نشریه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی
سال بیست و پنجم شماره 3 (پیاپی 55، پاییز 1393)

The city of Tabriz is one of the four large city of Iran and the largest inhabitation center in northwest of Iran. This city is located on a large and active tectonic fault which enlongate from north Anatolian fault system-located in Turkey- to the Alborz mountains in Iran. The regions of northwest Iran, eastern Turkey and Caucasus are one of the most complex regions of the Arabia – Eurasia collision. The seismicity of this region is due Arabia-Eurasia plates convergence. The results of convergence indicated by moderate to large magnitude earthquakes. So that, the cities of this region (as Tabriz) destroyed repeatedly by large magnitude earthquakes. Right lateral strike-slip motions along the North Tabriz fault have given rise to strong earthquakes, which threaten the city of Tabriz with its population of more than 1.5 millon.This research try while review of seismicity and seimotectonic situation, evaluate active tectonic by geomorphic indexs in Varkesh-chai, Gomanab-chai and Nahand-chai and remember city extension in limites of earthquake fault. Area of the study region is 1258 Km2 and is located northeast of Ormieh lake and north of Tabriz city. North Tabriz Fault (NTF) pass from north of Tabriz city. 2-

In this research, seismotectonic characteristics the study area analyzed by historical and seismography data from Institute of Geophysics Tehran University. We analyzed six geomorphic indices for evaluating of active tectonic in the study area. Indices used include: the stream- gradient index (SL), drainage basin asymmetry (Af), Ratio of valley – floor with to vally height (Vf), drainage basin shape ratio (Bs), topographic Symmetry Factor (T) and stream sinusity(S). We the computed a single index (Iat) from the six indices to characterize relative active tectonics. Iat is cbtained by the average of the different classes of geomorphic indices (S/n) and divided into four classes from relatively low to highest tectonic activity. 3-

Studies of region seismicity indicated that North Tabriz Fault (NTF) is a NW-SE trending strike – slip fault. Rate of right lateral slip determined 7±1 mm/yr for the North Tabriz Fault.This value is consistent with earthquakes of magnitude 7-7.3 and recurrence times of 250-300 yr. This rates conform to historical seismicity of the North Tabriz Fault in 858, 1024, 1273,1304,1641,1721,1780 and 1786. This conditions indicating the potential for a significant earthquake on the NTF in the next 50 yr.Map of earthquake focal distribution present relation earthquakes locations with active faults. This map shows that dense clusters are located on both ends of the North Tabriz Fault. There is another cluster near the city of Tabriz. The depth of earthquakes from the surface is almost 20 Km in the seismotectonics.The results of geomorphic indices show active tectonic faulting in the study drainage basins (Varkesh-chai, Gomanab-chai and Nahand-chai). One of the indices is Asymmetic factor (AF). This indexcan be used to evaluate tectonic tilting at the scale of drainage basin. Asymmetic factor shows that Nahand-chai is classified in class 1(active tectonic), Varkesh-chai and Gomanab-chai are located in class 2 (moderate). Topographic Symmetry Factor (T) indicates asymmetry of Nahand-chai is more than another rivers.Because index values are near 1, Therefore drainage basins of the study area are active, based up on values topographic Symmetry Factor. Another index sensitive to tectonic uplift is the valley floor width to vally height ratio. Calculation of ratio of valley floor width to vally height (Vf) is done at a distance 1 km upstream from mountain front. This index shows valleys with a wide fioor relative to the height of valley walls (U shape) in the study area. Therefore the study drainage basins are classified in class 3(low active).An other index for studing active tectonic is basin shape index. Relatively, young drainage badins in tectonically active area tend to be elongated in shape.Based upon index of drainage basin shape (Bs), Nahand-chai has longer shape than north Tabriz drainage basins. Varkesh-chai and Gomanab-chai are located in class3. The results of stream sinusity shows that the study drainage basins don’t reach to equilibrium. They are active based upon stream sinusity.We calculated SL index along the study rivers using a digital elevation model and GIS, and computed its average value for each basin. Values of stream length- gradient index (SL) differentiantes along the study rivers. So that, average Value SL index is high in the nahand-chai, but in Varkesh-chai and Gomanab-chai are moderate. Iat indicates high tectonic activity (Class 2) in the study drainage basins. Index of relative active tectonic (Iat) obtained in the study area, based values of stream- gradient index (SL), drainage basin asymmetry (Af), Ratio of valley – floor with to vally height (Vf), drainage basin shape ratio (Bs), topographic Symmetry Factor (T) and stream sinusity (S). 4-Conclutions: Seismcity and seismotectonic conditions and analyses of geomorphic indices in the north Tabriz drainage basins are indicating that Tabriz city is located in hazardous region. Clusring of strong earthquakes along active faults is an additional factor of seismic hazard characteristic of the considered area. Historical evidence indicate that there were several earthquake on the North Tabriz Fault. The results of geomorphic indices show that the study area is classified in class 2 (high active tectonic).This problem must to pay attent in urban planning and development.Now that, Tabriz city sprawl is enlongating toward slopes of Onebneali heights (location of fault). In recently decades increase buildings and build towers is disturbed stability of this region.This conditions increased instability and earthquake hazards. Besides there are buildings at city margins where located along of Onebneali heights (location of fault)and build by undesirable material.These houses can´t resist against moderate magnitude earthquakes.This conditions increase earthquake hazards intensely in this region.

Energy is one of the important factors in the development of human society. On the other hand evidence, indicates the fact that the biggest cause of environmental pollution and destruction at between man-made factors, is production, conversion and consumption types of fossil energy. Renewable energy is one of strategies that proposed in recently years to avoid such problems. Development of renewable energy has great economic and social benefits. Such as the limited of fossil fuels for energy supply and environmental and social costs are lower. According to the statistics of each kilowatt hour of electricity produced from renewable resources and wind power, respectively the release of approximately 0.7 and 1 kg CO2 compared with fossil fuel thermal power plants to be prevented. On the other hand, the decentralized power production capabilities of the renewable energy, provided opportunities for improvement and development of remote and rural areas, and enhance social and economic structure of rural areas and prevent their migration to the cities. Wind energy is one of these approaches that have been considered in recent years. Therefore, the largest electricity generation capacity in renewable energy in Europe 2008 belongs to the wind energy (43 %). Iran has very windy areas, but the amount of electricity generation from wind power in compared to other energy sources is very low. Therefore, the amount in 1384 was about 70 GW/h, i.e. 0.04 percent of total electricity generated in the country. In contrast, many industrialized countries, had more attention to this sources, so that 86% the total capacity of wind power plants located in 10 countries.Many researchers with considering only the potential of wind had many studies on the prone areas, for construction of wind power plants. But it should be noted that environmental issues are often complex and multidimensional and there are many stakeholders with a lot of goals and priorities. Therefore developing a system that can meet the needs of all groups with regard to all criteria is essential. As regards the GIS in combination with multi-criteria decision-making methods has many capabilities in this field, many researchers have used to analyze the suitability of lands. The aim of this research is assessing the land suitability for construction wind farms with MCDM and GIS. Material & MethodsStudy Area: The study area of about 45481km2 is located in the East Azerbaijan of the northwest of Iran. It lies between latitudes 36o 45' and 39o 26' N, and stretches between longitudes 45o 5' to 48o 22' E. Data: There are many factors and criteria for locating wind farms. In this study, According to experts and study available resources and local conditions the following criteria were considered including Wind Speed (m/s), Distance to fault (m), Topography (slope & altitude), Distance to transmission lines, Distance to rural & city, Distance to airport, Distance to lake & rivers and Land use. All the data used maps prepared in 1: 25000 scale map and Aster satellite image for land use map were used.

After collecting all data, for weighting and combining layers, the AHP and fuzzy logic methods were used. The AHP method that presented by Saaty (1980) has been used to obtain the optimal level. In this method for pairwise comparison of alternatives and criterias, the values proposed by Saaty was used. Then to obtain the final weight, relative weights were combined using special vector method. In this study, the overall inconsistency index was 0.0245, indicating the appropriate weights are assigned to the criteria and alternatives. Fuzzy sets have been use for classifying objects and phenomena that do not have the exact boundaries. In this method, the degree of membership in the interval [0, 1] be express. Which 0 represent non membership and 1 represent full membership of a set. In this method for fuzzifying the wind potential, distance from cities, rural, lake, river, fault, airport and for fuzzifying the slope and height layers, respectively we used large and small fuzzy membership. In addition, for fuzzifying the communication lines layer the trapezoid fuzzy membership function was used. Then the convex combination method was used for combining the fuzzy layers. After obtaining results of both methods, the results to the four classes perfectly suitable (0.8-1), relatively suitable (0.6-0.8), relatively unsuitable (0.4-0.6), and perfectly unsuitable (0-0.4) was classified.

Due to the wind turbines have been a lot of noise and also negative environmental and social impacts, locate them should be based on certain principles and standards, to compensating these problems in addition to increase profits and reduce capital costs. In this study for determining suitable areas for wind power plants, 12 parameters that are the most influential factors were used. Note that economical, environmental and social cultural criteria respectively with weight 0.571, 0.286 and 0.143 influenced the output map. According to the weights obtained from pair wise comparisons, in the economic criteria the wind speed, altitude and in the environmental criteria distance from lakes, land use and in the social cultural criteria distance from cities and rurals respectively have 77 and 86 percent of the total weights that allocated to the criteria. In the result map of fuzzy and AHP, respectively appropriate regions located around the Sahand station, southwest of Tabriz, Bostan Abad and Sahand station. The main reason for been suitable those stations, having good conditions of the economic criteria and particularly wind potential. Due to having wind speed less than threshold Marage, Miyaneh, Julfa, Marand and Bonab stations are in constraint area and they are not suitable for construction of wind farms. From total area, in AHP and fuzzy model respectively, 11.26 and 1375.2 km2 are in the perfectly suitable class. For comparison, and proper conclusion, the correlation matrix between fuzzy and AHP methods with most layers was calculated. Results of both methods were similar in most layers (Correlation between the two methods was 98.952%) and only difference between the wind speed and slop layers is noticeable. In these layers, the correlation coefficient of fuzzy logic is more than the AHP. This is because accurate modeling of uncertainties in the data and expert knowledge (Definition of class boundaries) by fuzzy logic.

Various factors and criteria used for wind farms location selection. In this study, GIS based MCDM methods were used for land suitability assessing. Energy planners may use this analysis to determine energy production, area required and avoidance of unsuitable sites. In this study, for the first time large and small fuzzy membership functions was used for fuzzifying the layers in the issue. The results indicate the ability of fuzzy logic for integration high volume data set to controllable variables. And also the results indicate that in researched problem, the fuzzy logic has relative priority than AHP and wind speed potential, height, lakes, land use, distance from cities and rural are most important factors in determining suitable area for wind farms.

Although the American Geomorphologists insist that geomorphology is started by William Morris Davis (1850-1934), but it has a much longer history. The philosophers of ancient Greece and Rome pay attention to the formation of mountain ranges and landscapes of the Earth's surface in their writings and presented ideas in this field. In the centuries BC Herodotus, Aristotle, Thales, Xenophanes and so many other had given theories about the origins of valleys, folding and erosion and after years, Avicenna's the eminent Iranian scientist (A.D. 980-1037) given valuable theory in the subject of earth science and geomorphology, that many of those has been confirmed at during the revolution of modern science in 18 century. 2-

In this paper, we first introduce the writings of Avicenna's in landform concepts, and then we emphasized on the most important his writings that have accordance with the uniformitarianism theory and describe the history of this theory in the modern science and pay attention to its roots in the writings of Avicenna. The methodology of this paper is Descriptive – analytical and moreover the use of various books and articles, Tabieyat alshfa book of Ibn Sina translated from the Arabic to the Persian. Then extract the Earth Sciences and Geomorphology theories of this great scientist Iranian and then analyzed with the scientific theories of the new century. 3–

This study investigates the role of Avicenna in Landform knowledge and tries to explain uniformitarianism roots in his publications. Uniormitarianism, the simple notion that: "the present is the key to the past ", is commonly linked to the writings of James Hutton but we found out a clear similarity between Hutton ideas with Avicenna notions. However Hutton's writings were cumbrous same as earlier scientists, Mikhail Lomonosov (1711-1765), Jean-Etienne Guttard(1715-1786), and Nicholas Desmarest (1725-1815), but the essence of his message, notably his theory of Earth history that find " no vestige of a begging-no prospect of an end" (Hutton, 1788), was rescued and clarified by john Playfair(1748-1819). This message has been described with Avicenna that "some mountains are disintegrated and falling and some others are eroded by flowing waters, then all mountains are rejuvenated………finally the form of mountains is changed but we can’t record an exact time for these evolutions"(Avecina,1404, 210). "Exact time..." is referred to "no vestige of ……" which has been recognized by Hutton. Avicenna has described the rock cycle, differential erosion, form and processes based on contemporary sediments and materials, the aim that historical geomorphologists are followed in their investigations. He also believed the evolution of landforms developing gradually, the concept has been presented by john playfair as a gradualism evolution. 

The results indicate that Ibn Sina has theories in the geomorphological issues. He believed that most of the lands have been under the water layer in the past and the sediment in this water is layered and gradually deposits beneath the waters, during a long time. Then, due to tectonic movements the sea had regressed and the remaining sediments turned to stone during the rock formation process and he suggest that the lands of ancient Egypt and Najaf are the example of this case and tell that those lands were under the sea in the past. Ibn Sina attributed the get height of mountains to the internal and external factors. He believe that the get height of mountains is affected by tectonic process and earthquake and also product the carvings due to winds and flooding in the remnant sediments from the sea. Also Ibn Sina with likens the mountains to the loss of people and communities refers to the Palimpsest theory. Moreover, Ibn Sina believes that any object is or in a state of vibration and movement or in a state of quiet and equilibrium and the movement of the all object is for achieve the equilibrium. He named the time to reach this equilibrium as relaxation time. According to the Avicenna's writings and thoughts, can understand that he did not believe in absolute to the uniformitarianism and he has been the uniformity and catastrophe viewpoints together and his writings about the natural factors refer to both sudden and gradual changes that attributed these changes to different environmental conditions. Hi believe that Different forms in the surface of land affected by the changes that occur in the earth system, do not act the same and may its practice be different from the method their forming.

The coastal areas are always physically and ecologically changing that depends to natural and human factors. Natural factors of coastline changes are evaluated through three

short term changes including the effects of increasing and decreasing of flow; long term changes including climate variation, temporal storms and waves; and random changes including natural unexpected events. These happened changes would effect on coastline changes and coastal areas, and in future would negatively effect on human and human activities and sea communications. Monitoring of coastal areas is an important fact in steady development and environment maintenance. To monitor a coastal area, coastline extraction in various times is an essential task. Coastline is one of the most important linear features on the Earth’s surface showing a dynamic nature. Coastlines are introduced as one of the most important geographical features on the Earth’s surface by International Geographical Data Committee (IGDC), geographically are the intersection of coastal area and the sea water. Accordingly, it is important to produce coastline map and to determine the changes for a secure shipping, resource management, environment maintenance, planning and coastal steady development. Case Study Dair is the one town of Bushehr province in southern Iran and the Persian Gulf coast area. Faults, fractures range of mountains and sea shells on the tracks, show the lowing sea level, the movements of the earth and the organic material being buried with lime flowers at the bottom of the sea.

Remote sensing is one of the best and most reliable methods in monitoring and management of environment and resources. Various methods have been created to extract coastline from satellite images. Since the reflection of water in IR bands are almost Zero and most of vegetation have a bigger reflection versus water, coastline can be extracted from even one band of the image. This extraction can be achieved from Thresholding on one IR band of TM and ETM+ images. Thus, in this study we have used satellite images of TM, ETM and ETM+ Landsat in the years 1987, 2000 and 2006 to monitor the coastline changes of Dair town. Based on results from amplifying methods, contrast enhancement by saturated linear expansion method is more effective in image amplifying, and band 5 is also effective than band 7 in border separation; but since this method only covers the spectral amplifying, in order to extract a distinct border between water and land, it was used along other completing methods, one common of them is temporal amplifying. Thus, various filtering methods were used that edge detection filter on images of band 5 showed better results versus the others. Because the mentioned filter has less effect on existing features in image, extraction of water-land border and even the flat wet lands and water, especially for band 5, was more convenient.

In this paper, using temporal detection of band 5 of Landsat satellite images in 1987, 2000 and 2006, coastline changes of Dair town were extracted. To investigate and determine the spatial changes of coastline, spatial changes from images of 1987, 2000 and 2006 in 50 points with equal distances of 3000 m were measured. Spatial changes of coastline in these points are in such a way that from 1987 to 2000 and 2000 to 2006, the area has encountered a raise in sea level toward the land and a decrease of the area. Minimum and maximum values of spatial change of coastline during 1987 and 2000 are 17 and 2829 m, respectively. Spatial changes of coastline during 2000 and 2006 have been lessened versus the former period, that minimum and maximum values of changes are 2 and 800 m, respectively. Average spatial coastline changes in first and second periods are obtained 502 and 138 m respectively.

Oxygen isotope records in archives of lake sediments are as common tools to reconstruct palaeoenvironments. In the paper we discuss the records in the Lakes Zeribar, Mirabad, Bakhtegan, and Parishan to investigate Iran climatic conditions in little ice age. Bet ween 1350 to 1850 years ago, synchronized with little ice age, some alterations can be observed in the amounts of oxygen isotope in these lakes. On the lakes Zeribar and Mirabad the amounts of oxygen isotope (O∂ 18) have extended toward more positive values. At the same time the values in lakes Parishan and Bakhtegan have extended toward more negative values. The isotope records indicate that climatic coditions of Zeribar and Mirabad was drier than present conditions. Isotope records also indicate that lakes Parishan and Bakhtegan experienced cooler and wetter conditions than those of the present days in the age. The hetrogeny of the events in isotope records represents atmospheric circular pattern variations in that age on the Iran. The evidence indicates that the event may be accompanied by the movements of westerlies to the far southern latitudes and its subsequent development and strengthening of their activities on the regions.

Since long ago, the process of fault genes in the earth’s crust is considered as a complex factor in the research performance within the earth at different scales. In simple terms, faults are created due to the transformation in the layers of earth crust and creating local tensions and rapture in the rocks (Wellman, 1978). One of the most original historic faults is the vibration parallel to rapture plate and happening hazards such as creating ability of seismicity in the region. This vibration can be either slow or sudden. Sudden vibrations are often the factor of creating earthquake which depends on the characteristic and dynamics of fault. Therefore, to perceive the physic of these faults it is necessary for the implementation of methods to predict earthquakes. The fault networks and earthquake follows a series of natural non-linear system and driving threshold system (Ferguson et al., 1996. Kay, C et al., 1961, White et al, 1965). The numerical simulation is used to predict how the faults perform (Ergodicity). Ergo in Greek means work or energy and Hodos means path (Pain, 1985). In simple terms, Ergodicity consist of evolutionary and historical changes of phenomenon so that changes can be classified in different phases. The most important features of this classification are based on the uniform average change level during each session of the development (Vernott et al, 2006). In 1993, for the first time Ergodic idea were formulated in a non-linear driving systems (natural fault) by fluctuation metric Thriumalai-Mountain (TM). According to the theory of metric (TM) Ferguson et al, on the bases of available observation assessed the function of several natural fault system (California between 1932 and 2004 in the region of 32 to 40 degree latitude and -115 to -125 degree longitude, Iberian Peninsula and North west America at 35 degree latitude and 45 degree North and between longitude of 5 degree to -15 degree and East Canada at 42 degree to 51 degree latitude and -60 degree to -85 degree longitude) using the data from Southern California Earthquake Center (SCES) and Northern California Seismic Network (NCSN). The result obtained examined the natural fault system for long period of time having magnitude M 4 Ergodic and large seismic events that can directly remove the system from ergodicity identified that this very large event eliminates the system out of balance for a time period and after that a quasi-equilibrium state is created. This case is called as outstanding balance or oscillatory mode (Ferguson et al, 2003). This article aims to study the Ergodicity threshold in the fault system of Yazd Province and distinguish the presence of marked equilibrium according to the characteristics of earthquake process which is the function of extent and data accuracy and seismology catalogs. Of course, testing the recent hypothesis of Ergodic method used is known as the Thirumalai-Mountain (TM) metric method.

With this method, the ability to release energy by the regional fault is assessed by using fluctuation metric (TM) Thirumalai-Mountain method according to the number of seismic events with specific or greater magnitude for a time period, quantitative and their influence on the Ergodic features occurred in the region under investigation. Fluctuation Metric mentioned by Thirumalai-Mountain (TM) is the relationship shown in equation 1, (Thirumalai-Mountain, 1993) and (Homes et al, 1996). Eq. 1.

In this study, for understanding the behavior of fault of Yazd Province (faults of Dehshir, Anar, Poshtebadam and ShehrBabak, …) and assessing the ability of seismicity based on evidence or statistical distribution of events during a specified time period the following information were used from Geophysic institute and International Institute for Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) and Russian Institute of Seismology Center (ISC). Therefore, from the scope and specification of faults catalogs were prepared where each one is used for review and Ergodic probability in the region based on the number of events that occurred in a time period with specific or greater magnitude m 2, m 3. The region was analyzed with fault quantitative (temporal – spatial) and assessed by fluctuation metric (TM) Thirumalai-Mountain method. Initially by catalog and Gutenberg-Richter law the regions seismic parameter value (a, b) and N(t) value per year was calculated. Later, after using the produced catalog, the diagram of number of events per year based on different magnitude was prepared and inverse TM value was calculated. To calculate the average time of faults, equation (2) is used by selecting the increasing intervals of a year for integration and substituting the size of event N(t) per year, the average time period for specific magnitude M m were obtained respectively. Then the same mean was calculated in the whole system using equation (3) which is related to the average time period for the duration. Accordingly, the values calculated by the mentioned formula is substituted in equation (1) and (TM) metric value and its inverse were calculated for each year and its graph was drawn based on duration of time period for magnitude of m 2, m 3. Consequently, based on graphs Ergodic probability and prediction of probable earthquake magnitude in the region were considered. In order to calculate the seismic parameters (a, b) in Yazd Province the Gutenberg-Richter law were used. Therefore, for radical range of 200 kilometers from the central location of the Province (31.896, 54.368) is used from the information and specification of earthquake catalog with specific magnitude (m 3, m 2). Therefore, the events were classified according to the magnitude and then frequency and cumulative frequency of each category were calculated. another equation is used to obtain the parameters of earthquake (a, b) of Yazd region with specific magnitude m 2 and m 3 and time period 1927 to 2010. With the desired parameters of the seismic region the N(t) value for the event per year can be obtained and its value can be substituted instead of Et(t) in equation (2). Conclusion With regard to the studies done by Thirumalai-Mountain metric method to identify and define the existence of Ergodic probability in the fault system of the region (Dehshir, Anar, Poshte Badam, ShahrBabak and Shirkooh) and taking advantage from the specification and seismic data of Dehshir fault by using full spatial range from the coordinate range of Dehshir fault, it was found that the structural behavior of this fault is Ergodic for the magnitude m 2 in 1996 to 2001 and 2002 to 2005 and 2006 to 2010 and the magnitude m 3 for the whole period from 1996 to 2010. It is not Ergodic due to the lack of coherence time for magnitude greater than M 4.

Changing climate and increasing temperature is considered as one of the important bio-environmental problems for the human being which has dedicated various studies to itself during the recent years. Increasing the average temperature of the earth and its changes is an indication of the climate changes which has been considered in all the theories of climate change.(Ibrahimi & Colleagues, 1384: 5). Studying the temperature changes and its role in the world heating due to freeing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has been the dominant field of climate studies during the recent decades. Almost all of these studies in regional and world criteria approve increasing temperature during the past century. Even though this increase has not been similar in all the points and negative procedures have also been reported in some areas (Movahedi & Colleagues, 1384:15). In this regard, the role of maximum temperatures is evident in increasing evaporation and respiration, decreasing the surface and underground waters, development of types of diseases, firing forests, the process of melting glacials and creating drought and lack of water (low raining)in other areas (Husseini, 1388: 3). 1- Materials and Methods In the direction of performing this research, the statistics for the average of maximum temperature of 8 synoptic stations and 8 climatology stations with appropriate distribution in the province and 4 synoptic stations and also 1 climatology station for suitable coverage and for more accuracy of the calculations out of the province were used (Figure 1). In the studies for climate change, the long term statistical period is considered for ensuring from the authenticity of the obtained findings. For this purpose, the 50-year statistical period was determined in this research during the years 1961-2010. At first, the data were measured by the tests of Anderson – Darling and Ryan – Joiner and after making sure of their abnormality, the non-parametrical test of Mann- Kendall was selected for calculating and analysis of the trend. Also the tests of Chi-Square and Kolmogorov- Smironov were used for making sure of harmonious data. Following that, the data were arranged in a matrix with the dimensions of 21 x 600 and they were changed to the pixel data with the dimensions of 5x 5 km through programming in Software of Surfer and by the method of Kriging in station data. Then they were set in a matrix with the dimensions of 4260 x 600 and by Matlab Software monthly trend of each pixel was calculated 95 % in a significant level using Mann- Kendall Test and their regionalization was performed by ArcGis Software. 

The inferred results from studying the procedure make it clear that during January the whole province consists of the region without any trend and no trend has been observed in any one of the stations under study. During February, only Isfahan station had an increasing trend and other locations of the province lack the trend. With beginning of March, the locality for the region of increasing procedure has been transferred to the north of the province and it covers the stations of Badrud – Natanz and Kashan, and each year it increased 0.023 Centigrade Degrees. Other locations of the province still has no trend. During April and with warming weather, the region for the increasing procedure reaches to its climax throughout the year to the extent that it covers 52.2 % (2225 cells) or in other words half of the province area and it is being increased with the rate of 0.044 Centigrade Degrees per year. After April, the area of the regions which had increase in maximum temperature decreased and it reaches to 5.1 % in June from 52.5 % in April. During May, the increasing trend is transferred to south of the province and only a small part of northern areas in the province consist of the increasing trend region. With beginning of June, decreasing trends also are manifested in the province so that reduction in the rate of 0.005 Centigrade Degrees per year and 0.25 Centigrade Degrees during the past 50 years has occurred. After that from July to October, the extent of the increasing trend region is added in a manner that during the past 50 years, 0.35 % Centigrade Degree increase in July reaches to 0.55 % Centigrade Degree increase in October. During July, the decreasing trend region is reduced and it is limited to the western sides of the province. In September and coincident with the end of Summer, the regions with trend, are limited to the north west and west of the province. During this month, increasing trend has occurred in north and south-west of the province and decreasing trend has occurred in the western areas of the province consisting Meimeh Station. In this month the temperature has increased in the rate of 0.15 Degrees during the past half century (0.003 Degrees per year). During October and with beginning of Autumn, the decreasing trend region is reduced and it is limited to the Natanz station and increasing trends are more manifested so that it is increased 0.011 Centigrade Degrees per year. In November increasing trend region has been reduced very much and it is limited to Najaf Abad station at south-west of the province and north of Badrud – Natanz station. During December, the only region with trend in province is decreasing trend region and it is only observable at Natanz station. With consideration of the befitted line gradient December has had -0.001 Centigrade Degrees per year. 

The inferred results from studies for the procedure of average of maximum temperature at Isfahan Province make clear in this research that during the cold months of the year no tangible trend is observed in most of the areas at Isfahan Province and increasing or decreasing trends also have dedicated limited levels to themselves in a manner, so that in January there is no trend in the said parameter at the province and the whole of its area includes the region without trend. These findings are in agreement with the obtained results from the research of Movahedi & Colleagues, (19:1384) for Marun basin. With warming weather, increasing and decreasing trends are also divulged in a manner so that only increasing trends are observed during the Spring, but with the beginning of Summer, the decreasing trends are also divulged in the province. With consideration of the performed studies, the highest percent of the area for increasing trend region in April with 52.2 % of the province area consists of 2225 pixels, and the highest percent of negative trend region is considerable with 13.1 % of the province area and 559 pixels in June. It shall be mentioned that April with 2.2 Centigrade Degrees has the highest increase rate and June with -.25 Centigrade Degrees has the highest decrease rate during the recent half century. In general, no trend exists in most of the months.

In recent years the phenomenon of climate change and global warming, the gradual increase in average temperature in most parts of the earth, cause drastic changes in the amount and type of precipitation in different regions of the world. In many parts of the world, solid precipitation as rain instead of snow and the amount of snow has fallen and this position has caused changes in the hydrological system. Because of the importance of the issue, many studies have been conducted in Iran and the world in this regard. Among the studies can be Lehning and et al (2002) in Switzerland, Laternser and Schneebeli (2003) in the Swiss Alps, and Huntington (2004) in England, Cabe and Clark (2005) in US, noted. Several studies in the snow zone in relation to monitoring has been conducted. Most of these studies are based on remote sensing and statistical methods are rarely used. Such studies can be Dini and et al (1385) stuck in the snow levels in Central Alborz, Hosseini and Porhmmat (1386), in the catchment Taleghan, Matkan and et al (1387) in Karaj Dam catchment and Latyan, ghorbanizadeh and et al (1388), in doses, Rasouli and Adhami (1386) cited. In this study, given the lack of statistical studies in the context of changes in snow in Iran, is trying to change in the North West of Iran, have been studied and the average increase in temperature fluctuations in the snow in the North West of Iran, will be assessed. 

Data used in this study, data include daily rainfall and average annual snowfall of 15 synoptic stations in the North West of Iran. Method used in this study, the relative time series analysis of annual snowfall, which is equivalent to the following: (1), (2), (3), (4)In Equation 2, the relative reduction in the behavior of some of the real and if the behavior increases, more of the actual shows. In Equation 3, the situation is reversed, While in Equation 4, the average of the two previous and it seems more appropriate model for the process is relative. But this test, only general estimates of the variables of the show. There are so linear, second-grade science test to be judged. For trend analysis, linear or parabolic well, the polynomial model has been used: (5) In this study, to test the significance of the methods of Spearman, Kendall and Pierson used. 

Climate change is possible in some areas, rainfall can not find a regime change. Change the falling snow, the total annual precipitation, rainfall is one form of regime change. Therefore, to determine how changes in rainfall, the relative amount of snow to total precipitation of the stations is considered. The results of this study showed that, this parameters relative trend for stations in Mahabad, Meianeh, Piranshahr and Sardasht is increasing and decreasing the remaining stations. To examine the relative significance of Kendall and Spearman correlations has been used. Correlation between these parameters with time and error rate calculated for each of the stations showed that only correlation stations Tabriz, Ahar, Khalkhal, Maku is a significant reduction of the 5 stations. The stations with significant trend line fitted patterns are also evaluated. The evaluation results is also show a linear trend of decrease of this parameter in the four stations, Ahar, Khalkhal, Maku and Tabriz. 

Analysis of annual total snowfall data trend showed that, there are meaningful decline in the station of Urmia, Tabriz, Ahar, Khalkhal, Piranshahr and the reducing trend of the snow at these stations. Also, the proportion of total annual snow precipitation relative trend, excluding stations Mahabad, Meianeh, Piranshahr and Sardasht were increasingly trend. In other stations, the state showed a reducing trend. The line fitted to the equation, represents a significant decline are in the station of Tabriz, Ahar, Khalkhal, Maku. Results of the comparison between the total snowfall and Percent of total annual precipitation as snow with trend temperature changes s howed Stations in the Urmieh, Tabriz, Ahar, Khalkhal Maku and Piranshahr the increase in annual average temperatures, snowfall rates of decline is significant and this could indicate a gradual warming in the North West's negative effects on the precipitation changes from snow to rain and regime change on precipitation from snow to rain and severe loss of water resources is dependent on snow melts gradually.

In a general division interurban public transport can be divided into two groups of public transport and private transport. Cars, motor bikes, including private vehicles, and metro different kinds of buses (Normal, electrical, Rail-guided) and Extremist buses (BRT) are vehicles of public transportation. (Report General Accounting Office Mass Transit.2001: 12). Between two forms of transport, public transport, for reasons which will be mentioned below, has always been considered citizens. In our country bus company responsible for a large part of the this section - which it engaged since the year 1335. This study aimed to analyze passenger satisfaction from the implementation of bus rapid Transportation (BRT) in the city of Tabriz and can be used achieved results in the development of these lines to further increase its effectiveness. In this research aspects, speed, driver behavior and the human factor (Ergonomic) in the form of questionnaires are discussed. Because the concept of effectiveness is the quality and the Branch Company as a service organization, offering their services to the general population, the satisfaction rate recipients of (travelers) quality of service is indicate. (Litman.T. 2004:54) In other words, the criteria used to assess the effectiveness of a public service organization must indicate the organization's responsiveness to community needs. For example, the effectiveness of the public transport system,do not depend on the number of people who use them, but is dependent on in this case that these trips are comfortable, fast and safe to be on time (Sohrabi, 1380: 71). Thus, if the bus company stakeholders divide to two internal stakeholder groups (administrators, staff, and driver lines) and external stakeholders (passengers), to assess the quality of transport services, the following questions arise: - What is the level of Branch Company performance? - Satisfaction of employees, especially drivers who lines as corporate forces played an enormous role in attaining the goals and satisfy external stakeholders (passengers), the performance of the organization paid service? In this study, the first group reviews to assess the quality of transport services has been discussed. 

In terms of the nature and method, this research considers descriptive - survey. Accordingly, the purposes of the research, the aim of using correlation techniques and introduce the quality model for urban services (Servqual) in this study is to find out, whether the between setup Extremist buses (BRT) and the consent of citizens and passengers vehicles of public transport, there is a relationship or not? Finally, the data were collected using a questionnaire with a sampling of three officials, the public and experts using sampling Cochran, respectively, 15, 300, 20 were selected as sample. Using various statistical tests and analysis of the variables within the model Servqual, to identify problems and paid BRT lines, as well as for data analysis software Excel, SPSS was used.

Measuring service quality in order to appropriate understand the services that the city should provide and whether this services are proper with expectations of citizens or not, and as well as is compared the quality of a public organization with other organizations responsible for Urban Affairs, this measure determines the degree and direction of difference between the the expectations of citizens and government organizations in the city (Parasuraman, 2005: 16). One of influence factors in the satisfaction of the public transportation in the city of Tabriz in general and United Bus Company in particular, is the quality of services provided. To measure passenger satisfaction Bus Rapid Transportation (BRT), a quality of buses Extremist (aspects, speed, driver behavior, and the human factor) as variables through two questionnaire (1 - measuring passenger satisfaction and 2 - Inventory Extremist bus company) goes through citizen surveys and statistical tests (Cronbach's alpha, Kolmogorov - Smirnov Pearson, Friedman test) briefly review the questionnaires components and variables are discussed and finally the project is also open to question and examine their results in order to assess priority problems, and cognitive factors on improving the quality of BRT lines BRT lines will be reviewed. 4–

According to obtained results from test of research, in the framework of the proposed model, we can conclude that the quality of service, the bus company Extremist (BRT) does not depend solely on the number of passengers transported per day, but is dependent on the quality of services provided. on the whole we can say that the average components Satisfaction Survey, components of driver behavior, environment of engineering, human factors, speed and services, be concluded that these components impacted respectively of passenger satisfaction buses Extremist BRT in the city of Tabriz. According to the results of various statistical tests on variables, it is inferred that there is a direct relationship between the commissioning buses Extremist and citizen satisfaction. And with promotion and development of the service quality of the research, thus the level of citizen satisfaction will be greater. from public transit system and the bus Finally with qualitative and quantitative measurement of citizen satisfaction with the service provided by the BRT bus company that was goal of this study, can be identified appropriate and effective ways of delivering services to the people and will be increased ability of Tabriz and Suburbs Bus Company with establishment of new systems for provide effectively and efficiently services to citizens.

Among various factors resulted in rapid and deep changes in the civil system of our country during some past decades, we could mention population growth, and parallel with it, growing urbanization. Such evolutions may reduce the consolidation and effectiveness of functions of urban system element and their communications and caused spatial disharmony. Therefore, one of main problems of spatial and regional development in Iran is disarrangement of spatial organization and lack of hierarchy based on the interaction between habitants. It seems that spatial organization of urban system in Zagros region level is a reflection of national levels in smaller scales. Increasing urban habitants and deprivation of necessary urban substructures and facilities couldnt help to absorb the population in small cities, practically and prevent migration to big cities. Continuing the current trend in the future, in addition to increasing the problems of urban society, would face the development trend of this region with serious challenges. 

Inequality during different eras and various views has been considered by philosophers, social scientist, economists, geographers, various field's theorists and other and resulted in formation of various theories in this context. To day in regional economic literature, there is increasing tendency toward considering causes and consequences of regional inequalities. Attention to spatial inequality and injustice as been appeared in geographical studies during 1970 s, as three contemporary known geographers- Johnston, Nax and Coutess- ac knowledged the study of spatial inequality as the center or focus of new geography. In the context of spatial inequality, we could mention a number of approaches. Some believe that inequality originates from capitalism performance, while others confirm the establishment of grow poles as main factor and finally there is radical approach that interprets the inequality of countries based on dependency theory: main basis of spatial inequalities is colonialism and in equal exchange rule in the way that the spatial work division caused to collect the investment in some optimal region, there for inequalities will originate and increase due to it. 

With respect to the results of general survey of capita and buildings, urban population of considered region in 1956 was equal to 537635 subjects that increased to 4442577 subjects in 2006 the average rate of urban population growth of this region in the late 50 years is 4/3% annually. The number of urban regions increased from 23 to 119 and urbanization coefficient 24/9% in 1956 increased to 60/99% in 2006. Considering primary urban changes, except Herfindal concentration index, showed that highest rate during 5 periods of survey from 1956 to 2006 relates to 1986. Also, all indices showed that this phenomenon is increasing from 1996 to present. To consider the changes of population distribution in urban localities, it was used Antropy coefficient, Ginni coefficient and Lorenz curve. Autropy coefficient showed that in 1976 there was most harmony in the urban system and after this period this harmony is decreasing jinni coefficient showed that during last five decades, this distribution reached toward lack of harmony as in every period, the population is distributed in a less harmonical way in urban regions in relation to the previous period. Also, by using centrality index, the extent of spatial concentration of services in cities in various cultural, social, educational, health- pharmaceutical, substructural and physical context, it was determined that the obtained results suggested intensive spatial inequality.

In Iran, population changes and evolutions, have a rapid and non- prog ramble growth in recent decades. Disharmony of regional development and existing local inequalities because of the effect of current mechanisms on the national socio- economic and political structures resulted to rapid urbanization and disharmony of development of small and big cities. Urban system in Zagros region is a reflection of national levels in the smaller scale. Research results showed that the urban concentration coefficient in this region has been decreasing from 1996 to present. But in respect to antropy coefficient, Ginni coefficient, Lorene curve and centrality index, it has tendency toward spatial disharmony. 5 - Suggestion In order to prevent and control present situation and decrease disharmony and modify the spatial arrangement in this region, the planners must consider the following procedures: - Harmonizing urban system with the aims of territory's survey and spatial planning. - Financing and giving credits and urban facilities, in forcing necessary urban substructures in this region in the direction of establishing regional harmony and balance and prevention of centrality.

Rule of arid and semi arid climates in the vast of the country along with population increase and the increase in water demand for urban use industry and agriculture of one side and the growing trend of increased direct and indirect pollution of water resources of The other side Implied that the status and quality of these resources to provide water for various uses and uses of, be studied (Noshad et al, 1388).change of groundwater quality and be saltation water resources are now in great danger in the development of country agriculture, especially dry lands. Optimum management of water resources and protecting and improve of quality of those Need to Existence of information about position, amount and distribution of water chemical factors In a certain geographical area. Geostatistics as one of the branches of practical statistics Provided study Simultaneous Amounts of Variable and arrangement of variable spatial and temporal observations in the data analysis (Gvvart, 1999). Using geostatistical techniques can be created continuous surface of Statistical properties of Known points(Deutsch, 2002). there are Different methods for the study and characteristics of the groundwater that each of them depending on local conditions And existence statistics and data of sufficient have Accuracy of different. Purpose of this study studies, qualitative zoning of underground water resources In terms of water quality parameters in the city of Kashan, by using geostatistical methods. This area is geographic range of "40, '57, ˚ 50 to" 37, '38, ˚ 51 east longitude, and "37, 31, ˚ 33 to" 22 and '08, ˚ 34 north latitude is In this study is used of methods of kriging, ordinary kriging, Inverse Distance Weights, Radial Basis Function, Local Polynomial Interpolation and Global Polynomial Interpolation. 2- Methodology In this study According to research goals 42 wells in the study area was selected with the appropriate distribution. and Amount elements of groundwater quality in the wells for the period 1380 to 1388 were examined and evaluated. Reasons for selection this period is completeness of statistical data of quality parameter. In the next step all data related to selected quality factors were study In terms of normality According to kolmogorov-smirnov test. After examining of data normality, finally parameters of Ca, Na, SAR, HCO3 for qualitative evaluating groundwater resources in this study were selected. To zones drawing of related to Quality parameters was used of Arc GIS9.3 software. In order to explain the continuity of spatial variables variogram data to a separately with Software GS plus was plotted and analyzed. Finally, with according to two factors RMSE (root mean square error) and R (coefficient sets) Best method for maps drawing of underground water quality were selected in the sity kashan and Aran Bidgol. Discussion After study and determine Fluorescence of Data Suitable variogram to determine the spatial structure and profile Was drawn with Using of GS + software, of variograms Analysis spherical model is the best model Fitted on Qualitative data. Spatial structure based on the standard (C/C+ C0) has been done too, According to the results obtained Measure values for C/C+C0 for every four parameters studied is more than 0/5. Results of evaluation methods showed that Between geostatistical method is most useful for study of variables HCO3, SAR, Ca and Na Methods Ordinary kriging with Higher R values and lower RMSE than the simple kriging is superior. and Between the specific methods for study qualitative variables HCO3, SAR, Ca and Na, respectively, methods, RBF, LPI, RBF and LPI are located. Conclusion In this study was to test normality of data was approved According to the results of spatial analysis of qualitative data in this study, high Influence. Range show that be effective the spherical model for best fit variogram on the data. According to principles of geostatictics, variable that have suitable spatial correlation and variance estimate is lower, fewer samples are needed to estimate(Zehtabyan, 1389), so it will also lower the cost of sampling. Thus, using Analysis variogram Ratio Nugget Effect for parameters, HCO3, SAR, CA and NA respectively 1/76, 0/58, 7/79 and 0/16 is calculated, that all the numbers obtained is small amounts that indicated high accuracy estimate with the variogram of fitted indicates a strong spatial structure for all four parameters is discussed. Also examine the spatial structure according to standard C / C + C0 shows that for the parameters, HCO3, SAR, CA and NA value for this measure, respectively is 0/98, 0/98, 0/92 and 0/99, The results indicative high spatial structure of data. The results of the geostatistical methods were used in this study showed that the method of choice for change mapping of hco3, Method Radial Basis Function to reason Higher R values and low RMSE (R= 0.44 and RMSE= 1.76) Was selected for Drawing of hco3 changes mapping. For SAR change mapping method of ordinary kriging (With values of R =0.75, RMSE =1.96), also for drowing change mapping of hco3 method of ordinary kriging(with Values of RMSE =5.75, R =0.41), and for drawing change mapping of na, method Local Polynomial Interpolation(with Values of R=0.55, RMSE =8.24) be selected. main cause reduction of ground waret quality in terms of quality parameters considered in study area is Unsuitable development of agricultural lands and Excessive utilization of ground water Which cause influx of brackish water to these areas.

Landslide is one of the natural phenomena that often rapid fall of the volume of sediments occur along domains. One of the undeniable effects of this phenomenon, intensification of soil erosion and transmission sediment to behind the dams of drainage basins. Since that the predicted time of occurrence of landslide is out of human knowledge, therefore, identification of sensitive areas to landslides and rating it can help prevent some of the risk of landslide occurrence. One of the main measures in this regard are mapping landslide hazard event. This process that based on understanding the natural features and quantitative modeling based on data from the study area occurs, can be a basis for further actions and planning for future development in the regional scale, regional and local level to be considered. Many researchers have studied the landslide zoning, Including: Gee, 1992, Van Westen et al, 1997, Guzzetti, et al, 2000, Saro Lee et al, 2001, Murat et al, 2002, Chowd Hury et al, 2003, pozhm, 1996, hagh shenas, 1996, bodaghi, 1997, farahani, 2001, sefidgari, 2002, shirani, 2004, izadi, 2006. 

Marbor river has a high potential for landslides and large landslides that have occurred. For mapping landslides in this area, aerial photo 1:40000, 1993 was interpreted and slip areas were identified and their positions in Google earth were determined. And finally position of 113 landslides in this area in GIS used. Several factors are involved in the occurrence of landslides, in this study, 9 factors lithology, land use, vegetation, rainfall, slope, aspect, distance from roads, distance from faults and distance from rivers was investigated and a total of 54 parameters were obtained for landslide zoning. 2.1 Landslide Index Landslide index is percentage slip level in each zone to zone an area divided by the total surface area of proportion to the total slip. (Van Westen 1998, shirani, 2005). Equation1: Li=((Si/Ai)/(∑In(Si/Ai))*100 That: Li is index of risk landslide occurrence in each area to percent, Si is area of landslide in each danger zone, Ai is area of each danger zone, n is number of zones. 2.2Accurately model (P) The accuracy of the method is sliding surface area ratio in the medium to high risk zones to total area of the zone. (farahani, 2001, shirani et al, 2010). Equation 2: P = KS/S That, P is model accuracy in medium to high risk zones. KS is area of landsliding in the medium to high risk zones. S is area of danger zones. 2.3 Accuracy of model (Qs) to determine the accuracy of the model, first Density ratio (Dr) is calculated and then accuracy of model by equation 4 is calculated. (Gee, 1992, shirani, 2005). Equation 3: Dr= Percentage of landslides/percentage of area Equation 4: That: Qs is total quality. Dr is Density ratio. N is number of risk categories. S is area ratio to the total area of each category of risk. 3-discussion Results showed that, AHP expertise in low sensitivity zones with the highest percentage of land area is allocated to the region and the area has the lowest percentage of area at risk is very high and the highest percentage of moderate-risk zone is located on the sliding surface. Qs of model was 0/35 and P model was 1/53, but increasing the compression ratio and landslide susceptibility index model in this region is moderately messy and in AHP consolidated method range with low sensitivity to most of the area is allocated and range with very low risk, the region has the lowest surface area and surface slip, but most of the slip surface located in high-risk area. 

This study was conducted with AHP expertise and AHP consolidated to landslide hazard zonation. For comparison logical models all factors and parameters were identical. Finally, 9 factors in 54 parameters as risk factors for the zoning district were selected and entered to the regression equation. Factors and parameters set using experts and field observations for AHP expertise were prioritized and entered to the process. Also, from the regression coefficients obtained and comments expertise integrated was used for AHP consolidated. After processes zoning models produced were put to the test. In AHP consolidated method factors such as distance from roads, lithology, vegetation, distance from river, land use, slope, aspect, rainfall and distance from fault had the greatest impact respectively. According to the results, model compilation for all zones of the AHP consolidated method, compliance with conditions of more landslides. According to the chart of landslides, AHP consolidated method in introducing the zones with very high sensitivity most important is the capability. In AHP consolidated method, values of P and Qs 1/73 and 0/45 respectively, in AHP expertise method 1/57 and 0/35. The numerical values of these parameters is more, models of higher accuracy is obtained. In fact P showed map accuracy of medium and high to top risk categories and the higher the value of these parameters, the model is closer to reality and any amount is more Qs map accuracy is higher for all categories and finally, the validity of the model used is higher. Therefore in this study, AHP consolidated method to the accuracy of indicators (Q) and total Quality (Qs) have better performance than the AHP expertise method. Weighting consolidated method, have more power than the expertise method for prioritization of appropriate parameters.

In many developing countries of Asia, Latin America and Africa, air pollutants emission has been increasing over the last two decades. Air pollution is a serious problem in many heavily populated and industrialized areas in the world. This has been primarily due to rapid economic growth in many of developing countries, resulting in increasing urbanization, transportation, industrialization, and energy generation (UNEP, 1997: 55). For this reason many air pollution studies have appeared in the international literature (Simpson and Layton, 1983: 1650). The study area was the City of Mashhad, a Holy City located at 36.20º latitude north and 59.35º longitude east, in the valley of the Kashef in the North-East of Iran. The aim of study is the determination of heavy metals level in air of Mashhad city with observation of their emission resources. Manjunatha (2001) and Rahn (1979) have used this factor to define the major source of atmospheric particles. Values of EF near unity suggest that crustal erosion is the primary source of element X; values much greater than unity imply the importance of other sources, such as anthropogenic activities, erosion of soil and dust. 

Sampling of air was carried out in two different areas of Mashhad city and 20 km far away from the city center on 2007-2008. For the chemical analysis of air, twenty-four hours sampling was done, using a high volume sampler (Dehm & Zinkeisen Firm) which sacks air pollutant and aerosol through Teflon filters (Fluopore membrane filter, Millipore firma). Teflon filters of <0.2 µm particle size and 47 mm diameter were used. The metals on filters were extracted with 65 % HNO3 digestion method (Koenig and and Fortmann, 1999: 43) and to be measured by Graphite Furnace Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (Backstrom and Danielsson, 1990: 37). Zn, Cu, Pb, Cr, Co, Cd is main heavy metals in air of urban and rural places which be analyzed. Pollution source was determined by Enrichment factor (EF). Enrichment factor (EF) is a simple statistical approach which is calculated using double normalization of the variable. 

Table (2) showed the average concentrations of elements deposited on filters at sampling sites. For some metals the results showed considerable differences between urban and rural areas. The mean values of heavy metals (ng m-³) measured in the urban area are compared with investigations carried out in other cities around the world (Tab. 3). Table 2: Mean and standard deviation (SD) of element concentrations (ng m-³) in air of investigated sites and the statistical significance (n = 24) between sites based on T-test Element Urban Mean + SD Rural Mean + SD Significance Pb 98.2 ± 32 7.5 ± 3.1 *** Cd 2.3 ± 1.5 0.7 ± 0.6 * Zn 4.8 ± 1.4 2.0 ± 0.7 Ns Cu 42 ± 8.6 44.2 ± 7.8 Ns Co 2.3 ± 2.0 0.7 ± 0.6 * Cr 49.6 ± 4.3 9.3 ± 2.2 ** * P ≤ 0.05, ** P ≤ 0.01, *** P ≤ 0.001, ns = not significant Table 3: Comparison of mean values of heavy metals (ng m-³) in Mashhad City with those of other Studies Places Cd Zn Pb Cu Cr Mashhad City 2.3 4.8 98.2 42 49.6 Amman (Jaradat and Momani, 1999) 26 94 400 Cairo (Hindy and Farag, 1983) 90 10 190 Dewas (Rao and Dubey, 1992) 240 49 140 Riyadeh (Raoof and Al-sahhaf, 1992) 40 200 240 Caracas (Escalona and Sanhueza, 1981) 690 410 <5 Taiwan (Wang, 1989) 156 78 17 Michigan (Pirrone and Keeler, 1996) 7.1 169 Santiago (Romo-Kroeger,1989) 310 100 220 The emissions of metals in urban and rural areas showed different temporal variation: - The changes in Cr concentration from May to September were at both sites relative low - The concentration of Cd increased at both sites from May to September - Co, Zn and especially Pb showed in the urban area a distinct increase from May to September but, in the rural area, the concentration of these metals remained almost constant. The particles of Pb in urban air was 13 times that of Cr 5 times and that of Zn and Cd about 2 times higher than those in rural air. Contrary to all other elements, the Cu concentration in air was rather higher in the rural area than in the urban area (Tab. 2). The higher concentrations of heavy metals in urban air in July and September compared to May could also be due to the higher air temperature, as dispersal of pollutants depends on variation in air temperature with height and the wind velocity. Mean heavy metals concentrations in the air of the urban from May to September was 98.2±32 for Pb, 49.6 ± 4.3 for Cr, 4.8±1.4 for Zn and Cd 2.3±1.5ng/m‌3. The particles of Pb in urban air was 13 times that of Cr 5 times and that of Zn and Cd about 2 times higher than those in rural air. In July and September large numbers of tourists visit the city of Mashhad using private automobiles. The distinct increase in concentration of lead, cadmium and cobalt in urban air during that time could therefore be due to the rapid increase in the number of vehicles. According to Oliva and Valdes (2004), traffic can be a major source of Cu in the atmosphere as it is produced by tire and brake shoe abrasion. 

The emission of Cd in Mashhad was almost similar to that measured in Chicago and Detroit but much lower that ascertained in Michigan and Cleveland. The concentration of Cr was in Mashhad City sometimes much higher than that found in other investigations mentioned in Table 3. The emission of Pb in Mashhad City was comparable to that measured in Santiago and in Amman. It was much lower than the values found in Chicago and Toronto, in Caracas and in Riyadh and in Dewas but higher than that determined in Cairo and in Taiwan. The calculated EF<10 was considered as crustal erosion and EF > 10 as anthropogenic sources. In the rural area with the exception of Zn and Pb, all other elements have an EF of less than 10. In the urban area, Co and Cd have low enrichment factors as in the rural area, whereas Pb, Cr, Zn and Cu have high enrichment factors. The metals Co and Cd are generally considered as anthropogenic pollutants. Their low EF in the urban area indicates that there are no major anthropogenic sources for these elements in Mashhad City as this is also the fact. Nriagu and Davidson (1986) estimate that more than 99 % of global lead emission is derived from anthropogenic sources and that approximately 60% of this lead was emitted from combustion of leaded gasoline. Pirrone and Keeler (1996 and references therein) proved that about 80 % of Pb was emitted from the combustion of leaded gasoline. Ogunsola et al. (1994) found a significant correlation between the concentration of lead, traffic density and high enrichment factor. In general, the air of Mashhad City is less polluted compared to other large cities in the world. As no major industry exists in the study area, one can therefore assume that the primary sources for most of the investigated metals with high EF in the urban and rural area are motor vehicles. There exists close to Mashhad City a leather factory which could be, in addition to traffic, a source of Cr and Co in urban air.

Chaos theory studies chaotic dynamic systems and tries to explain a kind of regulations which are hidden inside ir- regulations. Chaotic systems are nonlinear dynamic systems that are sensitive against their primitive conditions. A little change inside these primitive systems causes changes in future, so that their future behaviors cannot be predictive. In chaos theory only complex systems have chaotic and irregular appearance, meanwhile they follow a rule and regularity which formed by a non linear progress theory with a feed back. A system which has a chaotic processes makes variances and cycles that their periods are unlimited and don’t repeat during study period. Unrepeated and cycles inside a chaotic systems exists because of nonlinear boundaries moves inwards and outwards and tries to find a new direction that don’t overlay on its previous direction. These movements makes the Chaotic system a sensitive state against its’ primitive conditions. If changes inside the system has a little changes against its first conditions new timing trajectory of system will be apart of its previous time trajectory. We try in this paper to achieve variable that cause instability in river bed of Kol River by using chaos theory. We consider that there are regularities and none linearity pattern in kal river bed fluctuations despite of it in regular appearance. Seasonal limits and warm temperature during summer, none availability of access roads, especially for coastal regions, rareness of environmental studies of study region and unavailability of remote sensing temporal data were main limiting of the study.

Kol river catchment by an area about 205.9 Square km situated in Hormozgan Province of Iran. We used 19547 arterial photos of the region alongside to Landsat TM of 1977, 1989. 2001 and 2005to find river bed fluctuations and then used GIS soft ware ARC GIS (9.3) to record changes in a data base. We complete our study by field works to find stable and unstable areas and profile of Kol River by Geomorphologic considerations and methods. Finally we mapped all irregularities of river bed fluctuations for explanation of these changes by using Chaos theory concepts and methods.

Factors such as high slop profile of catchment basin, poor vegetations cover, impermeability of lithologic formations of the study regions’ rain shower state of precipitations and short concentration time for basin are main factors that leads to flooding state of Kol River so that the erosional potential of the basin is above normal state. Sediment analysis of the kol basin shows that suspended load of the river is above normal and this is result of fine alluvial deposits of the region.KOL delta has fine grains, by a little slope during flash floods and these leads to instability in middle course of the river and braided and widen it. During floods, the river course changes and human hazards and destructing constructions and bridges occurs, vesting arable lands, and human settlements. This means chaotic series that during their time courses may leads to abrupt failures and these makes their predicting very hard. If anyone tries to predict these chaotic series by using a set of observations, he/ she will oppose too many errors, even if he/she used high- tech observations. This is because that a series of chaos behaviors are more different than a series of accidental ones. 

We cannot consider all of those changes occur in Kol river bed as accidental and without any regulations inside, because these changes are results and depends on interactions among many form and processes variables. We can only consider these chaos situations in a systematic approach and in- equilibrium subject and can be explained in systematic geomorphology. Kol old courses are a state of the system that are not in balance by today processes and shoe an irregularities between form and process, but it is not show in- balance in whole system, it is showing a delay in system because of changes. Irregularities in whole trend after time delays and returning to old conditions. In balancing occurs when among dependent response variables (forming variables) have delays against changes in dependent (amount and processing factors) occurs and a delay occurs in relation of inputs and outputs of the system. We can conclude that we should change our approach to events, so that we can discover hidden constructed regulations.

Rivers as natural channels for collecting and transport of water, has always been an important consideration for the location of human habitations. River capture is one of the most important changes in river system that may lead to changes in other parts of the system. River capturingis a geomorphological phenomenon occurring when a stream or river drainagesystem is diverted from its own bed, and flows in the bed of a neighboring stream. As hydrological systems are inherently nonlinear(Amorocho and Brandstetter, 1971), therefore using chaos theory despite its complexities seems to be one of the simplest ways to define and predict of behaviors of these systems. The concept of chaos implies a kind of regulation in the framework of an irregular trend. One of the important issues that has been emphasized in chaos theory is the occurrence of large scale phenomena as the result of small changes in dependent variables, called butterfly effect. Current study tries to evaluate the probability of occurrence of river capture in eastern part of Ardabil plain and also its future effect on the region has been discussed. This phenomenon is occurring in a basin with area of 74.31 square kilometers near eastern border of Ardabil plain.Despite the smallarea of the basin in comparison with the Ardabil plain (4621 km2), the changes in this basin could lead to changes in whole hydrological system of the plain. The study area in this research is Ardabil plain. Rivers flowing in Ardabil plain includeBalkhlichay and Ghorichayare joined in GharaSouriver. Total drainage area of the plain is 4621.48 km2.

In this study, topographic maps (1:50000), geological maps (1:100000), Digital elevation Models (DEM) and aerial photographs besides field observations were employedfor doing precise evaluations. In order to investigate and predict of river capture phenomenon, at first effective factors on erosion in twonear basins (Ardabil and near basin in eastern slopes of Talesh) were studied and then the most critical part for occurrence of river capturingwas definedusing distance measured between river branches of two basins. As geological baseof two basins are similar, therefore the rate of erosion in 2 basins must be the same, but field observations show that the erosional rate in near basin is faster than eastern part of Ardabil plain. Slope gradient could be responsible for this process. Ardabil plain has a slope of 2-28%. Eastern parts of the plainhave an average slope of 2-5%, middle parts 0-1% and in western parts up to 28% slope could be observed. In eastern part, in comparison with near basin (20%) the slope gradient is very low. Therefore slope gradient could be an important factor in capturing river in this region. In order to investigate the probability of river capturing, 35 profileswereplotted between two drainage networks branches in 2 sides of the slope, then the distance between them were measured usingArcGIS. The results show that in profiles no. 1-12 in eastern part of the basin, the low sloperesulted in high probability for river capturing. Profile 21 has the lowest distance (115 m) and is the most critical location for capturing in future. Profile no. 26,with distance of 185 m, is another susceptiblelocation for capturing. Headward erosion and river capturing will cause a large amount of input water in Ardabil plain exit from the basin. With headward erosion and capturing, rivers in Ardabil plain will find their ways to Armenia or Caspian Sea and both of these probabilities are potential threats for Ardabil plain. Also this phenomenon may have several impacts on agricultural activities and economy of the region and transportation network (Astara-Ardabil road) and especially Ardabil airport that is located near the critical point. Furthermore, humanactivities that increase the landslide may facilitate the headward erosion and could increase river capturing process.

Evaluation of erosional chaos in Ardabil plain implies that headward erosion in eastern part of the plain will have several impacts on the regionand with increasingheadward erosion, the occurrence of the capturing in eastern slope will be inevitable and hydrological system and drainage network will be changed totally and many constructions and roads and also Ardabil airport, will be in danger. To avoid raising this problem in future, more considerationsand planning need to be established and controlling activities in critical points is necessary.

As we know, many of today's environmental problems are the result of unsustainable living patterns. According to Mollison most of today’s problems result from a lack of taking personal responsibility in life. The consumptive lifestyle and the excessive accumulation of wealth, power, and land has led to the ecological threats mankind is facing today. Loss of wetland ecosystems is for unsustainable living pattern also. Just wetland ecosystem destruction due to natural factors such as climate change, drought and low rainfall, but due to increasing human incorrect activities, including Drying of wetlands, inappropriate use of wetland resources such as water, vegetation, water pollution and waste. Studies show that rural communities of the three dimensions of economic meaning dependence of economies and livelihoods, social - cultural meaning relationship with wetland and ecological including effects on wetlands associated with wetland ecosystem. If each of these three dimensions is unstable, the wetland ecosystem will be unstable. Therefore, study the pattern of life of rural communities surrounding wetland is necessary to find reasonable solutions for the sustainability of rural communities and ecosystem stability. In response to ecological, social and economic challenges of the unsustainable living patterns, Ecovillage model has been appearing worldwide. They are designed to create a supportive social with low environmental impact. It is a model for promoting sustainable living patterns with addresses environmental, social and economic Instabilities by implementing sustainable structures and methods. Overall, this study this study aimed to evaluate level of sustainability of lifestyle based on Ecovillage model in the villages of surrounding of Miankale and Lapo Zaghmarz wetlands. 

Methodology is descriptive- analytic and surveying. The independent variable in this research is sustainable lifestyle based on Ecovillage model. Based on research findings, 15 factors include of 6 factors for ecological sustainability, 4 factors for economic sustainability and 5 factors for social sustainability have been obtained to assess level of sustainability of lifestyle based on Ecovillage model. Research case study consisted of village’s of around of Miankale and Lapo wetlands in Mazandaran and Golestan Province, that based on factors of settling in basin of wetland, settling in 1000 meters to rivers, setting in 8 kilometers of wetland, Population density and economic dependence on wetland, 13 villages were selected. Research population consisted of villager’s 13 villages in Behshar, Galoga, Bandargaz and Torkman Township (township’s surrounding wetlands) that with Cochran method 360 were selected as research sample. Reliability of Questionnaire with Cronbach Alpha method (0.947) and validity of Questionnaire with KMO test were confirmed. After data gathering, assessment sustainability level of lifestyle of rural communities was analyzed with one sample t-test test by SPSS software and Barometer of Sustainability (for assessment human Welfare and sustainability of the Natural ecosystem) and Radar of Sustainability or AMOEBA by EXEL software. 

The results in terms of one sample t-test test and the mean value 1.77 indicate villages of surrounding of Miankale and Lapo wetlands have a relatively poor level of sustainable lifestyle based on Ecovillage model. The difference in the level of alpha 0.05 (Sig = 0.000) is significant. In terms of dimension, the results indicate low levels of sustainability based on Ecovillage model in all three in the study area. This difference is significant at the alpha level (Sig = 0.000). Also dimension of ecological with mean value 1.93 is more sustainable than social dimension with mean value 1.82 and economic dimension with mean value 1.56 for sustainable lifestyle in the villages of around wetland in studied area. Terms of Alan Prescott classes of assessment, sustainability level of lifestyle based on Ecovillage model in rural areas with a score of 0.441 on average stability (0.6 to 0.4) is. Sustainability Level of dimension was also evaluated. Sustainability Level of ecological dimension with a score of 0.512 and social dimensions with a score 0.423 are average and sustainability Level economic dimension with a score 0.388 is low. Also sustainability level of living pattern assess by Barometer Model. Results indicate human welfare with a score 0.408 and sustainability of natural ecosystem with a score 0.512 is average.4-

The results show that in rural communities of surrounding wetland, living pattern based on Ecovillage Model is unsustainable. Rural communities in all three ecological, Social- cultural and economic dimensions relationship with wetland ecosystem are unstable. In the ecological, physical system of villages were nearly consistent with the environment. Other parts of the ecological including waste management, wastewater management, Consumption patterns and etc are lack of balance with wetland ecosystems. The rural economy system focus on traditional economic practices and principles of sustainable living including alternative livelihood strategies and local trade and exchange there is in villages. In Social systems, villager’s ecological understanding, knowledge and attitudes towards place or sense of place and responsibility is high, because villagers of wetland surrounding have understood importance of wetland ecosystems for their livelihood and economic survival. Overall, the results indicate despite the adoption of sustainable rural development strategy as a thinking and paradigm, it has not been considered in Villages in the study area by Policy makers and planners. On wetland ecosystems, Wetlands management is not based on the relationship between planners and researchers with villagers and farmers of wetland. Also Wetlands protection program is only limited to wetlands and regional approach to wetlands is not considered.