پژوهشنامه اقتصاد انرژی ایران
پیاپی 3 (تابستان 1391)

Most studies suggest a form of inverted U relationship between environmental quality and economic growth, entitled as "the environmental Kuzne's curve (EKC)"Given the importance of maintaining environmental quality along with economic growth, this study studies the level of water pollution and economic growth both in developing and developed countries during 2001-1980. Based on theoretical foundations of environmental EKC curve, as in addition to the income variable, the population variable, is also considered as an exogenous variable and the integration method is used for estimating the model. The results indicates that the economic conditions prevailing in both groups of countries are consistent with the EKC. Curve and it this curve. The turning point in developed countries is at 10,622 dollars based on statistical findings, most of the studied countries in this group have crossed the turning point. But as for developing countries, the turning point in this curve is estimated at approximately 901 dollars of national per capita income. Statistical analysis of existing data showed that many countries at this group still have not reached the turning point of the EKC curve and are far from it. Using the results, it seems necessary for the developing countries to adopt more cautious policies to grow and develop their economies, in order to promote the growth of national per capita income, as well as policies to improve quality of water resources, or at least prevent their contamination.

The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is one of the important issues in energy economics. Total energy consumption and its utilization in various sectors can affect this relationship. Therfore it may imply that this relationship can considered in a nonlinear framework. In this paper we investigate the nonlinearity of the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth using a smooth transition regression model, where the non-productive part of energy use (i.e. final use) is assumed as the transition variable. The results indicates that there is a positive nonlinear relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Iran. The effect of energy on economic growth is negative as the share of nonproductive sector’s energy use rises. Estimated output elasticity of energy in our sample (1967-2008) is between 0.14 and 0.88, and its mean is about 0.325.

Allocation of the oil revenues is one of the most important economic problems in the oil exporting countries budget, so the main aim of this paper is to determine the optimal allocation of oil revenues. This allocation is studied in three sub-problems: the main natural features of oil revenues, effects of ignoring this particular features in policies and the best policy of allocation. In theoretical part, we develop a model based on OLG model of Blanchard (1985) and Uzawa-Lucas endogenous growth model, composition with oil revenues. We analysis the optimal path of consumption, human and physical capital formation and there for the economic growth in four cases with no subsidies, capital subsidies and direct and indirect consumption subsidies (as is the theoretical contribution of this study). In applied part, first we compute the required parameters by using the Iranian economy dataset. Then we calibrate the model constructed in theoretical sector. Finally we solve the model by using Wolfarm Mathematica 6 software. The results indicate the optimal path of consumtion, human and physical capital formation and economic growth is obtained with capital subsidies.

One of the most important steps in establishing industrial plants, is location studies for determining the best location of industries. Because of the long run impact of this decision, and it’s significant impact on the economy, environment and society. Thanks to vast oil reserves, Iran is the fourth oil producer in the world. Insufficiency of refining capacity and increasing domestic demand for oil products, have made Iran an importer of oil product like gasoline. Running petroleum production at full capacity is very important and in this way the expansion of existing refineries or building new plants (construction of oil refineries) are appropriate plans ahead. Given the high costs of constructing oil refineries in the country by the state-owned oil industry, building a new refinery is too important in order to choose mechanism that minimizes the total costs. So Determining the best and most suitable place for building a new refinery is very important. This study using both GIS and econometric likelihood linear models like logit and probit seeks to determine the optimal location for establishing an oil refinery in various geographical areas of the country. In this study, some geographical criteria such as slope and elevation of land are used in the GIS section then all areas is studied and the areas that had the initial condition have been screened. Finally, using the logit and probit models, the suitable areas were analyzed based on economic criteria and final ranking has been done.

Countries efforts to achieve rapid economic growth and lack of adequate attention to environmental issues in recent years have caused serious damage to the countries environment. Hence, examining factors affecting the quality of environment is more important. This article aims to investigate the Impact of economic growth, energy consumption and openness on Environment pollution in Iran from 1967-2007. This paper uses some econometric techniques, including Johansson approach and DOLS model to explore the influence of economic growth, energy consumption and openness on Environment quality. The result of the analysis reveals a positive sign for the coefficients of economic growth, energy consumption and openness. Also the findings does not support the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and invironmental pollution.

This study investigates interactions between economic growth and natural gas consumption, using times series data. The paper uses vector error correction technique and Johansen Co-integration test for the period 1353-1386. Co-integration test results indicate that there are two co-integrating vectors containing GDP and natural gas consumption. In order to identify the co-integrating vectors, restrictions based on fundamentals of economic theory are imposed. Each vector can be interpreted as follows: in cointegrating equation1, gas consumption, capital, research & development and labor force variables have positive and significant effects on GDP (endogenous growth function) in the long run, based on theoretical foundations of endogenous growth function is quite plausible. In cointegrating equation 2, GDP has positive and significant effect on gas consumption in the long run. Also, there are short-term dynamics in ECM equations in which speed of adjustment coefficients are offered. The results indicate that there is bidirectional causality between gas consumption and GDP in Iranian economy. So myiopic policies on one side without considering the other side is not expected to be effective. This means that policies designed for restraining gas consumption policy, ceteris paribus, may lead to decline in GDP.

Iran is one of major oil producers and exporters in the world. Since the crude oil export is a major source of Iran’s income, it indirectly influences the country’s other economic activities. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of oil price changes on major macroeconomic variables including gross domestic product, government capital expenditures, money supply and inflation rate in Iran during 1971-2007 period. A vector Autoregression (VAR) model is estimated for this purpose. Impulse Response Function (IRF), the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) are then utilized to analyze the results. The major findings are as follows: 1-Gross domestic product, government capital expenditures, money supply and inflation rate are positively affected by oil price fluctuations. 2-Forecast Error Variance Decomposition analysis, indicates that oil price plays a major role in explaining inflation rate and money supply, but it’s role with regard to gross domestic product and government capital expenditures is secondary.

There are two approaches for timing business cycles, namely "growth cycle" and "classical cycle". Though different, these approaches are complementary. This paper studies business cycles timing in 10 OPEC members based on Markov Switching Model, introduced by Hamilton (1989). The results show that after Qatar, Iran suffered the least probability of recession and enjoyed the highest probability of boom. Iran's economic growth among 10 countries however has been the ninth, putting it just above Nigeria.