مجله تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی
سال ششم شماره 3 (پاییز 1393)

In this paper، the effect of energy consumption on non-oil economic growth has been investigated on three economic sectors of Iran (agriculture، industry and services) from 1991 to 2010. Basic model of study has been selected according to the augmented fluctuation of neoclassical economic growth framwork. Empirical analysis has been achieved on the basis of panel unit root tests، cointegration panel tests and estimation of panel long-run cointegration relations with FMOLS and DOLS. The results show that there is a long-run cointegration relationship between energy consumption and non-oil GDP. Elasticity of non-oil GDP to energy consumption، physical gross capital and employed manpower is according to the theories and previous empirical studies. Comparison of this elasticity with both estimators of cointegration panel long-run relations shows that results are very close to each other. Also by using estimation of fixed effects model، elasticity of non-oil GDP to energy consumption in agricultural، industry and services sectors are 0. 34، 1. 15 and 0. 39، respectively.

The objective of this research is analyzing trade potentials of export of the Iran’s shrimp to the member countries of European Union and examining determinant factors that are influential in this process. This research has utilized standard and augmented gravity models. In order to estimate the model, the panel data for European countries over the period of 1991-2011 are used. For explanation of the effects of the determinants, the model has estimated in two scenarios. In the first scenario, in a standard gravity model, estimated the impact of per capita GDP and the geographical distance between the importer and exporter countries. In the second scenario, the impact of sanitary regulation and exchange rates estimated using augmented gravity model. The results indicated that per capita GDP of Iran, the geographical distance between both of the partner countries, exchange rates of importer countries and sanitary regulation imposed by importer countries, had significant negative influence on the export of the Iran’s shrimp to the member countries of European Union. Also, the per capita GDP of importer countries and Iran’s exchange rate had positive influence on the export of shrimp. In addition, the trade potential and trade success in shrimp export to member countries of European Union was evaluated by using standard gravity model. Spain had the highest trade success, by fourfold of available capacities for export, and Germany had the lowest trade success in using the existent capacities.

This paper attempts to measure the technical، allocative and economic efficiency and productivity of irrigated watermelon growers of 12 provinces of the country using non-parametric method of data envelopment analysis (DEA) and Malmquist index for the years of 2005-2010. For this purpose، the input-based method was used with three inputs and one output. The results showed that the average technical، allocative and economic efficiency of irrigated watermelon growers of the provinces of the country was 79. 4 percent for the years of 2005-2010. The average allocative and economic efficiency were 75. 9 and 61. 5 percent، respectively. This suggests that the irrigated watermelon growers have not the appropriate level of the mentioned performances in the selected provinces of the country. The calculation of efficiency of the selected provinces shows that four provinces experienced a ppositive growth on average and other provinces experienced negative growth on average during the years of 2005-2010. So that by study of provincial productivity ranking، it was observed that the provinces of Sistan and Baluchistan and Hamadan had the highest and the lowest productivity in the production of irrigated watermelon compared to other provinces، On the other hand، the productivity values of provinces showed that the appropriate productivity of the selected provinces was mostly due to the changes in technical efficiency.

In this study، export and import earnings instability in agricultural sub-sectors of Iran is calculated by using of Love index during 1996-2010، and its impact on the growth of sub-sectors is investigated. Results of the Solow growth model estimation by using panel data and fixed effects approach show that agricultural sub-sectors growth decreases for each one percent increase in the exports and imports earnings instability by0. 024 and 0. 038 percent respectively. Exports and imports instability increases the risk of foreign trade and consequently the risk of activity in these markets. In these conditions، traders and farmers limited their activities، and or transferred their capital to other industries less uncertainty. Sub-sectors growth model is used partially. The results indicate a direct correlation between instability of export with growth of farming، horticulture and animal husbandry subsectors. Also، the effect on growth of fisheries and forestry sub-sectors estimated to be negative. Instability of import growth is directly related to the forestry sub-sector and has a negative effect on growth of other subsections. Therefore، adopting policies to avoid instability and reducing its consequences can have a positive impact on growth، employment and investment in the agriculture sub-sectors.

Farmers'' facing risk and uncertainty in crop production and diversication is a traditional way to reduce risk. Attemps are made، in this papar، to measure the raito of diversification in crop production in Fars province. For this purpose، entropy indices were used. The factors that affect the diversification are also analyzed. The data of five prominent products; wheat، rice، cotton، suger beet، were used for 1996-2010 period. These data are used for various townships of the province. The results revealed that agriculture diversification has a direct relationship with price of products and a advers relationship with cost of production. Product diversification،also، increases with increase in farm and non-farm income، insurance of products. The relation between export and diversification of products was positive while the relationship between diversification and import was negative.

This paper aims to estimate the technical efficiency of grape producers of central area of Dena County and to analyze the effect of drip irrigation on it. For this purpose، Cobb-Douglas production function was used for two groups of grape producers (beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of drip irrigation. The results revealed that the level of pesticide، fertilizers and machinery had significant effect on of grape production of those producers who used drip irrigation. Also، the results revealed a positive correlation between all the socio-economic factors such as age، education level، attending extension courses، household size and non-farm work with technical efficiency. The mean technical efficiency of this group of grape producers was 71 percent. Considering the production function estimation of non-beneficiaries of drip irrigation، all the inputs had significant effect on the production level. Also، the results revealed a negative effect non-farm work and positive effect of household size and extension on technical efficiency.

This study was carried out to investigate the factors influencing on farmers'' savings in Multinomial Logit model framework and using a cross sectional data of 153 farmers that selected by random sampling in Khorasan Razavi province in 2010. The dependent variable included four categories with saving under 2 millions، between 2 and 5 millions، between 5 and 10 and more than 10 millions Rls. Reference class is fourth class of savings. Results showed that the variables of farm ownership، household size and annual revenue had negative and age، first and second levels of diversity and distance of village from nearby towns had positive effect on farmers'' saving. Experience of farmers، household size and annual revenue had negative and variables of age، two level of agricultural activities diversity and distance of village from nearby towns had positive and significant effect on farmers'' choice on the second class saving to the fourth class saving. Variables of average experience of farmers، size of farm، annual revenue had negative and significant effect and variables of second level of agricultural activities diversity and distance of village from nearby towns had positive and significant effect on farmers'' choice on the third class saving to the fourth class saving. Based on the results of study suggestions for increasing saving of farmers are presented.

Due to increasing urbanization and the dependence of urban households on food consumption، the food security of urban households is important; however، the issue of food security in the Sistan and Baluchistan province which is one of the underserved areas in the country، has been the main issue. In this paper، by using data of household budget expense in Sistan and Baluchistan province food intake was assessed in 2001 and for the convenience of the analysis 223 food items are divided into nine groups and the households were ranked on deciles basis. Then the Engel curve for each group was plotted by using LOWESS algorithm and MATLAB software. The results showed food consumption in the lower income deciles households was less than basic needs and they were food insecure. Urban households with low income had low purchasing power for two groups of «meat» and «fruits and nuts» that are the main sources of protein and carbohydrates. To remedy the situation، policies such as distributing subsidized food among low income deciles recommended.

Regarding the importance of date export in Iran، in this study، condition of world markets and examining of one price in these markets are investigated for 1961-2008 by using Cointegration approach and Granger causality test. The results show that prices in world markets and between important exporters such as Iran، Tunis، UAE، Iraq and Saudi Arabia are integrated. So it can be claimed that the law of one price exists in world markets. Also there is price integration between date world price and export price as well as long-term one price law in Iran’s export markets. Besides، granger causality test show that Iran’s export markets price affects world prices and the contrary situation is not true. So regarding the conformation of one price law in world date price and Iran’s pace in this market، it is suggested that to keep the situation of Iran among foreign competitors: 1. The condition of world market to be continuously supervised، 2. Through supporting policies specially commercial policies، to improve the quality of products suitable packing، 3. To determine the suitable potential and actual markets، 4. To maintain the situation of Iran in world markets.

High dependence of agricultural production on nature and market factors cause activities in this field be so risky. In this paper we try to recognize effective factors on risk for pistachio farmers in sirjan. Needed data were collected by interviewing with 186 farmers in 2012. For statistical analysis، we used tobit discrete regression. Results show that risk frequency of previous year، diversity of cultivated crops، off farm employment; crop acreage was affecting risk positively. Also age، participating in a crop supervisory، ownership of machinery، Insured crop acreage had negative effect on production risk. Finally، some recommendations are made to reduce factors affecting risk.