فصلنامه پژوهش های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی
پیاپی 29 (زمستان 1396)

New economies undergo significant short-run variations in aggregate output and employment. Understanding the causes of aggregate fluctuations is a central goal of macroeconomics. RBC models consider real shocks as the main cause of business cycles. Within RBC models, the purposes of this study are estimating the real shocks of Iran’s economy and investigating its effects on the economy’s fluctuations. For these purposes, a method that is introduced by McCallum (1989) has been applied during the years 1959-2014. According to the results presented in this study, the highest amount of persistency of the real shocks is related to the oil sector then to the agricultural sector. The variability of oil sector shocks is much more than the variability of agriculture sector shocks. A periodic manner with parallel and durable fluctuations can be seen in the shocks. Negative effects are more intense than positive effects. It seems, Iran’s economy undergoes five real business cycles in 56-year of the study. Also, the production fluctuations due to real shocks are a hump-shape process. These fluctuations peak after 1 or 2 years, then decline.

This study aims to measure the external efficiency of formal education and then evaluating the effects of economic growth in Iran during 1957 to 2012. External efficiency, is the responsibility of educational system to social system in term of individual, economic, political and cultural dimensions. The research method to measure the relative efficiency is the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method with the input-oriented and constant return to scale , and efficient units are ranked using Anderson-Peterson (AP). Using the econometric method GMM to evaluate the effect of the external efficiency of education on the economic growth. Results showed that in 85 percentages of examined years , external efficiency of education is acheived. inputs that affect respectively on the external efficiency are include educational equity, technology infrastructure, education expenditures and quality. Output that affect respectively on the external efficiency are include freedom, environment protection, family sustainability and establishment. For inefficient units, the most of output shortage related to security and maximum output surplus is for education expenditures. External efficiency of education, labor and capital have a positive effect on economic growth in Iran. External efficiency of education is the cause of economic growth.

Nowadays, human development play a key role in Development studies. The man is the main pillar of sustainable Development. Human Development Index has been the most popular indicator of development. Knowing the variables involved in the estimation of human development index is essential in choosing the appropriate model that can accurately measure the human development index. In this paper, we consider the uncertainty modeling framework for study of the factors that affect the human development index. For this purpose, we use the Bayesian model averaging which is appropriate with the assumption of model uncertainty.In this study, by estimating 960000 regression equations, five variables are identified as non-fragile variables which is mentioned as follows: Growth of oil revenues, growth of Government health expenditure, Growth of primary education, Inflation, capital stock. Other variables lost their effect in the presence of non--fragile variables. Therefore, it can be concluded that in order to raise the index of human development in the country, it is necessary to pay more attention to the mentioned variables

Due to the important role of economic globalization in income inequality of countries, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the non-linear impact of economic globalization on income inequality in Iran during 1979-2014. For this purpose, is used the smooth transition regression (STR) model. The estimated Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model supports a nonlinear threshold behavior in the relationship between economic globalization and income inequality in the country in a two regime structures with positive effect and a threshold level of about 26/15%. so that increases the intensity of this positive impact with crossing threshold level and entering the second regime.

There is no doubt that improving the level of social welfare, meeting the basic needs and achieving to high economic growth rate are the important aims of policy makers. On one hand, coinciding with the year in which codification and approval of 6th development program is on the agenda of parliament and government and on the other hand, lack of financial resources may lead to policy makers have encountered with the issue of identifying key sectors and evaluating importance of economic sectors. In this paper, for the first time we have studied the consequences of 10 percent shutdown in the health sector supply on output and value added of other sectors. For answering this question, we have applied partial extraction method which proposed by Dietzenbacher and Lahr (2013). In addition, we have investigated the dependency of health sector on other economic sectors by means of 10 percent partial extraction of sector’s supplies. Updated domestic Input-Output Tables in 2011 which aggregated in 19 sectors is the basis of calculation. The results show that first; the economy’s total value added was decreased 0,43 percent due to partial extraction (10 percent) of health sector. Second, public and private health sectors in comparison with other subsectors of health are more important because, the total value added of the economy was diminished 0,03 and 0,02 percent because of the reduction in their deliveries. Third, following partial extraction of health sector and its subsectors, the largest decreases in value added take place in the medical instruments, water, electrics and gas, other services and business services while public affairs and education and oil and gas, had the least changes in the value added that reflected low dependency of mentioned sectors on health sector. Fourth, the health sector is most dependent on the manufacturing sector and its value added decreased 0,3 percent by partial extraction on manufacturing sector.

This study models healthcare expenditure in household level with the aim of utilizing enough health goods and services in Iran. For this purpose, first suitable econometrics methods for health sector are investigated and then main determinants of households’ healthcare expenditure are introduced by using the sample selection model. Model estimation has been based on the socio-economic and demographic information of 38513 Iranian households, derived from household’s income- expenditure survey (HIES) in 2011. The results show that the increasing of household's members (children, youth and elderly) and women proportion, to be married of household's head, smoking, having health insurance and living in urban and more development areas encourage households to purchase health goods and services in respective market. On the other hand, household's healthcare expenditure will increase if household consumes more amount of Tobacco, family number, especially the number of elderly members is more and the larger proportion of family members belongs to women. Moreover, households that belong to middle income groups, and who have health insurance and their header is married spend higher expenditure to purchase the health goods and services. This result is true about households which have house; their members are more educated and live in urban areas and provinces where more developed in terms of health facilities.

By considering that the resources and accessible facilities are limited, achieving development, particularly high human development is important target in adjusting development plans; therefore in developing countries policy makers and planners are worried about recognition and analysis of accelerating factors in development process as well as diagnosis the barriers, which using of indexes and modern instruments to attain is necessary and evident. Human development is one of noticeable contexts for policy makers, planners and researchers which is measured by human development index (HDI). Criticisms of HDI and creation of nonparametric methods performance evaluation have caused evaluation of human development by applying data envelopment analysis (DEA). The lack of recognition of sources of inefficiency is one of the weakness points in traditional approach in DEA, hence in this paper separation efficiency approach is used, which is based on according to process and network data envelopment analysis (NDEA). In this article by considering a two stage process for human development, which is inclusive making infrastructures and getting results, relative efficiency for human development is measured in all provinces in a five year period from 2010 to 2014. The results of research highlighted that Tehran and Alborz provinces had high efficiency in human development and on the other side in terms of human development compared to the remained provinces, Kurdistan, Mazandaran and Lorestan are ranked that at the end of table. Total efficiency separation illustrated inefficiency in preparing human development infrastructures had more effect in total efficiency.

In this study, the effect of horizontal and vertical diversification policies on economic growth in Iran is investigated. The approach applied is Markov Switching regimes, for annual data series 1979-2015. The growth rates of horizontal and vertical diversification, consume expenditure, and investment as well as inflation rate are the variables which are used in this study. The results show that inflation rate, consume expenditure and vertical diversification growth have positive and significant effect, in both 0 and1 regimes, on economic growth. Furthermore, the horizontal diversification and investment growth also have positive effect on economic growth but only in 0 regime. Additionally, the predicted economic growth rate under three proposed scenarios, for 2016 and 2017 years, show that we can reach 8 percentage as medium growth rate in the sixth development program with emphasizing on vacant capacity, especially horizontal and vertical diversification policies

This study examines the impact of intellectual capital on changes in productivity and efficiency in Iran’s insurance firms for period 2008-2013. First, it estimated the Malmquist productivity index (MPI) and efficiency index with data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach. Second, this paper examines the impact of intellectual capital components (human capital, structural capital, financial capital) on changes in productivity and efficiency through panel data regressions.
Our MPI findings indicate that most of insurance firms experienced decrease in productivity over the sample period; which it is due to decline in efficiency. The fixed effects estimation results reveal that intellectual capital and its individual components have significantly positive impacts on changes in productivity and efficiency of insurance firms. We suggest that general insurers in Iran should invest in intellectual capital, including improving their managerial skills, to gain sustainable growth in productivity. The findings of this study may lead to a better understanding of the relative changes in total productivity of general insurance firms. By identifying changes in efficiency and productivity, better management decisions can be made to achieve greater productivity.

The aim of this study at first is to study the effective factors of FDI and then the estimation of these effects during 1983-2014. In this regard the causality relationship between FDI and political risk, GDP, trade openness index, inflation and exchange rate, has been investigated through Hsiao and Toda-Yamamoto tests. Then using a smooth transition regression model, the effect of determinants of foreign direct investment will estimated. In addition, results show that political risk, GDP and exchange rate are statistical cause of FDI, but trade openness index and inflation have no significant effect on foreign direct investment.In addition, the nonlinearity of model was also verified. The model showed that the FDI function can be investigated in the form of a structure with a two regime with threshold value of $ 2,000 million. Political risk in both regimes has a negative effect on foreign direct investment, but with the arrival to high regime, the sensitivity will be reduced. This relationship between the GDP and FDI is opposite.