نشریه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی
سال بیست و پنجم شماره 2 (پیاپی 54، تابستان 1393)

Extended abstract 1- Introduction Introduction, medical and health user, such user that the distribution in the city is important, Even for measuring sustainable development of cities as an important factor use. And the proper distribution so that all residents have proper access in the city, Requirement is new urbanism. Tabriz is one of the cities is the Iran that does not have an appropriate distribution of medical space. In this study, the city of Tabriz has been selected as a case study. Methodology, In order to achieve study objectives, information about the hospitals in Tabriz, especially maps 2000 / 1 of Tabriz by the Institute of Geography and Cartography adapt their place on maps of 2000 / 1 on the basis of theoretical analysis and views Has been analyzed. And how their establishment, to identify natural features, neighboring uses, the central level hospitals and..., adapting existing maps have been done with regional field studies. The optimal location for the hospital to adopt the proposed method with a new approach to location using a combination method FuzzyTOPSIS and AHP has been done. raster GIS software environment Results and discussion, To locate hospitals has been used Uses evaluation three Matrix 1 - Matrix compatibility 2 - matrix desirability 3 - matrix capacity. All three matrix expressed mainly is paying qualitative assessment uses. Evaluation of urban land uses are done primarily to reassure them of the establishment reasonable And the proportions necessary observe both quality and quantity. That uses in a region are being establishment, should not are cause inconvenience and hinder implementation other activities.. Accordingly, the uses in terms of compatibility modes may be the following: A) Fully compatible with each other, ie both have some common characteristics and their activity is also consistent with each other. B) is fairly consistent, ie, the amount of incompatibility between these two should have more consistency. C) are fairly incompatible, ie, the amount of incompatibility between them is more uses compatibility. D) are completely incompatible, ie, no uses profile both consistent with each other and not be opposed to each other. E) are indifferent, ie, the two types of uses to adapt it to be different. According to field survey and map the distribution of hospitals in Tabriz, the result is a situation implies that the spatial distribution of hospitals in the study urban planning principles and criteria do not match. Meanwhile, the existing hospital, mostly are located in the central part of the city and distribution of hospitals in other parts of the city, the study was inappropriate.. For example, while hospital conditions there are in North, South and North East Tabriz, mostly hospitals where locate in the central city that commercial sector also means that the large market town of Tabriz is located in its. Conclusion, The final map obtained from the proposed model is shows high performance models in determining optimal location of hospitals, Despite the appropriate uses for the construction of hospitals in the East, South East South and West Town are studied (Map priority lands), Because far from regional centers, low density, proximity to faults and rivers and. ..this areas in final map have been in the indifferent classes or relatively incompatible to the built hospital. According to the maps obtained from hospitals in Tabriz model allows more than 80 percent there are land areas on priority (fully compliant), However, some uses including airports, religious places, ancient sites and communication networks as well as restrictions on the model layer in ourselves. According to the results of the calculated pixel lands GIS environment shows that 9.74 percent of the area of Tabriz for hospital construction in urban area fully compatible unit and 12.4 percent is relatively consistent, is indifferent to 41.07 percent, 9.96 percent completely incompatible land, 5.02 percent and 5.93 percent of the relatively incompatible with the region of Tabriz Area Hospital construction is limited. Despite the good places to build hospitals in the Tabriz city present situation hospitals one type focus on of center can be seen, using appropriate criteria and models proposed in the present study, can be reduced locate the uses is the most important problems of urban.

Extended abstract 1- Introduction Precipitation is usually recognized as the most important and variable factor of climate which is considered from different aspects in environmental sciences especially meteorology and climatology. Because of precipitation temporal-spatial variability importance, and its role in communication and economical disasters, it has attracted much attention by many researchers (Rodriguez et al. 1998; Ochola and Kerkides 2003; Baigorria et al. 2007; Jianting et al. 2009; Nastos and Zerefos 2009). Spatially, the amount and characteristics of precipitation will change greatly, especially in the arid countries and middle-latitudes in distances less than one kilometer. In order to investigate the precipitation variability, various time scales are taken into account. Scales to study the precipitation element varies from different geological eras consisting of several thousands and millions year periods to month, hour, and minute (Livada and Asimakopoulos 2005). 2. Methodology The main data under study are 24-hour maxima precipitation frequency for each month of a year in the whole statistical period. We used 40 weather stations which spread out over the whole country along with a full statistical records and a statistical period of 40-years (1966-2005). Harmonic analysis is usually used to study the periodical changes, and includes oscillations or changes display in a time series obtained from sinus and cosines function set (Kirkyla and Hameed 1989; Wilks 2006). The first harmonic shows an annual cycle with the greatest amplitude as compared to other harmonics. The second harmonic indicates a semi-annual change, while the third one illustrates 4-months seasonal changes in details; besides it is an index of inter-annual patterns of frequency. Eventually, the values of demonstrate the time motion of maxima frequency along the time axis. 3. Discussion 3.1 Harmonic Analysis In monthly data, 6 harmonics are required to explain the data variance. In the studies, also 3 harmonics are used to explain data variance. Of course, since the first two harmonics explain nearly 90% of the total variance, in some research only the first two harmonics are used to study the annual changes (Livada et al. 2008; Nastos and Zerefos 2010). According to the statements discussed above, first harmonic consists of more PVR1 and plays a significant role in variance distribution in central and southern stations. The amount of first harmonics role decreases in north-west stations. 3.1.1 The First Harmonic The 1st harmonic indicates annual changes and explains variance largely in most stations. The first harmonic which signifies an annual alternation in regions with regular precipitation has longer amplitude in comparison with other harmonics. Spatial distribution of the first harmonic demonstrates the following: 1. In northern coasts of Persian Gulf, this value consists of a high value of about 60-70%. 2. In the west, PVR1 values are approximately 80%. 3. The lowest value of PVR1 is seen in southeastern and northwestern of Iran. 3.1.2 The Second Harmonic The 2nd harmonic indicating oscillations with shorter time periods (six months) as compared to 1st harmonic in sections with more PVR1 consists of lower values. PVR2 values in the northwest of the country in Azerbaijan region, the values are remarkable (60%). Spatial distribution of T2 in this section has more complexity. 4. Conclusions Because PVR component indicates the role of each harmonic in explaining and interpretation of variance, in each section which consists of a high value, the higher the portions of changes, the higher the share of changes will be. 1. In many regions in Iran, the 1st harmonic plays a significant role in variance distribution. 2. The highest values of PVR1 for extreme precipitations were observed in Kashan. 3. After the 1st harmonic, the 2nd harmonic has a very important role in variance distribution. 4. Extreme precipitation has a more harmonious pattern in the central parts of Iran around Kashan, southern coasts of Caspian Sea and Persian Gulf's shores as compared to other parts. 5. In northwest and southeast sections, the PVR value of the 1st harmonic is less. On the contrary, PVR value of 2nd harmonic increases especially in the northwest.

Extended abstract 1- Introduction Exposure to fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less than 10 μm (PM10) has negative effects on human health and may induce respiratory problems, cardiovascular and lung diseases, and additional health problems. Both short-term and long-term exposures to PM10 have been linked to increased morbidity. The measurement of ground-level PM 10 concentration on a regular basis is therefore of great importance to epidemiological studies; it also provides valuable information for an effective management and forecasting of air quality. Air quality monitoring networks have been established in many industrialized countries to take measurement of pollutant concentrations at different locations, on a daily or hourly basis. 2-Methodology Anumber of data fromvarious sourceswere collected for this research, including the historical air quality data sets, MODIS aerosol imagery, and ground-based meteorological measurements. In this work, a semi-empirical model is coupled with the Genetic Algorithms (GA) to enhance the estimation of the particulate matter concentration in a local scale and at the satellite passing time. For this, the corrected values of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) retrieved from MODIS images are used. Hence the AODs were corrected for the effects of air humidity and the air mixing height. In semi-empirical method, using genetic algorithm, few weather data were introduced to the model and their effects were considered. Temperature and humidity caused improvement in assessment of PM concentration. 3– Discussion Finally the method was evaluated for Tehran where an acceptable correlation of R2=0. 51 with RMSE of 28 was achieved. However, in the procedure of AOD correction, limitations such as insufficient number of ground-based weather stations and approximate determination of the air mixing height may cause some uncertainties in the proposed method. 4– Conclusion This paper has proposed an effective semi-empirical model for the prediction of ground-level PM10 concentration (GL-[PM10]). Remotely sensed MODIS AOD, and ground-based measurements of surface temperature and surface relative humidity have been found to be highly significant in the prediction. Although MODIS extracted AOD may contain valuable information about particulate matter but this parameter is highly affected by the atmospheric conditions where usually it is hard to acquire the weather data during many satellite overpasses.

Extended abstract 1- Introduction Plant and Animal growth and distribution depend on environmental properties and their reciprocals affects. In world scale, climate is the most important geographic transmittal controller of plant species that traces direct and indirect on environment’s elements effective on plants growth (Villers-Ruiz et al 2003). Other elements as soil, topography are other importance ((O’Brien et al, 1998),(Yaghmaei et al, 2009)). Dependence of plants on climate factors have been been reported by many scientists but quality and quantity’s state of these relationships are different in variants regions (O’Brien et al 1998, Balakram and chauhan 2005, Golfari et al 1978). In this study, Calotropis procera Is selected which is highly resistant to harsh climate conditions, presented significant protection of soil characteristics and economically important in the region. Cognition of plant’s Existential and ecological requirements, special climate, are very important in the plant’s development and expansion in arid and semi-arid abounded ecosystems. The main objective of this study is to characterize effects of climate factors such as temperature, precipitation and humidity on the plant density and crown cover percentage, using multivariate statistical analysis.. 2-Methodology The study area is located in the southern township of Fars Province, he sampling method is based on a selective sampling procedure in a C. P. site in the region (zobeiri, 2007). 35 sites of C. P. have been studied in this study. The samples have been collected through a simple linear transect plan. The Plant Density and Crown Cover Percentage (CCP) have been calculated using field data measured in sampling plots. Accurate Position of each Sample plot has been registered using a hand GPS set and turn into GIS coverage by ARCGIS software package the monthly data, such as temperature, relative humidity and precipitations, collected by Synoptic and Climatology stations of Fars province have been employed in this study. Had be controlled accuracy of data of Synoptic and Climatology stations and then be estimated climatic variables by Inverse Distance Weighting interpolation method with accuracy more than (r=0.8) (Sergio et al, 2003). To investigate relationship between 30 climate and 2 plant variables, the data have been entered in a Principal Component Analysis and Varimax Rotation Methods of SPSS software. 3-Discussion The results indicated that density & Crown Cover Percentage depended on two factors, the humidity and temperature As shown in tab 86.81of total variance (table 1). Table 1: Total Variance Explained Component Crown Cover Percentage Crown Cover Percentage Crown Cover Percentage Temperature 13.76 44.39 44.39 Humidity 13.14 42.41 86.81 The correlation between density and temperature is significant (p<0.05) but the correlation between density and Crown Cover Percentage is not significant (p>0.05) (table 3). Table 3- the correlation results between CCP, precipitation and temperature factors. factor Variable Temperature Precipitation Density -0.4* -0.17 ns Crown cover 0.28 ns 0.32 ns *Correlation is significant at the o.o5 level ns Correlation is not significant 4-Conclusion Due to the results, temperature and humidity have a great influence in the establishment, density changes and, CCP of Calotropic procera at study area. The correlation between density and temperature is significant. It shows that temperature has greater effect on variation of CCP that in the absence of Calotropic procera density. density changes in the northern provinces of Fars province where the climate is cooler. Results be confirmed with Quadratic regression and more density C.P in warmer regions. There is no significant correlation between plant density and humidity factors not means that precipitation does not effect on C.P’s growth and establishment, it is suggested that in areas with low rainfall and Plant in Dry region also has abilities to deploy and underground water is a greater dependence. The establishment of the C.P, rivers, surrounding roads and abandoned arable land (the author's observations) confirm that this And reports (2001) Francis and (2005) Brandes Parrotta also reported in 2001 based on plant growth in arid regions is consistent with the least rainfall of 150 mm. According to regression results, only 36 percent of the density changes and the remaining variables are explained by other elements of climate change and other environmental factors such as soil (Sadeghian et al, 2010), the slope, wind speed and direction and. .. Is justified. Given the importance of plant species for restoration,

Extended abstract 1- Introduction Assessing the climatic characteristics and identifying the climatic elements and parameters of a region, can have a major role in programming and the welfare of that region. Effective Precipitation, as one of the most important climatic elements in the regions of the northwest of Iran with considerable temporal-spatial variations, has a major role in the way environmental, energy, and economic potentials are used. Therefore, predicting natural phenomena like flood and drought and the necessity of correctly recognizing atmospheric conditions and consequently presenting an appropriate solution for fighting natural hazards, has made programmers draw the effective precipitation clusters of this region. 2-Methodology In this research, for comparing the basic period (past) with the simulated data, first the statistics of the daily effective precipitation of the six stations of Ardebil, Ghazvin, Hamedan, Kermanshah, Sanandaj, and Tabriz, have been provided for a 30-year period (1961-1990) and on the other hand, have been compared with the simulated data of 2021 to 2050 that have been generated using the general atmosphere circulation model HADCM3 and the A1 scenario and been downscaled using the LARS-WG model. The method for comparing effective precipitations in different clusters was done based on the clustering in the form of 5 clusters for all the stations and study periods. 3-Discussion One of the results of this research is the greater concentration of effective precipitation for the cold periods of the year (winter and fall) and the increase of annual precipitation by the amount of 20.62 millimeters for the average of the period 2021-2050 compared to the basic period. Also, the results indicate the increase in the intensity of effective precipitation thresholds for the stations of Ardebil, Kermanshah, and Tabriz in future decades compared to the basic period 1961-1990 and the decrease in the number of days in which rain has fallen for Kermanshah, Sanandaj, and Tabriz for future decades. Then, for evaluating the two coordinates of precipitation percentage and cluster frequency percentage compared to a normal line (on each spot of this line the intensity of effective precipitations and the frequency of days are equal) their diagram was drawn. 4-Conclusion The outputs of this section demonstrate that the effective precipitations of cluster 3 which have the features of light rain with average intensity, fall on this normal line for most of the stations and study periods. But the precipitations of cluster 1, are very heavy and intense, which in most cases have the most distance to the normal line. Therefore, the precipitations of the third cluster need optimal exploitation management and the precipitations of the first cluster need risk management and in some cases crisis management.

Extended abstract 1- Introduction Drought is a normal, recurrent feature of climate. It occurs almost everywhere, although its features vary from region to region (Dracup,1980). In the most general sense, drought originates from a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time, resulting in a water shortage for some activity, group or environmental sector (NDMC define). Consequently, it is required to demonstrate the distribution and degree of drought condition timely, which is crucial for drought warning and resisting effectively. The impact of drought on society and agriculture is a real issue but it is not easily described. Reliable indices to detect the spatial and temporal dimensions of drought occurrences and its intensity are necessary to assess the impact and also for decision-making and crop research priorities for alleviation (Chapra,2006;Seiler and Kogan et al.,1998) Therefore, the main objectives of the study are to monitoring drought by remote sensing technique. 2-Data and Study Area The case study area is south part of Khuzestan, in southwest of Iran (Fig 1). There are a variety of land covers in the area, including vegetation, bare area, and waters. Data and method NDVI Surface Reflectance (SR) data of the MODIS Satellite used in this study. This data have a horizontal resolution of 250m and project on a sinusoidal grid. Data have been collected during the period from 2002to 2008 to calculate NDVI. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index is a satellite-derived global vegetation indicator obtained from the red, near-infrared (NIR) ratio of vegetation reflectance in the electromagnetic spectrum. (Weixin,2011) NDVI = ρIR – ρR / ρIR + ρR The parameters, ρIR and ρR, are the reflectivity of nearinfrared and red channels, respectively. NDVI provides information on vegetation productivity and phenology over large temporal and spatial scales and has been widely used in the recent ecological studies as a proxy for vegetation productivity and phenology. NDVI is a good indicator of green biomass, leaf area index, and patterns of production. NDVI was computed using two bands of a surface reflectance image, which varies from -1 to +1. SPI The rainfall data during 1980-2008 were collected from 8 meteorological stations available in the province. These monthly precipitation data were checked for quality control before calculating SPI. The SPI is computed by fitting a probability density function to the frequency distribution of precipitation summed over the desired time scale. This is performed separately for each period/month and for each location in space. Each probability density function is then transformed into the standardized normal distribution (z-distribution). In this study the SPI was calculated on the 12-month time scale (for the end of December) which reflects long-term precipitation patterns. Lloyd-Hughes and Saunders (2002) describe in detail the calculation of SPI, which is outlined here. Those authors also tested the standardization procedure (probability transformation) assuming normal, log–normal, and gamma statistics for precipitation, and concluded that the gamma distribution provides the best model for describing monthly precipitation over most of Europe, especially at the 12-month scale. (costa,2011).. Gamma distribution function is: For > 0 Where >0 is shape factor, >0 scale parameter, precipitation and Gamma function. It can seen that the SPI is the standardize Z. SPI could be calculated for any time scale such as one month and more than it. It is generally that SPI calculated for 3, 6, 12, 24 months scale for drought monitoring.SPI values vary from -3.5 to +3.5. (table 1) Methodology The following section describes the methodology used in the study. Correlation and regression techniques are used to verify if there is a correlation between NDVI and rainfall in south part of Khuzestan between 2002-2008. NDVI and SPI are then compared to produce the best relationship between months. A schematic presentation of the methodology that has been followed is mentioned in figure 2. Select the appropriate place to obtain NDVI for each station As a new approach to find the best location, climatic conditions similar to rain stations should be considered. Hence, six important factors are determined, whereas, each of these conditions will form a layer in the positioning. The location is located about in the minimum distance from any station. The location is in rainfall station classes. The location should be at least in nearest distance to temperature class. The location should be considered at least in nearest distance to elevation class. The location should be in distance to humanity resources. (At least 1 km) The desired location is better placed in first class areas. So, after the layer formation the priority is based on their importance to each region and each layer is given in percent. (Table 2). After weighting to each of the layers, six layers are combined. In fact, the following formula shows this issue as the overlap weighted in geographic information systems.. Positioning map for each area (MSS)was calculated using bellow equation(Abshirini,2009): MSS =(R*15) + (ds*15) + (veg*25) + (T*15) + (drh*15) + (E*15)/100 It should be noted that the considerable work is done individually for each area. Therefore, local stations in each area investigated. After that, to avoid writing more and more all selected areas be shown together on the map (Fig.3). After positioning the best location, attempting to clip the parts selected from images is started, in which, NDVI is applied. Afterwards, means of these parts for each year is computed and the amount of this mean is used as a number in NDVI range to compare. Results Rainfall data collected from Iran Meteorological organization which was used to derive Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Multi-scale SPI (1-month, 2-month, 3-month, 6-month, 9-month and 12-month) was calculated to detect occurrence of drought using the monthly precipitation (1980-2008) data set. Pearson correlation analyses were conducted for the NDVI vs. 1-, 2-, …, and 12-month SPIs. Linear regression was implemented on the NDVI time series and 1 to 12-month SPI. The 12-month SPI was found to have the best correlation with the NDVI, indicating lag and cumulative effects of precipitation on vegetation, but the correlation between NDVI and SPI varies significantly between months (table 4). The highest correlations occurred during the middle of the growing season, and lower correlations were noted at the beginning and end of the growing season in most of the area.The results also indicate that the highest correlations occurred during the middle of the growing season (June), and lower correlations were noted at the beginning and end of the growing season in most of the area. Figure 2 shows the regression equation between mean NDVI of June calculated from 13 June NDVIs. there is a positive correlation between NDV and SPI, and this means that the more rainfall cause the more vegetation cover. Finally we prepared drought map using satellite data (Fig. 5).The results shows that the Rs based map has a good presentation of drought situation of the province. Figure 5 shows the real drought map calculated based on rainfall data and SPI method in compare with remotely sensed map using NDVI. Conclusion In this study, the meteorological drought prone areas in the south-west region of Iran were identified by using Remote Sensing and GIS technology and drought risk areas were to delineate by integration of satellite images and meteorological information. The role of satellite derived index for drought detection has been exemplified by integrating meteorological derived index called Standardized Precipitation Index. It is found that the temporal variations of NDVI anomaly are closely linked with SPI and a strong linear relationship exists between NDVI and SPI. Highest correlation was found in Shushtar area with a R² value of 0.85.There is a significant correlation between NDVI anomaly and 12-month SPI. Thus,it can be said that NDVI index and precipitation index shares a strong correlation where water is a major limiting factor for plant growth. We also find that there is the highest R squares between SPI and NDVI for 6 to 12 month SPI and lower for 6, 3 and 1 month SPIs. The drought maps indicates the more frequent drought for the sought and west of the province in compare to the other parts of the studied area.

Study and Analysis of Synoptic of Dust and Black Storms in Yazd Province Extended Abstract 1-Introduction One of the natural hazards resulted in great damages in dry and wild regions of world and Iran annually is the occurrence of dusty and black storms. Due to Iran geographical situation in arid and semiarid zone of the world, this country is continually exposed to local and synoptic dust systems. Yazd province is also exposed to various dust systems and this destructive phenomenon because of climatic and geographical conditions and adjacency to deserts in neighbor countries. Therefore, the knowledge of this phenomenon can be an efficient step towards its destructive effects, in particular in stabilizing smooth sands within this region. 2-Data and Methods In this research, using wind direction and speed data, horizontal view, pressure, temperature, humidity, could and dust phenomenon in synoptic stations, synoptic maps in the ground surface, 850 and 500 hpa levels, omega, wind vector, wind stream, humid blowing and cyclone and atmospheric data above Yazd station, dusty and black storms in low atmospheric levels were studied during 17 stages in selecting the sample in 1989-2009 years. The necessary maps were taken since two days before starting dust until its peak from NCEP/NCAR databases and drawn in GrADS software. 3-Result and Discussion The results of the research show three dust storm patterns and strong winds during three autumn, winter and spring seasons. The first is autumn pattern (storm October 2, 1997) in which there are pressure gradient between south and central areas of Iran and a hod with deep amplitude in 850 and 500 hecto-pascal levels in western Iran and Yzad province which it couldn’t be fed well in terms of temperature and humidity. The passage of hod and releasing its energy and long term dryness in summer across this region resulted in blowing strong winds and dust storm in this province, especially in Yazd-Ardekan plain. The second is winter pattern (storm February 22, 2009) due to the presence of low-pressure center over the ground and along with deep hods in high levels as well as the passage of cold front through the province and the contact between cold air mass behind front and warm air mass dominant over region. After passing the cold front, sudden downfall of cold air can increase wind speed greatly in dry atmosphere and reduce horizontal view and the occurrence of dust storm in this region. The third is spring pattern (storm may 29, 2003) in which deployment of low pressure cell on the surface of the ground, tilting hod hinge in the upper levels of atmosphere across western Iran and its quick movement and sending short waves through central Iran and Yazd province along with the passage of cold dry and weak front from western north resulted in upward strong flows, high air instability and very serious dust and black storms in Yazd province and get to zero the horizontal view. 4-Conclusion The results of the research show three dust storm patterns and strong winds during three autumn (storm October 2, 1997), winter (storm February 22, 2009) and spring (storm may 29, 2003) seasons. The majority of such storms occur in afternoon hours and in may month and its strong winds mostly blow from west to western north. Keywords: Dust, Storm, Synoptic Map, Trough, Yazd Province.

Extended abstract 1- Introduction Gradual approach to desertification has been caused the means of desertification involves the land degradation in arid and semi-arid areas. In this view the border of equilibrium, non-equilibrium, stable and unstable of ecosystem to detect threshold and ecosystem collapse are undetermined. The opposite of this view arises from thermodynamic approach to desertification which backs from flow-energy changes and equilibrium. In this paper has been explained the system theory to desertification based on thermodynamics analysis. The main of this paper is expression of ecosystem collapse and thresholds based on tipping points and critical transitions. The results of this research have been led to new epistemology for desertification analysis. Catastrophic Changes and Tipping Points The equilibrium state of a system can respond in different ways to changes in conditions such as exploitation pressure or temperature rise (Fig 2 a, b, c). If the equilibrium curve is folded backwards (Fig 2 c, d), three equilibria can exist for a given condition. The grey dotted arrows in the plots indicate the direction in which the system moves if it is not in equilibrium (that is, not on the curve). It can be seen from these arrows that all curves represent stable equilibria, except for the dashed middle section in Fig 2 c, d. If the system is driven slightly away from this part of the curve, it will move further away instead of returning. Hence, equilibria on this part of the curve are unstable and represent the border between the basins of attraction of the two alternative stable states on the upper and lower branches. If the system is very close to a fold bifurcation point (for example point F1 or point F2), a tiny change in the condition may cause a large shift in the lower branch (Fig 2 c). Also, close to such a bifurcation a small perturbation can drive the system across the boundary between the attraction basins (Fig 2 d). Thus, those bifurcation points are tipping points at which a tiny perturbation can produce a large transition. Slowing Down Theory A simple way to understand why we should expect early warnings before critical transitions is to think of the behavior of a system as the motion of a ball in a landscape of valleys and hilltops (Fig 3). Balls represent the state of the system. Valleys correspond to the basins of attraction of the two alternative stable states of the system. The width and the steepness of the basin of attraction determine the capacity of the system to absorb a perturbation without shifting to an alternative state, and reflect the resilience of the state of the system. As conditions bring the system close to a critical transition (critical threshold1), the basin of attraction of the current states of the system shrinks and so does its resilience: even a tiny perturbation is enough to shift the sphere to the alternative valley. At the same time, the steepness of the basin of attraction becomes lower: this means that the same perturbation that may not tip the system, it will definitely take longer to dissipate due to the phenomenon of critical slowing down (Fig 3 b, c). Mathematically, critical slowing down is connected to the fact that close to the critical transition the dominant Eigen value of the system at equilibrium vanishes. Practically, this approach enables us to probe the dynamics of the system in order to assess its resilience and the risk of an upcoming transition. Discussion The hydrographic, vegetation and ripple mark patterns are same regular and irregular patterns found in the arid ecosystems. There are particular spatial patterns that can arise before a critical transition. In dry regions self-organization can lead to particular spatial patterns under some conditions. Here the complete loss of vegetation is an important transition, as recovery from the barren state may require more rain than is needed to preserve the last patches. There is good evidence to support the idea that a regular pattern characterized by spots of vegetation signals the proximity of a threshold to such catastrophic desertification. Vegetation pattern dynamics can be a sign to forecast desertification and ecosystem stability. In arid ecosystems, the number of vegetation patches appears as a straight line when plotted as a function of their size on logarithmic scales. These ecosystems exhibit many small patches and progressively rarer large ones, and they show no characteristic patch size. However, arid ecosystems that experienced high grazing pressures show a deficiency in large patches compared with power laws. Therefore, it has been proposed that deviations from pure power laws towards fewer large patches could serve as indicators of the proximity to a desertification threshold. Despite the potential practical relevance of patch size distributions for the management and preservation of spatially organized ecosystems, the ecological mechanisms underlying the wide emergence of power laws and their deviations are not yet fully understood. Desertification and emerging desertified landscape is due to responses of ecosystem to environmental perturbations. This catastrophic process is with formation of regular and irregular patterns which are early warning signals to forecast desertification.

Extended abstract 1- Introduction The new approaches of urban and transportation planning are being aimed to facilitate pedestrian movement and improve the quality of spaces denoted specifically to pedestrians in the last two decades. In this regard, the route of a movement is as important as the origin and destination points of that movement. One of the contributing factors in facilitating the flow of pedestrian movement is creating over/underpass. A huge bulk of funding has been denoted to establish and maintain such structures in Iranian metropolitan areas in recent decades. However, field experience shows that in most cases, if possible, a significant proportion of pedestrians are less likely to use overpasses. The main theme of this paper is to identify and then measure and analyze the scope and quality of the factors influencing the use or non-use of pedestrian overpass. For this purpose, a total of 20 bridges with relatively balanced distribution throughout the metropolitan Shiraz are selected. Then some 300 pedestrians are interviewed to ask about their usage of footbridges and desires of using them. The result of interview shows that lack of lift or ramp is a crucial factor in using a bridge. Moreover, low perception of personal security when passing over the bridge is a negative affective factor. These two factors especially matter for non-drivers who choose walking for any reason. The results of the discrete choice model indicate that there are factors such as the physical obstacle under the bridge, history of residence, accident record and the appearance of the bridge effective. The findings of this paper can be helpful in managerial decision making for the improvement of exist bridges or establishment of new ones.

Extended abstract 1- Introduction The reduction of biomass in arid, semi- arid and semi- humid ecosystems is called desertification. In recent years, processes of desertification have created many unrepairable damages. Desertification in developing countries and in countries with the high potential of decortications is more severe. Then, control of this phenomenon, spatially in these countries is more useful. To present the strategies and suitable methods for management in this background, understanding of effective parameters in desertification is very important and virtual that it should be investigated. Many researches for investigating the condition of desertification have been done by some researchers in the world such as Harasheh et al (2000), Ladisa et al (2002), Lira (2004), Monia Santini et al (2010), Faiz nia et al (2000), Abrisham (2004), Khosravi (2004), Fallah mehne (2004), Sepehr (2005), Ahmadi (2006), Zehtabian et al (2006), Chaman pira et al (2006), Abdi (2007), Tabatabaei (2010). 2-Methology The general aim of this research is to investigate the condition of desertification in the study area by measuring the soil erosivity and determining their effective factors and critical areas for controlling the desertification. For doing that the IMDPA model has been used as this model is the result of integrated plan of indices and criterion of desertification in Iran. This model is the first one that has presented for quantification of effective indices of desertification in biomes of Iran. In this research, for investigating the condition of desertification and presenting its map the IMDPA model has been used and indices of water and wind erosion have been investigated. Land desertification was studied in map unit and under arid climatic condition. For criteria of water erosion, four indices (water erosion density and type, land use, vegetation density) were investigated and their data layers were created in GIS system environment. After that by laying each pair of data layers, the final score of water erosion criteria was obtained in each unit by equation 1. I= equation (1) 1≥ i ≥4 Where I: the final score of index of desertification potential based on water erosion criteria in each unit. Ii: the score of each index in each unit. For wind erosion criteria, their indices (appearance of erosion, density of non- alive cover and the numbers of dusty days) were measured by laying these digital layers, the final score of wind erosion criteria in each unit was obtained. I= equation (2) 1≥ i ≥3 I: final score of index of desertification potential based on wind erosion criteria in each unit Ii: the score of each index in each unit. Finally, the intensity map of desertification based on criteria of wind and water erosion was provided separately. 3-Discussion The obtained results show that surface cover has important role in desertification phenomenon from viewpoint of water erosion (vegetation index) and also from viewpoint of wind erosion criteria (density of non alive and vegetation). Some parts of this problem is due to the climatic condition of study area such as arid climate, less rainfall, high evapotranspiration, have been created sever condition. This point, following the intensitive drought in recent years, has been made the reduction of quantity and quality of vegetation. Moreover, railway, and other communicational roads (like Bafgh- chadormaloo) has been effective in degradation of vegetation. With respect to the obtained results, the important factors in erosion (wind and water) and desertification phenomena can be introduced as follows: • Intensive and erosive winds that leads to the moisture reduction, degradation of vegetation and finally detachment and transport of windy sediments. • Daring water erosion in sensitive formations in mountains of study area, fine sediments hare been scattered on the surface and finally these sediments can be moved by wind erosion. Moreover, inappropriate activities by some organizations (such as embankment dams) have been lead to severity of wind erosion. • Dominant of dry climate, less precipitation and high evapotranspiration, has been created hard conditions in the study area. This point following the sever droughts in recent years have increased the wind erosion in study area. • Release of agricultural lands, especially near the Shour river of Bahabad. • Constructions of many roads have also been created water and wind erosion. • Digging the deep wells for agricultural and industrial activities • Transgression to riversides and water ways and non scientific planting (especially around the Shour River in Bahabad). Overall, it can be stated that although the natural factors have been affected in desertification, but human parameters have also created desertification directly (land degradation) and indirectly (as a factor on intensification of degradation of natural factors). This point is also accordance with the results of sepehr (2005) in regarding to the effects of desertification in south of Fars province and Chamanpira (2006) for desertification in kouh- Dasht watershed. 4-Conclusion IMDPA model is integrated and complete method that has been calibrated with Iran conditions, then this method has less error. Moreover, existing the sufficient numbers of indices (coinciding with the area condition) has been made to obtain the good estimation from desertification condition. In the other hand, to access the results it is essential to investigate the other criterion of IMDPA model such as climate, geology, geomorphology, soil, vegetation, agriculture, water, social- economical problems and technology of city development. Finally and witch respect to the results of this research that surface cover is important factor in intensification of wind and water erosion, than it is essential to change the sight of people and users to natural resources. Therefore, considering the environmental problems and land logistic rules for each project in the study area is essential. Moreover, instruction the local communities and increasing the level of information and knowledge of decision makers and users can improved the sustainable development and lead to the control of desertification.

Extended abstract 1- Introduction Adoption ability to the environment has always been due to his human survival. Agricultural beginning and animal taming led to some changes between human and environment relations. In recent decades by human increasing invasion and more domination on environment, natural – equilibrium has been changed.Increasing and different environmental problems make us use scientific new methods that are not like to traditional decision makings. Nowadays, we need integrated and comprehensive approaches that are called sustainable development for controlling resources devastating. This concept should reflect a development by the least degradation bases on ecological potential and socio- economical needs which we call this Sustainable Development. The survey indicates that almost the whole of Boroujen Township has been affected by continuously changes and unreasonable exploitations on natural resources. Grassland degradation, soil erosion, water pollution are samples of these environmental changes. In addition on recognition of environmental degradation factors this study, will try to analyze doing actions and to estimate future development horizons in Boroujen town. Finally it will look for sustainable development by suitable ways to conserve the environment and its’ natural resources by using this approach. Our hypothesis is that, current development process, leads to an unsustainable environmental. 2- Methodology In the goals point of view, this research in an applied research and on the geographic point, it uses regional approach, in addition, we used descriptive- analytic way by systematic approach. For collecting data, we used library studies and field surveys and for descriptive statistical analysis we used excel and for mapping results, Arc GIS soft wares has been used, respectively. Also, for determining development impacts on environment degradation and finding developable and undevelopable areas, Degradation Model has been used. 3– Discussion Utilization of Using Degradation Model The study includes following stages: 1- Recognition of resources. 2-Determination of ecological vulnerability rate (Ei) 3- Devastating human activities listing and their intensive rate (AiLi) 4- Determination of physiological density (DPh) 5- Estimation of degradation coefficient (Dci) After doing above stages by using excel software, data has been commutated for all unites. 6- Determining degradation range and development degree for units by Using formula. 4– Conclusion There is no unit degradation rate less than 15/0 inside all of 26 working unites. There is one unit (7.7%) in Dourahan that sets between 0/15 and 0/62 and development level2. Degradation rang of 18 units (69.2%) in Dourahan, Gandoman, Emamzadeh Hamzeali and Boroujen out skirt set between 0/62 - 1/56 and development level 3. Degradation rang of 4 units (15.4%) in, Gandoman, and Boroujen out skirt set between 1/56-2/03 and development level 4. Degradation rang of 2 units (7.7%) in, Choghakhor, are more than 2/03 and they face development limits. The result indicate that more than 23% of studied area sets in conservative condition and more than 96% of the area in a medium degradation. The result shows that 34/77% working units are inside sensitive, 19/23% in vulnerability conditions and this results shows that our hypnosis is confirmed. Degradation range of 18 units are set between 0/62 - 1/56 and level 3. in other words, 69.2% of units have been sets inside developable conditions for suitable planning.

1-Introduction Rural development comes from different factors, one of them is desirable housing. Compiling a program in rural sustainable housing district needs identify and analysis of the dimensions and various components of sustainable housing and indicators of sustainable housing as a plan and essential tool for expression and sustainable of the different dimensions of social, economic and physical housingsustainable have a special place in rural house planning. The quantitative and qualitative status indicators show rural housing and improvement of house planning for a long term horizon. Therefore, identify the most important indicators andviewing of specify sustainable rural housing and assessment of indicators and its viewing in rural different centers is an issue thisstudy has raised to answer inits. Housing is something more than an alone physical shelter and all services and necessary public facilities, including for human welfare and mustprepared a lien somewhat long and confident for itsusers. Housing is like physical facilities unit or similar an economic commodity and high durability that also has social role or group and in addition to these, including to resolving of financial needs as status views and also is socio - economic condition of individuals. One of the issues that the attention had shifted toits housing and sustainable development and consistent with its human development.In such the strategy for use of resources and facilities, without destruction are considering. The important that has been consider in the documents of secondof meeting human settlements, importance of sustainable settlements and providing adequate housing is for people in thedevelopment process. Sustainable housing is housing that is economical appropriate, socially acceptable, Possible in terms of technical and physical and strong and consistent is with environment. The type of housing that the biological needs of current generations based on natural resources, energy efficiency meet and condition attractive neighborhoods and safe for attention to ecological issues, cultural and economic to require is sustainable housing. So the main question of this research is: Silakhor Sharghi rural district rural housing on base physical indicators, economic and social that in which are sustainabilitylevel? 2-Methodology The research method in the study is descriptive –analytical and also measurable. The goal of this research is an application research that has beencompound. For data collection two methods of library and documentary andalso was used the field method and direct observation. The main tool of this research is a questionnaire which its content validity finally has been approved and reform by the university professor and experts of foundation housing. The statistical society of the research is the heads of householdshousing units in rural area of silakhor Sharghi rural district Azna Township (1535people), thus access to the logical volume of the sample of the Cochran,s formula was used that volume of statiscal society in rural area of Silakhor Sharghi rural district, it was determined 310 the head of households to answer the questions of questionnaire. In the research for sampling in rurals were used class randomly method. So after determination the sample volume for data collection, first the study rurals were the number of residential units in class three of rural small, medium and large groups and 2 rural in each classas anindex was determined in each class. The explanations in this research housing sustainable was separated and evaluated to three of future in physical sustainable, economicsustainable and social sustainable. 3-Discussion Complex issues of sustainable development, requires an integrated set and together of recommender (indicators) is in the form of indicators. The indicators should be integrated in the set are made of recommender. The indicators are designed with the global experiences, internal experiences, and proportional to area conditions (localization indicators).To notice the main question of this study is means "Rural housing based on physical indicators, economic and social that in which are sustainable level"to survey this question was used the one-sample T-test in this form number 3 is considered as moderate sustainability and the data in each of the indicators are measured with the number. In the single-sample t-test showed equality assume H 0 is consistent of sustainability with the number of three (moderate sustainability)and essential H1 inequality with the moderate sustainability. In the case should be used to high and low values: 1-The average is greater than observed value, if "high" and "low" value is positive. 2-The average is smaller than observed value, if "high" and low value is negative. Therefor all indicators divided into three levels: unsustainable, relatively sustainable and sustainable and finally have been assessment the result of sustainability in three dimensions of physical, social and economic. 4-Conclusion Results show that most of rate in housing rural indicators unsustainability are in economic dimension. At the indicators of economic sustainability of rural housing, indicators of household financial ability, housing current expenses, housing steady expenses, use of financial support and livelihoods are in unsustainability conditions. The findings of this study show that 35% of indicators were in sustainable condition, 30% in somewhat sustainable and 35% in unsustainable conditions that in order to benefit from a healthy housing and sustainableprograms to improving indicators of unsustainable have been done that most of the economic dimension. The results also show that there are differences between rural housing sustainability dimensions way that rurals housing are in social dimension with sustainable conditions, in physical dimension in with somewhat sustainable condition and in economic dimension in unsustainable conditions.

Extended abstract 1- Introduction The political situation in the realm of international, regional, national and local is lead to instability in markets and tourist destinations and The security would affect tourism industry. Challenges such as war, terrorism, the growing insecurity, serious border controls, and enforcement serious regulations on visa issuance, the ideological conflict between nations and political instability and security are the factors preventing the development of tourism in some countries and will remain an important factor in the future. Despite such conditions, still we have slow growth in international tourism. But the tourism industry in some countries has suffered serious damage and has been a sharp decline in the share of tourism industry in these countries and increase the share of other countries. The purpose of this study was to answer the question that the political and security situation ruling in the region has had a negative impact on tourism industry growth in Middle East countries? Despite the undeniable influence of factors such as infrastructure, laws and regulations, foreign relations, tourism attractions, tourism industry marketing and much more on the dynamics of a country or region, political and security issues is the factor of Underdevelopment of tourism in these countries. Methodology To examine the relationship between tourism development and security and political situation in the Middle East region was used for descriptive - analytical method. According to World Tourism Organization, the Middle East including Jordan, United Arabic Emirates, Bahrain, Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Egypt and Yemen. According to scholars of political science, are Iran, Turkey, Israel, Algeria, Tunisia, Sudan and Morocco in the region. Sensitivity and effectiveness of the three political units (Turkey, Iran and Israel) in Middle East security concerns, we forced to use their tourism statistics and the low status of tourism in Libya, it was ignored. Discussion Tourism industry in the Middle East region has been serious affected by political and security conditions of international, regional and national. According to statistics of arrival tourists to the region from 1990 to 2009 there is a serious fluctuation in the arrival of tourists to the region. In this context, there are three points: - The first Persian Gulf War in 1990 and the second Persian Gulf War in 2003. - 11 September 2001 attacks. - Negative consequences of anti-terrorism strategy. After these three events occurred a dramatic change in the nationality of Entrance tourists to the region. For example, after September 11, we’re in the Middle East region saw a sharp decline in citizens traveling to Western countries. The decrease occurred in Middle East countries citizens traveling to Western countries. In general, the tourism industry countries such as Yemen, Iraq, Palestine and Iran have been greatly influenced by the political and security situation in the Middle East. And countries such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, only through religious tourism and passenger arrival of Muslim countries have had significant growth. Conclusion Search results on the relationship between political stability and security and tourism market in the region shows that Capabilities and abilities tourism industry in the Middle East has been affected by issues such as fragile security, political stability of the time eating, lack of effective policy making, centralized political structure, low level of regional cooperation, Maintenance of traditional boundaries and cultural conflicts in the Middle East. In between, the role of political instability and frequent phenomenon in recent years, such enforcement of terrorism and violent acts against international tourists has been very influential on regional tourism. Thus, political stability and security as an effective component in the development of international tourism has suffered many losses in recent years and with the improved security situation in the region, tourism will grow significantly. But the uncertainty of public and private sectors to invest in this economy - with the exception of Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iran in recent years, there is a significant achievement for the region in international markets.

Extended abstract 1- Introduction In recent decades, countries around the world have thought about using clean energy carriers as a solution for problems caused by excessive air and environmental pollution. Meanwhile, natural gas consumption has been increased due to less diffusion of carbon dioxide (compared to other fossil fuels) and more environmental sustainability it can cause; thus, demand for it has risen to the utmost degree. Iran owns 18% of world total gas reserves which makes it the second-biggest gas owner in the world. Thus, this country can play a prominent role in answering the increased demand for gas in the new atmosphere mentioned above and this can add to its geopolitical prominence. However, in spite of various potential benefits of natural gas for Iran, due to existing challenges, this country has not been able to use its opportunities. In the current research, we study Iran’s challenges and opportunities with respect to natural gas, from a geopolitical perspective. 2- Research Method This study has been conducted through using analytical descriptive method. Considering the nature of the studied subject, the needed data has been gathered by using library resources. 3- Discussion With regard to gas reserves, Iran is a very rich country, and by having 29.61 trillion cubic meters of exploitable gas reserves- which consists of 15.8% of proven gas reserves of the world- it has the second-largest gas reserves in the world after Russia. More than half of Iran’s gas reserves are located in common gas fields and more than two-thirds of them are placed in non-associated gas fields. Iran’s the most important non-associated gas fields are: South Pars, North Pars, Nar, Khangiran. Most of Iran’s gas reserves are in southern areas of the country, near Persian Gulf, and many of them are jointly owned by Iran and its neighboring countries. The largest of them is South Pars field that holds half of Iran’s gas reserves. Compared to its huge gas reserves and its rank in the world in that respect, Iran’s gas production is far less than expected. However, in recent years, an increase in gas production can be witnessed, the amount of which has been 131.2 billion cubic meters in 2009. This amount has been 4.4% of total amount of worldwide gas production and makes Iran the fourth-biggest producer of gas in the world. Concerning gas consumption, in 1993, Iran has consumed 26.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas which has risen to 131.7 billion cubic meters in 2009. These figures show that in 16 years, the amount of gas production in Iran has increased five times. So, we can see that Iran’s huge gas reserves pose their own challenges for the country, the most important of which is excessive consumption of natural gas. 4- Conclusion Iran has the second-largest gas reserves in the world. However, this country is facing significant challenges in this respect, the most important of which are excessive consumption of natural gas, common gas fields, amount of burnt gases, and sanctions encouraged by the US and the opposition of that country to the development of Iran’s gas sector. These sanctions have caused foreign companies not to invest in Iranian gas market, and thus, Iran’s natural gas sector has a lower development rate compared to other gas owners in the world. However, this sector can offer great opportunities for Iran and it can be a base for the development of the country. By exporting gas and changing it into materials with higher added value, Iran’s financial development can be accelerated. We should consider that gas is the main fuel used by Iranian petrochemical industries. Furthermore, transferring gas through pipelines to other countries and the resulting long-term contracts can improve Iran’s financial and political relationship with other countries. Through this, Iran can reach out to Asian and European regions and by providing gas for them, Iran can increase its national security. This can be achieved through objection of these countries to any kind of sanction or threat imposed against Iran. In other words, Iran’s geopolitical and strategic position, combined with its huge gas reserves, can help Iran reach out to international gas markets, which can increase Iran’s economic and political power. In addition to that, gas injection to Iran’s oil reservoirs can improve recycling and production of oil, the economic benefits of which are more than gas exportation at the moment. Furthermore, by adding to the number of gas-burning vehicles, Iran can reduce the amount of its imported petrol, which is considered as Iran’s Achilles’ heel in west’s view. Iran is facing de facto challenges in natural gas sector which have brought about considerable harms for the country. But its opportunities in this sector are still untapped and for realizing them, Iran should first face the challenges and then solve them.

Extended abstract 1- Introduction The increase in the global mean temperature during the twentieth century, in particular over the last 30 years, has provided a strong incentive for investigations of climate change. Climatic and weather hazards are amongst the most deadly and destructive natural disasters worldwide, resulting in loss of life, severe damage and large economic and societal losses (Nutter 1999; Su et al. 2006). Those natural and human effects are mainly triggered by shifts of frequency and intensity of extreme weather conditions related to temperature, precipitation, or other aspects of climate, rather than changes of mean climate (Katz and Brown 1992; Plummer et al. 1999). Heat or cold waves are characterized by the occurrence of a sequence of days with high or low values of temperature. These waves have significant impacts in terms of their socioeconomic effects on health, agriculture, forest fires, and the production and consumption of energy (SIAM, 2002; García-Herrera et al., 2005; Pereira et al., 2005; Trigo et al., 2005). The aim of this study is investigation and recognition of cold wave and spatiotemporal analysis over Iran. Methodology In order to recognition of cold waves in Iran the interpolated minimum daily data of Asfezari Data base during 1/1/1962 to 31/12/2004. The data matrix with dimension15706 7187 has been created that located on the columns pixels and on the rows are days. In this study, by 6 indices that calculate the intensity, duration and frequency of cold waves, the characterizations of the cold waves in Iran has been investigated. The indices were based on the 10, 5 and 1 percentiles. The indices calculated for any pixels over Iran. Then the significant of trends of indices investigated by nonparametric Mann-Kendal method. The slope of trend on the pixels that have trend in 95% confidence level calculated by linear method. The programs of the calculation has been written in Matlab software environment and the maps has been drawn by Surfer software. Table1. Cold wave indices summary. The T1 value is defined as the 10, 5, 1th percentile value of minimum temperature based on the entire data record(1/1/1962-31/12/2004) No Index name Definition Unit 1 10,5, 1P value The value of the 10, 5 and 1th percentile minimum temperature for each year °C 2 Number of runs The number of runs of consecutive days(1or more) over the T1 value per year Day 3 Average run length The average length of a run of consecutive days over the T1 value per year Day 4 Maximum run length The longest run of consecutive days over the T1value per year Day 5 Minimum temperature index The mean of the warmest three consecutive minimum temperatures per year °C 6 Cold Spell Duration Index Annual count of days with at least 6 consecutive days when Minimum temperature<10th percentile of the 1971-2000 period Day Discussion The results of nonparametric Mann-Kendal test on the whole indices showed that the frequency of cold waves is decreasing during the study period over the more extent of the area of Iran. Not only the frequency of cold waves has been decreased but also the intensity and duration of cold waves has been decreased during the study period. The decreasing value of the frequency of cold waves has been observed on the low elevation, plains and flats. On the high elevation the trend of cold waves is positive but the extent percent over Iran is very small. Conclusion The environment and ecosystems adapted themselves with the normal and long term circumstances and the anomalies and turbulence occurrence result in unpleasant consequences. The decreasing trend of more durable cold waves is higher than low durable cold waves. The decreasing of occurrence, duration and intensity of cold waves results in melting of snow cover over the high elevation, decreasing the diurnal temperature range, increasing the evaporation and increasing the plants and animals diseases.

Extended abstract 1- Introduction One of the most well-known strategies for rural development, tourism and related opportunities are in the field of entrepreneurship. Identification of opportunity is one of the key factors in the survival and development Villages Like’s cities are full of new and undetected opportunities that not discover and exploit these opportunities and creating new businesses and competitiveness basis; it cans be Significant economic benefits for the villagers. Dimensions in order to identify environmental, social and economic potential context in each area, are an important issue to be considered in any assessment that has significant effect on the success of planning. Therefore adopt a systematic approach to social issues, economic and environmental planning will be critical. In this alienated explaining the current situation of rural in terms of population, infrastructure attractions a presence of ranging from natural and artificial are of special importance. Scientific studies on a list of indicators of social, economic, environmental and ecological potential of entrepreneurship in the tourism sector in rural areas in line with the pillars of entrepreneurship development. Most, research efforts in this regard, it has been a significant impact on the creation of entrepreneurial opportunities in the tourism sector with the use of the else studies in this filed and also voting of specialists and experts through the Delphi technique method to provide rural tourism sector. 2 - Research Methodology With regard to the subject goals the research method is descriptive and casual analysis foundation in the library studies and record subject to review study based on indicators related obtain relevant in the indicators of impact in creating of entrepreneurial opportunities in the tourism sector of the study and written document from Delphi technique was used in the area. The software then uses factor analysis and classification was reduced variable R factors obtain in this way since they were not homogeneous therefore confirmatory factor analysis was used and the structural equation model using the Lisrel software to measure and verify its validity was assessed and approved. 3 - Discussion To obtain the effective indices in the creation of entrepreneurial opportunities in the tourism sector of the study this questionnaire was designed this work in which the question was posed with this title: What in your view the creation of entrepreneurial opportunities in the tourism sector are effective? Experts were asked their opinions freely the comments in the 2nd questionnaire after which the categories were summed and again for the professional consensus in this area was it should be noted that in the first stage 120 questionnaires form post e-mail (E-mail) and 40 questionnaires were manually placed at the disposal of specialists and experts from the 56 questionnaires were completed and expert and scholar of geography, tourism, entrepreneurship, management, economics, sociology, declared their own opinions.In the present study for the summary indices of R-type factor analysis with Principal component method is used 48 indicators used to 9 operating through varimax rotation has been reduced. So Eigenvalue greater than 1 and 9 so that the operating pebbles figure confirmed these nine factors. One of the main steps in factor analysis is the name given to the opinions of different experts are of There was some heterogeneity in the operating variables, so named factors was not possible to resolve the problem of structural equations was used This study examined variables in the six operating principles and the study was summarized by After developing a conceptual model for validation of structural equation models by entering data into the desired end, the model was examined Using indicators such as root mean square residual goodness of fit index, comparative fitness. .. and fit was evaluated. after identifying the variables they validate, the linear regression to determine the ci contribution of each of the factors influencing entrepreneurial opportunities were used to perform this operation, the coefficient Ci expert opinions through techniques Tapsis was calculated, then the coefficient indices to the numerical factor was obtained After this number was calculated for all factors, then all the factors together and total number of factors were obtained for all The calculated data were transferred to SPSS software, The total number of factors as the dependent variable and each of the socioeconomic factors, cultural, educational and. .. Were considered as independent variables, And thereby share any of the factors identified in the creation of entrepreneurial opportunities. With regard to the statistics that Sig <0.05 for test assuming equal factor in the creation of entrepreneurial opportunities is achieved because the number was estimated less than 5% of the factors considered to influence significant differences with each other and 95 percent could be concluded that the compared to the same factors of influence are different. The standardized coefficients show that the political factor is the highest since 0.321 percent per unit change in this variable will change in the creation of entrepreneurial opportunities. On the basis of political factors - legal, operating infrastructure, operating environment, operating convention attractions, economic factors - social and cultural factors in creating opportunities for entrepreneurship education in order to be effective. 4– Conclusion Identify affecting factors in creating entrepreneurial opportunities in the tourism sector on tourism development in rural areas would have different effects. Including identification and evaluation of various aspects of tourism can be a new way forward, researchers, planners, politicians and decision makers will be development and progress of less developed areas and poor basic steps to take. Considering the factors affecting the creation of entrepreneurial opportunities with Iranian scholars and experts in various fields has been extracted These factors can be tested in rural areas that have tourist attraction that is the status of entrepreneurship in these areas revealed It could be that entrepreneurs in the field of entrepreneurship in rural areas to help the tourism sector.