فهرست مطالب

Iranian Economic Review - Volume:21 Issue: 49, Autumn 2017

Iranian Economic Review
Volume:21 Issue: 49, Autumn 2017

  • تاریخ انتشار: 1396/10/10
  • تعداد عناوین: 12
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  • Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou * Pages 725-763
    Analyzing more than 9,400 investment transactions performed by 32 sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), from 23 countries, and targeted towards 77 countries, between 2010 and 2013, this study highlights some of the most important visible patterns and nuances in SWF investments. First, lion’s share of SWF investments are cross-border transactions that originated from and targeted towards high-income economies, while SWFs from emerging economies (mainly China) are also becoming important players in the global capital markets. Second, the most popular sectors are the financial and the real estate sectors mainly because of their more liquid nature and the energy sector for its strategic importance.
    Finally, domestic investments are relatively more popular among non-commodity based SWFs in comparison to commodity based SWFs. The results also show that while infrastructure investments are in line with the time horizon of SWF investments and their objectives, only five percent of SWF investments were targeted toward the infrastructure sector.
    Keywords: Sovereign Wealth Fund, Investment, Financial Industry, Real Estate, Oil, Gas
  • Allah Morad Seif, Hossein Panahi, Davoud Hamidi Razi * Pages 765-787
    The main objective of this study is to estimate the spatial spillover effects of the economic growth among the selected countries of MENA region. For this purpose, the Spatial Durbin Model in the framework of spatial dynamic panel data was estimated during the period of 1970-2010. The spatial Diagnostic tests affirmed the occurrence of spatial positive autocorrelation phenomenon for the real per capita income. The obtained results indicated the positive spatial spillover of the economic growth among the MENA countries and the spatial elasticity of per capita GDP was estimated 0.39 percent. Also, according to visualization results, Iran has been surrounded by countries with high per capita income; so opportunity to benefit through the creation of artificial growth poles and economic collaboration with their adjacent countries is available for Iran. Other policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: Real Per Capita GDP, Convergence, Regional Spillover, MENA
  • Vahid Mohammad Taghvaee, Jalil Khodaparast Shirazi *, Mohamed Amine Boutabba, Alireza Seifi Aloo Pages 789-808
    Energy plays an active role in sustainable development in Iran, both in the sustainable and the development aspects. This study aims to estimate the nexus of economic growth and the renewable energy in Iran during 1981-2012. We employ the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to estimate a log-linear equation. The results suggest that renewable energy consumption is an insignificant driver to economic growth in Iran, accepting the neutrality hypothesis, despite the significantly corresponding effects of capital and labor force. Although Iran concentrates mainly on the non-renewable energies such as oil and gas, it has a high spare-capacity in the renewable energy field. It can be rooted in the focus of governors on the fossil fuel energies rather than the renewable ones. It leads to the negligible nexus of renewable energy and economic growth. In Iran, renewable energy has a passive role in economic growth both quantitatively and qualitatively. The governors should promote this kind of energy to assign a large part of total energy consumption to it.
    Keywords: Renewable Energy, economic growth, Iran, ARDL
  • Monireh Rafat * Pages 809-828
    Economic integration among countries has continued to deepen over the past decade. This is especially visible at the regional level, with the escalation of Regional Integration Agreements (RIAs) ranging from Free Trade Areas (FTAs) to Customs Unions (CUs). Nowadays, many developing countries have entered a new regional integration agreement with developed and developing countries. Since international trade and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) are generally recognized as the two main channels of economic integration, the common question is whether international trade and FDI act as complements or substitutes. This paper tries to examine the interaction between trade integration and FDI in Iran, and provide an empirical assessment of the complementarity or substituting relationship between trade and FDI. We consider Iran bilateral trade as integration variable, with selected countries in EU, ASEAN, ECO and D8, by using 2SLS estimators within the period 1994–2014. Results indicate that the bilateral manufacturing export and foreign direct investment have a significant direct relationship with each other in Iran. Also, economic similarities with ECO and D8 have higher effect on both export and FDI.
    Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Regional Trade Integration, Economic Similarity, Bilateral Manufacturing Export
  • Hojat Parsa *, Seyyedeh Zahra Sajjadi Pages 829-845
    This paper aims to investigate the direction of causality between economic growth, energy consumption and trade openness in case of Iran for the period 1967–2012. We apply the newly developed combined cointegration test proposed by Bayer and Hanck (2013). Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is applied to determine the direction of causality between these three variables. The result of Bayer-Hanck cointegration test reveals the existence of cointegration between variables. The causality analysis indicates just a unidirectional causality from energy consumption to trade openness in short run. The long run causality test explores the bidirectional causality between economic growth and energy consumption, and between openness and energy consumption as well as unidirectional Granger causality from openness to economic growth. In addition, we used variance decomposition method and impulse response functions to show the dynamics of these relationships that confirmed low energy efficiency. This paper provides policy makers with insights to design policies for economic growth with a view to energy consumption and trade.
    Keywords: Trade Openness, economic growth, Energy Consumption, Bayer, Hanck Combined Cointegration
  • Zahra Dehghan Shabani *, Ali Hussein Samadi, Amene Zare Pages 847-863
    The market potential is an indicator showing the level of market access and national demand for products of a region. The aim of this study is to study the effect of market potential on regional economic growth in 28 Iranian provinces over the years 2001–2011. In order to do that, a model of regional growth was estimated by using Spatial Dynamic Panel Data technique. This technique allows us to control for endogeneity biases. Based on the findings, the market potential has a significant positive impact on economic growth of Iranian provinces. This means that as the regional market of products gets bigger, it will experience a higher economic growth.
    Keywords: Market Potential, Regional Economic Growth, New Economic Geography Model, Spatial Dynamic Panel Data
  • Hamid Sepehrdoust *, Saber Zamani Pages 865-883
    The main objective of the present study is to find out a clear answer to the question raised in developing countries, that whether such developing economies could be able to achieve economic growth as well as protect their environment simultaneously or these economies still suffer from a severe conflict between environmental protection and economic growth. So, different categories of developing countries were selected and distinguished as oil-based and non-oil based countries for the period 2001-2012. The panel data regression analysis of the information collected from countries showed that the variables such as renewable energy, population growth and the size of internet users have negative and significant effects on the CO2 emission per unit of GDP, while the share of industrial sector value added has a positive effect on CO2 emission per unit of GDP in all categories. Moreover, the rate of urbanization has a negative effect on CO2 emission per unit of GDP in developing but major oil importer countries.
    Keywords: Developing Economies, Environment, Economic Growth, CO2
  • Evans Olaniyi * Pages 885-903
    Can rural financial inclusion enhance agricultural growth? This study, using annual data over the period 1981-2014 and the ARDL bounds testing approach, captures the long run as well as the short-run dynamics of the relationship between financial inclusion and agriculture in Nigeria. The results show that usage of financial services has significant impacts on agriculture both in the short and the long run, meaning that for sustainable agricultural development in rural areas, improving financial inclusion is critical. On the contrary, access to finance has insignificant impacts on agricultural growth. The message is: While provision of access to finance to rural farmers could have many benefits, it is more important to consider the usage of the finance in the rural settings and its impact on rural outcomes that we care about. There is a need for more traditional and non-traditional financial service providers to go back to the land and innovate in the Nigerian agricultural space in order to boost financial inclusion in Nigeria while also substantially reducing poverty and stimulating agricultural growth.
    Keywords: Financial Inclusion, Access to Finance, Usage of Financial Products
  • Maryam Asghari * Pages 905-924
    During the past few decades, national security plays a central role in the process of economic development. Also, foreign investment and trade have rapidly increased worldwide and have enhanced economic growth in developing countries. Although foreign investment and trade bring huge economic benefits, many developing countries fear that by opening up markets to competition and foreign investment without restriction, they will lose national security. Therefore, the balance between economic gains from foreign investment and trade presents a challenging task for national security. Is national security a necessary mechanism for Persian Gulf countries to promote their economic growth? This article will examine how national security and its relation with foreign investment and trade effect Persian Gulf region’s economic growth over the 1990-2014 periods. The results show national security has negative effect but its relation with foreign investment and trade has positive effect on the region’s economic growth.
    Keywords: National Security, economic growth, Foreign Direct Investment, Trade
  • Sajjad Faraji Dizaji *, Neda Al-Sadat Ousia Pages 925-940
    This study examines dynamic interrelationships and causality relationships among CO2 emissions, economic, political and financial variables over the period of 1971-2011 for the case of Iran as one of the top CO2 emitting countries in the world. The results of ARDL and Johansen cointegration approaches confirm the existence of long run relationship among CO2 emissions, energy consumption, GDP, financial development, trade openness and political development. The results of variance decomposition analysis show that energy consumption, GDP and democracy can explain the big parts of the CO2 variations in the first year after initial shock but after ten years the roles of financial development, trade openness and energy consumption are more important. The estimation of long run and short run equations using ARDL approach indicates that the effects of GDP and energy on CO2 emissions are positive in both long run and short run. The effects of democracy although are minor but they are negative in short run and positive in long run. Our results confirm the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between trade openness and CO2 emissions and also a U-shaped relationship between CO2 emissions and financial development both in long run and short run.
    Keywords: Iran, CO2 Emissions, Development, Energy Consumption, Political Changes
  • Alireza Oryoie *, Hossien Abbasinejad Pages 941-968
    This paper studies top income shares in Iran, using 26 Household Expenditure and Income Surveys conducted by the Statistical Center of Iran over the period 1985-2015. It is shown that after the imposed Iran-Iraq war, top income groups were raising their real income and income share by 2006; however, both their share and real income fell immediately after 2006 such that the numbers are now below their wartime level. It is explained that the fall is caused by the negative effects of the United Nations Security Council sanctions on the top capital income earners. The paper also measures the concentration of income by the inverted Pareto coefficient and finds that the concentration had been generally increasing by 2000; however, the upward trend reverses from 2000 onwards. Although the concentration of income and the top income groups’ share have fallen significantly in Iran in recent years, the numbers are still large, and Iran is among the most inegalitarian countries.
    Keywords: Top Income Shares, Income Inequality, Concentration of Income, Sanctions, Iran
  • Sahar Bashiri *, Mosayeb Pahlavani, Reza Boostani Pages 969-1002
    This paper investigates the movement between stock market bubbles and fluctuations in aggregate variables within a DSGE model for the Iranian economy. We apply a new Keynesian monetary framework with nominal rigidity in wages and prices based on the study by Ikeda (2013), which is developed with appropriate framework for the Iranian economy. We consider central bank behavior different from Taylor Rule, and we suppose an economy with oil export. In order to study the role of money in economy, we apply “Money in Utility” approach. We study the TFP shock, the monetary policy shock, the government spending shock, the oil income shock and the sentiment shock. Bubbles in our model emerge through a positive feedback loop mechanism supported by self-fulfilling beliefs. Moreover, a sentiment shock drives the movements of bubbles that explain most of the stock market fluctuations and variations in real economy. The result of calibrated model reveals a relation between moments of variables in the model and moments of real data in the economy. Therefore, this model can help us to analyze the effect of stock market bubbles on macroeconomic variables in the economy.
    Keywords: DSGE Model, New Keynesian, Nominal Rigidity, Share Exchange Market Bubbles