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پژوهشهای روستایی - سال سوم شماره 3 (پیاپی 11، پاییز 1391)

فصلنامه پژوهشهای روستایی
سال سوم شماره 3 (پیاپی 11، پاییز 1391)

  • تاریخ انتشار: 1391/10/09
  • تعداد عناوین: 9
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  • بهرام کریمی، سیدعلی بدری، محمد سلمانی، مجتبی قدیری معصوم صفحه 1
    در اغلب کشورهای در حال توسعه، گرایش برنامه ریزان به تمرکززدایی فضایی، کاهش نابرابری های منطقه ای و دوگانگی های شهری- روستایی در دهه های اخیر، به اتخاذ راهبردهای متفاوتی در این زمینه انجامیده، که از مهم ترین آنها تبدیل روستاها به شهر و تقویت آن ها بوده است. پژوهش حاضر با تکیه بر مطالعه در بخش و شهر دیلمان، در پی ارزیابی تاثیر سیاست تبدیل روستا به شهر در توسعه مناطق کوهستانی در زمینه هایی چون رونق اقتصادی، بهبود شاخص های اجتماعی- فرهنگی و ارتقای شرایط کالبدی- محیطی است. نوع پژوهش حاضر، کاربردی و روش انجام آن توصیفی- تحلیلی است. روش گردآوری اطلاعات به دو صورت کتابخانه ای و میدانی است. تمرکز اصلی پژوهش در بخش مطالعه میدانی بر پرسشنامه است. داده های جمع آوری شده از طریق پرسشنامه پس از کدگذاری و انتقال به نرم افزار رایانه ای SPSS، تجزیه و تحلیل گردید. برای آزمون فرضیات، از آزمون های یو مان- ویتنی و t تک نمونه ای استفاده شده است. نتایج آزمون یو مان- ویتنی نشان می دهد که بین نظر دو گروه از پاسخگویان در مورد نقش تبدیل دیلمان به شهر در توسعه محدوده مطالعاتی تفاوت معنی داری وجود دارد. نتایج آزمون t گویای این واقعیت است که تبدیل دیلمان به شهر در رونق اقتصادی، بهبود شاخص های اجتماعی- فرهنگی و ارتقای وضعیت کالبدی- محیطی تاثیر چندانی نداشته است. بنابراین، نتایج پژوهش بر عدم موفقیت سیاست تبدیل روستا به شهر در توسعه منطقه ای، در نمونه مورد مطالعه دلالت دارد.
    کلیدواژگان: بخش دیلمان، ارزیابی، توسعه روستایی، ارتقای روستا به شهر، شهر کوچک
  • فرزاد کریمی، مصطفی احمدوند، فرشاد کریمی صفحه 33
    توسعه صنعتی در نواحی روستایی دربردارنده پیامدهایی است که بی توجهی به آنها، نتایج ناگواری را به بار می آورد. در پژوهش حاضر به سنجش درجه تاثیرگذاری کارخانه ذوب آهن کردستان بر توسعه نواحی روستایی پیرامون پرداخته می شود. بدین منظور از روش توصیفی- تحلیلی با رویکرد مقایسه ای بهره گرفته شده است. جامعه آماری پژوهش، روستاهای پیرامون کارخانه اند که بر اساس فاصله، در سه لایه 5، 10 و 15کیلومتری از کارخانه طبقه بندی گردیده اند. سپس، با هدف تعیین محدوده احتمالی تاثیرگذاری، از روش نمونه گیری گلوله برفی استفاده شد و در مجموع 20 روستا شناسایی شدند. در هر روستا، با انتخاب 15 درصد از روستاییان (نخبگان روستایی)، به بررسی و مطالعه پرداخته شد. برای جمع آوری داده ها، پرسش نامه محقق ساخته به کار رفت. برای تعیین اعتبار ابزار پژوهش نیز از روش تحلیل عاملی، و به منظور تعیین پایایی آن از هم سانی درونی به روش آلفای کرونباخ استفاده شد. آماره KMO (510‎/0 تا 690‎/0) و ضریب آلفای کرونباخ (610‎/0 تا 864‎/0) به دست آمده، از بهینگی پرسش نامه حکایت می کند. برای تعیین درجه تاثیرگذاری کارخانه ذوب آهن بر روستاهای پیرامون روش ترکیبی تاپسیس و آنتروپی به کار رفت، و در مدل سازی درجه تاثیرگذاری، نرم افزار Arc-GIS 9.3 راهگشا گردید. یافته ها نشان داد که محدوده واقعی تاثیر کارخانه مورد مطالعه، در هشت روستای پیرامون خلاصه می گردد. کارخانه بیشترین تاثیر کاهشی را بر مشارکت روستاییان در پروژه های توسعه روستایی گذاشته، در حالی که بیشترین تاثیر افزایشی در بخش زیرساختی رخ نموده است. ن نتایج حاصل از تاپسیس و آنتروپی مشخص می ساخت، لیکن بیشینه تاثیر آن بر دو روستای کریم آبادعلی-وردی و یالغوزآغاج متمرکز بوده است.
    کلیدواژگان: توسعه روستایی، صنعتی سازی، تاپسیس، قروه، کارخانه ذوب آهن
  • مهدی پورطاهری، محمدرضا بخشی، عبدالرضا رکن الدین افتخاری، صمد رحیمی سوره صفحه 59
    هدف تحقیق حاضر شناسایی و ارزیابی الگویی برای پیش بینی موفقیت یا شکست طرح های پیشنهادی سرمایه گذاری کشاورزی در مناطق روستایی است. متغیرهای پیش بینی کننده، عبارت اند از مولفه های محیط سرمایه گذاری و ویژگی های پروژه. براساس نوشتارهای تخصصی در این زمینه، شبکه عصبی چندلایه پرسپترون با الگوریتم یادگیری پس انتشار خطا، تکنیک و الگوی نسبتا مناسبی برای تبیین مسئله به شمار می آید. برای ارزیابی کارایی الگو از شاخص میانگین مربعات خطا، منحنی ROC و شاخص صحت پیش بینی استفاده شده است. ارزیابی الگو مشخص می سازد که شبکه عصبی با 24 نرون در لایه پنهان می تواند حدود 5‎/77 درصد از نمونه ها را به درستی پیش بینی و طبقه بندی کند. براساس نتایج به دست آمده از داده های آزمون شبکه، الگوی ارائه شده توان بیشتری برای پیش بینی و طبقه بندی نمونه های ناموفق در مقایسه با نمونه های موفق دارد (2‎/79 درصد در برابر 75 درصد). همچنین در این تحقیق، به منظور ارزیابی قابلیت کاربرد شبکه، 31 نمونه جدید به صورت آف لاین به شبکه ارائه شدند. نتیجه نشان می دهد که الگوی ارائه شده می تواند حدود 5‎/64 درصد از نمونه ها را به درستی طبقه بندی کند. با الگوی طراحی شده می توان احتمال شکست یا موفقیت هر یک از طرح ها و پروژه های جدید را براساس متغیرهای پیش بینی کننده تخمین زد؛ و می توان آن را به همراه دانش تصمیم گیرهای متولیان توسعه روستایی و کشاورزی و مدیران موسسات مالی و اعتباری، به عنوان ابزاری مناسب برای انتخاب پروژه ها و طرح های بهینه برای سرمایه گذاری و ارائه تسهیلات به آنها، به کار گرفت. مراحل مختلف آموزش، آزمون، اعتبارسنجی و کاربرد شبکه و یا اصطلاحا شبیه سازی شبکه- با استفاده از نرم افزار MATLAB انجام شده است.
    کلیدواژگان: طبقه بندی، بنگاه، راک، پیش خور، سرمایه
  • محمدعلی فیض پور، گلسا صالحی فیروزآبادی صفحه 87
    یکی از دلایلی که برای تبیین مهاجرت از مناطق روستایی به مناطق شهری و به خصوص در مراحل گذار اقتصادی در کشورهای درحال توسعه ارائه گردیده، دستیابی به شغل و شغل بهتر است. این موضوع بر اساس داده های اقتصاد ایران نیز مصداق دارد و با مدل های ارائه شده برای مهاجرت و به ویژه مدل هریس و تودارو، که دلیل عمده مهاجرت از روستا را دستیابی به شغل بهتر و درنتیجه درآمد انتظاری بالاتر در مناطق شهری می داند، تطابق دارد. بر این اساس، تفاوت سطح توسعه بازار کار در مناطق روستایی نسبت به مناطق شهری و روند تغییرات آن می تواند شاخصی از روند و شدت مهاجرت بین این مناطق را به دست دهد و از این رو، شناخت و رتبه بندی مناطق روستایی از حیث توسعه بازار کار اهمیت می یابد. تعیین و بررسی سطح توسعه بازار کار مناطق روستایی به تفکیک استان های کشور، هدف اصلی مقاله حاضر را تشکیل می دهد. برای تعیین سطح توسعه بازار کار مناطق روستایی، از چهار شاخص اساسی نرخ بیکاری، سهم جمعیت دارای اشتغال ناقص، سهم اشتغال در بخش خصوصی و سهم اشتغال در بخش صنعت استفاده گردیده و برای تلفیق آنها از روش های تحلیل چندمتغیره تحلیل عاملی و برترین پیشنهاد از راه حل ایده آل (TOPSIS)‎ در دوره زمانی برنامه چهارم توسعه استفاده شده است. در مجموع، نتایج این پژوهش نشان می دهد که سطح توسعه بازار کار مناطق روستایی استان ها در طول برنامه چهارم توسعه تغییر چندانی نیافته و این درحالی است که همان تغییرات اندک در میزان توسعه یافتگی مناطق نیز به روش تعیین آن بستگی داشته است.
    کلیدواژگان: شاخص های بازار کار، مناطق روستایی، روش تحلیل عاملی، روش تاپسیس، توسعه بازار کار
  • حسن دارابی، بهادر افشیدکیا صفحه 111
    بر مبنای رویکرد تاثیرات پروانه ای، اگر شرایط مناسب ایجاد شود، حرکتی ضعیفی چون بال پروانه، منجر به تحولاتی بزرگ خواهد شد. با الهام از این ایده، در پژوهش حاضر تلاش شده است به تحلیل کانون های ایجاد دانش در جریان یک پروژه موردی پرداخته شود و با ایجاد مدل تحلیلی خاص حاصل ترکیب دو مدل نانوکا - تاکئوچی با DPSIRاین موضوع مورد بررسی قرار گیرد. بر این اساس، کانون های تولید دانش در فرآیند تهیه و اجرای طرح هادی به عنوان مصداق طرح های عمران روستایی شناسایی شده و چگونگی تولید و تبدیل دانش سازمانی و نحوه مدیریت فرآیندهای آن تبیین شده است. پژوهش حاضر با بهره گیری از آموزه های رشته های مدیریت دانش و برنامه ریزی جغرافیای روستایی در مورد اجرای طرح های هادی روستایی به نگارش درآمده است. به منظور گردآوری داده های لازم 30 نفر متخصص به عنوان خبره مرتبط با نظام برنامه ریزی، طراحی، اجرا و نظارت طرح های مذکور انتخاب شدند. صحت نتایج به دست آمده از پرسشنامه ها با ضریب کرونباخ بررسی گردید که در پرسشنامه یکم و دوم معادل 84‎/0 و 79‎/0 به دست آمد. در نهایت نظام موجود برای شناسایی کانون ها و کسب دانش مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. بررسی صورت گرفته نشان داد که شکافی عمیق بین دانش ضمنی و عینی وجود دارد و نظام موجود به صورت گذرا و مقطعی به دانش تولیدی در کانون های دانش توجه دارد. به همین دلیل حجم بالایی از دانش ناخودآگاه از نظام و فرآیند تدوین و اجرای پروژه حذف می شود ک می تواند با ایجاد تغییرات شگرف بستر تحولات مهمی را در فرآیندهای طرح هادی فراهم سازد.
    کلیدواژگان: تولید دانش، اثر پروانه ای، کانون، فرآیندهای تبدیل دانش، طرح هادی روستایی
  • فضیله خانی، شهلا چوبچیان صفحه 135
    مکان های روستایی همانند دیگر مکان های جغرافیایی فضاهایی به شدت جنسیتی هستند و تمامی رفتارها و عملکردها بازتابی از نگرش ها، عقاید و دیدگاه های در خصوص جایگاه و نقش ها و وظایف دو جنس است. پژوهش حاضر با تکیه بر تحلیل جنسیتی به دنبال شناخت تاثیر فضاهای جغرافیایی حاکم بر روستاها بر نوع نگرش به کار زنان و مشارکت آنان است. روش به کار رفته در تحقیق، پیمایشی توصیفی است و داده ها از طریق پرسشنامه محقق ساخته گردآوری شده است. پایایی پرسشنامه با آلفای کرونباخ محاسبه شد و با رقم 88‎/0 برای گویه های مربوط به مشارکت زنان، با رقم 93‎/0 برای نگرش مردان به کار زنان و با رقم 90‎/0 برای نگرش زنان به کار خود، مورد تایید قرار گرفت. جامعه آماری تحقیق، زنان و مردان ساکن در روستای دهستان مریدان از توابع شهرستان لنگرود و دهستان هولی از توابع شهرستان پاوه بوده اند. از مجموع جامعه آماری، 124 نفر از شهرستان لنگرود و 106 نفر از شهرستان پاوه از طریق فرمول کوکران به طور تصادفی ساده انتخاب شدند. نتایج و تحلیل آزمون ها در SPSS نشان داد که تفاوت معنی داری بین زنان شهرستان های لنگرود و پاوه در خصوص نگرش شان به حقوق اجتماعی و وظایف شان وجود دارد. هعلاوه بر این، در سطح 99 درصد تفاوت معنی داری بین نگرش مثبت مردان به فعالیت زنان در بین دو شهرستان دیده شد. باتوجه به متفاوت بودن محیط جغرافیایی دو منطقه مورد مطالعه که منجر به دو نوع معیشت متفاوت می شود فرضیه پژوهش مبنی بر تفاوت در نگرش های موجود در مورد کار و مشارکت زنان، تایید می شود.
    کلیدواژگان: پاوه، فضاهای روستایی، مناسبات جنسیتی، لنگرود، مشارکت زنان
  • خدیجه بوذرجمهری، رضا خسروبیگی*، علی اکبر تقیلو صفحه 159

    کشاورزی پایدار در دانش بهره برداری از منابع در فرایند تولید خلاصه می شود. شکل گیری این نظام مستلزم فراهم سازی بسترهای لازم برای آموزش و انعطاف پذیری فکری و تحرک اندیشه در بهره برداران است. رهیافت مشارکت می تواند به عنوان عامل موثر، نقش مهمی در ایجاد دانش و شکل گیری نگرش پایدار در کشاورزان ایفا کند. مقاله حاضر سعی دارد با رویکردی جامع و با روش توصیفی- تحلیلی به بررسی و تحلیل نقش مشارکت در کشاورزی پایدار 14 سکونتگاه روستایی دهستان ایجرود بالا در شهرستان ایجرود بپردازد. جمع آوری داده ها از طریق پرسشنامه، حجم نمونه 330 نفر و تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها با استفاده از آزمون های مناسب SPSS انجام شده است. بررسی ها نشان می دهد که سطح مشارکت با میانگین 27‎/2 پایین تر از حد مورد انتظار است. در این بین نتایج به دست آمده مشخص می سازند که بین آگاهی و دانش، تعهد و مسئولیت پذیری و تصمیم گیری عقلایی ارتباط مستقیمی برقرار است، به گونه ای که این سازوکار یا مکانیسم ارتباط مستقیم مشارکت و کشاورزی پایدار را توجیه می کند. ضریب همبستگی 557‎/0 با سطح معناداری 038‎/0 در آزمون همبستگی اسپیرمن موید این امر است. بر همین اساس به منظور بهبود وضعیت کشاورزی پایدار در روستاها، توجه به مقوله مشارکت به عنوان فراگرد تولید دانش اجتناب ناپذیر می نماید.

    کلیدواژگان: دانش و آگاهی، مشارکت، کشاورزی پایدار، تصمیم گیری عقلایی، تعهد و مسئولیت پذیری
  • رضوان قمبرعلی، عبدالحمید پاپ زن، نشمیل افشارزاده صفحه 187
    بخش کشاورزی یکی از مهم ترین بخش های اقتصاد در کشور به شمار می آید و به شدت به تغییرات آب و هوا وابسته است. تغییرات آب وهوا بر الگوهای کشت، دسترسی به آب و تا اندازه ای بر عملکرد محصول تاثیر می گذارد. هدف از مطالعه حاضر بررسی عوامل موثر بر به کارگیری استراتژی های سازگاری از سوی کشاورزان در برابر تغییرات آب وهوایی است. این تحقیق از نوع توصیفی-همبستگی است که به روش پیمایشی انجام گرفته است. جامعه آماری این تحقیق 5764 بهره بردار کشاورز بودند که با توجه به جدول کرجسی و مورگان (1970)، حجم نمونه 362 نفر تعیین شد و برای دستیابی دقیق به افراد مورد مطالعه، از روش نمونه گیری تصادفی طبقه ای متناسب استفاده گردید. نتایج توصیفی مطالعه نشان داد که تعداد زیادی از کشاورزان معتقدند که دما افزایش و بارش کاهش یافته است و اکثریت پاسخگویان عملیات مدیریت کشاورزی را در پاسخ به تغییرات شرایط آب وهوایی تغییر داده اند. به علاوه نتایج تحلیل رگرسیون لجستیک نیز نشان داد که 6 عامل تجربه کشاورزی، دسترسی به اعتبارات، اندازه زمین، دسترسی به خدمات ترویج، حاصلخیزی خاک و دارا بودن شغل جانبی به ترتیب به عنوان مهم ترین عامل های تاثیرگذار بر به کارگیری استراتژی های سازگاری شناسایی شدند.
    کلیدواژگان: کرمانشاه، استراتژی های سازگاری، تغییر آب وهوا، بارندگی، کشاورزی
  • حسین دانش مهر*، وریا صفری، علیرضا کریمی صفحه 209

    در زمان حاضر گردشگری به عنوان یکی از بزرگ ترین و متنوع ترین صنایع دنیا مطرح است و رشد سریع آن، تغییرات اجتماعی، اقتصادی و محیطی فراوانی را به دنبال داشته است. گردشگری روستایی نیز به عنوان جزئی از این صنعت، می تواند نقش موثری در توسعه ملی و به تبع آن توسعه منطقه ای و محلی ایفا کند. در مقاله حاضر به بررسی نقش طبیعت گردی و آثار آن در توسعه مناطق روستایی، با تاکید بر روستای اورامان تخت پرداخته شده است. بدین منظور، بر اساس چارچوب مفهومی و نظری و نیز مطالعات میدانی انجام شده، اقدام به تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها از طریق تکنیک SWOT گردید. مطالعات میدانی این تحقیق شامل مصاحبه و پرکردن پرسشنامه با سه گروه بود: خانوارهای ساکن در روستای اورامان تخت، و گردشگران و مسولان نهادهای مرتبط با گردشگری شهرستان سروآباد. نتایج تحلیل نشان می دهد که در منطقه مورد مطالعه، مولفه چشم اندازهای زیبا و منحصر به فرد روستا به همراه باغ ها و فضاهای سبز مهم ترین نقطه قوت بوده است، مولفه فقدان برنامه ریزی و سرمایه گذاری دولتی در این منطقه عمده ترین نقطه ضعف آن، مولفه توجه بیشتر مسئولان به برنامه ریزی و سرمایه گذاری در منطقه مهم ترین فرصت بیرونی، و سرانجام مولفه نبود مدیریت آگاه به موضوعات اکوتوریستی عمده ترین تهدید خارجی بوده است. بر همین اساس بدل ساختن هر نقطه ضعف به قوت و نیز تبدیل تهدیدها به فرصت ها می تواند منجر به افزایش اشتغال و درآمد به همراه حفظ محیط-زیست و در نهایت توسعه پایدار منطقه گردد.

    کلیدواژگان: طبیعت گردی، استراتژی ها، اورامان تخت، تکنیک SWOT، توسعه روستایی
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  • Bahram Karimi, Seyyed Ali Badri, Mohammad Salmani, Mojtaba Ghadiri Masoum Page 1
    Introduction
    Urbanization in developing countries has caused many problems, such as increase in urbanization, lack of housing and employment, migration and stagnation of villages, and promoting villages to towns is one of the main policies to reduce these problems. Development of small and intermediate urban centers has, for the past several years, been canvassed by many scholars and international aid agencies as an appropriate middle course which combines the advantages of urban as well as rural development, without the shortcomings of excessive metropolitan growth or of the wide dispersal of limited resources in scattered rural villages too small to support basic services. Since the late 1970s and early 1980s, there has been a re-thinking of the nature and the impact of rural-urban linkages, with much emphasis placed upon the mutual dependency of rural and urban areas, and the critical role of town and city networks in the process of regional and local economic development. While some of the regional development literature tend to assume that small towns can be an almost ‘magic bullet’, their roles and functions need to be understood within the wider context of national, regional and international urban systems and policies. In Iran during the late half a century, one of the effects of urbanization on urban and population structure is the increase in the number of towns through promoting villages to towns, because there is a positive prospect about the role of promoting villages to towns in regional and local development.
    Methodology
    This research, based on the studies on Dailaman district, is going to assess the promotion of villages to towns in mountain regions from dimensions like economic prosperity, improvement of social and cultural indicators and promoting physical and environmental conditions. The type of the research is applied research and its method is descriptive-analytical. The sample (n=485) was selected by stratified random sampling technique from statistical society (N=3650); the sample consists of 192 heads of households from Dailaman town and 293 heads of households from its hinterland. Required information was collected through library studies, direct observations and questionnaires. The main tool for data collection was a researcher-designed questionnaire that had been produced according to research objectives. For analyzing the data, statistical methods such as Mean, Mann-Whitney Test and One-Sample T Test have been used.
    Results
    To achieve the purpose, three dimensions and 82 indicators were used such that 24 indicators were used to assess economical dimensions, 34 indicators to assess social-cultural dimensions and 24 indicators to assess physical-environmental dimensions. The Results of the research indicate that there is a meaningful difference between the views of the two groups about the functions of promoting villages to towns in regional development, and the promotion of villages to towns hasnt succeeded in economic prosperity, improvement of social-cultural indicators and promoting physical-environmental conditions in the region.
    Conclusion
    In the case study, three important functions that a town can execute in its region have been assessed. The results of this research show that the promotion of villages to towns in regional development hasnt been successful. Most of the researches that have been done about the functions of small towns in the development of mountain regions concluded that these towns havent been successful in obtaining their objectives; for example researches of Bajracharya in Nepal (1995) and Saraee and Eskandari Sani in Iran (2007). The results of these researches confirm the viewpoints of Hinderink and Titus (2002), Satterthwaite and Tacoli (2003) and Tacoli (2006) who believe the positive functions of small towns shouldnt be generalized and they arent magic bullets. So the policy of promoting rurals to towns is not consistent with UFRD strategy in the region. Although the promotion of the village to town hasnt been successful in gaining its objectives in the studied region, it is inevitable, because some villages have the conditions of being towns, such as having a certain population. So it is necessary to make guidelines and criteria for promoting villages to towns. These guidelines and criteria should be flexible and in accordance with regional conditions and tendencies. So the policy of promoting rurals to towns is not consistent with UFRD strategy in the region. Although the promotion of the village to town hasnt been successful in gaining its objectives in the studied region, it is inevitable, because some villages have the conditions of being towns, such as having a certain population. So it is necessary to make guidelines and criteria for promoting villages to towns. These guidelines and criteria should be flexible and in accordance with regional conditions and tendencies.
    Keywords: Evaluation, Promotion of villages to towns, Dailaman District, Town, Rural Settlement
  • Farzad Karimi, Mostafa Ahmadvand, Farshad Karimi Page 33
    Introduction
    The historical experience of development process in developed countries revealed that rural development is a basic requirement for national development and that it should be considered and given high priority. Accordingly in Iran, the government also paid more attention to rural development in recent years. In this regard, different methods and approaches were implemented due to social and economic development of rural regions. A large number of these strategies and industrial projects focus on the development of rural areas. One of the main strategies for development is industrialization and establishment of industry in rural regions. These industrial projects have been initiated to alleviate poverty and unemployment, and to deal with the insufficient food supply. Although these projects were assumed to be beneficial for rural people, they often had unintended negative impacts on the environment and local communities. Evidence suggests that while sustainability is a crucial and independent dimension of development, it has most often been neglected when planning these industrial projects. These projects have been faced with numerous challenges such as a growing sense of rural households’ dissatisfaction, negative attitudes, and conflicts with the industrial projects, un-sustainability and in many instances complete failure. Therefore, in recent years, industrial rural development projects in Iran and in many developing countries have been criticized for their detrimental effects on various aspects, and on sustainability at large. Therefore, there is a widespread consensus about the importance of the assessment of the impact of industrial projects on rural areas. Subsequently, in line with the triple bottom line approach for sustainable development, the impact assessment is of particular importance in considering the sustainability of industrial rural development projects. In this regard, the Kurdistan Iron Smelting Factory, as a great industry in Kurdestan province, was established in 2003 in a high-potential agricultural region. Establishing the factory would potentially cause many social, economic and environmental changes in surrounding rural areas. Measurement of the degree of these impacts would help policy makers and project planners to better understand the projects’ impacts. Therefore, the objects of this study were: • To display the impacts of Kurdistan Iron Smelting Factory on the development of surrounding rural areas; • To determine the scope of the impacts of Kurdistan Iron Smelting Factory on the development of surrounding rural areas; and • To model the range and levels of the impacts of Kurdistan Iron Smelting Factory.
    Methodology
    The study followed exploratory quantitative research methodology. Also the research method was descriptive-analytic in the form of comparative approach. The comparative design is an accepted research technique for exploring impacts that cannot be manipulated experimentally. The statistical population of the study was the rural people who lived in the villages surrounding the factory. The villages were categorized in three group distances of 5, 10, and 15 kilometers from the factory, using Arc-GIS software. Fifty four villages were affected by the factory and using snowball sampling, seven villages from the first, nine from the second, and four from the third layer were selected and investigated. The sample size of the rural people was determined using the sampling size table given by Patten. The final sample included 230 rural people selected from villages surrounding the factory. Accordingly, 15% of the rural people in each village participated in this study. Face-to-face interviews were conducted to collect data using a questionnaire containing open and closed questions. In order to make the questionnaire, a complete list of the items regarding the impacts was developed. The impact items were categorized in 11 impact criteria by a panel of experts. The criteria include: demographic characteristics, structure, perceived wellbeing, social capital, social participation, social structure development, quality of life, agriculture, economic conditions, conservation of community resources, and life pattern and model. In Total, 86 sub-impacts were investigated using environmental impact assessment (EIA). A panel of experts confirmed the face validity of the questionnaire.
    Results
    In order to determine the reliability of the questionnaire, internal contingency by Cronbach’s Alpha value was implemented and the KMO coefficient (0.510 to 0.690) and Cronbach’s Alpha coefficient (0.610 to 0.864) also confirmed the questionnaire. All statistical analyses were performed using SPSS statistical package (version 17.5 for Windows). In order to determine the degree of the impacts of the Iron Smelting Factory on surrounding villages, descriptive analysis and entropy method in combination with TOPSIS were used. For modeling the degree of the impacts, Arc-GIS software was used. Results showed that the range of factory's impacts include eight surrounding villages. The factory has decreased some of the criteria such as agriculture, conservation of community resources, social participation, social structure development, and social capital among which the greatest decrease pertained to the rural people's social participation. On the other hand, life pattern and model, quality of life, economic conditions, structure, perceived wellbeing, and demographic condition were improved by the Kurdistan Iron Smelting Factory.
    Conclusion
    The most increasing effect of the factory was on the structural condition. The coefficient of variation showed the profound imbalance between the impacts. Findings from TOPSIS and entropy also revealed that the factory had no significant influence on surrounding rural areas. Finally, the factory had the greatest impact only on the village of Karim-Abad Aliverdi and Yalghuoz-Aghaj.
    Keywords: Ghorveh, TOPSIS, Industrialization, Rural development, Iron smelting factory
  • Mehdi Poortaheri, Mohammadreza Bakhshi, Abdoreza Roknoddin Eftekhari, Samad Rahimi Soore Page 59
    Introduction
    Agriculture still constitutes the backbone of the rural economy and is an engine of rural household income growth in developing countries. According to the evidence, agriculture sector has an important role also in rural economy in Islamic Republic of Iran. Thus, in order to promote rural economy, rural development programs and policies have been focused on agricultural investments. Although the focus was on agriculture, investment in agriculture has not been completely successful and has been faced with challenges in recent years. In particular, in Zanjan Province, most agricultural investments have been from Small and Medium Agricultural Enterprises (SMAEs) development over the period of 2005-2010. The facts indicate that SMAEs development has not been completely successful, and so, alongside favored SMAEs projects, there are some unsuccessful SMAEs projects. Therefore, there are two groups of investment projects (successful, failed). Failure is resulted in losses of resources and it has high costs for the firm, the society and finally the country’s economy, so, in order to prevent losses of resources and for the best resource allocation, Success/failure projects should be recognized and separated beforehand. This study aims to introduce a pattern for recognizing and predicting failure of agricultural enterprise projects by classifying failed projects from non-failed projects based on predictors’ variables. Therefore, there is a binary classification problem in this research. Neural Network (NN) has been widely used to investigate classification problems, and NN presents several advantages compared to traditional methods such as logic and discriminate analysis. Among NN models, Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) is the most common neural network for binary classification problems like failure/success project prediction. In addition, based on a review of the literature, Investment Climate (IC), project properties, and individual characteristic of investor are effective factors on enterprise growth, therefore they can be used as predictors of each project’s failure/success.
    Methodology
    This study used literature survey methods to investigate the key predictive variables that affect performance and survival of agricultural enterprises and can be used to identify causes and develop models to predict project failure. Area of this study is the rural areas of Zanjan province, which is one of the 31 provinces in Iran and is located in the western-north part of the national territory. The data set of this study consists of a sample size of 231 agricultural investment projects that are situated in rural area; in addition, owners of the projects were introduced to receive loans from banks. The data sources are Statistical Center of Iran and Former Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs. Based on a review of the literature, we used Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network based on Back Propagation algorithm with one hidden layer, for building forecasting model. Inputs of Network is finalized of 16 predictors/ independent variables and network output is a categorical variable that classifies projects into two groups (success=1, failure =0). To implement network, the Neural Network Toolbox in Matlab was used in this paper. In order to implement and evaluate the network, 231 sample cases (projects) were divided into four subsets: 139 cases for Network Training, 46 for Testing, 46 for Validation, and 31 cases as New Input/Data in the real world. The training approach selected was the Batch updating method and optimized algorithm of SCG. The activation functions were selected to be sigmoid. Efficiency of the NN was identified by using MSE, ROC curve, and, the error percentage, measured as the percentage of wrongly classified cases.
    Results
    Findings, based on a review of the literature, indicate that Multilayer Perceptron NN with Back Propagation algorithm and one hidden layer is an appropriate tool for pattern recognition in binary classification problems. As a result, the network topology that was determined through trial and error experiments, and based on prediction accuracy and MSE criteria, the optimal network architecture has been identified in an iterated training process, including: an input layer with 16 nodes, a hidden layer with 24 nodes, and an output layer with 2 nodes. Results show that the overall accuracy is 77.5% with Type I and Type II errors recorded at 20.8% and 25%, respectively. Therefore, the acquired model can classify the failed projects better than the non-failed projects, with 79.2% against 75% accuracy rate. So, we can conclude that the model accuracy rate for bank and financial institute's managers, and, rural & agricultural policy makers is 79.2% and 75%, respectively. Furthermore, in order to further examine the developed model’s predictive ability in the real world, we evaluated the network ability by using 31 new samples via the Batch method. The results indicate that the overall accuracy rate of the model’s classification decreased to 64.5% when it was used for the new samples in the real world.
    Conclusion
    As we did, an NN model can estimate and produce the failure probability of each project based on predictors, and then it can help decision-makers to separate proper projects from improper projects and to allocate loans for projects whose success probability is high. So, we can conclude, not only for the knowledge and experiment of decision-makers, an NN tool can also be a useful tool for capital resources allocation in order for rural and agricultural development.
    Keywords: Enterprise, Classification, ROC, Capital, Feed forward
  • Mohammadali Feyzpoor, Golsa Salehi Firooz Abadi Page 87
    Introduction
    Although based on the development literature, achieving sustainable development is one of the most important aims of many developed as well as developing countries, institutional experts argue that development of various institutions could be the base point in these countries. Labor market, one of the most important institutions, with a comprehensive look at this market and the geographical characteristics of each country, is separable in both rural and urban sectors. In this regard, to achieve sustainable development in any country, focus on its regional development is necessary. Furthermore, access to better jobs is amongst the reasons of migration through rural areas into urban areas, especially in economic transition phase in developing countries. This subject is confirmed based on Iran’s economic data and is in concord with presented models for migration, particularly Harris-Todaro Model which assumes that the significant reason for migration from rural areas is to achieve a better occupation and higher revenue in urban areas. Therefore, the distinction between the level of development in labor market in rural and urban areas and its changing process can be considered as a manifestation of the process and of the rise of migration among these areas; therefore, identifying and ranking the development of rural areas and finding its indices, as well as ranking methods should be taken into considerable account from the viewpoint of the labor market. Contrary to several studies on rural development and labor market development (Bosanquet and Doeringer (1973), Piore (1980), Saint-Paul (1996), Mitra and Sambamoorthi (2000), Mitra, and Sambamoorthi (2000), Zhang, et al. (2004), Laszlo (2008), etc.), this study has investigated labor market development in rural areas with a distinct look and this is also due to special factors (unemployment rate, defective employment rate, employment share in private and industrial sectors) and methods (Factor analysis and TOPSIS) that have been used.
    Methodology
    For review and analysis of labor market development, identifying the market development indicators is essential and the Statistics Center of Iran (SCI), since the beginning of the Fourth Development Plan (2004), was the operator of the collection of statistics of the annual and seasonal labor force for the whole country and provinces in urban and rural areas. Hence, in this paper, data from the five-year plan, published in the reported results of labor market statistics for rural areas’ labor market development in Iran have been used. However, multiplicity of these indices and the fact that these indicators don’t necessarily have the same weight in labor market development, have led to neglect of indicators with high correlation that overlap in the first step and finding a weighing method for them in the next step. Therefore, in this study, the coefficients were calculated among the indicators and as a result, only four labor market indicators were selected out of 13 (unemployment rate, defective employment rate, employment share in private and industrial sectors). Factor analysis and TOPSIS with the Shannon entropy have also been used for weighing and combining these indices.
    Results
    Although the results of both methods (factor analysis and TOPSIS) were comparable to a large extent, it seems that the TOPSIS method has more advantages (mostly because of the ability of using weighed index), and therefore the results of this method are more acceptable.
    Conclusion
    With emphasis on the results of this method, the results of this study indicate that the rural labor market development in most provinces has not improved at the end of the plan in comparison to the beginning. Accordingly with this process, improvement in situation of economic, social and cultural rural areas cannot be expected. At the next stage, this could be transferred in various forms, such as migration from rural to urban areas, to urban areas as well. On this basis, considering labor market in rural areas and efforts to reduce regional differences are essential. With emphasis on the results of this method, the results of this study indicate that the rural labor market development in most provinces has not improved at the end of the plan in comparison to the beginning. Accordingly with this process, improvement in situation of economic, social and cultural rural areas cannot be expected. At the next stage, this could be transferred in various forms, such as migration from rural to urban areas, to urban areas as well. On this basis, considering labor market in rural areas and efforts to reduce regional differences are essential. With emphasis on the results of this method, the results of this study indicate that the rural labor market development in most provinces has not improved at the end of the plan in comparison to the beginning. Accordingly with this process, improvement in situation of economic, social and cultural rural areas cannot be expected. At the next stage, this could be transferred in various forms, such as migration from rural to urban areas, to urban areas as well. On this basis, considering labor market in rural areas and efforts to reduce regional differences are essential.
    Keywords: Factor analysis method, Labor Market indicator, Labor Market Development, TOPSIS method, Rural Areas
  • Hasan Darabi, Bahador Afshidkia Page 111
    Introduction
    Knowledge is continuously being produced in the process of formulating and implementing rural development projects. The capital is available without any cost, but it is neglected. Knowledge has been distributed along the extensive network through the country. If knowledge management is recorded and exploited, it could lead to dramatic changes as a result of the butterfly Approach.
    Methodology
    Rural Physical Guide Plan has been chosen as a case study. Physical Guide Plan tries to prepare the rural context for development through managing the physical environment. Iran has more than 63000 villages (CSI, 2008). Physical Guide Plan (PGP) has been prepared for more than 20000 villages and has been implemented in more than 11000 villages. The procedure of preparation and implementation of Physical Guide Plan (PGP) creates a network. It has about 73533 nodes which could potentially produce knowledge. The framework of knowledge shows that the amount of tacit knowledge creation is significant, but the main questions are: Where are the centers of knowledge production? and the second question would be: How do the related organizations mange the procedures of knowledge production and knowledge change process? A special framework has been chosen for the following acts: 1- A theoretical base has been selected with the capability to first explain the volume of knowledge productions and secondly to elucidate its power. 2- A methodological and analytical framework with the ability to clarify centers that contribute in the procedures of knowledge production and secondly, an explicatory analytical framework for explanation of effective factors in managing knowledge production. In the first step, the Nonaka-Takeuchi perception of knowledge management has been selected as theoretical KM (Knowledge Management). In this perception, two kinds of knowledge were identified: tacit knowledge and explicit knowledge. The role implies on change in the procedures of knowledge. In the second step, butterfly effect has been preferred in the framework of chaos theory. It says that a small change in a place in a nonlinear system can lead to spectacular changes in other areas. Nonak's model is applicable for analysis of the procedures of knowledge. In addition, DPSIR method has been chosen to analyze casual relationships. Although DPSIR method describes interactions between the society and the environment, it could be used to in this field too. Two methods of analysis have been combined in the research process. A number of experts related to Physical Guide Plan (PGP) were selected after the identification of knowledge production centers in order to collect the necessary data. The target groups were questioned three times. Cronbach’s Alpha coefficient was used to check the accuracy of the questionnaires. The coefficients obtained from the questionnaires respectively were: 84.0, 79.0, and 77.0. Based on the survey, the centers of knowledge and knowledge exploitations system were investigated.
    Results
    Based on the DPSIR model, the main results can be summarized as below: 1- Driving forces in current processes are identified as temporary forces, unstructured, based on short term needs and pre-defined objects. Driving forces are very week due to this system. The origin of driving forces didnt lay in KM. Their main character is focus only on problem solving. Driving forces did not search a strategic resource for innovation and revitalization of PGP planning system. No incentives are formed due to this short term approach. 2- Pressure: Driving forces lead to identify some small parts of nodes and knowledge production centers and ignore its major part. The total number of knowledge production centers in PGP is estimated to be 73533 centers. But the system could pay attention to a maximum of 1000 centers in the current system. Comparing the estimated volume of tacit knowledge production to explicit knowledge exploitation from knowledge centers shows a significant gap between the two types of knowledge. 3- State: Driving forces and pressure create a special state. The main results can be summarized as below: Lack of knowledge flow from bottom to top, Lack of knowledge structure and incapability to form, Diminutive emphasis on extracting knowledge, Exploiting a petite portion of the existing knowledge generalized incomplete knowledge to whole system. Impacts: The state led to completely clear results as follow: Deficient knowledge network formation, Restricted opportunities in the knowledge integration, Elimination of a considerable amount of tacit knowledge, Neglecting knowledge as capital, Shortage in knowledge Production cycle and so on. 4- Responses: Important responses could be divided in two categories: -Reactions of responsible organizations: a) Approximately 79% of knowledge centers lay in low levels of organizational and tacit knowledge is easily abandoned, even with awareness of knowledge production. b) Pyramidal organizational structure in PGP projects normally restrict knowledge flow and eliminate a huge amount of knowledge. c) Organizations dont change their structures, nevertheless negative role. d) Some people try to create a semi structure to gain knowledge based on individual interests, but it isnt sufficient. - Other people out of responsible organization use knowledge management in problem solving situations temporarily and the process cannot provide suitable context to use.
    Conclusion
    Nevertheless KM produces a vital capital as Knowledge, but unfortunately it rarely attracted executive administrators to the procedure of PGP. However, a huge amount of knowledge is produced in this procedure. Nonetheless, Km could maximize the benefit of projects, provide a suitable context for change, increase productivity, but no structure has been created for exploitation of this capital. Although knowledge flows in the system network, the network is too limited and serious shortages is visible in it. A significant part of the produced knowledge has been deleted and easily disregarded. To optimize the utilization of the produced knowledge and make improvements in the quality of the PGP plan, some actions seem to be necessary as follow: 1- Creating KM structures to obtain required knowledge, 2- Change organizational structures into project-oriented structures, 3- Constructing a network that is able to first collect knowledge and secondly deliver it to the headquarters, 4- Creating capacity according to KM leadership in organizations, 5- Utilizing an integrated approach to apply KM system
    Keywords: canon, knowledge, guide plan, butterfly effect, rural
  • Fazileh Khani, Shahla Chubchian Page 135
    Introduction
    Today, the mentality should be revised that a village is an atmosphere bounded in a special place with a set of economic and geography circumstances. A better understanding of rural features requires a deeper understanding of our rural areas where social relations and gender relations are well understood. Rural areas, like other geographic areas, are highly generized spaces and all behaviors and actions reflect attitudes, beliefs and opinions concerning the status, roles and responsibilities of both sexes. The role of women in Iran has been a relatively traditional one due to the strong cultural customs. The process of Development has caused many changes in social relations in rural areas. These changes are more significant in women's role and status.
    Methodology
    This Research relies on gender analysis in order to identify the impact of geographic areas of villages on the attitude towards women and their participation. The method used in this research is descriptive-survey research and data is gathered through questionnaires. Reliability of the Questionnaire was confirmed with Cronbach's alpha that was calculated 0.88 for women's participation, 0.93 for men’s attitudes towards women's working and 0.90 for women's attitudes towards their working. The statistical society were men and women living in rural villages and rural districts of Moreedan rural district of Langerood county located in the North of Iran and Hooly rural district of Paveh in Central Iran. These districts have different types of livelihood, such that Moreedan rural district of Langerood county located in the North of Iran which has an agricultural base, relies on Rice and Tea cultivation and Hooly rural district of Paveh in Central Iran has nomadism as their main livelihood. From the total statistical population, 124 family from Moreidan in Langeroud Township and 106 households from Hooly rural district in Paveh were selected randomly by Cochran Formula. With the understanding that a diversity of standpoints often exist with regard to the effects of a geographical space, an effort was made to capture input from a broad range of places and groups, including villagers of varied ages and both genders, and with different occupations, concerning attitudes towards women's participation. In addition, many informal interviews and discussions were held with the residents concerning their feelings about women's participation and their status in the family and the society. In addition, on-site observations were conducted of people's daily activities. The overall purpose of the research was to elicit the attitudes of rural communities towards a variety of issues related to their opinion about women's duties and rights and their experience of involvement in economic and social activities. The questionnaire was primarily based upon a 64 item, 5-point Likert scale, which addressed the following themes linked to the alleged challenges of gender relations: _ Attitudes towards gender duties and rights and their relationship with the involvement of rural women in rural activities, _ Explore the effect of the geographical factor on the community’s attitudes towards women's participation in economic and social activities, _ The relationship between women's self consciousness and their motivation for attending the skill training classes and also between men’s willingness for women's participation in different activities in rural areas, and _ The relevance of the cultural and socio-economic factors in successful participation of women in the two different geographical spaces.
    Results
    Test results and analysis in SPSS showed that there is a significant difference between women's attitudes in Langerood and Paveh towards their social rights and duties. Also there is a significant positive relationship between positive attitudes of women towards themselves, Women’s willingness to participate in training classes, willingness and positive attitude of men towards women with the Variable of women’s participation. In addition, a significant difference between the positive attitudes of men towards women’s activities in the two cities was seen and this leads to a significant difference in women's participation in social and economic activities in Moreedan and Hooly rural districts.in Moreedan and Hooly rural districts.
    Conclusion
    So we can conclude that the positive opinion of men about women's duties and rights as well as the worth of their daily work has a great effect on successful participation and partnership of women in the rural areas. Thus we suggest that for all gender-based programs, it is necessary to prepare the rural space and change the gender relations through training and improve men’s awareness. Considering the geographical differences between the studied areas leading to two different types of livelihood, the hypothesis of this study based on differences in attitudes towards women’s participation and work was confirmed.
    Keywords: Paveh, Rral areas, Women's participation, Langerood, Gender Relations
  • Khadijeh Bouzarjomehri, Reza Khosrobeygi, Ali Akbar Taghiloo Page 159
    Introduction

    Sustainable agriculture can be more objective than fit into the conceptual framework and it is closely associated with rational behavior. The result of such perspective is that sustainable agriculture is an activity based on rationality. The beginning of the formation of stable rationality requires training to create intellectual flexibility for the farmers in order to acquire knowledge and understanding of these issues. In the meantime, partnership is an approach that has an important role in solving this problem and has the ability to create the space for learning to understand the concepts of sustainable agriculture and rational behavior of operators. In fact, participation is a process with mental flexibility and mobility of thought in its heart and by creating a space for dialogue between farmers, agricultural promoters and service organizations, it provides the ground for training and information exchange and it is effective in achieving the objectives and principles of sustainable agriculture.

    Methodology

    Generally, the method of this study is such that sustainable agriculture is considered as a knowledge system of operation and partnership approach as a tool for generating knowledge and providing a context for learning and training in agricultural activities. The process has been developed in order to investigate knowledge, commitment, responsibility, and rational decision-making as components of sustainability and to illustrate the connection between sustainability and public participation as a factor, based on a conceptual model of the research. Then the partnership of the components with the component of stability was analyzed and the results were discussed. Eventually, the principles of sustainable agriculture were achieved in the operation and partnership patterns can be effective in various formations of mechanization, agricultural implementations and services, machinery maintenance, marketing and supply markets, conversion industries, packaging industries, construction of warehouses storing agricultural products, production in controlled areas, analytical performance, education or training in the farmework and participation in the operation of water and soil conservation.

    Findings

    The findings suggest that sustainable thinking has not yet been formed among farmers and the context that needs understanding the principles has not been provided in the region. The average level of participation in settlements is with 2.27 lower than the theoretical median. While the average indicators of participation in the process of thinking were not in a good situation and in all cases they were lower than the expected theoretical median, the results of the Spearman correlation test show that there is a direct correlation between participation and sustainable agriculture with the correlation coefficient of 0.557 and significant coefficient level of 0.038. As a result of this relationship, the mechanism shaped in the process of thinking raises from participation. The components of the mechanism are knowledge, commitment, responsibility, and rational decision-making and sustainable farming systems make a connection between them in the production process. Spearman test results indicate that between the elements there is a direct relationship (commitment and responsibility with rational decision making, commitment and responsibility with knowledge) with the correlation coefficients of 0.378 and 0.448. The correlation between rational decision-making and sustainable agriculture is the correlation coefficient of 0.558. Finally, considering the low level of participation in rural areas, the status of agriculture is not good with an average of 1.93.

    Conclusion

    Today, considering the performance of the partnership approach among extension approaches, paying attention to it is required in order to improve sustainable agriculture in the region. Therefore, changing the attitudes of farmers is the policy to create sustainable thinking in farmers with the help of the authorities in terms of participatory institutions and NGOs to promote the knowledge of farmers. Otherwise, any movement in this field will be associated with high costs and also the result would not be satisfying.oday, considering the performance of the partnership approach among extension approaches, paying attention to it is required in order to improve sustainable agriculture in the region. Therefore, changing the attitudes of farmers is the policy to create sustainable thinking in farmers with the help of the authorities in terms of participatory institutions and NGOs to promote the knowledge of farmers. Otherwise, any movement in this field will be associated with high costs and also the result would not be satisfying.oday, considering the performance of the partnership approach among extension approaches, paying attention to it is required in order to improve sustainable agriculture in the region. Therefore, changing the attitudes of farmers is the policy to create sustainable thinking in farmers with the help of the authorities in terms of participatory institutions and NGOs to promote the knowledge of farmers. Otherwise, any movement in this field will be associated with high costs and also the result would not be satisfying.

    Keywords: Commitment, Collaboration, Rational decision, making, Sustainable agriculture, Knowledge
  • Rezvan Ghambarali, Abdolhamid Papzan, Nashmil Afsharzadeh Page 187
    Introduction
    Agriculture is the most important sector of the economy in Iran and it is highly dependent on the climate. The impact of global climatic change on agriculture has recently become an issue of increasing importance. The global climate change has been drawing attention of many to this very important topic of climate change, though it was a difficult proposition for many to accept whether or not the farmers have the ability to perceive the changes in the climate that have already occurred. Understanding global climate and its changes is prerequisite to take appropriate initiatives to combat climate change. Adaptation to climate change requires the farmers to first notice that the climate has altered. The farmers then need to identify potentially useful adaptations and implement them. Changes in the climate impact on cropping patterns, water availability and to some extent, productivity of crops as well. Climate change is expected to have serious environmental, economic, and social impacts. In particular, rural farmers, whose livelihoods depend on the use of natural resources, are likely to bear the brunt of adverse impacts. The extent to which these impacts are felt depends, in large part, on the extent of adaptation in response to climate change. Adaptation is widely recognized as a vital component of any policy response to climate change. Without adaptation, climate change would be detrimental to the agricultural sector, but with adaptation, vulnerability can be significantly reduced.
    Methodology
    The purpose of this descriptive correlation study was to explore farmers’ perception and adaptation to climate change and investigate the factors affecting the adaptation process with a survey research method. The population of this study was 5746 farmers. Research samples were selected with randomly stratified method using the Krejcie and Morgan (1970), (n=362). The research tool was a questionnaire designed by the researchers based on the findings and the theoretical framework. The questionnaire was divided into several sections. The first section was designed to gather information about the personal characteristics of the respondents (age, farming experience, education, field size, contact with extension agents, and innovative access to media). The second section was designed to measure the perception and curiosity of the respondents about climate change. The third section was designed to analyze the impacts of climate change on the livelihood of the farmers. The fourth section was designed to analyze farmers’ strategies for adapting to climate change. The fifth section measured the application adaptation strategies with a two class yes / no question. The content and face validity were established by a panel of experts consisting of the Department of Agricultural Extension and Education. Minor wording and structuring of the instrument were made based on the recommendation of the panel of experts. The reliability analysis was conducted by completing 30 questionnaires and Cronbach's alpha coefficients for variables of the second, the third and the fourth parts were calculated, 0.79, 0.88, 0.91 respectively. This indicated that the questionnaire was highly reliable. Findings of farmer perceptions regarding changes in the climate indicated that most farmers perceived that the temperature distribution has undergone a significant shift in addition to an overall increase in temperatures. By contrast almost none believed they had decreased.
    Results
    The results for precipitation show a similar uniformity of opinions across the sample. The majority of farmers believed that the rainfall levels had decreased. Similarly, the overall perception on changes in precipitation is that the region is getting drier and that there are pronounced changes in the timing of rains and frequency of droughts. A sizeable minority of respondent farmers also believed they had witnessed uneven distribution and unpredictable behavior of rain. Examined views of farmers about the impacts of climate change show that most identified effects were negative. Migration of young people as a consequence of adaptation measures was mentioned by many farmers. The absence of young people in the families who have migrated to the city in search for work and older people to remain in the household is of the indirect negative impacts of climate. This problem is a response to reduced and diminished opportunities in agriculture. Other effects that have been mentioned by the farmers include loss of product, unemployment, reduced income, reduced water supply, diminished health of livestock, loss of forage, reduced soil fertility and loss of vegetation cover and animals.
    Conclusion
    Analysis of adaptations made by all respondents revealed that an integrated farming system was considered to be one of the most important adaptation strategies in response to climatic vagaries. Adjusting the cropping sequence, including changing the timing of sowing, planting, spraying and harvesting are among the measures to take advantage of the changing duration of growing seasons and associated heat and moisture levels. Finally, the results of the logistic regression analysis show that farming experience, credit availability, farm size, access to extension services, soil fertility and having a non-agricultural occupation explained 86 percent of the variance use of adaptation strategies among farmers.
    Keywords: Agriculture, Perception, Climate change, Adaptation, Farmer
  • Hossein Danesh Mahr, Vorya Safari, Alireza Karimi Page 209
    Introduction

    Tourism is an ancient phenomenon which has existed in human societies for many years. With the development of humankind in different historical periods, tourism has gradually changed to a technical, economical and social subject. An important part of world tourism activities is based on a powerful tendency to use nature, known by “Ecotourism”. Ecotourism is an international concept that emphasizes on conservation of natural resources and wishes inexhaustible development. Job creation and local development are the results of ecotourism. Good Climate, geographical and topographical characteristics, exceptional ecological conditions, forest and ranch coverage, green regions, wild world and innumerous hunting grounds are among the greatest tourism attractions of Kurdistan province. Out of all the cities and villages in Kurdistan, “Awraman Takht” is one of the most important centers of tourism attraction and has got a very rich history which is regarded by all tourists. The main aspects of this village in this regard are as follow: unique natural attractions, special environment, historical sight, mountains and valleys, variety of the weather during the year and variety of plants. So, recognition and assessment of potential capabilities and development of infrastructures can facilitate the growth of tourism.

    Methodology

    In this research, questionnaire and interview methods have been used to study ecotourism in “Awraman Takht”. The Statistical population consisted of families living in the village, tourists and employees of institutions related to tourism in the city of “Sarvabad”. The data obtained was analyzed with the SWOT method. SWOT is an acronym for Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats. By definition, Strengths (S) and Weaknesses (W) are considered to be internal factors over which you have some measure of control. Also, by definition, Opportunities (O) and Threats (T) are considered to be external factors over which you have essentially no control. SWOT analysis is the most renowned tool for audit and analysis of the overall strategic position.

    Results

    Analysis of the results is provided below: - The main strength is the beautiful rural landscape with gardens and green spaces. - The main strength is the beautiful rural landscape with gardens and green spaces. - The main weakness is lack of planning and public investment in this village. - The main opportunity is greater attention to planning and investment. - The main threat is lack of careful management to ecotourism issues.

    Conclusion

    Based on what was said, rural tourism development strategies in “Awraman takht” are provided in the following: 1- Opportunity-Strength (OS) Strategies (Use strengths to take advantage of opportunities): a) Further development of ecotourism and natural tourism, b) Development of cultural tourism as a result of religious ceremonies in the village of “Awraman Takht”, and c) Increase the desire to travel to “Awraman takht” between urban areas and other provinces in order to create employment and income for rural residents. 2- Threat-Strength (TS) Strategies (Use strengths to avoid threats): a) Expanding advertising programs to introduce more natural, humanities and architectural attractions of the village of “Awraman takht” in the provincial centers, b) Preparation of manuals for tourists, and c) Determining the optimal population density in order to reduce pressure on pastures and vegetation cover. 3- Opportunity-Weakness (OW) Strategies (Overcome weaknesses by taking advantage of opportunities): a) Better use of public participation, b) Development of institutions and organizations in village of “Awraman takht” to educate people and tourists, and c) Investments in order to improve and solve the water shortage problem in the village. 4- Threat-Weakness (TW) Strategies (Minimize weaknesses and avoid threats): a) Increase investments of institutions and relevant agencies in ecotourism in the village, b) Encouraging entrepreneurs and investors to set up residential and recreation complexes in “Awraman takht”, c) Educate and inform people about how to deal with tourists, and d) Encouraging people to participate in the development of tourist infrastructures and various facilities. 4- Threat-Weakness (TW) Strategies (Minimize weaknesses and avoid threats): a) Increase investments of institutions and relevant agencies in ecotourism in the village, b) Encouraging entrepreneurs and investors to set up residential and recreation complexes in “Awraman takht”, c) Educate and inform people about how to deal with tourists, and d) Encouraging people to participate in the development of tourist infrastructures and various facilities.4- Threat-Weakness (TW) Strategies (Minimize weaknesses and avoid threats): a) Increase investments of institutions and relevant agencies in ecotourism in the village, b) Encouraging entrepreneurs and investors to set up residential and recreation complexes in “Awraman takht”, c) Educate and inform people about how to deal with tourists, and d) Encouraging people to participate in the development of tourist infrastructures and various facilities.

    Keywords: strategies, rural development, SWOT, ecotourism, Awraman takht