نشریه جغرافیا و توسعه ناحیه ای
سال سیزدهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 25، پاییز و زمستان 1394)

Given its role in decreasing poverty, today tourism is known as an important factor in the development of villages and rural areas. As compared with other economic sectors, tourism has a number of advantages; it is known as a panacea for economy a solution for improving life quality in distant areas, motivation for the revitalization of settlements, a factor in improving the living conditions of rural communities, and a catalyst for, economic and social reconstruction and development. The present study investigates the effects of tourism on the development of rural areas in Golestan Province with its numerous natural, cultural and historical sites.
Theoretical Understanding the impacts of tourism on economic and social aspects varies among the residents In general, understanding the effects of tourism can be explained in terms of different theories: Social exchange theory is a basic framework for all methods and approaches. It is based on how the host community assesses the benefits and costs assumed for tourism.
Tourism life cycle theory: The development process of rural tourism is dependent on special patterns and processes. In brief, life cycle is a theory in which case the major belief is that the sale of a product is slow initially, but then it experiences a fast growth until it becomes stable and finally collapses. In this theory, assessment takes place over time.
Doxycycline resentment Index: According to this index, the developmental process leads to apathy and resentment of host community over time. If the capacity is not observed, then hostility emerges. At this stage, the plans become relatively therapeutic in nature.
Discriminating approach: According to the discriminating approach, the difference in understanding the effects or attitude toward tourists is dependent on the number of people with jobs related to tourism. In fact, analysis of the impact of tourism on rural residents can be explained in terms of a discriminating approach. This means those who operate in line with the needs of tourists have a more positive attitude towards tourists. Basically, those who are active in business and service sector have a more positive and supporting attitude to tourists in comparison with residents and officials of the public sector. Consequently, the increase of positive outcomes of tourism will positively affect the attitude of local people toward tourism, which finally results in the increase of their involvement in tourism activities and development. Given that rural workers are active in various economic sectors, and that rural activities are still based on agriculture, discriminating approach is used as the theoretical foundation of the present study.
The present study is of a cross-sectional study in which the necessary information is collected via library search and field practices. The population of the study involves heads of households living in 13 target villages in Golestan Province. To this end, 384 participants were selected Cochran formula as the sample size. Data were collected using Excel and SPSS softwares and were analyzed using chi-square tests, U-Mann Whitney, and Kruskal-Wallis tests.
Findings and To understand the economic impact of tourism development on the target villages, change of the jobs among the rural household heads were examined; it was found that as tourism improved, 15% of the number of workers in the agricultural sector decreased and the number of service jobs increased. However, based on discriminating approach and the differences of understanding the impacts of tourism, it was found that rural workers in service and industry sector enjoy more benefits due to the fact that they are more exposed to tourists. Therefore, they attributed a more positive role to tourism in improving economic and social indicators as compared with other agricultural workers and government employees.
Conclusion and Suggestions: According to the findings of the field studies, the role of tourism in making economic changes has been viewed as positive and constructive, and it has also caused as shift in the job orientation of people from agriculture to service and industry sector, which consequently has increased their job variety and income. However, it also followed negative impacts of inflation. In addition, it triggers agricultural land use change. Although tourism development has caused a number of changes from social aspects and has been effective in raising awareness, interaction, and cultural integration (familiarity with other cultures), and further participation of women in rural communities, villagers still believe that it has failed to play a role in making rural expatriate workers return to their villages. According to discriminating approach, the results have significant differences among the occupational groups. In other words, workers of industry and the private sector services had a more positive idea on the role of tourism from economic and social aspects as compared with other occupational groups. For the purpose of tourism development, accelerating the improvement of access has been suggested as the most important problem of the villagers in question.

Today the irregular growth of the population and its illogical distribution across natural and cultural environments of different communities has necessitated sustainable development in response to the unstable conditions of cities. Mashhad is a city with fast growth and development but with no clear plan, especially after land reform program. In this sense, the city is now extremely under the influence of dangerous outcomes of this ill fast growth, having a large number of environmental, social, and economic implications. So far, several designs of development have been developed for the city; however, despite taking such decisions, disperse urban growth and its implications still exist due to lack of scientific attention to urban growth and lack of proper theoretical patterns. Therefore, it seems that urban smart growth strategy, as a response to the sprawl, could improve the quality of the urban environment in Mashhad. The aim of this paper is to determine the rank and smart urban growth indices of the twelve districts of Mashhad based on the use of fuzzy logic. In this article, we will answer two main questions: 1) How does each district in Mashhad enjoy the indices of smart urban growth indicators? 2) Is there inequality between different districts of Mashhad regarding the integrated indicators of smart urban growth?
Theoretical Framework: Promoting the idea of smart urban growth is attributed to growth management in the 1970s and 1980s (Gabriel et al., 2006). The late 1990s witnessed smart urban growth as a new approach to urban planning in the United States of America and the urban growth has been used widely as a compressed pattern regardless of dispersion since then (Batisani & Yarnal, 2011; Danielsen & et al., 1999). The major theories of urban development focus on the relationship between the urban form and life quality. Such theories provide a framework for decision making with the goal of having a dynamic, diverse, pedestrian-oriented, environmentally friendly and economically sound society through the proper use of land and effective transport planning (Arku, 2009; Durand et al., 2011; Pyatt, 1999). Concerning the ten principles of smart urban growth, items such as the mixed land, the use of compact design in the construction, creating a variety of opportunities and housing options, creating neighborhoods suitable for pedestrians, creating a distinctive and attractive communities with a strong sense of place, protecting open spaces, farmland, natural beauty and environmentally vulnerable areas, strengthening and directing development of existing communities, providing a variety of transportation options, encouraging local communities, and the beneficiaries to participate in the development of decisions along with the predictable and fair and cost-effective development of decisions are all taken into consideration (Smart growth network, 2010).
This research was a cross sectional descriptive study. The research was carried out in Mashhad, and the population included 12 different districts in Mashhad according to the divisions published by the municipality in 2006. The examined indicators included 35 factors such as population, economic, physical indices as well as land use, transportation and environmental protection. The initial data needed for this research was obtained through the study of documents and General Population and Housing Census (2006), Mashhad Statistic Report (2010), Mashhad Transport Statistics (2010) and the related organizations. Then the data were analyzed using fuzzy cluster analysis in Excel and SPSS software.
Discussion and Findings: According to the results of the twelve districts of Mashhad, district 8 with a fuzzy score of 0.517 and District 5 with a score of 0.207 were respectively the first and the last city based on integrated smart growth indices. The mean of integrated smart growth indices for urban areas in Mashhad were estimated as 30%. . Districts 1, 2, 7, 8, 9 and 11 had indices higher than the mean, and Districts 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, and Samen had indices below the mean. Based on the fuzzy values and critical values, Districts 1, 2, 3, and 4 were lower than the critical value respectively in 77.2, 71.9, 81.2, and 79% of urban smart growth indices. District 5 was higher than the critical value only in 2.14% of urban smart growth indices. Districts 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 and Samen were in critical conditions in 93.3, 82.9, 57.8, 64.5, 79.4, 72, and 76.2% of the selected indicators respectively. According to fuzzy values of each index, the critical value of smart growth indices was estimated as 70%. All Districts in Mashhad were below this value and thus in critical conditions. The findings also showed that the greatest difference among Mashhad urban Districts concerned environmental and transportation factors. Therefore, according to the results of the cluster analysis, Mashhad urban areas were divided into two main groups in terms of smart urban growth indices. The first group included the north and west of Mashhad; this group was consisted of regions with an acceptable level of smart urban growth indices. The second group included the east of Mashhad with a poor level of smart urban growth indices.
Conclusion and Suggestions: The results of this study indicate the unsustainable growth model of Mashhad as a metropolis. Hence, to achieve sustainable urban development, it is necessary that urban smart growth strategy be used as the dominant strategy in Mashhad urban development. For this purpose, given the differences of various Districts of Mashhad with respect to the level of smart urban growth indices, it is necessary to give priority to Districts with poor indices, such as Districts 4, 5 and 6.

Neo-tectonics is the study of horizontal and vertical motions of Earth’s crust originating from the late periods of Neogen and Quaternary. Many researchers have defined tectotecnic as “the beginning of Earth’s crust motions after the earliest orogenic phase” (Stipancikova et al., 2008, p. 68). Since there is no possibility of having access to the old seismic reflection data in many areas and some methods of measuring active tectotecnics are very expensive (seismic methods), the use of morphometric indexes to detect and determine the active tectonics is of great importance. Therefore, “geomorphic indexes are useful materials to analyze Earth’s forms and to measure the tectotecnic activities in many areas” (Guarnier & Pirrota, 2008, p. 265).
By studying the geologic maps of the region, we realize that the study area is located in the central part of Iran and the tectonic zones of central Iran. Building blocks in this part of Iran are the result of young Alpine tectonic process. The general trend in the main buildings in the geological areas is in line with the general trend of tectonic zones in Sanandaj - Sirjan and Zagros.
The area has a complex tectonic faults due to numerous conditions, including Doruneh Fault in the north, Nain Fault, the tissue in the East and its most important fault, namely Rastgard Fault in Qom, Zefreh Fault located along the north-west and south-east, which crosses a tectonic valley in the city of Natanz and probably plays a role in the development of Eocene magmatic and volcanic activities. The other tectonic characteristics of Qom -Ardakan is located in the southern part of the study area. From the viewpoint of tectonic areas, the troughs have been developed during two structural stages in Oligo-Miocene and Pliocene periods.
Theoretical Framework: Geologists and particularly geomorphologists use geomorphic indexes to analyze the Earth forms and to measure tectotecnic activities in various areas of the world.
Geomorphic indexes in all over the world, especially in arid and semi-arid areas have been investigated by many researchers, including Bull and Mcfadden (1997), Wells (1998), Ramirez-Her (1998), Couong and Zushiewicz (2001), Silva (2003), Chen (2003), Zovili, Konstantinidi, and Koukouvelas (2004), Verrious, Zigouri, and Kokkalas (2004), Harkins, Anastasio, and Pazzalia (2006), Guarnierri and Pirotta (2008), El Hamdouni, Irigary, Fernandez, Chacon, and Keller (2008), Kale and Shejawalker (2008), and Gurbus and Gurer (2008).
In this study, first the library research method was used to collect the articles, books, and internal and external sources. And the topographic maps 1/50000 and sattelite picture ETM 2008 were also used to consider and limit the area. Meanwhile, geology maps 1/100000 was used to extract faults layer and DEM boundation for many measures. As for the analysis process, 11 quantitative methods measuring the base of tectotecnic activities (depending on the geologic, lithologic, and hydrogic conditions) along with 15 qualitative methods were used for tectonical descriptive analysis (see Tables 1 and 2). In the next phase, the quantitative methods in relation to the studied basins were calibrated using the basic information. As such, we attempt to make sure that each of the methods conforms with the considered boundation and that we use parameters which other researchers of geomorphology have used less frequently. In the end, we attempt to measure indexes, basin form, bulk of basin surface, p (trachom of superfical floodway), flexibility (BR), hypsometri of basin (HI), and standard microfacies (SMF) through an experimental method using the GIS ARC 9.3 software.
In this study, the study area is divided into 4 subbasins due to the different geological and geomorphologic features of the Degh-sork watershed and the existence of three clear geomorphologic unites (mountain, plain, and palaya). Then, the tectonic activities of the area were evaluated by using 6 geomorphic indexes based on the morphology of the basin and the drainage network. In doing so, the index of Relative Active Tectonic (Lat) was used.
Conclusions & Suggestions: The relation of Lat=S/N includes parameters which can be measured in the following: “Lat= the index of Relative Active Tectonic, S= the total classes of the measured indexes of geomorphic activities, and N= the number of measured indexes of different classifications of Lat index” (Hamdouni et al., 2008, p. 171), which are measured in the following: 1

Temperature leaves undeniable effects on human activities and natural processes. The analysis of average maximum temperature and the highest temperatures related to the heat wave phenomenon is of great importance. The most important goals of this study include the investigation of the geographical distribution of the maximum average temperatures and extreme temperatures based on the time series and the gathered trends, changes, and differences with regard to the ripples and geographical latitude. Average maximum temperatures and the highest temperatures are the temperature variables that their increase or decrease affects the related decisions and the short-term and long-term planning in agriculture, architecture and urban development, Industry, and Labor. This study investigates maximum temperatures of Iran between 2005-1966, then, it offers the time changes and geographical patterns in the form of zoning patterns.
Theoretical Framework: The average maximum temperature in the days of a month, aseason, or a year occurs usually after the time of maximum radiation (afternoon), which results in what we call monthly, seasonal or yearly maximum temperature. The absolute maximum temperature is the highest temperature achieved in a given interval (Zolfaghari, 2004) which is perhaps the heat waves representative of the area entering in the month in question.
In the present study, to zone the average maximum and absolute maximum temperature for a period of 40 years (1966-2005), IDW maps with the same value of average absolute temperature, maximum and seasonal differences in decades were plotted and interpreted using the GIS software.
The analysis of absolute maximum temperature during four decades shows that absolute maximum temperature of the southern parts of the country has more absolute maximum temperature in contrast with the North in the first decade. In the second decade, the highest temperature happened in the South, South-West and South-East, and the lowest temperature has been observed in the North West. In the third period, the highest absolute maximum temperature in the Southwest and lowest absolute maximum temperature has been observed in the northwest. In the fourth period, similar to the last decades, the highest absolute maximum temperature is in the southwest, and the lowest absolute maximum temperature is in the north of the country. The average maximum temperature in the first, second, third, and fourth highest maximum temperature in the south and south west of the country, and the lowest maximum temperature has been observed in the northwest. After the analysis of the average peak seasons during -1966-2005, it became clear that the highest mean maximum temperature of the first and second spring occurred in the south east and south west and the lowest mean maximum temperature occurred in the northwest.
In addition, the summer maximum temperature dropped from south to north over the four decades. In the second decade, the south west of the country is faced with decreasing temperature. In the four decades of autumn the highest temperatures are in south, south east and south west of the country, whereas in the second decade they are in the south, and in the third and fourth decades they are in the south and south west of the country, and the lowest temperatures in the four decades have been observed in the north west of the country. Moreover, from the south to the north, the mean maximum temperature dropped. The highest mean maximum temperature in the winter of all four decades have been observed in the south, south east and south west, and the lowest mean maximum temperature occurred in the north west, and in the autumn from the south to the north the maximum temperature dropped. In the fourth decade the lowest mean maximum temperature have been increased over the past decades.
Conclusions & Suggestions: The Investigation during the study period showed that although the absolute maximum temperature of the country has decreased, the maximum average temperature has increased. In different seasons, regions in the north, north west and central, which have an industrial town in contrast with the mountains in this area, have higher rates of increase in mean maximum temperature. Also,the maximum temperature has no change in the low-lying areas in the south of the country,. The increasing trend of the average maximum temperature in Iran with increasing rate of 2.69 in winter is more than the other three seasons. An increasing in the maximum temperatures in winter may be related to the arrival of heat the waves in the counry.

Climate change refers to the increase or decrease in the average climatic factors over a long period of time (i.e. more than 30 years). Today, climate change has become a human concern and the scientific community are already aware of this fact. Global temperature has followed an unprecedented increase over the last hundred years. Based on synoptic climatology, climatic parameters and its changes are related to atmospheric patterns. In the atmospheric upper levels, the role of dynamic factors and atmospheric circulation is dominant (Alijani, 2006; Yarnal, 1993). ”Understanding climate change through atmospheric patterns is closer to reality. The surface pressure patterns affect the moisture and the heat of the earth's surface, and there is uncertainty in climate change” (Lolies, 2007, p. 361). The arrival of the wave of westerly winds follows the cold period and the instability of weather in Iran. The study of Iran’s climate change with synoptic patterns during the cold period is of great importance. Part of the studies in the literature include the investigation of climate change in the behaviors of climatic indices, the positive trend of North Atlantic Oscillation since 1979-1989 and northern hemisphere activity centers (Mote, 1998; Ostermeier &Wallace, 2003; Rauthe, Hense, & Paeth, 2004), the positive trend of the Mediterranean Oscillation Index, the negative trend of meridional circulation of Mediterranean and non-trend of the Eastern Atlantic Jet in the late 1980s (Dunkeloh, 2003), the shift of the East/West Center of Asian Summer index to the northwest and southeast and the reduction of their power after 1970 (Wu, 2002), the positive trend of East Atlantic Western Russia index, a reduction of pressure in high-pressure center of Siberia after 1970 (Panagiotopoulos, Shahgedanova, Hannachi, & Stephenson, 2005), the negative trends of North Atlantic Oscillation in winter, an increase in anticyclone and a decrease in cyclone in Europe since 1960 to the early 1990s related to the severity of zonal flow (positive index) from 1960s to early 1990s, and an increase in the maintenance of pressure patterns and the stronger blockings in the 1990s with the rising trend of Summer anti-cyclones (Kysely & Huth, 2006), the positive trend of North Atlantic Oscillation and the Azores center for the 500 Hp Europe is over the past 40 years in winter and spring (Casty, Raible, Stocker,Wanner, & Luterbacher, 2007). The aim of this study is thus to identify the climate change in Iran in relation to the atmospheric indices in the middle levels.
The climatic indices of the cold period (Alijani & Doostan, 2015) were determined through analyzing the daily data of the reconstructed geo-potential height of 500 Hp from 1948 to 2010 in fall (September, October, & November) and winter (December, January, & February) collected from the database of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) with a resolution of 2.5 degrees for geographic areas of 10 to 70 degrees in north and 10 to 80 degrees in east (725 cells) using Principal Component Analysis. The changes of indices were investigated along with the factor scores or their time series in 500 Hp. This series was investigated on daily, o, monthly, yearly, and five-day average scales during the study period; however, according to the lack of trend at all scales, annual time series in autumn and winter were used to study the changes along with the selection of a prediction model. This series shows the changes of each of the indices during the study period. To examine the trends in time series, the Box Jenkins models were used. The changes of each of the series over time were determined and the appropriate model for the series was fitted. This statistical model predicts the future time series for each of the indices.
Climatic indices of autumn are located from Western Europe to Western Mediterranean, from Northern Siberia to the Balkans, and from Central Siberia to Central Asia. Given the order of climatic importance in Iran, indices of Northern Siberia, Western Europe, Anatolia, Central Asia and Central Siberia are in autumn. In winter, climate indicators are located on Central Asia, Western Mediterranean, the North Sea, Eastern Mediterranean, and Central Siberia. “These centers control the climate of Iran with special atmospheric patterns during the cold half of the year” (Alijani & Doostan, 2012, p. 255). The results showed that the time series of climate indices of the cold period lack a trend, and the index of Central Asia has a weak and insignificant trend. The time series of first order having a negative autocorrelation show the annual fluctuations (yearly changes). The time series of indices during autumn and winter with autoregressive model show distribution best fitting and validity. This model is the best predictor of changes in the time series; the predictive modeling of the time series of Northern Siberia index is the autoregressive sixth order (AR 1, 6). The time series of Western Europe is matched with the third-order autoregressive model (1, 3) AR. The time series of Anatolia index are in conformity with the sixth-order autoregressive model. The time series of Central Asia are totally in conformity with the fourth-order autoregressive model AR (1, 4). Of all the ARIMA models, the autoregressive model is the best model of predicting the climate changes in the winter time series of Central Asia, Western Mediterranean, and the North Sea indices in which the time series of indices are in conformity with the time series of predicting modeling.
Conclusion and Suggestion: Indices of the cold period are in conformity with the location of the frequent westerly winds pattern in atmospheric middle layers with trough, ridge, cutoff low, and the blocking of westerly wind arrangement. These geographic regions in the atmospheric middle layers with the stable and unstable atmosphere and the movement of air masses control the climate in their surrounding areas. The time-series of these indices do not show any significant positive or negative changes during the study period (63 years) in autumn and winter. The temporal behavior of these indices include the annual changes and variability. In addition, the negative first-order autocorrelation in relation to the whole time-series has confirmed the annual changes (yearly) of the indices. These results are in agreement with the previous studies in other regions of the planet, including the insignificant change of climatic indices in the Middle East, the Caspian Sea pattern (in accordance with the position of Western Europe-North-Sea Caspian Index in this study), the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Mediterranean Oscillation Index in 500 Hp level (Dunkeloh, 2003), the lack of trend of pressure patterns in 500 Hp in Europe and North Atlantic (Casty, Raible, Stocker, Wanner, & Luterbacher, 2007), and the insignificant changes in pressure patterns in 500 Hp level in Iran. Box-Jenkins models indicated these changes and fluctuations in each of the time series and confirmed the lack of a significant trend in this series. Fluctuations in each of the time series of climate indices in Iran are in conformity with autoregressive (AR) model. This model can predict future changes in the time series with different orders in each series.

Today strengthening middle-sized cities in the developing countries for the sake of developing surrounding areas and distributing services and facilities in rural areas has occupied a special place in urban planning. The purpose of strengthening and developing middle cities is to enhance the economy of rural areas and prevent the immigration of villagers to big cities, and to spread the benefits of economic growth in deprived areas. The current article sets out to ascertain to what extent Iranshahr as a middle-sized city has been successful in distributing the population, services, and facilities, in developing the surrounding rural areas, and in creating the sustainable development between Iranshahr and the rural areas in its sphere of influence.
Theoretical framework: Urban-rural interaction is one of the interest areas of the researchers such as Randinli and Lipton. Sociologists are also actively engaged in discovering the relationship between the city and the village. They deeply focus their attention on the changes occurring in rural areas. A great part of discussions in the literature takes into consideration the spatial distances between the city and the village. Admittedly, middle-size cities are the leading cause of activating urban network, attracting immigrants, and providing job opportunities accordingly. "Randynly as one of the positive-thinking experts emphasizes on the role of cities, especially the middle-size cities, in providing a range of services for the surrounding areas" (Lynch, 2005, p.18). Thus, the middle-sized cities have a great role in transiting and strengthening in development; this role then allows each city to have its own function in developing and using the capabilities of the regional urban network, in attracting immigrants who are heading to big cities, and in providing job opportunities and working conditions for employment.
The research methods used in this article are practical and descriptive-analytical. The data were gathered mostly through libraries. To assess the role of Iranshahr as a middle-sized city in developing the rural areas, a variety of models were used, including the residential development and data-flow analysis. In addition, statistical tests such as t-test and regression analysis were used to explore the role of Iranshahr from economic, social, cultural, and infrastructural perspectives.
In order to determine the developmental level of the rural areas surrounding the city of Iranshahr, Morris Model was chosen. Due to the close proximity to the city, it has benefitted from the highest quality of the facilities to develop. The initial estimate of development in the villages of Iranshahr indicates the developed villages on the outskirt of the city have benefited from the most services. The villages of East Bampoor and Bazman were recognized as developing while the villages of West Bampoor, Daman, Abter were recognized as less developed and the village of Abraise was recognized as underdeveloped. The model results show that the development of Iranshahr has been imbalanced, because only one village out of several villages is developed while other villages don not benefit from sufficient services. To find the relations between Iranshahr and rural areas and to observe their degree of dependency, we have used the trade, educational, and health services trends in this research. The analysis of different trends of economic, administrative, educational and health show that Iranshar has a considerable share in providing services to the villagers. Wholesale and retail markets, banks and financial institutions, various agencies, academic centers, and the specialized training facilities and community health centers have a major contribution to the provision of the services in the rural areas of the city; in fact, about 70 percent of the respondents have declared that they visit Iranshar daily, weekly or monthly to get their services. Therefore, a strong trend was found between the rural areas and Iranshahr.
Conclusion and Suggestions: Middle-size cities have a positive role in regional development as part of the city system and the link between big cities and small rural areas, offering various functions such as service, commercial, industrial and cultural functions. According to the results, Iranshahr has not been successful in developing rural areas. It can be concluded that services and facilities are needed to develop rural areas and establish a balanced population. Furthermore, there should be an appropriate planning based on the needs of the rural areas.
1. Developing and equipping the city of Iranshahr through different types of services and facilities such as educational, medical, and cultural are highly essential. When these conditions are fulfilled, Iranshar can meet the needs of people and prevent immigrants from rural areas.
2. Preparing comprehensive regional program, developing and strengthening the residential areas through different kinds of services seems necessary. This feature helps greatly to distribute a balance between population and services at the city level.
3. Strengthening and equipping telecommunication networks along with the rural transporting system should be taken into consideration, because rural areas face a lot of limitations, including paved-roads, postal services, and the Internet.

Green spaces and urban parks are very important due to their recreational uses and also their role in maintaining the ecological balance of urban citizenship. Given the increasing demand for the use of parks and public green spaces, the analysis of the factors affecting demands in terms of economic and social can help to predict the recreational and entertaining needs. However, the parks are failed to pricing market and valuation. So, willingness to pay (WTP) as an economic tools- the amount of money that the consumer intend to pay for the use of the services - can be a guide for market pricing particularly for non-market services. “Willingness to pay” can be estimated directly by asking people about their intendness to pay for services and also indirectly by calculating the costs they pay for these. Assessing the “willingness to pay” for services available in main parks in Mashhad city can provide a functional guideline for other parks specially about non markettig servicess. The was carried out to investigate the factors influencing the “willingness to pay” in three main parks in Mashhad (Mellat – Koohsangi – Vakilabad).
Theoretical Framework : Economic valuation provides data to differentiate between the inefficient use of environmental goods and services with the real value of these resources" in the process of decision-making, which finally leads to optimal management. Valuation is based on individuals prefernces and can determine the monetary value of non-market goods and services.The economic value of urban parks is divided into two categories: use value and non-use values. The use value includes direct use value, indirect use value and selected value n line with this, non-use value includes the existence value and value of future generations. The overall valuation methods can be divided into three main 1) valuation based on the market 2) valuation alternative market 3) valuation hypothetical market. Given the nature of parks and seesights and the lack of real market for their goods and services, using the third approach, i.e the hypothetical market is used more than other models. One of the sub-methods of market hypothesis model is conditional valuation.
Goldstein (1999) argued that the multilevel modeling cosiders complex structures of socio-economic life in a real world. Multilevel models (hierarchical) include of various structures: the horizontal (spatial), vertical cross-sectional time series, cross and repeated. In multilevel models, one or more explanatory variables coefficients are considered as a random or variable in order to design complex real world in the model. Thus, Multilevel models are based on patterns with variable coefficients. Given to the structure of multi-level modeling, we can suggest that variance-covariance structure of model changes with respect to hierarchical structure. A two-level model for data with binary dependent variable (binomial) with an explanatory variable is conceptually similar to simple multilevel modeling, however the dependent variable is binary. Therefor, is a binary response variable for samples i in cluster (group) of j and is an explanatory variable in cases.
The results of the percent correctly classified of our model is about 65.29 percent that indicates the high power of model forcast. The results demonstrate that visit duration variables, city of origin and level of education are not significant at 90 percent confidence level. The coefficient of origin city variable has three separate coefficient values which calculates for each park by summing coefficients with random sec component, however, this variable is not significant at 90 percent confidence level. In line with our results age is negatively associated with “WTP”. Older individuals are less likely to pay for use of the park. Gender shows negative and significant effect at 95 percent confidence level. According to sign of coefficient and odds ratio it can be suggested that men are less likely than women (0.7093) in their willingness to pay for the use of park.
Income level is positively (at the level of 1%) associated with “WTP”. Individuals with higher income are more likely of willingness to pay. Another variable is index of satisfaction of park that shows a positive and significant effect (at the level of 1%). The results of the field survey of mean of WTP for the three parks study reveals that he average willingness to pay per visitor is 13,995 Rials in Mellat Park, 4935 Rials in Koohsangi park and 2270 Rials in Vakilabad park.
Conclusions & Suggestions: Suggested recommendation based on our study can be summarized as follow: 1) improvement facilities and services in the park, especially for older people,2) identify the incentive of men for going to the park, and providing services and facilities accordingly, 3) prepare opportunities for children to play and 4) finally improve security indices (moral and financial).

The peri-urban villages are scenes of the formation, growth, and the continuity of opportunities and threats affecting the environmental quality and the way of supplying the needs of residents. Thus, assessing the livability of these villages as a new concept is of great importance in the literature of settlement planning. The study areas in this study include the peri-urban villages in the city of Varamin and in the vicinity of four cities in this region. What is considered in this study is the individual variables affecting the perception of livability in the peri-urban villages of Varamin located in Tehran Metropolis.
Theoretical Framework: Livability is a concept related to the number of concepts and terms such as sustainability, quality of environment, healthy communities, etc. Although definitions vary in different communities, the defined objectives of planning should be used to create native standards for livability. Livability is often used for defining the different dimensions of community and common experiences; it is usually focused on human experiences of place within the specified time and place. In addition, livability as a concept can be expanded or limited depending on the context in which it is defined. However, life quality is often at the center of attention in this concept and includes a wide range of measurable indicators with proven components including density, transportation, security, and sustainability. Livability, however, is an interconnected concept derived from the economic, environmental and social concepts, which aims at preventing its one dimensional and reductive state. Therefore, there should be a network of relationships between various domains in terms of livability standards. Vergunst (2003) introduced a framework for livability in Aspinge rural area in Sweden. In this context, the livability is a product of interaction between local residents, community life, service level, physical location, and local economy. Local population, demographic structure (age and gender), and lifestyle are among important factors in this regard. Service level refers to communications services, schools, stores, and homes for the elderly.
Research method used in the study is analytical-descriptive. Indicators and indexes of livability in urban and rural settlements extracted and then complete with the conditions in the per-urban villages. In this study, Cochran method for sampling is used. Based on the number of resident families living in these villages, 380 people were selected. To increase the accuracy of the results, 400 questionnaires were designed, distributed, and completed. , Meanwhile, some experts were consulted with to assess the validity of the questionnaire. As for But for reliability of the 30 questionnaire provided and distributed between the residents in four rural villages in the vicinity of each of the cities and towns in the cities of Varamin, Qarchak,, Pishva and Javadabad. To measure the reliability of questionnaire, Cronbach's alpha was used. The Cronbach’s alpha obtained in this study was 0.955.
The relationship between individual characteristics and livability indices has been studied in this study as the main dependent variable. Thus, Phi and Cramer's correlation method was used to explore the variable of education with a ordinal scale, the variables of age and the duration of residence in the village with an interval scale, and also the variables of gander and occupation with a nominal scale. There is no significant relationship between the variable of gender with any of the indicators except for entertainment and leisure time; however, there is a statistically significant relationship between the variable of occupation in the individuals in charge and the indicators of public transport and green and open spaces. Of all education levels of respondents with no livability indicators, there is no statistically significant relationship. Finally, there is a relationship between the duration of residence in the village and the indicators of employment, income, and the sense of continuity and belonging to the place and its landscape. No relationship was found between the age, education, and livability in the villages under study. In fact, people of different ages and with different levels of education have the same attitudes towards the environmental needs, which can bring about positive aspects of the issue. This is due to the fact that the difference in attitudes between people of different ages in these villages is low, whereas low-literate and illiterate people are also aware of their civil rights and their attitudes do not show any significant differences with the attitudes of people with higher education and/or university education.
It is a general assumption that per-urban villages provide more appropriate and desirable levels of livability for their residents due to the special geographical locations; however, the results of the study indicate that the situation in per-urban villages of Varamin is quite different.

Land use suitability assessment is necessary to prevent and imporove environmental issues. Land use planning provides a basis for decision making in spatial planning and land-use management. Selecting the appropriate land-use type and pattern according to ecological suitability of lands is the main purpose of watershed management and can lead to the control and decrease of the undesirable effects of natural disasters. Land-use planning provides the basis for considering the land management and also the natural and anthropogenic hazards necessary for the developmental process of land management. The arranement of relationships among people, land and human activities, and the sustainable utilization of human and environmental resources is important to improve the material and spiritual conditions of the community wellbeing over time, which is one of the main objectives of ecological potential assessment.
Theoretical framework: Land-use planning provides a basis for decision making in land-use management. The residential areas are affected by the changing dynamics of land use through an increase in the density of the area. Population growth increases the needs for recreation and accommodation, which leads to degradation of soil and natural resources. The increasing population growth along with the need to ensure food security in Iran is one of the main reasons of the conversion of forests and grasslands into agricultural and settled regios of the counry. Different criteria can be employed to plan the residential areas and the land-use suitability assessment at both local and national levels. Land use influened by dynamic human needs and environmental features varies with changes in lifestyle. The persistent engagement and conflict between human and environmental needs causes changes in land usage patterns, structures, and comopision at different spatial levels and time frames.
The present study was conducted in Ziarat Watershed located in the southwest of Gorgan City, Golestan Province. The intensive settlement growth and land-use conversion has occurred in Ziarat Watershed due to its favorable climatic condition and geographical location. Nowadays, the Ziarat watershed is in a critical condition due to the influence of human societies in terms of tourism and settlement development and it is necessary to conduct environmental assessment studies before implementation of development programs. The suitability of land resources was evaluated using the Systematic Model of Iran and the GIS tools.
According to the land-use map (2001), the extent of residential areas has been calculated to be 111.82 hectare. While the residetial aeas reached to 235.17 hectare in 2011 due to the extensive construction of new buildings and villas. Three residential categories were identified, including the favorable areas, the appropriate areas, and the inappropriate areas. The analysis of favorable and appropriate categories showed that the route development does not comply with the proposed development appraoch. The amount of overall Kappa index (0.3164) was within the range of low conformity, and the partial vakues of Kappa index were 0.2037 and 0.161 for the favorable and appropriate categories, respectively.To sum up, the both favorable and appropriatecategories were in the poor range of conformity. The results indicate that 4.46% and 4.52% of the study areas were assigned as suitable for the first and second categories, respectively, whereas the remaining areas (91.76%) can be consider as an unsuitable category for settlement growth. The comparison of settlement in the categories shows that the current condition of settlement growth is not in conformity with the ecological planning program. According to the results, the value of overall Kappa index was 0.3164, which can be assumed as a low-agreement settlement category. Also the values of Kappa index for the first and second categories were 0.2037 and 0.161, which fall into weak categories with low conformity. According to Kappa index values, the residential development does not comply with the current status while the developmental conditions of the residential areas, roads, and tourist facilities have damaged the study area. In the study area, the agricultural lands and forests restricts the residential development according to the results of the Systematic Model of Iran.
Conclusion and Suggestions: The current settlement development categories are not in conformity with the ecological planning program based on the obtained Kappa index value (0.3164). This kind of evaluation can be used to assist the designers of settlement development to plan to reduce the damages caused by natural hazards at local and regional scales. Ineffective management and inappropriate pattern of land-use patches regarding the ecological suitability has complicated the issue of the dvelopment of residentail areas. In fact, the ecological capability of development in residential areas was considered asa comprehensive approach to all ecological parameters of land management. In this sense, physical and biological parameters were identified and analysed; therefore, the sustainable developmente of residential areas include activities to stop or reduce the degradation, or at least slow down the destructive effects of previous undesirable utilizations in order to move towards the sustainable management of residentail areas at a watershed scale.

The flow of tourism develops depending on the supply of tourism product. Resorts and residential centers are one of the main factors attracting tourists in order to use the tourism product of a region. Optimal locating of residential centers, especially in cities and areas which are in the way of passing tourists, has an important role in the visitors’ using of these centers. Bojnord and its surrounding areas have a high potential for supplying tourism products to different social classes at the national and international level, including their pathway connecting the east to the northeast areas, especially Mashhad, and to the northern beaches, their annual passing of millions of tourists, their eye-catching nature, and their cultural and historical tourist attractions. A major issue which has not received due attention is the very limited use of the economic potentials of tourists for the economic development of Bojnord and its suburbs. Therefore, the current study aims to identify the suitable areas for locating and constructing tourist and residential centers in Bojnord and its surroundings.
Theoretical Framework: Identifying the locations suitable for developing touristic activities, especially recognizing and introducing suitable locations for constructing tourist and residential centers is one of the most common applications of Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Historical records indicate that the applications of GIS in the field of programming in tourism management first started at the beginning of the 1990s; however, its development has not happened quickly (Farajzadeh Asl, 2008). Many studies have been conducted in Iran and other countries about the locating of activities by GIS and its efficiency has been approved accordingly. For instance, Jeneiti (2007) aims to identify suitable the areas for ski resort in Rocky mountains; Hantli (2011) aims to identify suitable pathways for biking in Queensland; and Hosseini, Kashef and Seyyed Ameri (2013) endorse the efficiency of GIS by identifying the suitable locations for building sport complexes in Saghez, Iran.
The current study has been conducted using the descriptive-analytical method and with a functional approach to the suburbs of Bojnord, located at North Khorasan, Iran. The data of this study have been collected through documentary and field studies and analyzed using Analytic Network Process (ANP). The results of data analysis have been introduced as functional layers for decision making using the GIS software.
Analytic Network Process is a comprehensive and powerful method for accurate decision-making introduced by Saaty (1996). Since ANP is a public and developed form of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), it has all the positive features of AHP, including the simplicity, flexibility, and utilization of quantitative and qualitative criteria in a simultaneous fashion, and the capacity to analyze the compatibility of judgments. In addition, ANP can consider the complex relationships (interdependence and feedback) between and among decision-making factors using the network structure instead of the hierarchical structure (Melon, 2008). In general, ANP, in combination with GIS, performs the locating process in five main steps: 1- Building the model and converting the issue into a network structure
2- Forming a binary comparative matrix and determining the priority vectors
3- Forming the super-matrix and converting it into the limit super-matrix
4- Overlapping of layers and selecting the suitable areas
5- Accommodating the results of the locating pattern with the realities on the ground
One of the most important issues which should be considered after the selection and location through GIS is to investigate to what extent the determined areas comply with the reality and situation of the area (Varesi et al., 2008). The more the identified locating factors comply with the ground realities, the more satisfying the locating results would be (Farajzade Asl, 2009). After accommodating the results with the realities on the ground, given all the effective parameters and the overlapping of the final map with the recommended map of the comprehensive plan, four areas were finally determined as the best locations for constructing residential centers in Bojnord.
A part of the identified areas largely overlaps with the recommended locations in the comprehensive plan (i.e., the city center and pathways leading to Mashhad and Golestan jungle). Some other potential areas for constructing residential centers include the suitable areas in Baba Aman and Besh Qardash tourist areas.
Discussion and The main goal of this article is to present and codify an academic and comprehensive framework in the programming and locating system of residential areas in order to attract visitors and increase their staying time in Bojnord. The results of the study indicate that this goal may be reached through optimal locating of residential centers, especially their easy accessibility to travelers, their proximity to shopping centers and natural and historical tourist attractions, and the availability of necessary services and facilities for visitors. The results of this study significantly overlap with the findings of other studies in the field. A review of the experiences of other countries in this case shows that factors such as having access to roads and metro lines, proximity to historical sites and other tourist attractions, and availability of facilities and services near the residential centers are so effective in motivating and attracting visitors to stay in hotels. The results of the studies conducted in Iran also show that accessibility, facilities and services, historical context, antiquities, and the quality of services significantly affect the visitors’ decision-making in terms of staying in hotels and other residential centers. Based on the results of the current study and other research in the same area, a number of recommendations are presented as follows:- Given a varied range of visitors passing and visiting Bojnord during the year and as the results of this study indicated economic factors have an important role in the visitors’ stay, it is suggested that a variety of residencies suitable for different social classes be constructed so that different groups of visitors with different levels of income are attracted to the hotels and motels.
- The points of criteria, sub-criteria, and also the attitude of visitors revealed the fact that accessibility is very important in the tendency of visitors to stay in the residential centers of Bojnord. Therefore, as the data analysis in the GIS software indicated, the hotels and motels should be positioned in the passing way of the visitors.
- Given a large number of visitors have announced that if the facilities are provided, they will stay in Bojnord for one night while most of them tend to use the shopping centers and restaurants around the residential areas, it is suggested that restaurants and shopping centers be built around residential centers so that visitors have the opportunity to use such centers.
- Nowadays, media and advertisement have an important role in boosting social, economic, and even environmental activities. In fact, as the visitors believe, the lack of advertisements is one of the barriers to developing tourism in Bojnord and its surroundings; therefore, it is recommended that the responsible custodians, especially the Cultural Heritage and Tourism Organization as well as NGOs inform the public and introduce tourist attractions via mass media.

Ascent rainfall mechanism is “one of the most important factors in leading to various rainfall behaviors in different regions, such as various atmospheric precipitation seen in different time scales” (Masoompour, Miri, Zolfaghari, & Yarahmadi, 2013, p. 299). In fact, some of them can be called atmospheric phenomena due to their special nature. One of these atmospheric phenomena is thunderstorm. Not only this storm and its accompanying phenomena like lightening, tornado, hail, strong winds, and heavy precipitation (see Changnon, 1925, 2001), but also atmospheric hazard phenomena in aviation, such asturbulence, frost, and wind shear (Tajbakhsh et al., 2009) cause remarkable damage to human and natural environments. Therefore, recognizing the features of these phenomena has been attracting the attention of researchers.
Theoretical Framework: As a part of weather, thunderstorms are considered as “key elements of the cycle of water and electricity in atmosphere” (Jalali, Rasoli, & Sari Saraf, 2006, p. 20). Generally, researchers believe that extreme instability of air is the result of the convection in lower levels of atmosphere and the assistance of high levels with appropriate humidity. In fact, the necessary conditions to make convection are the main reasons for thunderstorms. There are three required conditions for the occurrence of convection, including static instability, humidity of lower levels of atmosphere, and lifting mechanism near the surface. In fact, the combination of instability, humidity, and convergence in lower levels of atmosphere play an important role in probable thunderstorms.
This study aims at recognizing the thunderstorms of Iran using instability indices. Using the archive of National Meteorology Organization, hourly data and atmospheric phenomena of 14 synoptic stations with radiosonde were gathered. They are 19-year data used to find statistic features. The previously mentioned collected data were processed in time scales of year, season, and month. High atmosphere data (radiosonde data), available in the website of Wyoming University, were applied to investigate thermodynamic features of thunderstorms. Thermodynamic conditions were examined by CAPE, LI, TT, SI, and KI and skew-T chart drawing in the environment of RAOB environment.
The frequency of thunderstorm occurrence in Iran revealed that 1107 occurrences of thunderstorm were recorded with different codes during the studied period. Of the selected stations, Kermanshah and Booshehr stations with 160 occurrences and Yazd station with 17 occurrences have the maximum and minimum occurrences, respectively.. Comparing the occurrences of this phenomenon during 2 decades (1991-1999 & 2000-2009), it became clear that 601 occurrences were recorded in the selected stations during the first decade, whereas these occurrences decreased to 506 cases during the second decade. Seasonal scale showed that northern half of the country (Tehran, Kermanshah, Mashhad, Tabriz, & Isfahan) has the most occurrences during spring while southwest stations (Ahvaz & Booshehr) have them during fall. Furthermore, southeast and south stations (Birjand, Zabol, & Bandar-e-Abbas) recorded these occurrences mostly during winter. Precipitation status of these thunderstorms confirmed that group precipitation of (0-5 mm) has maximum frequency while the group precipitation of (5-10 mm) has minimum frequency among the selected stations. Instability scale showed that such thunderstorms with this extensive CAPE (more than 2500) have not been recorded. Moreover, the values of convergence indices TT and KI mark the possibility of convergence occurrence for a majority of the stations. Instability indices of LI and SI also suggest the limited instability of the thunderstorms.
Conclusion and Suggestions : According to the findings of statistic processes in yearly, monthly, and hourly scales, it is safe to say that the occurrence of this phenomenon does not follow specific rule throughout the country and has various temporal and spatial changes. Seasonal scale showed maximum occurrence during spring (39%) and minimum occurrence during summer (7%). Like seasonal scale, monthly scale similarly suggest the maximum occurrence for April and May and the minimum occurrence for August.
Hourly scale shows the maximum occurrence both at noon and after the maximum sun radiation. However, the minimum occurrence is in the morning at 6:00 which reveals the least amount of energy for the earth surface. Frequency of thunderstorms during 2 decades (1991- 1999 & 2000- 2009) confirmed that except Tehran, the storms of second decade have decreasing process as compared with the storms in the first decade. The calculation of convection potential making the thunderstorms for the samples shows that the values of convective indices (i.e. SI, LI) and instability indices (i.e. SI, LI, CAPE) are moderate or little simultaneous with the occurrence of this phenomenon.