فصلنامه تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران
سال چهل و پنجم شماره 4 (زمستان 1393)

The aim of this study is to develop a model to provide projections of supply of major crops in target year 2025 in Iran. To this end, a model was constructed using positive mathematical programming (PMP) approach. The model takes into account production factors constraints in different provinces in the base year as well as in the target year, and provides forecasts of potential supply of major crops in each of the provinces as well as in national level. In addition, price levels and land productivity of the crops for target year as input to the PMP model were projected using ARIMA time series approach. Results indicate that from 2008 to 2025, total crop production will increase from 36.17 million ton to 45.5 million ton with a cumulative growth rate of 25.8 percent. The rate of change differs among different crops. Cereals show the highest growth rate (%76.1) while vegetable (%2.15) and industrial crops (%20.5) reveal the lowest ones. Comparing the predicted supply with those of demands, indicate that supply of wheat, potato, onion and cereals will meet the direct demand for these commodities, however, the country will experience supply shortages in the case of oilseeds, sugar beet and rice and calls for more investments in production.

Agricultural activity is full of risks. In this activity, various natural, social and economic risks have created a fragile and vulnerable situation for producers. Price risk in agricultural products has caused financial problems for many producers and farmers. To deal with these price risks and price fluctuations, there are a variety of tools. This study focused on futures markets instruments as risk management tools for date's price risks. This study uses monthly futures prices of dates and using mean-variance framework, the optimal hedge ratio with OLS method would determined. Due to The conditional variances autocorrelated in residuals in regression models time varying hedge ratios with Bivariate GARCH models is determined. Bivariate GARCH model is used in this study to determine hedge ratios. Therefore, first the time varying conditional variance covariance matrix with using multivariate models based on heterogeneous variance BEKK (1, 1) is estimated. Then, using the results of this matrix, the optimal time varing hedge ratios were calculated. Dates future price is predicted using artificial neural networks pattern and the GARCH model. The results of hedge performance show that time varying hedge ratios are eliminated more price risk than the OLS method. The results show that the averaged hedge ratios of Bivariate GARCH model is 0.7, meaning that about 70% of the date's price risk, could be reduced with sales in the futures market.

In recent years, degradation of environment (water and soil resources) by farmers has increase concerns about sustainability of agriculture. Farmers’ behaviors affect conservation of these resources and play important role in sustainability of agriculture as well. Shiraz County like other parts of the country suffers for degradation of soil and water resources. The aim of this study was to provide a model that can predict Farmer’s environmental behavior of Shiraz County using Value-Belief-Norm theory. Statistical population includes the farmers of Shiraz County. Questionnaire was the instrument for data gathering. Multi-stage cluster random sampling was used to collect data from 372 farmers as the research sample (by Krejcie & Morgan). The questionnaire validity was confirmed by panel of professors at Agricultural Extension and Education Department Shiraz University. The questionnaire reliability was assessed with Cranach’s alpha (data from pilot study). The results showed that biosphere value-orientation, altruistic value- orientation, environmental personal (moral) norm, and responsibility to protect environment had the most influence on forming farmers’ environmental behaviors. Adduced as recommendations are 1) providing the training to change farmer’s egoistic value-orientation to biosphere value-orientation and altruistic value- orientation; 2) provide training the personal (moral) to correct relationships between famers and environment, and 3) increase farmer’s responsibility for protection of environmental resources.

This study has been conducted having two main purposes including examining the structural model of leadership stereotype, leadership competency, and achievement motivation in leadership role and investigating the moderating effects of gender on the overall model. Using a sample of 303 extension agents from three Jihad-e-Agriculture Organizations of Tehran, Kermanshah, and Khorasan Razavi provinces in Iran, we conducted a survey using structured questionnaires. The data were collected and analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) multivariate technique. The results showed that leadership stereotype and leadership competency significantly influence achievement motivation in leadership role of extension agents while the relationship between leadership stereotype and leadership competency was not significant. The results further demonstrated that the relationships among leadership stereotype with leadership competency and achievement motivation in leadership role have been moderated by gender. In fact, it has been concluded that leadership stereotype favors men in developing leadership competency and achievement motivation in leadership role while it is negative for women. This study, in regard to leadership stereotype, suggests that although the pressures of stereotypical thinking have not gone away but changing them is time consuming and needs constant negotiations, and therefore, presenting the training program on how to correct these stereotypes in a person is a strategy for starting this action.

Agricultural Land use change (ALC), due to its direct relation with some issues such as food security and environmental sustainability, has become one of the main challenge of humanity in the 21 century. According to the 2012 FAO report, from 1970 to 2009, the per capita of arable land in the world and Iran respectively has decreased 1.46% and 2.054%. It represents that ALC conditions in Iran is worse than the most of the other areas of the world. Undoubtedly reduction the area of agricultural lands entails the various economical, social and environmental Impacts. The main object of this study was analyzing the impacts of ALC. This study was a survey research which conducted by interviews and correspondence. The data collection instrument was a questionnaire. The study group consisted of experts who were working in Agricultural Lands Organizations and Administrations in 2013. Since they were limited, all of them were interviewed. The numbers of interviewees were 101 persons. They were randomly selected through 135 experts. This study showed, "accelerating the process of ALC due to change in the price of the land", "increasing the motivation of ALC among other farmers" and "increasing the consumption of energy" were the most important economical, social and environmental impacts of the ALC. But, based on the results of structural equation model, "reduction the incentive to live in rural areas", "increasing the income risk of rural households" and "reduction the air quality" although were not the most important impacts, but were the most effective social, economical and environmental impacts of these changes.

The overall aim of the present study was to estimate the time series of agricultural employment in the Gilan province during the years 1355- 90 and modeling and forecasting employment using artificial neural networks for years 1391-98. For this purpose, employment series calculated by interpolation and input variables selected based on previous theoretical and empirical research. Finally, number of agricultural work force predicted through designing and training of different neural networks architectures. Required data obtained through population and housing report of 1355 to 1390 and provincial statistical year books. Results showed that number of employees during the period from 1391 to 1393 will be lower than in 1390 and then during 1394 to 1398 will be increased. Due to lack of time series data of economic variables at the regional level, this research is an essential and primary step to achieve reliable statistics of number of agricultural employment at provincial level that Provide required data for future studies on labor market and can be used for planning and policy making by related authorities.

the aim of this study is quantity determining and evaluating of the quality position of teaching and learning process. So the artificial neural networks were used for modeling nonlinear relationships to inspect and evaluate different models of service quality evaluation. The statistical population was including 1070 peoples, which were master and PhD students of Faculty of Agriculture of Ferdowsi University (Mashhad). 280 questionnaires were collected by using Morgan table; from which 202 questionnaires were finally analyzed. In order to inspect and evaluate the quality of teaching and learning process, four models were used with artificial neural networks; including non-weighted Servprof, non-weighted Servqual, weighted Servprof and weighted Servqual. The results of the artificial neural network method showed that weighted Servqual model is more accurate to evaluate the quality of teaching and to predict satisfactory. 7-29-14-1 architecture with 29 and 14 neurons respectively in the first and second hidden layers and one neuron (weighted Servqual) in the output layer was chosen as the best model for determining the quality evaluation. This architecture has the best results for R (0.96), MAE(0/18), MSE (0/06) and MAPE (4.41%) between the actual and modeled values.

Due to the importance of technological development in agriculture, it is necessary to increase intention of technology using and so its adoption among farmers. The aim of this study was Investigating influence factors on farmer's intention in using modern channels. Research population was all farmers covered of Feyzabad networks water supply in Fars province (192 farmers). Samples of 127 farmers were selected through stratified random sampling. Data was collected using a questionnaire. Face validity of the questionnaire was obtained through a panel of experts and reliability was obtained through pilot testing. The Cronbach's alpha ranged from 0.72 to 0.91. Results revealed that subjective norm and attitude towards the use of modern channels had positive and significant direct effect on the intention of using modern channels. Also, social capital, compatibility, access to information, the tendency of participation in project, Sense of belonging to the irrigation network, years of experience in farming and observability of results had significant direct effect on attitudes toward the use of the modern channels. According to results, some recommendations have presented at the end of article.

The general aim of this research was the investigation of central curriculum components in enhancement of Tehran University agriscience student employability which was implemented based on the survey methodology. The statistical sample in question was Tehran University agriscience postgraduate Students that were in total 1491 cases. The sample size was determined as 310 persons through Morgan table and among them randomly and through use of proportional allocation sampling methodology was used to choose the sample. Questionnaires that were compiled and distributed to gather data and the related information, was employed to measure constructs. Having acquired the views of the Tehran University agricultural extension and education experts, the face validity of the questionnaire was confirmed. The reliability coefficient of the questionnaire was based on the alpha coefficients and calculated above 0.81. Dominant statistical method was canonical correlation (CCA). For data processing SPSS17 package was employed. The results showed that, current curriculum only fostering academic skills and business development and personal development skills are absent and have a decreasing stream. End of article some of suggestions and implications are forwarded.

Consumption of dairy products in terms of the health and economic terms is very important. The analysis of consumer behavior can help to take policies consistent and correct in this regard. In this study the demand for milk, yogurt and cheese, using time series data related to the year in 1363-1388 in the framework of the idea of an almost ideal demand system was estimated. The results showed that all of own-price elasticity is negative. The elasticity of milk and cheese are low but the yoghurt elasticity is high. All the income elasticities are positive, and the calculation of Allen elasticity showed that there are a substitution relationship between “milk and yogurt” and “yogurt and cheese” and complementary relationship between “milk and cheese”.

Increased use of chemical fertilizers and environmental crisis had increased of interest in sustainable agriculture. The farmer's knowledge related to sustainable agriculture has an important role in their environmental behaviors. This research investigated factors affecting men and women cotton producers’ knowledge. The research was conducted as a survey using stratified random sampling in Isfahan Province. The subjects were selected from 178 cotton producers families (179 and 178 men and women, respectively). The findings indicated that age and years of agricultural job had negative correlation with women cotton producers’ knowledge of sustainability. Findings indicated that access to information and environmental affects were major determinates of women and men cotton producers’ knowledge of sustainability. Findings indicated that women and men cotton producers with agriculture as a principle job, had a better knowledge of sustainability. The results indicated that awareness of environmental consequences, moral norm toward sustainable activities, yield of cotton and ascription of behavioral responsibility were determinates of men cotton producers’ knowledge of sustainability.

Traditional dairy farms play important role to obtain dairy and rural household income. Rural woman are managers these units. Unfortunately, they havent educated because of social and cultural problems. Milk production contain high microbial count endanger community health and also producers economic in traditional farms. The project has studied educational needs of rural women regarding safe milk production, using correlation descriptive methods. Statistical community includes all rural women in Bam city that using two stages cluster sampling method was selected 90 numbers to complete questionnaire. The results showed that there are significant relationship between variables age, studies level, cow keeping record times of presence of participants in educational class, visiting selective cow dairy farms and study extensive issues whit dairy farmers women knowledge. Finally, it was concluded that traditional dairy farmers women need largely to educate about feeding, disease and health of animal.

Access to adequate food and health nutrition is the major subject in society health and development. So food security has a particular importance among priorities of development in each country. The main purpose of this study was to investigate influencing factors affecting food security among 100 rural households in Kerenchy (a village in Kermanshah County), were selected by random sampling by methodological descriptive and Cross-sectional was performed in 1391. General information questionnaire was used for collecting socio - economic situation of population also for surving food security situation of population used standard questionnaire (USDH). Data analysis was performed using Chi-square test and logistic regression. Results showed; there were positive significant relationship among Socio - economic household's status with theire food security instance; monthly family income, father's job status, live facilities, level of mother education and family size. Based on the final results of the logistic regression, among all of the variable in this study; father's occupational status, household income and access to facilities were having the greatest effect on the prediction of Study on food security.

The Study of Socio-Economic factors influencing farmer's Attitudes towards Integrated Pest Management in Mashhad The Study of Socio-Economic factors influencing farmer's Attitudes towards Integrated Pest Management in Mashhad This research was done with aim to analyze the influencing factors on Farmers’ Attitudes toward IPM in Mashhad. The statistical population was 1500 farmers and 160 farmers were selected with Cochran formula. This research study farmer’s attitude and analyze the socio-economic factors influencing the IPM. There was statistically significant relationship between farmer’s attitude and information canals, distance to city and income. The result of Multiple Discrimination Analysis Regression revealed that 44% of variability in farmer’s attitude stems for information canals and income.

The Purpose of this research was to determine the attitude of agricultural advisory and technical engineers towards ANREO. The population of this study included 127 engineers in Songhor Township. Based on their job tenure and field of study, a purposeful sample of 45 engineers participated in this study. This study was conducted using Q methodology. It is a combination of qualititative and quantitative methods to identify people´s mindset. Using focus group interview, 25 statements were derived and recorded on each Q card. In the next step, all 25 validated cards were handed over to participants for sorting. Results of Q factor analysis revealed that engineers hold four mindset (visionary, critically, constructivist and conservative look)towards ANREO. The result of this study has implications for ANREO in Kermanshah province. If ANREO is to attract and retain more members, they need to take members’ attitude into consideration.

Water markets are instrumental in efficient allocation and pricing of scarce water by enhancing allocative and price efficiency of water use. The prerequisites for water market formation are tradable water rights independent from ownership of the land, extensive water canals, water use associations, and adequate market regulations. Mojen water market has been facilitating exchange of alternative water rights for more than 40 years accommodating among other things 30% of total farmers water demand. The total volume of water exchanged through the marker over the 3 year period of 1381-1383(2002-2004) are 38, 54,and 88 Q3, with average price of 555, 651, and 664 IR/Q3, respectively. The purpose of this research is to estimate water demand function and identify the roles that market plays in pricing and efficient allocation of water. The estimated demand price elasticities for single and joint production of potato and wheat are significant and negative. The differential among the absolute value of the estimated elasticities reveals that potato and wheat are the major and the minor crop choice in the farmers’ production plan. Producers are less sensitive to variation of water price when they produce potato and wheat jointly compared to their single plantation. The price elasticity of demand for the former joint outputs is -0.256 compared to that of potato and wheat alone which are -0.276 and -0.477, respectively. The difference between the average products of water for the said crops enforces the obtained elasticities results. Key Words: Water market, Water Price, Agricultural Water Demand, Water User’s Associations, Tradable Water Rights, Mojen Irrigation Corporation.

The purpose of this research was to analyze the impact of agronomic land use change to orchard in the west of Urmia Lake basin. The target population was about 12000 consisting of all the farmers in the west of Urmia Lake basin that changed their agronomic land use to orchard. Using Cochran’s formula and stratified random sampling method, 150 apple and grape orchardists were chosen. Required data were gathered using questionnaire instrument and face to face interview technique. Validity and reliability of questionnaire determined using agricultural extension, environment and soil sciences experts’ viewpoints and the Cronbach alpha coefficient (0.83), respectively. Results showed that irrigated and rain-fed agronomy lands were changed to orchards in 1972 and 1994, respectively. Using exploratory factor analysis, 65 % of the variance of land use change impacts could be explained by profitability and welfare, improving the air and soil quality, promoting the social status and roles, reducing workload, increasing the use of nutrients, improving marketing skills and eco-toxicity of aquatic and terrestrial systems.

Elements of agricultural knowledge and information management (research, extension, farmers, NGO and …) to near together in appropriate process with using farmer field school approach. Also they will profit of experiences and findings scientific and practical of together. The purpose of this study was to determine effect of farmer field school (FFS) approach on agricultural knowledge and information management. The research population consisted of 420 farmers who participated in FFS approach in Sharifabad regional, which were selected using randomized sampling method (200). The methodological approach of this study was descriptive-correlative. Validity of the instrument was established by a panel of experts consisting of senior faculty members and research committee advisors. Reliability analysis was conducted by using Cronbach alpha formula and result was 81. The results showed that 18.8, 16.2 and 65 percent of farmers expressed that their agricultural knowledge and information management were weak, moderate and good respectively. Also the results of the multiple regression analysis (stepwise method) revealed that the management, social, education- extension and economic factors explained a variation of 77.9 percent of the agricultural knowledge and information management by farmers.