فصلنامه پژوهش های پولی - بانکی
پیاپی 6 (زمستان 1389)

Monetary policies take place for different purposes; including price stability, economic growth and employment. Also, presenting value of national money and balance of payment are important. The vague is that: what targets policy makers consider Important in performing the monetary policies.In this research, the final target about monetary policies in Iran is evaluated. Based on central bank policy reaction function in form of DCt (monetary policy reaction function) as central bank internal asset It is estimated according to economic theories and Iran economic structure as a function of FA,ER,CPI,GDP for the years 1352-1386 (1973-2007) by using co-integration procedure and Johanson & Juselius method The results show that central bank foreign assets and market base currency rate effect positively and significantly on policy reaction function and actual domestic gross production variable and consumer price indicator has negative and significant effect on DCt. Also as a general conclusion it is inferred that policy makers follow a consistent and persistant policy. In fact, during this period, the goal of central bank was the stability of prices and preservation of domestic national money value in Iranian economy.

Friedman (1988) introduced Stock Price Index (SPI) as explanatory variables into the money demand function. He explained that SPI has two effect substitution and income effects on money demand. This study examines the long-run effect of stock price on demand for money by using Bounds test approach to level relationship and Granger causality test over the period of 1370:1-1386:4 (1990:1-2006:4) Bounds test results strongly confirm the existence of long-run relationship among variables in both demands for real M1 and M2 models. Moreover, our result reveals that SPI has a significant substitution effect on long-run demand for real M1 and M2. In these two definitions of money, long-run elasticity of real money demand to GDP is greater than one and long-run elasticity of real money demand to exchange rate is positive and less than one. Moreover, long-run elasticity for real money demand to inflation and SPI is negative and less than one in absolute value. In demand function for M1 and M2, one percent increase in SPI reduces the long-run real money demand about 0.015 and 0.10 percent, respectively. The inverse effect of SPI on money demand confirms the existence of substitution effect. Moreover, Granger causality test results confirms indirect one-side casualty from the set of independent variables to real M1, and M2 at 10 and 5 percent significance level in the long-run, respectively.

Raising saving, level removal of financial resource obstacles to investment and increase in productivity allare require the financial structure reform and banking system improvement. This study, investigate the impact of financial development composition Index on economic growth in Iran by use of composition approach, using time series data 1352-86, and econometric models with ARDL and ECM method, test and analysis Cobb-Douglas production function for Iran. The results show that economic growth doesnt react to financial development changes (in the short time and long run). It is necessary, to harmonize financial sector development in finance and money services sector with macro economic objectives, while adjusting economic policies to rising financial and money service sector efficiency.

Distribution of income due to its economic and social effects has always been the focus of attention of economists. In this study, we measure the effect of money market development on income inequality in Iran by using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) from 1967 to 2006. The results show that money market development reduces income inequality in the long-run and short run. Furthermore, literacy and economic growth rate would decrease inequality. There was a positive significant relationship between the degree of economic openness and income inequality. The study results emphasize on the necessity of promoting the money market as an important policy tool to reduce income inequality.

We try to explore through a pathological analysis the factors affecting the banking quality in Iran and to propose solutions for them. Data for this study is collected through field operation. To do so, SERQUAL questionnaire which includes 22 electronic banking indicators which consists of 5 sections used to explain different phases of calculating the degree of importance and distributed to 158 persons. The gap between customers’ expectations and prevailing banking services was calculated on the basis of the first and second phase of answers of the questionnaires. Clients’ satisfaction was calculated in the next phase and customers’ needs and their level of importance were explored through Cano classification. Finally, 9 more important indicators were selected.

There are various theories about the crisis. These include theories of Marx, Keynes's theory of market failure, Austrian school. They confirmed that the existence of crisis in the capitalist system and consider it as a part of the capitalist system. The economists have tried to explain and design a system that before the crisis happen, policy makers should be aware of it possibility and crisis prevention policies should be implemented to prevent it. Therefore, this paper study an early warning system for identification of the financial crises (banking and currency). It would explained. the probability of future crisis, and an early warning system be able to send a signal before it happens. The first warning indicators, including GDP growth, inflation, real interest rate, stock price index, effective exchange rate and diversion of formal and informal exchange rate, the ratio of foreign debt to foreign asset, the ratio of current account to GDP are selected by the signal approach and then these variables are measured by the logit model and neural network. Therefore, according to our estimates, the years of 1980, 1987, 1994, 1995 are selected as the crises years in Iran's economy. indicators such as GDP growth, real interest rates, inflation and exchange rate deviation are identified as early warning indicators.

There have been many studies on the effect of the central bank independence and monetary policy on inflation, implying that more independent central banks are more successful in taming inflation. The same theoretical background could be applied to examine the effect of central bank independence on the real sector of the economy. We examine the relationship between the central bank independence and the stability of economic growth by using LVAW index for 43 countries over 1989-2000. Our empirical results show a negative relationship between the central bank independence and deviations of economic growth. Therefore, more independent central banks provide better economic environment for stable economic growth.