فصلنامه پژوهش های پولی - بانکی
پیاپی 4 (تابستان 1389)

Due to the enhancement of Iran’s banking system through increasing services and credits in recent years, the performance of the banking system on net employment has been of interest to be examined. What is important is to see the efficient role of such credits in creating new job opportunities in economic sectors. Therefore, the purpose of this paper has been to investigate the effects of changes in bank credits on employment of the country’s agriculture, industry and services sectors, and to measure the trend of employment creation over the period 1983-2006. Accordingly, the indicators of both job-creation and job-destruction have been formulated to calculate the net employment in these sectors created by the bank credits during the considered period. The results obtained indicate that the allocation of bank credits has created the highest annual rate of employment, on average, in the agricultural sector, while the lowest rate has belonged to services. Basically, the results reveal the fact that the performance of the banking system has made volatile employment to these sectors, particularly to the services, so that such credits have led job-destruction in several years of the period.

Exchange rate fluctuations, affects aggregate demand by means such as imports, exports and money demand, and it also affects aggregate supply by means of imported inputs costs. So the result of these effects on real output and prices depends on economic performance of country.Generally, a positive shock of exchange rate in goods market results in lowering export prices while raising import prices, so demand for domestic goods increases. On the other hand with devaluation, firm's liquidity demand raises and so money demand. In supply side of economy, a positive shock of exchange rate (devaluation), raises imported inputs costs and hence product costs and prices in developing countries.The objective of this study is to investigate hypothesis of asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output and prices in Iran's economy and present guidance to handle these effects. To do this, Hodrick- Prescott filter is used to decompose shocks and assess their effects on real output and price during 1983-2007.The results show that, the hypothesis of asymmetric effects of exchange rate shocks on output is accepted but this hypothesis for prices is rejected.

The main objective of this study is to analyze the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on real output and the components of aggregate demand in Iran. The effect of exchange rate fluctuation -decomposed to expected and unexpected components - is considered beside fiscal and monetary policies. A system of equations, including real output, consumer expenditures, private investment, non- oil exports, and imports, is used in this study. Applying a SUR estimation method for the period of 1960 to 2007, the following results from the exchange rate shocks (positive and negative) were observed: The effect of increasing exchange rate (a negative shock) on consumer expenditures and non-oil exports is significant. As a result of exchange rate shock (money devaluation), the level of consumer expenditures rise and the level of non-oil exports decline. As the second result, the level of imports shows no response to exchange rate shocks. However, the government expenditures have positive effect on imports and its effects is higher than monetary policy. Finally, the exchange rate shocks show no effect on real domestic products and private investment.

Banks, as the most important institutions in money market, have a vital role in financing manufacturing, service-delivery and trade projects. As a result of a set of problems in economy of Iran, nowadays banking system is faced with financing problems itself. A common method in solving this problem is to use bank's assets backed security. Applying this instrument is common in conventional banking, but it is not yet widely used in Islamic banking, for example in Iran.As a result of Security Market Law in 2005 (1384) and its amendment in 2009 (1388 in Iran) designing and offering of new securities became accepted. Now banks can finance themselves in capital market through designing and offering new financial instruments.This article, which it's purpose is to introduce such an instrument, is composed of two sections. In first section, after reviewing history of bank asset's securitization in conventional and Islamic banking, we explained the goals, performance and pathology of securitization in banks. Then, we designed a compatible financial instrument for securitization of bank assets for Iranian banks. Such an instrument should comply with some conditions: first, it should be acceptable in Fiqh. Second, it should meet the terms of Monetary and Financial Law of Iran. Third, bearing in mind the role of financial instruments in creating the recent financial crisis, it must not create crisis.

This paper uses the signaling approach to anticipate the banking and currency crisis in Iran and analyze the links between them. Banking system in Iran encountered banking crisis from 1384(2005) till the second half of 1388(2009) and balance of payment crisis has occurred in forth season of 1367(1988), the early 1367(1988), end of 1372(1993) and early 1373(1994), and first season of 1374(1995) and the mid of 1377(1998). These occurrences prove that there is no polarity between these two crises in Iran. We found find that index of stock market and the real interest rate are the most credible variables in predicting the banking crisis and also index of stock market; and real exchange rate are the most credible in predicting the currency crisis. Now Iran is in the transitive era of banking crisis. According to the common variables in predicting these two crises, the negligence of the policymakers to variation of these variables, could confront the country with the twin crisis.

Determining the economic growth driving forces has a paramount importance in economic studies. Early studies have been suggesting physical capital accumulation as the main driving force of growth. However, the recent studies try to resolve the flaws of the economic classical views on growth by expanding and extending the concept of capital equipment and machinery areas to a wider range of human knowledge, on one hand, and institutions, rules and regulations as social capital, on the other. In fact, this branch of economics has become more prevailed. The present study, using Hausmann, Pritchett and Rodrik (2005) approach, aim to investigate the impact of rules and regulation reforms of developmental plans on the acceleration of Iran economic growth over 1338-1386 (1960-2008) period. The results of three methods including Gompit,Logit and Probit models show that economic reforms of the developmental plans in Iran's economy had a significantly positive impact on growth.

The situations of macroeconomic and governments and central bank’s intervention in economic accompanied by business cycles consequences which figure out in the economic, can stimulate profitability of borrowers and affect the default in payments of banking systems. In such an atmosphere, having an estimated model helps us to better understand the relations among macroeconomic variables, the behavior of bad loans and credit risk. In this paper, we study the influence of macroeconomic shocks on the bad loans from 1386 to 1379(Persian calendar). At first, we applied an ARDL model to estimate the variables. Since the exogenous variables of this model have endogenous characteristic as well, we attempt to utilize a VAR model to explain the dynamic behavior of these variables. We use impulse-response function as a stress testing factor to investigate the impulse effects of bad loans to economic shocks. Based on our estimated models, the effects of economic shocks such as inflation, non-oil GDP, liquidity and loans interest rate, which are the results of fiscal and monetary policies, respectively are higher on non-performing loans.

Banking credit assessment system known as Credit reporting or Credit Bureau System is based on information sharing principle and in fact is shaped and implemented by the participation of different organizations by sharing valuable credit information of individual and companies. Credit Bureau members should store the credit information of customers in a coherent database and comply with specific standards in order to enable other members to access to the valuable information via specific access information. Implementation of such mechanism is applicable just by information technology (IT). Speed, accuracy and security are three main characteristics of this system. On the other hand, internal architecture of the system enables rapid processing of information and storing huge amount of them (for instance, creating credit file for every Iranian citizens and company for five active year archive). Also there are some different protocols regarding network security and information sharing. Iran Credit Scoring (ICS) has been established as a credit reporting agency or credit Bureau institution of Iran in line with Iranian 44 articles of privatization and Parliament’s credit acceleration law. These laws mission is to develop and implement credit bureau system for the banking and credit industry and making all needed infrastructures prepared with the support of Economic ministry and central bank and participation of banks.The author of this article has tried to present the activities and achievements of the ICS companies as a benchmark in successful developing and implementing a credit bureau system, defined the position of modern technologies for banks and insurance companies in assessing the customers’ creditworthiness and finally discussed scientific and technical perspectives such as information sharing, storing, processing and reporting, providing network security, data transferring paths and data transferring format (XML).