نشریه تحقیقات سیاسی و بین المللی
پیاپی 32 (پاییز 1396)

Interactions and relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia as two regional powers are affecting the regional development and themselves. These interactions are important and one can predict the future trend of these foreign policy directions and formulate desirable and timely policies and make appropriate decisions. The present paper wants to use a combination of methodology of scenario writing of James Dytor and second step analysis to predict the trend, events and future scenario of Iran and Saudi Arabia relations in order to have a better planning and policy making. The main question raised by the paper is "what are the future scenario of coming decade of Iran and Saudi Arabia relations?" By understanding the events and the driving force which strengthen the relations and obstacles which impedes the relations one comes to the conclusion that the scenario of straining relations is more probable and the scenario of cooperation is having list possibility. Besides that the scenario of breaking our war or conflict is also probable depending on factors which strengthen the driving force. Therefore, taking into consideration the above scenarios it is necessary that the political leaders in their strategic planning adopt the pattern of cooperation and constructive interaction. They should strengthen the cultural and ideological drivers and encourage the regional countries to further cooperation scenario.

For the examination of national power it is necessary to evaluate and calculate different economic, social, political, territorial and cultural factors of a country. Understanding and measurement of the national power of countries for determining their status and geopolitical weight has been the focus of attention of scientists and political observers. It can be said that there is a direct relation between the national power of a country and their participation in international scene. The purpose of the present paper is to study and evaluate the national power (both hard and soft power) of the five littoral states of Persian Gulf neighboring Iran. They are the United Arab Emirate, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain. The main question raised by the paper is “what is the power structure of these five countries neighboring Iran. The hypothesis is that the national determinants of power of the selected countries of the West Asia region keeps these countries at three levels; namely United Arab Emirate-Qatar, Kuwait-Oman and Bahrain. The methodology used in the paper is descriptive-analytical based on library materials. The finding of the study shows that the power structure of the five selected countries places them at three levels of power, in the first level of power is United Arab Emirate and Qatar, and in the second level is Kuwait and Oman and at the third level is Bahrain.

Nowadays the security of energy is one of the most important dimensions of national security and focus of attention of all states. Iran for the reason of having rich natural gas resources and special geopolitical location has great potential in international gas trade through pipeline. The purpose of the present paper is to explain the challenges that Iran is facing for providing security of energy through cross border pipelines. The basic point is what are the most important challenges which Iran is facing in natural gas trade through cross border pipelines and what are the solution for managing these challenges? The descriptive-analytical examination of the issue shows that Iran is facing challenges in three sectors. These challenges are the security of supply, demand and transit, but the most important among these three is the security of demand. In the direction of maintaining demand and diversification of it, the suitable solution is the increase in attraction of foreign investment and transfer of technical know-how, readiness to increase supply in emergency situation when the demand suddenly increases and subsiding the international disputes in supply of natural gas.

The borders of many countries of the world are in the shape of waterways and rivers and unlike the land borders river water borders due to their complexity are creating more tension and crisis among the states. Many observers call the twenty first century as the hydro-politic era. It is due to the fact that shortage of water resources will lead to numerous conflicts and war among different countries. The climate change, occurrence of long period of drought, expansion of development plan in agriculture and industry in border areas, the increase in urban population are among the most important factors leading to intensification of disputes on border rivers. In Central Asia region, the flow of two important rivers of Amu Darya and Syrdarya along with their sub-branches have created several problems and challenges among the five countries region. In fact after the disintegration of Soviet Union the countries of Central Asia region inherited the wrong management regime of the water resources. The present article with a descriptive-analytical method wants to study the hydro-politic disputes of the countries of Amu Darya and Syr Darya basin and attempt to analyze the most important grounds and causes of the intensification of the conflict on common rivers. The finding of the study shows the divergent interest of the countries located on upstream and downstream and improper management of the problem, construction of several dams, climate changes, intervention of the regional and extra-regional powers, are among the important causes of differences on common water resources.

The relations between China and the United States may be the most complex and the most controversial relations among the big powers. These relations are affected by numerous variables and in many cases have been opposite and unpredictable. China is a representative of the newly emerged powers and the United States is the representative of traditional powers. They have been considered as two rival and conflicting powers in world policies of the twenty first century. These complicated relations and China's emerging as a world power and the consequent repercussion of it is important in international system. Understanding the security strategies of these two countries in geostrategic and geopolitical region of the world will guide us about future prospect of international system. The present article tries to use an analytical model that is a moderation of the model of structural realism of Kenneth Waltz and raises this question that "what is China's security strategy against the geopolitical movements of the United States in geostrategic areas?" It is seen that China's security strategy is having four behavioral models of hard and soft balance, hard trail and soft trail which is based on relative strength, relative security and relative ideology. The methodology used in the paper is descriptive-analytical based on library sources.

The concept of global governance has become more prevalent and its meaning has been more complicated by the passage of time. While there is a perception that there should be some flexibility in the use of concepts in both theoretical and practical aspects because they are desirable and unavoidable yet it felt that there is conceptual disarray which hinders more fruitful discussions and the expansion of coherent theories of global governance. A more careful use of the term global governance is necessary to achieve the goal of theorizing it. Therefore the question is "whether we can treat global governance as a theory (let alone a dominant theory)?" The present article does not seek to clarify the concept but to reveal ambiguities around it. In this direction the discussion is divided into three parts: first the concept of global governance (definitions), second contending perspectives on global governance and the third empirical problems (global governance as a situation). The methodology used in the paper is descriptive-explanatory by using library sources.

With the increase of Iranian influence in Lebanon after the Islamic revolution it is necessary to examine the intelligent power of Islamic Republic of Iran in Lebanon. The issue of intelligent power which consists of soft and hard power has gained importance in present day world. In this regard Iran’s soft power in Lebanon has been materialized in the form of intelligent power. The present paper by a descriptive-analytical method and by the help of library sources deals with the above issue. The underlying hypothesis is that the soft power of Islamic Republic of Iran in Lebanon has turned into intelligent power due to presence of Hezbollah in real battle field and participation in parliamentary process in political scene of Lebanon. The question raised by the paper is “what is the impact of intelligent power of Islamic Republic of Iran on Lebanon Hezbollah and Shiites?” The finding of the study shows that the intelligent power of Islamic Republic of Iran has helped the Hezbollah to gain important victory in both sensitive parliamentary and battle field struggle.

“Theories of International Relations” written by Scott Burchill and Andrew Linklater is an endeavor for explaining foundation of the theories of IR. and to analyze the principles of each theory. This book is consisted of twelve chapters and tries to analyze the relations among actors in international relations. Although the philosophical approach of the writers cased ambiguity, and insufficient explanation about the great debates especially the methodological one can be considered as flaws of the book, but great logical order and good explanation about new approaches such as International ethics makes this book a suitable book for understanding theories of international Relations. In fact, the verity of the writers caused different ideas and thoughts to be gathered and analyzed in one masterpieces and a good introduction made it understandable for readers. The book is a comprehensive explanation about different approaches and theories in international relations and can be useful for post graduate students.