bam''s identical state was assessed from the viewpoint of its inhabitants. As the identity of a city is recognized through its environmental visual aspects، Bam''s visual figures were discussed at the beginning. Although the sample has satisfied this situation and believed Bam''s historical figures have been almost noticed، regarding to the significance level، they believe the historical and cultural identity has been neglected in the Bam reconstruction process. They also believe though they do not feel unfamiliar to their city، their sense of belonging to the city has roughly been reduced. The findings show that during the reconstruction process، many identity aspects of the city of Bam have been neglected. These include the loss of the house-garden structure of the city which has resulted in decreasing the sense of local belonging.

Controlling and supervising borders is one of the most significant issues concerning international borders، especially in unstable and unsafe regions. Appropriate supervision and imposing control on borders has attracted government attention throughout history، due to its important role in national security (Glassner 2004:80); The Great Wall of China، Hadrian''s wall، and Golestan''s wall، etc، provide some evidence corroborating this claim. Different types of electronic devices are currently used alongside more traditional methods، for this purpose in the present time. Nevertheless، in some parts of the world، imposing optimal control over the borders is still a challenging issue for the governments، who are constantly looking for more effective and better methodologies (Lotfi 2011:77). After China، Iran and the Russian federation have the largest number of neighboring countries in the world. On the other hand، Iran''s borders lie within ten major physiographic regions، including mountains، foothills، deserts، swamplands، lagoons، rivers، forests، steppes، lakes، and seas (Karimipour، 2000:22). Such geographical features and having numerous neighboring countries has provided a special situation for Iran. Obviously، strategic or military control of these long border lines is extremely difficult. Based on this fact، numerous plans، policies، and methodologies have been used by different responsible organizations to manage and control borders within recent years. It seems necessary to evaluate the level of their effectiveness on border security. Research The present research can be described as descriptive and analytical in nature. Gathering the needed information has been done through library research and field research methods (questionnaires and interviewing authorities). The questions included in this study were as follows: 1- How effective do you describe the physical devices which are being used to control and supervise Iran''s eastern border (Khorasan Razavi province-Afghanistan) on making that border impenetrable? 2- How effective do you describe the electronic devices which are being used to control and supervise Iran''s eastern border (Khorasan Razavi province-Afghanistan) on making that border impenetrable? 3- How effective do you describe the plans (frontage defining policies، evacuating border villages، setting up border markets، defining forbidden border areas) which are being used to control and supervise Iran''s eastern border (Khorasan Razavi province-Afghanistan) on making that border impenetrable? Arguments and Numerous factors can threaten the national security of a country on borders، including border disputes and military invasion، having long border lines and enemy penetration through borders، the existence of similar languages، tribal values، and religions on both sides of the border and their anti-national activities، smuggling، especially drugs، human trafficking، border crimes، etc. As a result، different countries in the world have adopted different approaches to maintaining their border security، considering the existing threats to their borders with the neighboring countries. Different threatening factors are causing disturbances in Iran''s eastern borders، especially where this survey focuses on (Khorasan Razavi province - Afghanistan)، and this has attracted more attention toward this region. Based on these facts، Iran''s government and involved organizations are employing three methods to impose control on the border lines، these three methods include 1) physical approaches 2) electronic approaches 3) plans and policies for controlling the border lines (defining a frontage، setting forbidden areas، etc). This survey has studied every single one of these approaches. The results indicate that the management policies and methods have had an influential role in making the borders impenetrable، along the borders with Afghanistan. In more precise words، electronic supervision، physical supervision، and controlling plans have respectively played the most effective roles in making Iran''s eastern borders impenetrable.

Among various types of rural tourism in the country، one of the most important types of tourism in rural areas is second homes tourism. This article is going to analyse the effects of the expansion of second homes as a consequence of tourism development in rural areas of Eastern Bandpay villages، one of the townships of Babol countryside. Despite the growth of Second Home Tourism (SHT) in the North of Iran، particularly over the past 2 decades، there has been limited research into the nature or such effects. On the basis of importance of this phenomenon، this article is likely the first step towards investigating the matter at a local level in the area. By underestanding that SHT has different environmental، social and economic effects، the main approach of the article is the sustainable developmeant of tourism. It focuses on the environmental effect of tourism on the area. Theoretical framework: The relationship of tourism with the environment is complex، and many activities can have adverse environmental effects. Many of these impacts are linked with the construction of general infrastructure، such as roads and airports، and of tourism facilities، including resorts، hotels، restaurants، shops، golf courses and marinas. The negative impacts of tourism development can gradually destroy the environmental resources on which it depends. On the other hand، tourism has the potential to create beneficial effects on the environment by contributing to environmental protection and conservation. It is a way to raise awareness of environmental values and it can serve as a tool to finance the protection of natural areas and increase their economic importance. This research has been done on the basis of descriptive and exploratory methods. The statistical sample are the rural locals، second home owners and rural managers and decision markers. On the basis of the Cochrane Method، a Sample Size of 60 Participant was Chosen. The data were gathered by a questionnaire that was developed by the researcher. The validaty of the questionnaire was estimated by Chronbach’s alpha to be about 0. 8، which is reliable. For analysing the data، we used the Spearman Correlation test and other descriptive methods by SPSS software. Second homes Tourism، in many parts of the world has negative environmental impacts، especially in rural areas. Thev negative impact of tourism occurs when the level of visitor use is greater than the environment''s ability. Uncontrolled conventional tourism poses potential threats to many natural areas around the world. It can put enormous pressure on an area and lead to impacts such as: soil erosion، increased pollution، discharges into the sea، natural habitat loss، increased pressure on endangered species and heightened vulnerability to forest fires. Increased construction of tourism facilities has increased the pressure on these resources and on scenic landscapes. Direct impact on natural resources in the provision of tourist facilities can be caused by the use of land for accommodation and other infrastructure provision، and the use of building materials. Forests often suffer negative impacts of tourism in the form of deforestation caused by fuel wood collection and land clearing. Tourism can cause the same forms of pollution as any other industry: air emissions، noise، solid waste and littering، releases of sewage، oil and chemicals، even architectural/visual pollution. In this article، we found that there is no positive effect on the environment، due to extension of tourism; so this article is going to analyse the negative effects of second homes as a consequence of tourism development on the natural environment of villages of Eastern Bandpay villages in the Babol countryside. Conclusion and Suggestions: The results، based on the Tukey and Duncan tests، show that there are differences between the three groups of participants'' attitudes. the most convergence is seen between the views of residents and tourists about the environmental impact، and the greatest divergence is observed between the rural managers with the views of residents and tourists on second homes tourism. The most important environmental challenge to the region is: the destruction of orchards and pastures، the scarcity of water and its pollution، the destruction of beautiful landscapes، increased natural hazards (floods، Landslides)، etc. Finally، the findings show that SHT can lead to unsustainability by leaving negative effects on the environment of villages، so applying the land use zoning strategy and design the guidelines for the sustainable development can be useful in achieving rural sustainable development.

Since conflicts are often associated with economic and even strategic interests، they have wide influence over political and economic stability، and have several consequences which from this point affect regional stability. The horn of Africa، in comparison with its expanse and compared to other parts of the continent of Africa، has a lot of conflicts and political strife; among these are security crises، domestic crises، such as Sudan (the South and the Darfur crisis)، Somalia (conflicts since 1991 after the collapse of Mohamed Siad Barre''s government) and border tensions between these countries (Ethiopia and Eritrea، Eritrea and Djibouti، Somalia، Ethiopia، etc.) are worth mentioning. Many of these issues have sometimes lad to conflicts between these countries (Hosseini، 2009:141). Conflicts in the Horn of Africa region are not limited only to disputes between the countries of this area. Actually، the collapse of the USSR ended a period in which an international conflict governed the global system، and instead، internal conflicts، ethnic strife and secessionist conflict within these countries became dominant in the 1990s. This study sought to identify the nature of conflicts in the Horn of Africa and the process of formation of these conflicts considering the elemental factors of them. Research In this study، the findings are analyzed using a descriptive and analytical method، and data gathering is done with the library method in real and virtual (online) space. The roots of conflicts in Africa are numerous and complex، and in national and international arenas are hanging between social، cultural، political and economical parameters. Among the external factors، colonization is the factor that has fueled conflicts in Africa and particularly the Horn of Africa as a favorite region of superpowers. Creation of artificial boundaries and ethnic– racial divisions are key factors in Africa. The Cold War and the military equipment of the ruling regimes were other external factors leading to the continuing crisis which had imposed deaths، displacement and resulted in economical and human resources to be wasted. But the main root of the internal conflicts in the Horn of Africa are poverty and unpopular governments. While removing these two factors is a desired goal، there are global forces which are making this hard to achieve. The Horn of Africa، as one of the strategic areas of the world، is one of the most controversial regions on our planet. Conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia، the civil war in Somalia، Sudan secession and political instability، religious conflict between Christians and Muslims، as well as the conflict between Arabs and Africans، etc. are but a few examples of these conflicts. The nature of conflicts in the Horn of Africa can be classified into three groups: 19. Civil wars which were rooted in disputes and domestic competition and violence over power، like conflicts in Somalia. 20. Disputes arising from the separatist wars which were done for splitting the territory of a country to avoid its sovereign. Conflicts in South Sudan and conflicts with the separatist Oromo of Ethiopia21. Wars between states are formed when a country has territorial claims over another country. Such as Somalia''s claims over Ugaden in Ethiopia، and the conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia. The results show that the roots and sources of conflicts in the region are numerous; however، they are divided into internal and external roots. Colonialism، political instability، territorial and border disputes، poverty and the low level of economic development، as well as the involvement of regional and extra-regional powers، obstruction and Israel''s involvement، lack of effective regional and international institutions، etc. are the elemental factors of these conflicts. On the other hand، due to the fundamental and historical problems of these countries، at the time of colonialism، and the regional conflicts after that are complex and intertwined. For example، while the Darfur conflict is an internal conflict، countries such as Chad due to ethnic and Eritrea due to political interests and ideological differences are involved in it; also trans-regional powers like America and Israel are involved in the process of intervention. Darfur''s example is a true case regarding complexities and the involvement of several parties in the conflict، as in the most conflicts of the region. The key to peace and stability in Africa is the localization of the means of dispute resolution. Organization of African Unity and the international aid agencies are not in a position to properly anticipate، identify and investigate potential conflicts in remote areas. It is important that conflict factors، which may include Economic decline، unequal distribution of resources، non-democratic political systems، weak social structures، cascading refugees، ethnic conflicts and increasing weapons be identified properly.

Different structures of sand dunes can be observed among sedimentary systems both rich and poor in terms of the amount of sediment load. Barchans are one of the most well-known types of sand dunes which form under unidirectional wind conditions and in the absence of much sand on the ground. The features include individual mobile dunes of crescentic shape، the two horns of which face the direction of dune movement. They are generally regarded as occurring in areas of limited sand supply، on planar surfaces، with low precipitation، sparse vegetation cover، and where winds are narrowly bimodal in direction. Theoretical framework: The earliest studies of sand dunes by geomorphologists were focused on the classification of different types of dunes، and in particular the factors responsible for the wide variability of dune shapes. Three factors controlling the shape of dunes were identified: vegetation، variability of wind direction، and the amount of sand available. The morphological characteristics of Barchan are affected by different temporal and spatial factors. Relationship among Barchan morphometric parameters are closely tied to its three-dimensional morphology. The identification of the relations and representation of their models will be affected in recognition of the behavior and function of this landscape in nature. The purpose of this study is to provide a modeling for the estimation and calculation of Barchan plane geometry parameters، such as perimeter and area، using its morphometric parameters، and by statistical models in south of Chah Jam playa.

The study area is located in the south of Haj Ali Gholi playa، Semnan province، central Iran. Haj Ali Gholi playa، situated in the southwest side of Shahroud city and towards the south of Damghan city، is the most important playa of Semnan province. The playa is influenced by different geomorphic and climatic processes. Chah Jam Erg، with an area of about 25260 hectares، is one of the most important erg of Haj Ali Gholi playa that is located asymmetrically along the northeastern - southwestern edge of the playa with a length of 10 to 12 Km. The study area is located at latitudes between 35° 45 and 35° 50 North، and at longitudes between 54° 40 and 55° 10 East. In order to achieve the goals of this study، first، the most important morphometric parameters of 52 Barchans were measured through linear sampling in the studied field. The most important Barchan morphometric parameters include the following: width of right side، width of left side، length of right horn، length of left horn، length of windward side، length of slip face side، area، and perimeter. These parameters، except for area and perimeter، were measured using the field sampling method in the study area، according to the pattern shown in Figure 2. The estimation method of Barchan area and perimeter is as follows: first، a coordinate system was considered on the earth surface، for each Barchan. Then، the coordinates of 24 points were determined on its perimeter using a mesh network. Sampled points in the field were drawn on graph paper with a scale of 1:200. Finally، the area and perimeter of each Barchan was measured by planimeter and curvimeter، respectively. In the next step، after the formation of a data matrix، the data were modeled using regression analysis in SPSS. For this purpose، first، simple and complex regression were examined. Then، the accuracy assessment of the models is determined through comparing their validity; and finally، the most suitable was selected. The preference indexes of models are the maximum R. Square، R.، Adjusted R. Square، Sig. and the minimum Std. Error of Estimate. Findings and

According to the measurements، Barchans of the study area have a length of between 19. 5 and 307. 85 meters، and a width of between 6. 3 and 165. 6 meters، generally. In order to model the relationships among the plan geometry and morphometric parameters of Barchan، simple and complex regression methods were examined، and the most suitable relationships were reported. The results of the regression analysis between area and perimeter with width، and length of Barchan have been presented in the table below.

Rainfall increase or decrease in each area that normal rain cause drought or flood. This phenomen impacts of social and economic. drought forecast through dynamic and synoptic methods and statistical models is possible. In this paper with markov model and normal distribution of rainfal mashad synoptic station in 30 period year is statistical analyze and dry - wet periods can be predicted to be determined. On the other possibilities will increase in the dry and wet seasons، so that the probability of drought in spring 40. 2 percent، while wet it 23. 4 will be of chi square test verdict on the superiority of the Markov chain relative to the normal distribution in the region. In most cases، climate events such as droughts، wet years، floods، thunderstorms can not be definitively established، because the statistical methods، it is considered as a random process. Precipitation simply can not be predicted، and any forecast from phenomen، if it is possible to predict the statistics and data about the past. In statistical models to determine are relationship between input of data and time and based on the laws of probablitiy to occur some events are more likely. Sometimes it''s just one of the many possible scenarios that can happen. After statistical models، due to ease of use and practicality are good. athough Gumbel and Pearson models are used extensively in the analysis of drought prediction، but Markov chain model have one of the best and most efficient predicted by models of climate sciences. Theoretical framework: A simple mathematical methods (such as matrix multiplication)، possibilities of solving the associated processes are very easy، so large applications in predictions more periods of drought and wet climatology. studies on the diagnosis of the drys drought and drought periods are several aspects to be considered، One of these Markov model is to predict probablitiy of drought. Droughts and wet years using Markov chain has a higher accuracy، because the frequency of precipitation makes in the mathematical model. In this model، we formed a p، square matrix، this matrix is a square matrix with elements Pij (t) is expressed as follows: P[x (t-1) = I، x (t) = j]Pij (t) = P [x (t) = j / x (t-1) = i] = ——————————– P [x (t-1) = I] For all pairs i and j، the chain may be out of state i at time t-1 to r-mode and 1، 2، 3 = j to change at time (t). So with unknown status at (t-1) at time (t) corresponding to the transition probabilities (pi) and the (pir)، … (pir) is displayed: This study is an applied one using statical-analytical methods، and used mashhad synoptic stations of data over the period 30 years of rainfall. Data was analyzed using SPSS software pakage. Rainfall of data analyze using Markov chain model and calculated matrix and the probabilities of wet and dry periods. Based on the Markov chain، probablity of annual and seasonal drought to obtain useful information from seasonal rainfall forecasts. Discussion and The study area included Mashhad city، khorrasane razavi province، with data rainfall 30 period. Research findings show Markov chain using a statistical model can efficiently detect likely from dry periods determined annually and seasonals. After computing mean and standard deviation of rainfall Mashhad station and fitting them to the normal distribution، was determined the classes climate between dry (D) and wet conditions (W). Therefore، the intervals specified were determined between D and W in the Markov model of climate conditions and. The thresholds are calculated based on the mean and standard deviation of annual rainfall. Conclusion findings show probablity of long-term droughts 45. 6 percent، the probability of occurrence of wet periods 9 percent and probability of average rainfall (moderate conditions) 45. 5 percent. Drought probability is (sum probability of dry and semi-dry conditions) for the 50. 7 percent and probability of wet annual only 19 percent، and in 30. 3% is normal average rainfall. The long-term seasonal probablity occurrence of droughts in autumn، winter and spring، respectively: 56. 7، 46، 47. 6 per cent، While probablity of occur wet seasons، respectively: 2. 7،6. 2، 6. 1 percent. It is expected to be higher risk of droughts.

The goal of this research was to clarify the relationship between outdoor thermal comfort indices and perceived user satisfaction. The paper presents findings from a research survey in a selected Tehran urban park، Iran. Theoretical framework: One of the most affected environmental qualities is human thermal comfort in urban outdoor space. Thermal comfort in outdoor settings is a topic that، until recently، has received little research attention. The factors that have an effect on thermal comfort are objective and subjective parameters. There are four environmental variables: air temperature، mean radiant temperature، air humidity and air speed، and additionally، two personal variables influence thermal comfort: clothing insulation and the level of activity. Thermal comfort indices (empirical or rational) try to combine variables that affect thermal comfort into a single expression. Thermal comfort indices were calculated to assess the relationship between meteorological، environmental and personal variables، and also study how this relationship affects human health and activities. The main question in this study was: “Is the current Physiological Equivalent Temperature ranges valid for Tehran residents”? Three commonly used indices in a field of thermal comfort are Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET)، Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) and Standard Effective Temperatures (SET*). Fanger (1972) developed PMV for indoor climate with the aim of offering an index for rating thermal comfort at various states of activity and clothing insulation. Gagge (1986) developed ET* and suggested the new Standard Effective Temperature which is used regularly both as an indoor and outdoor thermal comfort index. Hoppe (1999) developed PET as an index which takes into account all basic thermoregulatory processes and is based on a thermo-physiological heat balance model. Mean Radiant Temperature is the most important factor influencing PET in summer. This study included outdoor thermal comfort surveys and simultaneous measurements of outdoor environmental variables such as air temperature، globe temperature، relative humidity، surface temperature، wind velocity and sky view factor. The Mean Radiant Temperature، Physiological Equivalent Temperature، Predicted Mean Vote and Standard Effective Temperatures were calculated based on the measured parameters. The study was conducted in five park areas (Melat، Saei، Laleh، Shahr and Besat) in Tehran، Iran. Field surveys were performed from October 11 to 28، 2010 and have taken place between 10 a. m. and 5 p. m.، on weekdays and weekends. The range of Physiologically Equivalent Temperature and a model for calculating Physiological Equivalent Temperature based on metrological and environmental data in Tehran were calculated. AMOS 17. 0 analysis software was used to establish Structural Equation Modeling (SEM)، and maximum likelihood estimation perform a confirmatory factor analysis. Conclusion and Suggestions: The results confirmed that Physiological Equivalent Temperature is a more reliable index for predicting thermal comfort in comparison with Predicted Mean Vote and Standard Effective Temperatures indices in outdoor space. The range of Physiological Equivalent Temperature was higher than the standard ranges in European countries. Thermal comfort was defined as Physiological Equivalent Temperature values between 24. 8°C and 28. 4°C for a person wearing typical outdoor clothing in summer. Calculating Physiological Equivalent Temperature in urban open space is a complicated task that should be done by specialists، since it requires meteorological data from field survey and complex computer modeling. One of the results of this research was determining a simple model that can calculate outdoor thermal comfort، using meteorological data from a city station and urban design elements such as sky view factor، albedo and density of green space. The below formula was designed for open space in Tehran based on the meteorological and urban design criteria: PETTehran = 21. 7 + 0. 4*Tamet - 0. 2*RHmet - 2. 1*Va - 6. 1*a + 1. 8*LC + 2. 6*SVFWhere، “Tamet” is urban air temperature (°C)، “RHmet” is urban relative humidity (%)، “Va” is local wind speed (m/s)، “a” is albedo، “LC” is the density of green space (%) and “SVF” is sky view factor (0-1).

One of widespread ways on the world is pay attention to entrepreneurship in the retrospect of policies. This action to the development context is referred to as rearrangement and reorganization of rural economy. In addition، rural entrepreneurship reinforcement plays an important role in rural development in order generate employment، technology transformation، investment persuasion، warfare promotion، etc. In this regard، psychological empowerment mechanism is the one of most important aspects on the reinforcement of rural entrepreneurship. Psychological empowerment is one of the most important aspects of the spread and enlargement of entrepreneurship. In addition، conducted studies have shown that often the attributes of entrepreneurs is acquisitive not descent. Hence، at the present time with rising of knowledge، attitude and skill of rural people can enforce rural entrepreneurship. At this relation، the most important of strategies of amplifier of rural people entrepreneurship including capacity building and facilitation and expedition growth via making movement. At this research empowerment with entrepreneurship approach have been discussed. Also، the aim of this research is to find a significant relation between empowerment and entrepreneurship. The purpose of the present study was to investigate thw role of psychological empowerment on the reinforcement of rural entrepreneurship. The research method was a descriptive/correlational design of survey type. The target population in the study was the entrepreneurs and non-entrepreneur people in Ardabil Province. Using a simple random sampling technique، 180 of the entrepreneurs and non-entrepreneurs were selected as the statistical sample. The content and face validity of the instrument was specified after several reviews and correction by the faculty members at university and several experts at administrative offices. The reliability analysis was conducted and Cronbach’s alpha values for the various sections of the instrument were estimated to be between 0. 83 and 0. 91. With regard to sustainable development، entrepreneurship is on the rural environment at economical aspects، aid to generating employment، using limited financial resources with the least amount of foreign currency and acquiring income for low revenue households from social-institutional aspects facilitating to the spread of justice، promotion of participation، guiding to social changes، arousing foresees and people potential talents’ for building، self-reliance، and aid to special groups of society and evolution of social and individual and environmental aspects، consideration of locations right، resources management، using optimal of environment، resources preservation، hazardous reduction، safety ecosystems and biodiversity at the entrepreneurship policymaking. The results of Spearman''s test showed that there was a statistically significant positive relationship between self-determination، self-efficacy، self-meaning and self-competency dimensions with agricultural sustainable development. In addition، the results of the multivariate regression revealed that 0. 92 percent of the variability in reinforcement of rural entrepreneurship stems from psychological empowerment. Finally، based on the results of the analysis، some applied recommendations have been provided.

During the 21st century، beliefs regarding extreme climatic occurrence has increased (IPCC، 2007). Nowadays، there is no newspaper that does not occasionally feature a story on climate change. Also، there are no specialized climate journals that do not include reports on world experts and scientists working on climate change and its differences in space. One of the key aspects of climate change is to understand the behavior of extreme events. Increases in extreme climate events، such as intense heavy rainfall days، have greater negative impacts on human society and natural environments than changes in climate means. IPCC (2007) concluded that changes in extremes of temperature are consistent with the observed warming of the climate. Over the past decade، a number of studies have attempted to identify observed and projected future changes in extreme precipitations. The results of the carried-out studies have shown that extreme precipitation has changed over some regions of the world. Also، the rate of change is not even. The aim of this study is the Analysis and recognition of variability in extreme precipitation indices in Iran during the last decades. Theoretical bases: The WMO CCL/CLIVAR Joint Working Group on Climate Change Detection held another meeting in Geneva in November 1999، and recommended that a list of 10 simple and feasible indices be produced. This priority list of indices should be accompanied by methodologies and guidance on how to develop them for follow-up regional capacity building workshops in 2001. It was also emphasized that the development of indices should focus on indicators which were not highly correlated، but rather contain independent information. Indices should also be considered on a regional basis and compared within and between regions in addition to those for global analyses. Further consideration should also be given to developing indices to measure changes in climate variability on a variety of space and time scales (Frich et al.، 2002). In this study، extreme precipitation indices were analyzed by daily precipitation data from 1437 synoptic، climatology and rain gauge stations. Daily precipitation data interpolated by Kriging methods for 15*15 km pixels. A matrix 15706*7187 obtained. In order to detect extreme precipitation indices، we used 11 indices for this parameter that were introduced by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI)، shown in Table 1. Table1. List of extreme precipitation indicesID Indicator name Definitions UNITSRX1day Max 1-day precipitation amount Monthly maximum 1-day precipitation mmRx5day Max 5-day precipitation amount Monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation mm SDII Simple daily intensity index Annual total precipitation divided by the number of wet days (defined as PRCP>=1. 0mm) in the year mm/dayR10 Number of heavy precipitation days Annual count of days when PRCP>=10mm DaysR20 Number of very heavy precipitation days Annual count of days when PRCP>=20mm Days Rnn Number of days above nn mm Annual count of days when PRCP>=nn mm، nn is user defined threshold Days CDD Consecutive dry days Maximum number of consecutive days with RR=1mm Days R95p Very wet days Annual total PRCP when RR>95th percentile mm R99p Extremely wet days Annual total PRCP when RR>99th percentile mm PRCPTOT Annual total wet-day precipitation Annual total PRCP in wet days (RR>=1mm) mm The results show that extreme precipitation trend is positive in the southwest and western parts of Iran; while over a small part of the north، it was found to be negative. Indices did not follow any specific trend in the eastern part of Iran. Not only has extreme precipitation increased، but also the intensity has been risen during the study period. In other words، the precipitation was concentrated in some days of the year and the high value of precipitation occurred during days with extreme and super-extreme precipitation. One of the signs of climate change occurrence is changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation indices; while for the mean، may be don’t observed any changes. Therefore، it is important that the behavior of extremes for the meteorology parameters have been assessed. In this study، 11 extreme indices of precipitation have been analyzed. Overall، the results showed that the anomaly in time of received precipitation and deviations from the mean and natural states result in disaster phenomena for an arid country like Iran. The increase of runoff and flash floods frequency in southwestern Iran are signs of change in extreme precipitation in this region.

The determination of consistency or inconsistency of urban use is one of the most basic and most complicated components of facilities allocation and intervention opportunities which results from a concept called the neighborhood and its determination needs matrix and coupled comparisons and also from selecting the major appropriate urban use. The determination of accurate locating of miscellaneous activities in a city، regarding the dynamic identity of urban issues، is undoubtedly very complicated. Thus، one of the purposes of urban lands use planning is the appropriate locating of uses and the separation of inconsistent uses. Determining the level of consistency and inconsistency، the specificities and necessities of both uses for operating usual activities must be determined and the agreement or disagreement will be specified by comparing the mentioned specificities. The neighborhood and urban lands use have external effects on each other which can be both positive and negative. The positive effect causes the efficiency to increase in which the uses and neighbor lands can reach a stable development and better lifestyle; while the negative effect results in a decrease in efficiency and leads to a decrease in the value of land use which consequently results in inconsistency between users. Theoretical bases: The evaluation of different land uses are basically considered in order to gain confidence about the logic proportionate establishment of them in a qualitative and quantitative manner. Basically، the quantitative evaluation is based on the existence of uses capitation and related standards through the consideration of present and future needs to different uses. The qualitative evaluation analyzes the determined specificities in related standards and their ratio to each other based on several matrixes، the most important of which are 4 matrixes that include consistency، dependency، capacity and utility. Since land consistency is concerned in the present study، the views about this issue are reviewed as follows: 1. They should be completely consistent، meaning that both of them should have common specificities and there should be coincidence between their activities، like 2 low concentrated houses. 2. They are partly consistent، in such a way that both uses are of the same type but different in details، like a low concentrated house and a moderate concentrated house. 3. They are partly inconsistent، meaning that their inconsistency dominates their consistency. 4. They are completely inconsistent، meaning that there is no correspondence between them and are in contrast، like an industrial and a residential use. 5. They are indifferent، meaning that two uses are indifferent from the standpoint of consistency. Evaluating the level of consistency and inconsistency، the necessities of both uses are defined based on quantitative and qualitative standards and then compared. If the obtained specificities are equal or close to each other، the mentioned uses are consistent and if not، they are accounted as partly or completely inconsistent. Operating this model، all of urban use layers in an area should be extracted from urban base maps. To evaluate the combinative model of GIS-AHP، the specificities of each urban use، the relation between uses and the interactions on each other are generally investigated and finally، the following parameters were considered as influential factors in the consistency and inconsistency of uses: sound pollution، air pollution، comfort and convenience، aesthetics and public security. The consistency between uses was divided into 5 levels. In the next section، a field called the consistency was defined in use descriptions table and each of the uses was marked from 1 to 5 according to the type of consistency with the neighbor users (regarding the mentioned factors and the consistency matrix)، After the mentioned steps، the spatial analyst of GIS software was used to design a consistency map of all land uses with neighbors in neighborhood level and in user’s number scale. Then، the Analytic Hierarchical Process was applied to determine the allocated values and remove the stochasticity of results. This model lowers the stochasticity of results since it is compared to the CR index، in which the results are taken into account as acceptable when the CR is smaller than 0. 1. The weights can be calculated individually or result from a combination of experts’ judgment. In this research، the judgment of urban planning specialist and university masters has been used and the responses were converted into a geometric average. Finally، the priorities were combined and the obtained data were input into Exper choice software. The weight of each factor was eventually obtained. This model lowers the stochasticity of results since the results are evaluated with the CR index in which the results are taken into account where the CR is smaller than 0. 1. These weights can be calculated individually or be a combination of experts judgments. In this research، the judgment of urban planning specialists and university masters in this field has been used and the results were converted into a geometric average. Finally، the priorities were combined and the obtained data were inputted in Exper choice software. The weight of each factor was obtained eventually (the CR was 0. 05). Arid areas Under construction industrial transportation installation office parkways health educational Green area cultural commercial religious house residential0/011 0/011 0/020 0/021 0/018 0/044 0/067 0/032 0/032 0/048 0/063 0/093 /0141 /0174 /0226Findings and One of the main reasons for urban planning failure in Iran is the inappropriate distribution of land uses and the lack of attention to location-spatial decision making like the consistency of urban land uses. Thus، the analysis of miscellaneous land uses locations is of a great deal of importance. Therefore، the tendency to apply models، which are able to combine a large number of qualitative and quantitative methods simultaneously، like the Analytic Hierarchical Process has extremely increased. The combination of this model with GIS frame، with the ability of spatial presentation of components، can be very useful for urban management. Based on the final obtained maps from the evaluation of land use consistency in Onsori area، it can be seen that most of the installation، equipment، industrial uses، plants and also transportation uses are placed in a completely inconsistent and inconsistent toward other uses. Regarding the tourism property of the area under study، it is recommended that the mentioned misplaced uses should be transported away from there and replaced with uses appropriate with the tourists’ convenience facilities and the area’s residents. The replacement of some uses like military and constabulary with the residential and touristic uses can lead to the stability of the area. Moreover، the relief hospital in the southern suburb of the area is completely inconsistent which the air pollution، sound pollution and inconvenience of this use are the main causes of this inconsistency.