فصلنامه راهور
پیاپی 41 (بهار 1397)

Road networks development and continual changes due to traffic and environmental factors, has a significant effect on accidents’ rate, which consequently cause casualties, financial losses and other problems. The purpose of this research study is to introduce an appropriate model for predicting accidents and evaluation the effects of rainfall and frost on road accident. Therefore, after collecting data in routs leading to Miyaneh city police station, each of the climate related factors effects was investigated and also the correlation between accidents occurrence and climate factor was analyzed. Then, the recorded collisions (injury, death and property damage) and the number of accidents during 1391-1393 in rainy and freezing condition, were modeled by neural network model. Also, the accidents number were predicted using Poisson model. Based on the relation between average temperature and the number of accidents, it was found that the number of accidents changed when the temperature rise, and generally in the cold months of year, because of the lowest traffic, the least number of accidents have been take place. The results showed that both Poisson and neural network models have a good ability to predict the total number of accidents. Artificial neural network had a better accuracy in accident prediction, which the R2 value in training and testing steps are about 98 and 96 percent, respectively. In Poisson model the R2 value for presented model and its validation were 53 and 64 percent, respectively. Also, statistical analysis showed that between observed and modeled number of accidents at the level of five percent, there is no significant difference.

Road transport in our country the most common and the most accessible method is the movement of goods and passengers. Motor vehicles in road transport revolutionized and brought many benefits to human society. Unfortunately, the interests of human casualties have been accrued on the road. Road accidents as a result of a combination of various environmental factors, behavioral and technological occur. Weather conditions in recent years as one of the most important factors affecting road accidents has attracted the attention of many researchers and numerous studies have been conducted in this area.In the present study, the effect of climatic factors on road accidents in the country one of the axes (Axis of Bandar Sirjan) is studied. Therefore, climatic parameters of temperature, ice, snow, rain, cloudiness, precipitation, visibility, horizontal, relative humidity and sunshine hours and accidents as independent variables in the study area were chosen as the dependent variable.
After analysis, it was found that the temperature climatic parameters in the study area had the greatest impact on accidents. It was found that the largest number of accidents occurred on weather conditions Sun temperature more than 25 degrees. At the end of the road in terms of accident risk zoning maps in each of the different climatic conditions to the axis of the draw.Unlike cold and dry in the snow and icy conditions most effective factor in the accident, in the south of the country, especially in the arid and hot climate, temperature element, the main cause of accidents. Accordingly, it is proposed the construction of a road weather station at the center of the above, to observe the minute weather conditions, temperature in hot conditions elsewhere.

Among the important issues, the question of justice and equality in the design of the network is being used. There have been various concepts of equality, including equality between generations, equality between landowners and equality between the users of the system. As well as ways for considering the measure in question is investigated, such as problem solving multi-objective or add conditions of equality as a restriction. In this study, the purpose of social justice that is considered urban development plan including toll of civilians and their spending in a way that conflicts of interests between any pair of area traffic network users does not exceed acceptable value. A parallel programming model to solve two problem of pricing and in terms of social justice networks is investigated. The results of two-state solution with and without observing the conditions of justice about the optimal toll rate has similar results. In the event that the optimal toll rate for non-compliance with the requirement of justice was equal to 1.85 currency, in the case of compliance with the conditions of social justice and equality, this rate was equal to 1.6 currency. Observation shoed that optimality of the objective function and answer are reduced, the general interest of the users of the network declined.

Accidents are the most important factors in today's world, and accidents within the city may lead to further damages and traffics , due to the importance of this issue ,further research should be focused on accidents. In this thesis, the statistics taken from traffic patterns in Tehran have been used to predict the traffic accidents in the city of Kermanshah with simple linear regression models as well as multiple linear regression correlation between variables in the model. The aim of this study was to predict the total number of crashes, accidents leading to property or bodily damages and or death , according to the statistics of the variables in the Kermanshah Province. Variables in this study or variables that are imported in the regression model are : the study of total number of accidents, accidents with damages, maim and death, the number of accidents on sunny, cloudy or rainy weathers, and other vehicles responsible for accidents within the city (Kermanshah Province) during the four years from 1383 to 1386 on a monthly basis. In this survey softwares like Excel or Spss 16 has been used for calculations. The results show that the average of total number of accidents in the city of Kermanshah is 478.6 per month and the average of 466.53 damages and 67.37 bodily damages and 2.63 death accidents per month. The correlation between the variables shows , the total number of accidents with number of damage accidents equal to 0.941 and With the number of Death accidents is 0. 603 and With the number of accidents on sunny days equal to 0. 660 , that is a strong positive correlation so the increase in each of them will lead to the increase of others.

Nonconformity driving of rules by drivers, As a deviant behavior, one of The main causes of irregularities are in urban traffic. Various factors like economic situation, Social and cultural conditions can affect citizens' diversion behavior In compliance with the rules and traffic norms have direct or indirect impact, the purpose of this research, determining the relationship between economic, social and cultural variables are about observing the norms of traffic.

Research method in this is scrolling, Statistical population of this research are Drivers the city of Islamshahr. Information about dependent and independent variables was collected through the questionnaire. Sample size examined using the Cochran formula are 384 people. Validity of the questionnaire by Cronbach alpha is obtained 0.803 and in processing and analyzing data used of excell and Spss statistical software and for data analysis use of Pearson correlation coefficient tests and and multiple regressions.

The results showed a high and positive correlation between economic, cultural and social variables, are with Observing traffic norms. the three variables are able to explain 72.6% of the variance of normal traffic drivers is drivers.

In the emergence of abnormal and traumatic behaviors, several factors as emerging factors and backgrounds are effective. that perpetrator, only part of the theorem. in fact, there must be exacerbating factors, Corrected abnormal behavior and besides it teaching people with abusive behavior , not that he suppressed him.

Abstract
Traffic accidents in Iran have a lot of worrying situations. Each year about 23000 people are killed and ten times more injured and billions of dollars worth of damage are due to the size of the costs and casualties imposed on the Iranian community. Most investigations follow these events in terms of objectivistic and statistical reasons. But what is less at stake in this regard is the widespread social dimension of the consequences of the incident. Understanding these outcomes and injuries is so much that many people fall victim to the vulnerable and vulnerable group. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the social consequences that road traffic accident victims are experiencing and in a qualitative way trying to understand the different dimensions of these consequences at different levels.
The results of this study reveal a wide range of injuries. ranging from micro levels to macro levels of society. At the micro level which is the same as the victims and the victims of accidentsthe most important of these consequences are: forced lifestyle, increased anomie feeling, increased stress and stress, personal rights violations, job and educational shakiness, financial and identit and reduced social capital. At the middle or family level these outcomes include: economicpsychological and psychological pressures on family members, family planning crisis, family planning shocks, family psychosocial insecurity, demographic decline of the family, and so on.At the macro level the consequences of heavy economic damage to the state, social exclusion and social exclusion, the decline in the average age of life expectancy, the wasting of skills and expertise, increased costs of police control and control,the reduction of the productive and increasing corpses