نشریه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی
سال بیست و هشتم شماره 1 (پیاپی 65، بهار 1396)

Abstract
One method of flood forecasting and flood control in rivers is ‘flood routing'. The relationship between precipitation and runoff and creating flooding in the region is not linear mathematical relationship which we can predict flooding in one region and such phenomena should be regarded as a model. Artificial intelligence methods such as artificial neural network and fuzzy inference system can be used as a good method in this field. In this study, using artificial neural network and fuzzy inference system, which are two types of the most widely used computational intelligence, we attempt to predict flood in Zard River. For the implementation both methods, first, the necessary data were collected and then wrong data were excluded from the data set and the data have been normalized. Modeling using artificial neural networks using MATLAB software coding was performed on data. To implement, the fuzzy inference system were used from prepared data. In this study, types of artificial neural networks structures with different number of neurons and hidden layers, number of educational courses and different functions have been performed on the data until obtaining the best structure for study area. Fuzzy inference models were implemented until the best model is chosen. Results showed that in general, fuzzy inference system have a better simulate data in the studied area and better and more accurate results than the artificial neural network model is showed. Also, values of MSE and r in fuzzy inference system and artificial neural network is equal to 0.2196, 0.0297, 0.7667 and 0.96 respectively which shows higher accuracy of fuzzy inference system for predicting floods in the our area of the study.

Tourism and recreation are important economic factors which are directly connected to weather and climate of a specific destination. Climate is an important resource for tourism and an equally important element that needs to be included in tourism purposes. Tourism, especially coastal or maritime tourism is an important source for economic growth in the countries such as Iran. This study reveals potential impacts of climate change on tourism in south beaches of Iran. These conditions were identified by using Climate Tourism Information Scheme (CTIS) over 1989-2008 period in the 24 meteorological stations and analyzing the different thermal perceptions values that emerged. At first, by using of Ray Man and CTIS software models, thermal, physical and aesthetical aspects of Climate Tourism Information Scheme were calculated. Then, Mann-Kendal method was also used to detect possible trends in the data time series. The results revealed that from December to February is the optimum period (comfortable) in the Oman Sea shores and March and November in Persian Gulf shores. The parameters of thermal and physical aspects have changed in the studied area. The results also indicated, in Oman, sea shores that sultry days and heat stress are absolutely consistent with increasing and thermal comfortable with decreasing trend. These conditions cause a decrease in the desirable times for tourism in the future. In the Persian Gulf shores, the situation is different. In the March and November, a significant decrease in cold, heat stress and sultry trends was evident. Therefore, it is predicated that desirable times for tourism will increase in the future.

One of the unique features of the northern plains of the Zanjanrood water basin in Zanjan province is the existence of parallel rivers to the deep valleys. Given the gentle slope of smooth surfaces around the valleys, which do not end up in the valleys, it can be said that the existing landforms are not in equilibrium with today's processes. The distinction between mountain conics in topographic maps and field evidence suggests that new plains are not expanding in the plains, while the valleys are excavated within the old alluvial fans and the entire surface of the northern plains are covered. The rivers such as Sohrien, Armaghankhneh, and Saromsaghloo, which have a considerable water surface area above the mountain-front sinuosity, are in deep valleys, which in their mountainous sinuosity, sometimes their depths exceed 100 meters and in the long run a large part of the route ends with the maintenance of the initial altitude difference relative to the surrounding areas to Zanjanrood. A survey of topographic conditions of the alluvial-covered plains, the pattern of parallel streams and the closure of the plains of the deep-water valleys from the topographic and geological maps of the area, along with field evidence, indicate intense tectonic involvement in evolution of the northern plains of Zanjanrood. In this research, morpho-tectonic indices such as the river length gradient (SL), asymmetry factor of catchment (AF), the valley floor width- to- height ratio (VF), mountain-front sinuosity index (SMF), and Symmetry of lateral topography (T) have been used. Estimated numbers in terms of the above indicators were classified in three classes from 1 to 3 (active or inactive). The results indicated that this sub-area is tectonic and in the active group.
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Snow-covered areas and its variations are important parameters in hydrological and climatic systems. For the regions that snowmelts supply needed water, snow cover trend analysis is of great importance. Many big rivers of Iran originate from snow glaciers in mountains. So, investigation of snow cover changes is actually important. In the present study, the changes of snow-covered days in different elevation zones in Iran have been calculated via using MODIS Terra and MODIS Aqua data. The highest resolution data of these products that are available at 500m resolution were applied from 1382 to 1393. The Digital Elevation Model (Dem) of Iran that is in accordance to snow data both in resolution and projection system was exploited from NASA web site. In the first step, the frequency of snow covered days was calculated for each of the elevation zones from 1500 to 5500 in the intervals of 100 m and, as the second step, the trend of each zone was analyzed using Mann-Kendall test. The results indicated that in the months of Farvardin, Tir, Amordad, Shahrivar, Azar, Bahman, and Esfand no significant trend exists in any of the elevation zones. However in the months of Ordibehest and Khorad, there were negative trend in twenty one and ten elevation zones, respectively. It was also noticed that some positive trend exist in some of the individual elevation zones in the months of Mehr, Aban and Dey. In these aforementioned months, the numbers of elevation zones with positive trend were 2, 1 and 1 respectively.

Debris flow is one of the most important processes in material displacement, which causes the formation and increase of sediment loads of rivers. In order to investigate the debris flow in the northern slopes of Alvand in central Zagros, 44 samples of debris flows are selected randomly and morphometric parameters such as liner section flow, highs, deeps section, core width, slope were calculated using observation and measurement statistical real analysis regression by aerial photograph and topography maps with 1:50000 and 1:25000 scales and ArcGIS9. Effective climatology parameters on debris including rain, snow and temperature were studied using 10 stations in the region (1991-2010). The study shows that the effects parameters on debris flow are altitude and slope in northern alvand slopes. But, the debris flows are spread in 2700-3000m altitude indicates the important role of lithology, tectonic and snowfall factors along with the glaciation and erosion system of the glacial side in the formation and development of regional debris. The study of precipitation effects through the Cain and Biljinberg formula show that rainfall of 15 to 105 minutes in some years caused debris flow motion on the slopes entering the rivers and increase their sediment load.
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Wind deposits are a major source of long-standing environmental information and stratigraphy and ýsedimentology of the sand dunes can be used to interpret past events due to increased wind ýactivity. Stratigraphic and sedimentary elements of sand dunes such as Paleosoal and clay ýdensity can serve as indicators of climate change and provide useful evidence for the ýreconstruction of past environments in arid regions. Given that very limited information is available on the characteristics of the ancient climates of dry and desert regions of Iran, the stratigraphy of sediments in the hills and nebkas of these regions can help to understand the past climate of the region. In this research we investigated effects of climate change on the characteristics of nebka layers and ýtry to reconstruc Paleoclimatic of nebkas in Ala basin in the Semnan Province.ý The method of this research is based on field and laboratory studies as well as data analysis of the observation wells and wind data of this basin. ýThe results showed that nebka layers are thicker in newer layers than the older ones, that ýimplies more sedimentation in recent periods due to increase in groundwater levels and during periods of drought in ýthe region as well as more material removal and deposited by wind around nebkas that ýis due to the decrease in groundwater levels which has significant impact on nebka's layers and ýstratums. As the groundwater level decreases, the amount of adhesion of the sedimentary particles of the strains decreases due to the availability of reduced moisture content, and if this subsidence of groundwater continues to persist, over the years, the condensation of these impurities becomes a corrosive environment. Considering the prevailing winds the strongest and in the basin, the southeastern and southern marginal cities of this nebka are exposed to dust storms resulting from the erosion of exploration of these nebkas

Landfilling is one of the important suffering issues for human being. Problems caused by landfilling have led some countries to gather urban waste in unprotected area. Because of the mentioned issue, landfilling is a significant discussion in environmental engineering. This research aimed at selecting suitable sites for garbage massing in Ahvaz urban area via integrated ELECTRE-AHP approach using GIS techniques in two main steps. At the first step, 23 effective criteria in landfilling site selection were collected from the in charge of organizations. The criteria were standardized and analyzed using Geographical Information Systems. After the standardization process, expertise opinion was applied and FAHP method was applied for criteria weighting process. Finally, each of the weighting criteria and 17 criteria were overlapping at this stage. The outcome of this method is 5 suitable sites for landfilling in the northern east and east region of Ahvaz. At the next step, 5 sites achieved from the previous step were ranked by ELECTRE method using the 6 remained criteria. The achievement of implementing this step is 3 options with the same worthiness for landfilling. The results show that the selected sites, compared to the current garbage mass place located on humid winds flows as well as high water level in the south and southeast region, have the better conditions in terms of health and sanitary problems. Also, integrated ELECTRE-AHP approach due to considering the relative nature of criteria values in weighting and ranking, has more efficiency compared to prior methods used to locate the current landfilling sites (Safireh and Brumi region).

Hydropolitics is a branches in Political Geography which is about role of water in political relations in various levels. Iran is one of the countries that is located in arid and semi-arid areas and because of inappropriate place and time transmittal of precipitation, has suffered from water scarcity. Meanwhile, Zayanderood basin, which is the biggest river of central catchment area of Iran, supplies water of some parts of Isfahan, Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari and Yazd provinces. This basin is very important because of its high agricultural and tourism potential and being the population and industrial pole of the country. These factors have increased the need for water in the basin between residents of this catchment and other beneficiaries so that some tensions and disputes has occurred. This paper is based on the premise that with the growth of the industry and settlements and all the constraints of water resources, the tensions caused by the shortage of water resources will increase. Data for this paper were obtained from library and field methods. The results indicated that population growth and urbanization, the growth of industries, its changing nature and unsustainability, the unplanned withdrawal of underground water and traditional agriculture, have been one of the most important limiting factors for water and, consequently, caused tension in this basin. As a result, Zayanderood’s water per capita dramatically decreases and exacerbates the shortage of water and can endanger national security with the economic, social and environmental consequences as a hydro-political crisis.

Considering the necessity and importance of the existence of water as a living resource, and at the same time, increasing population and the growing need for this source, providing water for drinking, agricultural and industrial purposes is one of the serious challenges in today’s world. The Karst can be a good source for water supply. The studies and researches of Karst water resources, due to limited alluvial resources in terms of quality and quantity and due to the wide expansion karst formations in the country, have particular importance. Khorin limestone is located in the northwest of Kermanshah city, where the main waters of the settlements around this area and the Hashilan lagoon are provided by the springs, Mirage and karst aquifers of this mountain. Therefore, in this study using the Fuzzy Logic / AHP model and employing eight effective criteria, the zoning map of potential Karst water resources of region was prepared. Then, to ensure the obtained areas, they were evaluated by field operations and geophysical methods. The results of the plot prepared with the fuzzy logic model showed that the southern ridge of Khorin and around the Hashilan lagoon had the capability and the potential of more Karst water resources. In order to validate this work, field operations and data collection was performed by vertical electrical sounding method in two separate profiles in the southern and northern slopes of the Khorin Mountain. The presence of a rich source of high quality water in the middle section of the southern slope and the lack of water resources in the northern slope confirmed the accuracy of the zoning results by the Fuzzy Logic / AHP model.

Due to water resource limitations on one hand and increasing depletion of groundwater resources worldwide on the other hand, there is a growing attention among urban and regional planners about balancing supply and demand. In this respect, it is recommended to use a multidimensional tool which links regional development to water resource. This paper aims to apply Water Poverty Index (WPI) which consists of five main components; resource, access, capacity, use, and environment; in order to compare different counties of Qazvin province. Results showed that southern part including Avaj, Takestan, and Buiin Zahra County have weaknesses in capacity (high rate of infant death and illiteracy) and environment component (high usage of fertilizer and toxin and low water quality). In contrast Qazvin County gained a good result because of rich water resources, and good situation in capacity and use component. Moreover, Alborz County, in the second rank, had a high access and environmental grade. Finally as a result of using SPSS software driving forces in province scale were found. Results showed that the two most significant components in this region are environment and capacity. Our findings lead to a better understanding of opportunities and threats in water issue and would be a useful tool for achieving a comprehensive and systematic view of a region in order to develop more water-oriented.