فصلنامه پژوهش های پولی - بانکی
پیاپی 26 (زمستان 1394)

Monetary base growth control and lack of sufficient supervision on deposit interest rates has worsened the financial health in 1993 (Hijri-Shamsi). In this paper, we use a probability panel model and study the effect of macroeconomic variables and banks size on the possibility of the bank financial health. The results show that (due to the inefficiency of the banking system in Iranian economy and its reliance on monetary base), the one-digit inflation targeting have worsen the financial health.

Despite the explosive growth of electronic payment systems, banknotes and coins still play an important role in retail payments. Optimal combination of currency has significant impact on cash payment system efficiency and reduces costs of production and distribution of currency. This paper aims to optimize the ratio of each denomination in the combination of banknotes and coins. To achieve this objective, the allocation of banknotes and coins in retail prices of goods and services consumed by households is used inspired by the greedy algorithm in MATLAB software environment. The results show that economy needs more low value currencies. In order to economic performance and to prevent losses a model for optimal distribution, larger note and new denominations issuance have been proposed.

Many Iranian economists believe that producer price index (PPI) inflation lead consumer price index (CPI) inflation. Based on this hypothesis, increasing (decreasing) in PPI inflation is a signal for future increasing (decreasing) in CPI inflation. Using CPI and PPI sub components, this paper tests the abovementioned hypothesis. 359 sub components of consumer basket and 751 sub components of producer basket during 1383 to 1392 are information used in calculations. The results show that PPI inflation does not lead CPI inflation, but by eliminating the common sub components between CPI and PPI from PPI components and reconstructing PPI, we see that reconstructed PPI inflation can lead CPI inflation both in long and short run.

Fiscal policy is an important macroeconomic policy tool for dampening the amplitude of business cycles in the oil-exporting countries. This importance derives from the fact that these countries have the highest volatility of output in the world and that a majority of countries have exchange rate pegs or manage their exchange rates, thereby limiting the scope of monetary policy. The main objective of this paper is to characterize and explain the determinants of the cyclical behavior of fiscal policy in Iran during 1979-2011. To this end, we overcome the endogeneity problem using the Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM). We find that fiscal policy is strongly pro-cyclical and oil price volatility and quality of institutions have an important role in determining the degree of cyclicality in fiscal policy. In addition, we focus on the role Played by the fiscal rule, which appears to be a key determinant of a country’s ability to escape the pro-cyclicality trap and actually become countercyclical. However, we find that national fiscal rules defined in the Third Development Plan as expenditure rule and oil Price-based rule (Foreign Exchange Reserve Account (FRA) Foundation) do not affect the reduction of fiscal policy pro-cyclicality. Furthermore, we conclude that Iran is unable to run countercyclical fiscal policies if it has weak institutions quality.

One of the major problems of the Iranian banking industry is non-performing loans and facilities which are not collected nowadays. Most economists believe that the growth of nonperforming loans is a sign of non-optimal allocation of banking resources showing that the banking system is managed publicly and the emphasis on expanding share of private banks in the banking industry. Thus, with transferring state banks to the private sector in recent years, as well as the establishment of new private banks, it is necessary to investigate the effect of development of private banks on non-performing loans of the banking system in Iran. For this reason, the present paper attempts to test and analyze the effect of development of share of private banks in the banking system on nonperforming loans of all banking system by using seasonal data of 2001 to 2011 and by applying Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results showed that there is a significant long-run relationship between development of share of private banks in the banking system and the whole nonperforming loans in the banking system. The research also emphasis that this correlation in Long-term will be negative.

It has been said about variety of capital markets and financial institutions to mobilize savings and increase investment and raise capital formation in our country for a long time. By Looking at The foreign samples in the field of Waqf founds, it is seen that during the long years these institutions worked and Waqf founds in west and far east were the provider of financial affairs for many of cultural and social institutions. The purpose of this paper is to find out the potential of an innovation in the Islamic financial instruments, cash Waqf, as an effective factor in investment and its relationship with development plans in order to reduce poverty in the society. For this purpose, the present study is based on functionality; in terms of methodology is survey-analysis and is based on analysis of covariance matrix of the model using a structural equation modeling (SEM). The results of the study show that if Cash-Waqf to be used as a financial instrument in the Islamic economics, it can be a source of increase in investment in the form of Islamic contracts and legal forms and using the profit of investment in poverty reduction programs and to provide microfinance for people with low income and can be effective in the development of Islamic society.