نشریه جغرافیا و توسعه ناحیه ای
سال شانزدهم شماره 1 (پیاپی 30، بهار و تابستان 1397)

Democracy is known as the lawful management of a political society which is executed through the mechanism of transferring the will of population to governance for the administration of countries. Elections are, indeed, considered as the most significant manifestation of democracy. In a democratic society, the right to vote followed by the right to choose or dismiss governments is the most basic civil right. However, it should be noted that the outcome of elections rarely expresses the pure, logical outlook of voters as geography plays a role of utmost importance in this regard. In fact, the outcome of various elections is influenced by spatial and geographical variables at individual and social levels; additionally, there are factors and actors at local, regional, national, and even international levels that affect the outcome of elections. In truth, local factors affect people’s decision-making in elections while the geographical structure of voting systems indicate the outcomes. Geography of election is one of the branches of political geography which focuses on geographical regions as platforms for electing representative at local, regional, and national levels. In fact, geography of election focuses on various geographical aspects of elections, referendums and their organization and results in particular, while considering cultural, economic, and other conditions as influential at various local, regional, and national levels. In terms of the spatial dimension, vote collection patterns are diverse; in geography of election, the citizens’ political behavior patterns derived from diversities in outlooks and demands toward dominant economic, cultural and legal structures can be drawn as a map and examined. In terms of nature and method, the present study is considered as a descriptive-analytical research. Data collection was carried out using library and document studies. The main problem of the study revolves around the spatial distribution of the candidates’ votes during the tenth Iranian presidential election in Mashhad. Furthermore, this study seeks to investigate if there is a significant relationship between the number of votes in different regions of Mashhad to candidates and the social-physical features and indices of such regions. The ArcGIS software and Interpolation – IDW tool were used for the examination and spatial analysis of the votes and demonstrating their maps at the analysis level of Mashhad municipal regions. The PASW software was also used for calculations and statistical tests. In the process of elections, particularly the Iranian presidential election, there are a number of various factors and variables affecting the final decision of the voters for selecting a candidate among numerous volunteers. In other words, voting patterns for candidate in elections are a function of components such as the candidates’ characteristics and individual features, as well as political, economic, and sociocultural macro variables and finally, the characteristics and personal features of voters. In this framework, variables including age, gender, education, religion and nationality, financial status, sense of belonging, etc., among the voters along with the candidates’ characteristics and personal features such as gender, education, appearance, power of speech, charisma and social base, party affiliation, executive and administrative backgrounds, etc., play an effective role in the number of votes casted to candidates. Ultimately, more general economic, social and political variables such as the governments and other actors’ policies and actions, dominant media discourse, social networks, experts, religious leaders, ethnic and religious figures and authorities, and others are also influential in this area. One of the most important, effective variables on citizens’ political behavior involves their personal characteristics which highly rely on their economic, social, and cultural bases. In this study, the impacts of variables such as economic, welfare, educational and general developments on the citizens’ voting patterns during the tenth Iranian presidential election were analyzed and examined across Mashhad’s 12 districts. The results of the study show that the spatial distribution of candidates’ votes across various regions of Mashhad is a function of economic, social and cultural features and indices in different regions. In detail, the citizens’ election-related behaviors in various regions fit the economic, social, and cultural development indices and levels of those regions; moreover, the common needs, interests, and characteristics of citizens across various regions have caused a difference between voting patterns in the city’s districts. In fact, given an increase in development levels for different variables, the percentage in the number of votes to Mr. Ahmadinejad are reduced whereas such a trend for other three candidates have been inverse, particularly for Mr. Mousavi and Mr. Karoubi.

Today, it is accepted that the occurrence of any change in the climatic system is important in water and soil resources management. Climate fluctuations have had irreparable effects on water and soil resources of Khorasan Razavi area, especially in Mashhad. Hence, the attitude towards the future is considered as one of the essential requirements for metropolitan and regional management. In order to provide an outlook from future changes of extreme events, especially precipitation, the output of models of atmosphere general circulation (HadCM3, CNCM3, NCCCSM) are used based on A1B, and A2 scenarios under the LARS-WG model for the two upcoming periods of 2011-2030 and 2046-2065. The studied rainfall indices in this research include PRCPTOT, R10mm, R20mm, R95p, R99p, RX1day, RX5day, and SDII. The prediction of changes in the extreme events caused by global warming and climate change is very important in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on different sectors, such as water, agriculture, and management of urban water collection systems. Since the city of Mashhad has a density of large urban population and is known as a semi-industrial region in which the effects of climate parameters on different parts of the urban and industrial community are important, economic development and sustainable living conditions in the future years depend on the ability to manage the risks associated with extreme events. In this study, the magnitude of extreme values change in the predicted rainfall of Mashhad station was investigated for the two periods of 2011-2030 and 2046-2065 using simulated data through three general circulation models (HadCM3, CNCM3, NCCCSM) under the two scenarios of A2 and A1B, and was downscaled in the station scale by LARS-WG Model (Baseline Statistical Period 2014-2016). It was obtained from the reduction of the uncertainty of the average of calculated indices for the three models. Finally, the percentage rate and the amount of index change were calculated. In this research, data quality control was performed using a software package called RClimDex. Also, the homogeneity of the data used was done by using RHtests_dlyPrcp software package under R programming language. To investigate the ability of HadCM3, NCCCSM, and CNCM3 models in the simulation of weather data, especially rainfall, correlation coefficient was used between the monthly rainfall data observed and simulation data of the three models during the base period of 1966-2014. The results showed that there was a relationship between the two series of data with 99% confidence. Despite the low amount of correlation coefficient between the observed and simulated data, the significance test of this coefficient showed that there is a relationship between the two series of data with 99 certainty. The mean values, variance and standard deviation of climate variables can be compared using T and F tests in surveying the ability of LARS-WG model in simulation of climatic data. The climatic parameters of precipitation were firstly calculated using 53 years of monitored data in Mashhad station (2014-2016) using the semi-experimental distribution in the LARS-WG model. Then, the model was performed to generate 80 years of data based on the obtained parameters based on the data series observed at the station. This operation was performed several times by changing the random number to obtain acceptable statistical results. The results of t-test for this station showed that there was no significant difference in the significance level of 0.05 between the mean of simulated rainfall and its actual value, and, correlation coefficients, bias, and mean of absolute error were also calculated for this station in the monthly series of observed and simulated data. Consequently, a comparison was made between the mean values, the standard deviation, and the maximum of monthly rainfall of the two observational and simulated series. This study aims to present an outlook of the events and investigate the effect of changes in greenhouse gas rates based on A1B and A2 scenarios on the mentioned indices in terms of percent and the amount of their change relative to the basic period. The results showed an average of five-day precipitation and rainfall intensity during the 2011-2030 period will probably increase under the A2 scenario. Also, a more share of the total annual precipitation will belong to the occurrence of torrential and floody rains, i.e., precipitations over the percentile of 95 and 99 basic period. According to the results, the increase of these indices means an increase in the frequency of flood occurrence and its severity, especially during the upcoming period of 2011-2030. However, the probability of decreasing precipitation intensity and indices of maximum five-day rainfall are predicted during the period from 2046 to 2065. Due to the importance of the subject, it is recommended that the authorities pave the way for further studies such as the use of other methods of downscaling under new scenarios in this field, since such results are necessary in long-term planning in the urban services sector.

Since the main theme of any geographical analysis is the emphasis on space and its environmental concepts, any change in the relationship between humans and the urban environment can be considered as the final product of the human desire to change their settlement areas to overcome the environmental and spatial nature of the city. In this context, spatial change in the urban environment can be considered as a socio-economic, environmental, political and spatial policy function that in different periods of time, according to its various conditions, have had different impacts on the urban space and it will provide the concepts of space and urban environment with fundamental changes. On this basis, paying attention to the urban environment challenges and trying to solve them are of essential importance. The Natural Step has pioneered a "Back casting from Principles" approach which means to advance society towards greater sustainability (Whole-systems thinking and back casting from sustainability principles form the basis for numerous applications and tools to plan and redesign organizational strategy, organizational processes, product/service innovation, and business models). Therefore, the most important research aims will be as follows:Identification of the most important variables affecting the urban environment in Saqqez city through strategic studies.
Developing the most important environmental scenarios in Saqqez City to achieve sustainability.
Understanding the most important environmental key forces of Saqqez city. The results showed that the obtained fill rate is equal to 95.79% with two data iteration which represents the high level of variables influencing each other. Also, having relied on the findings, integrated urban environmental management index (ME4) with 188 scores had the most direct impact on other variables and the development and promotion of urban recycling regulations index with 5,585,944 rows calculated values had the most indirect impact on other variables. Finally, the research scenarios were presented in the frame of three main scenarios and 21 predicted situations about Mashhad metropolis environmental challenges using TNS approach.

Welfare is one of the important socioeconomic subjects presented in texts related to economy. Welfare provision is one of the most important purposes in any economic system; offering proper living conditions for the entire strata of societies is considered as the major duty of governments. To achieve such a goal, governments employ different tools; in this regard, granting subsidies is an important way of income transfer, supporting low-income strata, fair distribution of income, and a means for improving the efficiency of poverty mitigation programs and other plans for providing social support to vulnerable strata. Such a strategy could only achieve said purposes if it is regulated and governments are obligated to execute it. Despite how granting cash subsidies was predicted to increase the benefits and welfare of low-income strata, particularly in rural communities, it appears to be unexpectedly worsening the welfare of such strata due to inflation growth and a rise in the price of essential goods and food, which constitute a major share of expenses of low-income households. By drawing a link between cash subsidies and welfare indices, it has been attempted in the present study to evaluate and assess the degree of effectiveness of cash subsidies on the welfare of rural families and recommend a set of suitable strategies for future policy-making. The relation between social welfare level and how resources are allocated to various sections of a society is determined by the social welfare function. The social welfare function depends on the desirability achieved by each and every individual in the society; yet individuals are unaware of the extent of their own desirability as well as others’, recognizing solely the effective factors on their own welfare. Social welfare could be analyzed through different dimensions and could be calculated using various methods. In this regard, using methods such as social welfare functions, supply and demand functions, consumer and producer’s surplus calculation, and employing socioeconomic welfare indices and criteria are methods used in various studies to calculate welfare. Given the structure of data (unbalanced panel data) in this study as well as the presence of a system involving three equations with simultaneous correlation between their components compromising the test, an econometric model for seemingly irrelevant systems with unbalanced panel was used. Indices including daily calorie and protein intake was used to measure family welfare. Furthermore, to calculate the annual income of rural families, profits gained from selling produced goods during a year are added to none-agricultural incomes such as rent and accumulated deposit interests, together with cash subsidies received. The required information for the study were collected from rural families’ expense and income detailed plans laid out by the Statistical Center of Iran during 2010-12 in Khorasan Razavi province. The results of the study showed that a set of factors such as the level of literacy, type of activities, costs of food, and areas under cultivation involved positive impact on welfare indices; nonetheless, factors such as subsidies and the number of household members were of negative effects on food security indices and a positive effect on the whole income index. Since the costs of food and general income are components affecting welfare indices including calorie and protein intake, the results showed that 1% increase in the costs of food would increase 0.15 and 0.34% of calorie and protein intake, respectively; moreover, 1% rise in the general income has increased 0.09 and 0.11% of households’ calorie and protein intake, respectively. Despite cash subsidies increasing the general income of rural households, yet not only this variable has had no positive impact on food security indices, i.e. calorie and protein intake, but also has led to their decline. In this regard, 1% increase in received cash subsidies would reduce 0.02 and 0.07% calorie and protein intake, respectively. Although cash subsidies have insignificantly increased the general income of households, it has practically reduced the purchasing power and real incomes of families due to rise in market liquidity and inflation. Considering the subject of food security as one of the most important issues related to welfare provision in any society nowadays and given the emphasis of the fourth economic, social, and cultural development plan regulation of Iran on providing 29g of protein to every individual daily, its recommended that the Iranian government revise granting cash subsidies; in this regard, the government could consider a subsidies system for goods and essential food items for families so as to achieve subsidy targeting as well as increasing the welfare of rural families.

In many countries nowadays, the use of diverse, various human-environmental abilities against single dimensional capabilities have been perceived as a necessity in order to offer comprehensive, sustainable development. One of the means to achieve this purpose is to study and implement tourism development programs at local, national, and international levels. The tourism industry entails significant potentials in historical, cultural, and environmental contexts, a part of which is tourism or exploiting geological and geomorphological potentials. The diversity and vastness of geological zones and geomorphological phenomena across Iran are fairly abundant; subsequently, in addition to the identification of such phenomena, conducting studies and drawing precise, systematic plans are steps toward regional and national development. The major purpose of this study is to evaluate the tourism potential of Uramanat region with focus on geomorphological forms and processes in line with regional development, the necessity of which during the current period is to conserve this inheritance followed by a proper operation in order to create jobs, increase incomes, and prevent population migration, especially in rural regions. The tourism industry in Iran is an aspect that essentially requires planning and attention due to the country’s high natural, cultural, historical, and climate potentials which, as one of its significant and valuable strengths, could be exploited in line with sustainable development. This industry entails different forms and types which may vary given environmental and regional conditions. Today, paying attention to geomorphological and geological potentials as a branch of tourism (geotourism) have found a special place within the research conducted on this industry. The exploitation of ever-evolving and changing geomorphologic phenomena, forms, and processes that have brought about original, beautiful views for everyone to visit has witnessed a considerable growth during the past few decades; given the country’s vastness and high diversity in natural and human contexts, Iran is one of the most desirable, apt spots in the world.
The word “geomorphosite” was first introduced in 2001 by an Italian, M. Paniza, followed by extensive studies in the area by Dawling and Newsome (2009), Thomas Hows(2012), Reynard, Pralong(2001), Periera(2002) and etc. On the other hand, the word “geomorphotourism” was first presented in 2004 by an Iranian geomorphologist, Mohammad JafarZomorrodian at a symposium in London, which was then expanded through studies by Amri Kazemi(2000), Nekouei Sadri(2005), Farsani(2007), Maghsoudi(2010), Yamani(2012), and others.
Located on the west of Iran, the Uramanat region includes sections of counties including Paveh, Javanroud, Ravansar, Kamiyaran, Marivan, and Sarvabad. Given the high capacities and special potentials of this region such as the continuity of mountains and valleys, limestone caves, springs and mirages, rivers, lakes, etc. it has been selected for this study. The present inquiry is an applied-developmental study conducted with the purpose of evaluating the tourism potential with respect to geomorphological contexts in line with the regional development of Uramanat region. The methods, tools, and techniques used to examine, analyze and collect the required data included the descriptive-analytical method as well as using Pralong and Periera’s models along with library studies and field observations. In the first step, library and document studies were investigated to collect descriptive data and information. Then, the collected data were analyzed using Pralong and Periera’s models which are specialized models regarding the subject of the study. The results of these models were ultimately aligned using field observations and examinations.
The two main criteria assessed and evaluated in Pralong’s method included tourism efficiency value and geomorphotouristic criterion; the former involved two grades including the efficiency level and efficiency quality level of geomorphosites and the latter involved four grades including the appearance, scientific, historical-cultural and socioeconomic grades of geomorphosites. Ultimately, their results are taken into account in average to indicate whether the intended potential exists or vice versa. Studies conducted on the descriptive section and field examination of the region showed a high potential in the environmental dimension, particularly regarding geomorphological phenomenon. These findings were assessed using the grades mentioned in Pralong and Pereira’s models including scientific, cultural, economic, social, efficiency, management, appearance and aesthetic grades of a region. Employing these models shows that the Uramanat region is at a high rank in terms of aesthetics (Total average - 0.6), particularly in the natural and geomorphological dimensions. In terms of scientific (Total average - 0.5) and cultural (Total average - 0.7) dimensions, this region is above average. Nonetheless, it is at an undesirable level regarding the economic dimension (Total average - 0.5).
The tourism value of Uramanat in Pralong’s model which is obtained through the aesthetic, scientific, cultural, historical and economic indices, was discovered to involve an above-average score, i.e. 55%. Furthermore, in the average efficiency value, the index has been above average with 75%.
The geomorphologic grade of Uramanat region, the potential of which is assessed and evaluated from a score of 10, achieved an average of more than 8 points, a scientific grade of 4.5 out of 5.5, a complementary average grade of 3.6 out of 4.5, usage grade of almost 5 out of 6, protection grade of almost 2.5 out of 3, and finally, a management grade of above 7 out of 10. The results obtained from analyzing both Pralong and Periera’s models demonstrate that this region is of high potentials in the majority of scientific, aesthetic, complementary, geomorphologic, etc. criterion and indices. However, in terms of management and protection aspects, the region involves low strengths and capacities due its limitations, absence of investments, and economic shortcomings. In other dimensions however, not only the region entails rich cultural, social, and historical indices, it also complements the natural, untouched environment of Uramanat.
As a result, given the high potential of this region (total average – 15.32) it is necessary to first indicate its apt spots followed by drawing a scientific, expert plan so as to initiate tourist attraction, increase occupation levels, prosper income cycles and ultimately, grow the economic level of the region. Considering the fact that the region has fairly remained original and natural, it is recommended to pay attention to the area in terms of protective and economic indices and to take necessary actions for education and advertisement by the local people and related authorities.

Rainfall is the most significant phenomenon or feature of the environment. The factors causing rainfall have been the subject of numerous studies. Both the rainy or very dry years have considerable impact on the quality of humans’ living environments. Rainfall occurs when there is enough moisture as an effective factor. Both of these conditions are provided through circulation patterns of the atmosphere. The purpose of the present study is to identify the circulation patterns and factors causing rain showers in the mountainous regions of Iran (i.e. Southern Alborz and Eastern Zagros mountain range); moreover, it is attempted to explain how they are formed, during which period of the year they could evolve more significantly, and at what times they occur in the region, along with their similarities and differences. Given the breadth and considerable socioeconomic significance of the region being studied (i.e., Southern Alborz and Eastern Zagros mountain range) it is necessary to identify the circulation patterns causing such damaging rain showers. To this end, the occurrence of this phenomenon could be predicted by observing the commencement of the sequences of patterns leading to torrential rain showers at least one or two days beforehand. In this case, there would be enough time to make necessary preparations. In this study, the circulatory synoptic approach to environment was used; in this regard, first the statistics and data on the climate codes of past and present in stations including codes 80 to 99 related to showers or heavy rainfalls accompanied by lightning were extracted from 50 synoptic stations in the region of the study during a 30-year period (1985-2014). Next, the days of occurrence (code 80-99) were identified followed by the days with rain showers among the entire statistical data which had been observed in at least 50% of the stations of the region; ultimately, 80 days of rain showers were identified. Then, clustering approach was used on data in order to identify circulation patterns causing such showers based on Euclidean distances and integrate it with Ward’s method in SPSS. It was carried out according to the elevation data at 700 hectopascal level of these days, which is the best level for demonstrating how rain showers are formed. Furthermore, data on the vertical speed (omega) and components of orbital, meridional and vorticity winds obtained from clustering patterns at 10-80 E and 10-70 N with a spatial resolution of 2.5 2.5 degrees were provided. In the end, the related maps were drawn and analyzed in Surfer and GrADS softwares. According to the findings obtained from principal components analysis, seven primary components constituting 80% of total data diffraction were selected so as to indicate climate circulation patterns. Given 80 days representing the entire days being studied (19333 days) in 50 synoptic stations during a 30-year period (1985-2014), 7 clusters (circulation patterns) causing rain showers were identified through the aforementioned method as well as conducting cluster analysis with Euclidean distances based on data at the level of 700 hectopascal using Ward’s integration method. Drawing conclusions on the analysis of seven clusters at the region of the study showed the presence of drought in the western part of the region as well as blocking and cut-off low at the level of 700 hectopascals, low-pressure systems in Saudi Arabia and Eastern Iran and a high-pressure system at the northern part of the region, and dominant synoptic phenomena during days of rain showers at the region. Examining the patterns of climate’s upper levels in the region studied shows that the highest volume of rainfall occurs when systems are formed as blocking, while the high-altitude subtropical center moves toward more southern latitudes. Given the analysis of drawn synoptic patterns, according to the data of level 700 hectopascals, in general, it must be pointed out that among the obtained patterns from clustering the aforementioned level data, the highest number of days with rain shower occurrences in the region follows the cut-off low pattern of the Black Sea as well as the deep drought of North-Western Iran; these patterns have been formed mainly during Spring (March, April, and May). The highest amount of rainfall in this pattern has occurred in the Western and North Western of the region. The examination of this pattern demonstrated the presence of a deep and strong closed low-altitude center on the Black Sea. While this low altitude contour gradient center in the region moves, it paves the way for the formation and expansion of baroclinic waves in the eastern regions of the trough. As the low altitude center (cut-off low) is closed, the movement of Western systems over the Iranian mountainous region is slowed down and rainfall continues. On the other hand, the western and north-eastern parts of the region under investigation are influenced by the 1025 hectopascal high pressure of Western Europe in this pattern while the eastern parts of the region are affected by the low-pressure center. The presence of a strong ridge in the Northern Mediterranean Sea as well as a deep scot-off low in the Eastern Black Sea have strengthened baroclinic waves at the lower level of the atmosphere; consequently, considering the proper convergence in low levels, suitable conditions for ascension and positive vorticity, divergence at upper levels of the atmosphere, and desirable rain showers (more than 40 mm) have been observed, particularly, in the north-eastern parts of the region. In this pattern, humidity transfer has occurred in the north-eastern and eastern parts of the region over the Caspian Sea, through high-pressure tabs. In addition, the role of the cyclonic movement of south-eastern systems in transferring and enhancing the humidity of the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf cannot be overlooked. According to the 7 synoptic patterns formed in this clustering, the southern and south-western low-pressure systems are of substantial importance in offering convergence among low levels and rain showers. Rainfalls occur in high volumes when systems appear as cut-off low or deep and strong low-altitude centers in the upper layers of the atmosphere. Furthermore, the presence of a strong ridge in Western Europe and the subsidence of cold weather from high latitudes have enforced pass pression center at low levels while its tabs have led to the northern streams and the injection of Caspian humidity to the western parts of the region under investigation.

Today, the growth of urbanization and industrial development in various aspects of human life has led to an increase in its need for recreation and tourism. Tourism is one of the human activities that is growing as new functions of the spaces with different economic, social and environmental dimensions, but these dimensions do not only apparent positively and desirably, and along with benefits, they have negative outcomes and effects. The most important positive effects of tourism on host societies include the creation of jobs, the rehabilitation of undeveloped or non-industrial areas, the rejuvenation of art and local techniques, traditional and cultural activities, improvement of the social and cultural life of the local community, the modernization of local architecture and traditions as well as increased attention to the protection of extremely beautiful areas with aesthetic and cultural values. Developing tourism and equipping infrastructure through various projects to meet the needs and demands of tourists is one of the main goals of managers and planners. But it should be noted that the development of tourism and related activities can lead to many environmental impacts, especially in rural areas, which are destinations for urban tourists. The determination of environmental impacts is one of the main issues and concerns in the process of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) of projects. Assessing the effects of tourism can also predict the length of time for tourism activities in the region. In fact, in order to achieve sustainable tourism, these assessments must first be initiated and managed to reduce the adverse effects and promote the benefits for local stakeholders.
The presence of diverse attractions in some of the country's villages has led to their selection as tourist destination villages and welcoming destinations.
In this regard, providing touristic villages with the services and infrastructures for tourists’ welfare, and attracting more tourists are in priority for governments and tourism proctor institutions such as Cultural Heritage Handicrafts and Tourism Organization of Iran. In some cases, private tourism investments have also been directed to these villages. Therefore, all of these executive and infrastructure activities such as tourism projects can have diverse effects on different aspects, including environmental impacts on rural destinations.
Accordingly, the assessment of environmental impacts of rural tourism activities in line with having the goal of sustainable rural tourism development can help planners and managers to prevent the negative effects of tourism development in rural environments. The study area includes a set of target villages in Golestan Province covering 37 villages. About 14 villages, in which the infrastructure and development of tourism services such as medical and sanitary facilities, prayer, sanitation, landscaping, available roads and asphalt, housing construction, camping and the like are emphasized, were selected as the basis of study and evaluation. They are slao selected by the Cultural Heritage Handicrafts and Tourism Organization of Golestan Province as sample rural areas active in tourism.
The reason is that after this selection by related governmental inistitiutions, a significant amount of public and private investmenting projects flow to these villages for providing the services and infrustructures that will result in the increase of positive and negative effects that need to be studied. The present study uses an analytical-explanatory methodology using library-documentary and field study.
In order to collect the field data, after identifying the variables of the research, data were collected through a questionnaire distributed in the studied area.
Samples are chosen in 2 levels: 42 local elites (local managers and Dehyars) for counting the ICOLD matrix, and 366 households that had been selected by Cochran formula (with 5 percent error rate) from local community for environmental impact assessment, and for ranking the rural by COPRAS technique. Based on the results obtained from the evaluation of the effects and calculating the sum of algebras of values in different dimensions, the highest positive effects of tourism activities in the subsections were in the socio-economic aspect with a score of 115 and the lowest score in the physical-chemical aspect is equal to 3. In other words, the activities expressed in the surrounding villages have positive social and economic effects, and the highest negative effects in physical and chemical dimensions with a score of 189 and the least negative effects in the cultural-infrastructural dimension with a score of 45 are observed, which indicates high negative environmental impacts of tourism activities in the studied villages. The comparison of negative and positive environmental impact total score (+75, -201) shows this fact.
Also, the comparison of the sum of algebraic values indicates that in physical- chemical (-186) and biologic (-72) dimensions, sum of scores are negative, and in social-economical (66) and cultural-infrastructure dimensions, sum of scores are positive or inactive. The considerable point in results is the inactive algebraic sum of negative and positive values in cultural dimensions of tourism development in case study area. Finally, algebraic sum of scores for total environmental dimensions is 192. Thus, in the case study rural area, negative impacts of tourism in environment are so high. In next step, results of COPRAS ranking techniques implementation show that the impacts of tourism activities on determined subdivisions and rural systems’ non-sustainability is different from each other. Thus, most environmental unsustainability had been observed in Ziarat village with 0.145 score. High numbers of tourists and visitors and geographical- spatial position of case study regions could be the reason of this condition. Also, Afratakhteh village with 0.125 score was ranked second regarding the amount of environmental impact. The least amount of environmental impact had been observed in eastern Gaz village with a score of 0.035. The obtained results of this study for assessing the environmental impact of tourism activities in target villages of Golestan province with emphasis on the results of former studied (e.g., Gharakhlou, RamezanZadeh Lsboi, & Glin Sharifi, 2009; Mamaghani Nasab, 2013; Amirhajilo, Tavalaee, Zanganeh, & Zanganeh, 2013; Eftekhari and Mahdavi., 2005), enumerate that negative effects and faults of tourism development projects and activities are more than its benefits. Hence, the results show that the highest negative impacts of tourism development activities was in physical-chemical dimension with a score of -186, and in the biologic dimension with a score of -72. Therefore, it could be said that despite positive effects in social-economical dimension of rural areas, the tourism development project has more negative and destroying effects on rural landscape that need to be controlled. Based on COPRAS ranking techniques, Ziarat and Afratakhteh rural points experienced the most amount of environmental impacts. Especially, in rural points that lay along roads and communication ways, these effects are intensified. Therefore, determining the environmental impact of tourism development, as well as the implementing projects with fewer environmental impact, is the main suggestions of the present study.

Given the expanding tourism market and economic crisis affecting conventional industries, tourism has increasingly been considered as a remedy for urban economy. There are numerous key factors in sustainable development of tourism which should be taken into account. In addition to factors such as the dynamic growth of management, climate change, poverty reduction and protection support for tourists and residents, security is of substantial significance. The success or failure of a tourism destination depends, more than any other economic activity, on its ability to offer a safe and insured environment for the visitors. Positive and satisfactory experience of visitors is a proper index for tourists’ willingness to visit the tourism destination a second time in the future. Security is synonymous with being safe, safety, peace and comfort whereas it is the complete opposite of fears, phobias and panics. As a result, security or sense of security is one of the important needs of anyone in their social life so as to achieve peace, assurance and quality of life. Maslow’s hierarchy of needs is one of the theories explaining security; Maslow (1960) classifies humans’ needs into five categories including physiological, safety, love/belonging, esteem, and self-actualization. In this hierarchy, he has placed safety immediately after the basic physiological needs and believes that unless the individuals’ needs at the lower levels are met, it would be less possible to tend to those needs at higher levels. By asserting social relationships in social systems, the school of functionalism considers the presence of safety in light of structural coordination, integrity and social solidarity. The tourism sustainable development approach is a shift from conventional approaches of neoclassic economy in the area of tourism development to a general systemic approach. The systemic approach regards tourism destination management as a purposeful system consisting of various, related elements in which a set of functions and activities work together for the system’s purpose. As one of the functions of tourism system, successful safety and security provides a seamless systemic approach. The success and sustainable growth of tourism depends on the proper, coordinated performance of numerous interconnected factors and elements; “security of tourists and tourism destination” is one of these important factors. In terms of purpose and method, the present inquiry is an applied study conducted using the descriptive approach, survey and correlations. The population of the study included all tourists who had traveled to Sari in 2016. Given the fluctuations in the number of tourists at different time periods, the individual estimation method was used to estimate the sample population (100 individuals were selected in each urban region) through the available sampling method. For data collection, library and field studies were employed. The independent variable of sense of security was assessed through 23 items in three dimensions including social and mental, economic and financial, and physical and environmental; the independent variable of tourism development was assessed using 4 items. As for the analysis of data, descriptive statistics (mean, standard deviation), inferential statistics (K-means cluster analysis model, Pearson correlation coefficient, multi-variable linear regression and grey TOPSIS technique using SPSS and Arc GIS softwares) were used. 1. In this study, four criteria including recommending the trip to family and friends, positive mental image of the city, increased time of residents and willingness for a second visit in the future were identified based on theoretical studies in order to prioritize the three districts of Sari city in terms of tourism development index, followed by an analysis using the grey TOPSIS technique. The results showed that district 1 is at the highest rank in terms of tourism development while district 3 and 2 are respectively at the lowest and middle levels.
2. To indicate the sense of security level in three districts of Sari, K-means cluster analysis was used. According to this model, it was shown that in general, sense of security in districts 1 and 2 is at the highest level whereas it is at the lowest across district 3. The results of regression analysis shows that the sense of social-mental and economic-financial security have been effective at a significance level of 0.01.
3. To obtain the relation between the threefold sense of security and tourism development across the districts of Sari, Pearson correlation coefficient was used. The results of regression analysis shows that the sense of social-mental and economic-financial security have been effective at a significance level of 0.01. According to the results of study, moving from the north, west, east and city center (districts 2 and 1) towards south (district 3), the physical and environmental texture of the city becomes more heterogeneous and the population increases compared to district 1, while the household dimension increases relative to both districts. On the one hand, the highest number of immigrations to Sari, which has been rising since the 1990s, consists of residents in the rural settlements inside this province (almost 60%), the majority of whom have settled in district 3 and the surrounding areas; this has led to heterogeneity of the physical construction of the city as well as weakening the level of social bonds between the original residents of the city and immigrant which is a threat against urban security. It also confirms Jacobs’ theory who, in explaining urban security, asserts and emphasizes the interaction between physical space and social processes forming the environment. It also confirms the school of functionalism which regards the presence of security in light of structural coordination, integrity and social solidarity. Consequently, the urban sense of security is one of the basic needs of any cities which, unfortunately, has been missing from the chain of management and tourism development plans; the significance of this problem becomes more apparent through more investigations. As a result, the following recommendations are listed in order to enhance the sense of security level across Sari:Timely and immediate investigation of tourists’ complaints by security and law enforcement agencies, using closed-circuit cameras in tourism environments, monitoring the proportionality of prices with the quality of products offered to tourists, coordination between urban and tourism managers in line with organizing abandoned lands scattered across the city, organizing inappropriate applications in the vicinity of tourism attractions, proper lighting for tourism environments, improving the quality of passages toward tourism centers, and developing green areas in the city.

The agriculture sector is one of the most important economic sectors in the country and its role on the economic, political, national and international development is important. One of the main concerns of development planners is always the significant share of agriculture sector in production and employment as well as the creation of sustainable food security. The challenges of conversion and complementary industries are among the issues that reduce the efficiency and effectiveness of production units in Shabestar city and have minimized the optimal utilization. In this regard, identifying the challenges facing this industry can help to facilitate and develop it. Therefore, the major issue of this research is to identify and determine the future challenges of conversion and complementary industries in Shabestar city as well as explaining that how these challenges affect each other. The industrialization of agriculture and development of conversion and complementary industries have a close connection and they can play a role on achievement of sustainable development especially in rural areas by interacting with each other. Based on the viewpoint of industrialization, the expansion of activities and diversification of rural economy can be considered as an important factor in improving the value added to the agriculture sector, reducing waste and imports, and also preventing withdrawal of foreign currency from the country. Also, it can improve and upgrade living standards, increase welfare, provide essential goods for poor rural households and ultimately play an important role in the development of rural areas by creating jobs and increasing the distribution of more balanced incomes. Creating these industries in agriculture sector along with promoting technology in industrialization process will provide more opportunities for other sectors including transportation and some groups of service sectors. The present study is qualitative and in terms of objective is applicable-developmental. In order to comprehensively investigate the issue; the target community to interview has been 43 knowledgeable experts in the related organizations, university professors, entrepreneurs and managers of Shabestar manufacturing units and sample farmers. The selection of samples was done using a targeted approach as well as the snowball method. Deep interviews in the form of focus groups were used to collect data and continued until theoretical saturation. Data analysis was carried out with a regular process and at the same time with continuous comparison of data. In this method, the main technique for data analysis is coding that was performed in three steps:Open coding, 2. Axial coding and 3. Selective coding. Considering the results of discussion of focus groups with the target community and the derivation of extracted concepts, the problems of conversion and complementary industries in Shabestar city are identified and categorized in the form of seven factors of rules and regulations, infrastructure and technology, institution and administration, management and entrepreneurship, economy and finance, training and human resources, and market system. Based on the findings of this study, the factor of market system with 399 frequencies and 595 reference codes has had the highest share and rules and regulations with 166 frequencies and 225 reference codes play the lowest role regarding the challenges of conversion and complementary industries in Shabestar County. In addition, the problems of conversion and complementary industries are considered as a major phenomenon covering sub-phenomena. The sub-phenomena come from the lack of supports, legal vacuum and policy making, weakness in the administrative system, management weaknesses, weaknesses in education and workforce, weaknesses in investment, and poor marketing.
The problems arising from casual conditions lead to national and regional consequences, loss of value and reduction of agricultural activities, threat to related industries and the disappearance of target industries, the loss of capital caused by inactivation of factories, distance between product and the target market, daily increasing of final costs of industries products, lack of access to new technologies, environmental threats, increasing interest in mediation, lower prices of agricultural products, increase of poverty, unemployment and migration are among the consequences which are formed by the occurrences of the main phenomena and sub-phenomena. If the scope of phenomena is broadly and nationally considered, then the issues such as threat to food security, imports increment and withdrawal of foreign currency from the country should be added to the above phenomena. The research findings indicate that conversion and complementary industries are faced with some challenges in the field of rules and regulations, infrastructure and technology, institution and administration, economy and finance, training and human resources, management and entrepreneurship and market system. These challenges bring about reduction of the efficiency and effectiveness of production units and make the optimal utilization difficult. The geographical location of Shabestar, its location in Iran-European communication route, its proximity to Aras Free Zone as well as its neighborhood with west Azarbaijan province indicate the high capacity of this city; however, this regional opportunity has not been used in the field of conversion and complementary industries especially in marketing.
The most important problems of conversion and complementary industries are related to the challenges of market system and marketing. Cash purchase of production inputs, long-term sale of agricultural industry products, instability of price in the market, absence of unions active in the marketing especially in the products of conversion and complementary industries, lack of specific target market of agricultural industries, low awareness about the importance of branding in the products of conversion and complementary industries along with production-oriented thinking instead of market-oriented thinking and customer orientation have caused that conversion and complementary industries in this city face with the challenges of market and marketing. One of the most important requirements for the development of conversion and complementary industries is the attention to the barriers of regional development that should be identified, modified, controlled and if necessary eliminated. Therefore, there is a need for further research and study in the areas of regional, national and international marketing, imports and branding.

Nowadays, investigations and analysis of changes in land use through local and national scales have been taken into consideration more than ever, the major purpose of which is to optimize land use as well as its limited finite resources.
During the past few years, the rapid growth in population along with urbanization have intensified the significance of land use, resulting in extensive changes regarding the usage of lands in the cities. In general, it has been indicated that natural forces as well as human activities are the two major factors in changing land use and ground cover through scales ranging from local to national.
Although the development of cities in western countries have taken a rather slow pace of progress currently, yet, statistics show a rapid, considerable growth in Asia. Similarly, our country have also witnessed such an increasing, accelerated progress, especially during the past 40 years; in most cases, however, the growth has taken place in outskirts of cities and locations with fewer facilities and features.
Among various changes in land use brought about by humans, urban growth and development is of utmost importance concerning the high values of lands; as a result, the position of modelling and predicting the changes in land use in the future have also gained significance for urban management, environment, and other authorities and researchers involved.
In many studies concerning the modelling of changes in land use, multi-temporal satellite images are presented as the most important type of data to be used. Consequently, the examination on how to utilize their various capabilities as to achieve desirable results is of special importance.
Tehran metropolitan area, as the political and economic capital of the country, has been subject to a rapid influx of population along with inconvenient and unbalanced development. The emergence of an entangled, polluted and overcrowded environment in Tehran have revealed the necessity of an optimized management of natural resources as well as proper use of lands in this city, more than before. It is evident that in this regard, urban designers and environment experts would draw a set of strategies in order to accomplish the aforementioned purposes.
The main goal of the present study is to investigate and analyze the effective factors in the development process of Tehran metropolitan area since 1990 until 2010, as to develop and present a model through which urban development can be predicted; such predictions would provide the basis for implementation and execution of urban planning policies. The high urban population growth rate and the lack of basic infrastructure, on the one hand, and the increasing trend of land-use disparate changes, on the other hand, clearly reveal the need for the analysis of these changes. In this regard, urban designers and environmental experts are considering strategies for the optimal management of natural resources as well as the proper use of land valuable in urban areas. The main purpose of this study is the consolidated employment of a mixed model of automatic cells and neural network algorithm based on spatial information system in order to create a model of urban development with regards to Tehran metropolitan area during time intervals of 1990, 2000, 2010, as well as comparing the accuracy of modelling in this algorithm with common models of automatic cells.
A set of parameters including the distance from urban areas, roads, streets and parks along with the slope and altitude of lands, have been considered as the effective parameters on urban development and growth. The results showed that the consolidated employment of automatic cells model and neural network algorithm can offer improvements to the calibration process of rules regarding the transfer of automatic cells.
Satellite images used in this study have been taken in 1990, 2000, and 2010. Furthermore, the required layers of information such as the maps of elevation, slopes, and land use layer of Tehran metropolitan area have been used in a shapefile format in ArcGIS 10 software. The entire processes of satellite images have been carried out in ENVI 7.4 software.
The Thematic Mapper (TM) image in 1990 and the Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images in 2000 and 2010, which would form the input and output of the models in both consecutive periods, have been classified into urban, arid, parks and farmlands, lakes and road regions using Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm. Then, by extracting binary image of developed regions (urban, non-urban), the spatial objects related to such regions are obtained.
In the next step, these objects are transferred to cellular space via an inverse conversion of vector space so that they could be used in the model structure while maintaining their unique identifiers. Moreover, a Cellular Automata (CA) model based on artificial neural network optimization algorithm is implemented in order to obtain the likelihood of development (transformation from non-urban to urban mode) for each cell. The model for calculating such possibility is based on mixed automatic pattern.
It is worth mentioning that the Kappa statistical index and the overall accuracy are used to assess the results and compare them to the ground truth. Furthermore, in order to validate the results, a statistical test based on variance to measure the meaningfulness of the results is utilized. Considering the limitations in common cellular patterns and vectors of automatics, the present study offers a mixed automatic pattern as a combination of cellular computing structure as well as optimal features of vector patterns. The major problem with conventional models of automatic cells entail a sensitivity to scale along with being far from the reality of ground objects. Although object-based vector models have lessened such deficiencies to some extent, yet their implementation and calculations still face a number of complexities and challenges.
In a mixed model, space is defined as a set of arranged cells, yet spatial objects derived from ground truth is also used along with them. In order to avoid employing a trial and error approach in determining the proper weights regarding the model’s components, an artificial neural network optimization method have been used to calculate the possibility of extension based on the distance from developmental factors such as the distance from roads or important central regions of the city. A statistical comparison of the ground truth of Tehran in 2010 via the simulations obtained from mixed model along with common cellular pattern shows the higher accuracy of the proposed model relative to cellular model.
The result of the study showed that the consolidated employment of automatic cell models as well as artificial neural network optimization algorithm can offer improvements to the calibration process of the rules concerning the transfer of automatic cells. A statistical comparison of the ground truth of Tehran in 2010 using simulated images taken from the mixed model and also, the common model of automatic raster cells indicate the higher accuracy of the proposed model, in a way that according to the results of modelling based on two images, the kappa index and overall accuracy for the mixed model have been estimated as 76% and 90.96%, and for the common raster model, they have been 70.47% and 87.85%, respectively. Furthermore, according to modelling based on three images, the kappa index and the overall accuracy for mixed model and also the common raster model have been estimated as 69.18%, 84.88%, 63.37% and 82.98%, respectively. The results of the study are briefly summarized in the following:Investigation of the procedure regarding the spatial-temporal changes of phenomena such as the development of cities, require employing dynamic patterns in time. In this regard, due to their simple, yet dynamic structures as well as having strong spatial features, cellular automata have been used extensively in these types of modellings.
The proposed model of mixed automata simultaneously utilizes the optimal concept and features of the vector pattern along with the simple structure and calculations of cellular pattern. Having a proper accuracy in simulations, the present model involves low sensitivity to scale and does not require complex calculations and implementation, making it an appropriate, applicable pattern in modelling of urban development.
Neural network algorithm can be used as a proper method for optimal indication of the intensity regarding the participation of various factors in regulating structures of cellular automata, rather than employing a deficient, time-consuming method such as trial and error.

Soil temperature, as an important meteorological parameter, is essential for a variety of scientific studies. Soil temperature is one of the major physical parameters of soil. Plant growth and soil tillage processes depend on it. Soil temperature study at different depths is important in meteorology, and especially, in the micro scale, climatology, agriculture and industry, and its changes are also dependent on air temperature. Soil temperature and soil humidity are important factors that influence organic matter decomposition and water cycle and plant growth. Access to soil temperature data at different depths of the soil is important for environmental purposes, agriculture, urban management, and building, and its lack is a major challenge. Researchers have always tried to determine the relationship between soil temperature and important climate parameters in different depths to estimate this important feature using different models. Therefore, soil temperature, its changes and its effects on the ecosystems and human activities cannot be ignored in the studies of climate change. Climate can be defined as the dominant (long-term) atmospheric conditions that are said to be in one place. Climate elements are phenomena describing the weather (e.g., radiation, temperature, precipitation, humidity, pressure and wind) and are measured at the meteorological station. Climatic elements are exacerbated, reduced or moderated by climatic factors. Soil temperature is one of the major physical parameters of soil, and plant growth, and complete soil formation processes depend on its changes. Soil temperature study at different depths is important for meteorology, especially in micro scale, climatology, agriculture and industry. The climatic data used in this study are average temperature, minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, sunshine, wind speed, station pressure and soil temperature in 5, 20, and 100 Cm depth. Data of these parameters for 31 synoptic stations in daily scale were obtained from the Iranian Meteorological Organization during the statistical period 1992-2015. Soil temperature at the stations were recorded at 6:30, 12:30 and 18:30 (local time). The average of daily temperature at different depths of the soil was measured by average of three times. In order to identify the effective parameters on the soil temperature, Pearson correlation and multiple regressions were used. Using the simultaneous regression model, the most suitable multivariate regression model was used to estimate the soil temperature at different depths.
Various methods are used to study trends and climate change from a statistical point of view. Trend procedure methods are divided into two categories: parametric and nonparametric. The method used in this research is non-parametric, i.e., Mann-Kendal method. In Mann-Kendal method, the zero assumption implies randomness and lack of trend in the data series, and acceptance of the research hypothesis (the rejection of the zero assumption) indicates the existence of trends in the data series. Minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean temperature, sunshine hours and relative humidity have a significant relationship with soil temperature at stations. Also, with increasing depth, the correlation of climate parameters with soil temperature decrease. The results of statistical analysis with Pearson correlation coefficient and multiple regressions showed that the average temperature of air is most related to soil temperature changes in all stations. Based on the results of validation of all stations, regression equations have a higher accuracy at depths of 5 and 20 cm. Investigations showed that the determination coefficient in the depths of 5 and 20 cm was more than 0.95. In average, in all stations, the average RMSE was between 2 and 3. As the depth increases, the error rate also increases. The purpose of this study was to investigate the process of soil temperature changes and to provide a model for estimating soil temperature using climatic parameters. Given the very low soil temperature fluctuations that represent climate change and the surface temperature of the soil, which indicates short-range variations, it can be seen that the phenomenon of climate change is occurring and has a significant effect on the temperature of the soil temperature. Many factors affect soil temperature, such as soil profiles, soil texture, snow cover, soil moisture changes, thermal conductivity, specific heat, evaporation, and solar radiation, all of which can lead to changes in soil temperature; therefore, using models that can include all factors is not possible. The studies carried out at the stations showed that multiple linear regressions is a suitable model for predicting soil temperature, and the R2 obtained for the depth of 5-100 cm at the stations is validated by the model. Multivariate regression can be used as an indirect numerical method with high accuracy and reliability to estimate soil temperature.

The increasing intensification of scale, expansion, and complexity of problems in cities as well as becoming aware of the incompetent conventional system and top-down decisions-making have led to a trend toward systems, in which small and large decisions are made through cooperation between urban beneficiaries. Today, the “good urban governance” approach has been introduced as the most influential and sustainable way of management with the lowest cost. Given the significance of this approach, its examination and analysis in the management of various cities is substantially beneficial. Consequently, the purpose is to examine good urban governance in Arak city as a case study. The theoretical framework of the study is based on good urban governance. A prominent feature of democratic governments is good governance which cannot be realized without democracy. Today, indicators such as responsiveness, efficiency, accountability, achieving public satisfaction, quality of life, and gaining information on good governance are emphasized. Good governance results in a growing trust between citizens and governments, and ultimately public satisfaction. The indicators of good urban governance include: effectiveness, participation, transparency, lawfulness, accountability, equity, strategic insight, agreed orientation, reception, responsiveness, access to information, etc. In this study, 6 indicators were confirmed, based on which the present study was conducted. These indicators include participation, effectiveness and efficiency, lawfulness, access to information, equity, and political stability and fight against corruption. The present inquiry is a descriptive-analytical study with an applied purpose. The total population of the study includes the residents of Arak city in its five urban regions who are more than 571068 people. Given the high volume of the population as well as numerous limitations such as time, location, and costs for questionnaire distribution and completion, a sample population was indicated using Cochran’s formula; in this regard, the sample population was calculated as 384 people. The main instrument used in the study was self-constructed questionnaire; questioning was done across the citizens of Arak. Ultimately, the collected data were processed and analyzed using SPSS and AMOS softwares. The results showed that the six indicators of good urban governance in Arak city are at unfavorable state. Among the indicators of Arak city governance, the ones including effectiveness and efficiency are of the best status with an average of 2.36, compared to other indicators. Furthermore, indicators including participation and access to information were different in various regions. Accordingly, the results of Tukey’s test showed that region 1 with average ratings of 1.85 and 1.66 on the indicators of participation and access to information, respectively, is different from other regions; these ratings are very poor while the status of other regions are at a somewhat better state.
The extent of correlation among the six-fold indicators of good urban governance including participation, efficiency and effectiveness, political stability and fight against corruption, lawfulness, and social equity with ultimate satisfaction is 0.691, which is regarded as a direct and relatively intense correlation. Nevertheless, the six-fold indicators examined in Arak city overall are capable of explaining 47% of variance in the indicator of satisfaction toward good urban governance while almost 53% of changes in this indicator are explained through alternative factors.
Furthermore, the results of structural equations modeling based on factor loadings, regression weight, and different fitness indices demonstrated the fact that the indicators of good urban governance in Arak city are at unfavorable state which can be confirmed by the compiled model.
As a result, the indicators of governance are overlooked within the management of Arak city; while the six examined indicators are not even at an average state according to the residents’ view, they are in fact below average and involve poor or very poor status. Moreover, an examination of the regions’ situations in terms of having these indicators did not show a significant difference between regions except for participation and access to information; region 1 in Arak city is at a very weak state regarding said indicators, compared to the other four regions. However, this does not mean that other regions are of favorable status in this context, except that they are only insignificantly better compared to region 1. Considering the status quo, it appears that the lack of emphasis on applying these indicators could definitely bring about irreversible damages to Arak city management. Given the findings of the study, Arak city is at an unfavorable state in terms of good urban governance indicators. Not only the continuation of this process could lead to various issues in the context of community participation and various interactions aimed at urban development, diverse urban plans are incapable of offering a standard, sustainable situation. Subsequently, the application of governance indicators with significant emphasis should be included in Arak city planning by managers and administrators.