فصلنامه پژوهش های مدیریت منابع سازمانی
سال پنجم شماره 2 (پیاپی 18، تابستان 1394)

The lack of a structured anticipating about high usage product of the national petrochemical company، has forced this company to buy forecasted price from foreign countries. Prevent the outflow of foreign exchange and tolerance of political factors such as sanctions in this field requires a forecast of prices in our country. Due to the chain-like nature of the petrochemical products، and the absence of precise knowledge of the effects of many factors affecting the price، researchers are forced to solve problems with high complexity and high grade equations. Selecting the number and the type of input variables of neural network is a significant impact on the performance of system، so، fundamental analysis، relying on the theory of supply and demand and macroeconomic perspective، and Delphi statistical method are used to select the most influential factor is the price of petroleum products. First، the overall topology of the neural network is designed، using the controlled variables، then، considering the independent variables، the optimal network selected. After creating the user interface، communication of system with optimal neural network was established. To evaluating، the actual price of the considered product in reference year، compared with the prices predicted by the proposed system and purchased predicted prices from CMAI; and the results proved the acceptable effectiveness of the proposed system with less than 3% error in predicting of considered chain. Providing this system can make petrochemical companies independent from buying forecasted prices from foreign companies and can force from exiting the currency from country.

The knowledge-based firms are driver of knowledge-based economy that have a key role in the development of it. These firms have role in the synergy of science and wealth، development of knowledge-based economy، achievement to the goals of scientific، economic and commercialization of research and development in the field of high technologies. In the literature، terms such as knowledge society، intelligente، learning or knowledge-based organizations are used more often. Related to these concepts، organizations should act intelligently by learning. But theoretical knowledge and review of the literature shows that the concept of knowledge-based firms are related with the concept of SMEs، start-ups، high-tech industries، new technology based firms and Spin-Offs firms. In this paper we try to identify the main approaches in the definitions and provide proper classification of them according to the definitions provided in the literature and using content analysis method. Based on content analysis of the definitions proposed by various researchers and the features offered in several studies، Criteria of be follow are main characteristics of knowledge based firms: be technology new and the emergence of new industries in the form of definition of sector and medium or high technology، be firms young، the size of firms، independent of firms، subject of firms –that implies exploitation from new know how or technology and a focus on R&D، and founder characteristic.

Nowadays، many organizations deal with increasing competition and environmental uncertainty، which caused by innovations in technologies and customer needs change. In term of this condition and environment، old and traditional methods in supply chain has lost their efficiency. On efficient method in this regard is leagility. Thus، to model the leagility of supply chain، numbers of research was reviewed in literature. The results of these researches and interviews by experts lead to 15 critical success factors of leagilty in supply chain. Then these factors were put into a ISM and DEMATEL techniques questionnaires and experts of Energy company were asked to set the relationships. The acquired results were analyzed by these two techniques. Obtained maps and relations showed that for both techniques using IT، management، employee training، designing supply chain network، process standardization and demand and supply management are the basics of leagilty in supply chain. This model would help the supply chain managers in strategic planning to make improvement in leagility supply chain.

Educational evaluations reveal degrees of value creation for stakeholders. The evaluation results can help to improve the quality of teaching and prevent to wasting educational efforts. In this study، using the Kirkpatrick model (1994)، the effectiveness on management development curriculums of the levels behavioral / applicable in descriptive and quasi- experimental method has been studied. Should bear in mind that the time horizon of this study، is considered a longitudinal study. Pre-test survey، two weeks before the curriculum to measure behavior change resulting from learning experiment is employed. The post- test involves measuring changes learners in two time periods: 1) Two weeks after completion of the curriculum، 2) one or two months after finishing the curriculum. Evaluation results indicate that the changes in job behavior resulted from the training curriculum، although can be seen within two weeks، but it is not stable، and after one month has decreased، but it is not stable، and after one month has decreased. In other words، learning of learners in these curriculums not is not conducive to change their job. Indicate that the cause of failure eleven deterrent effect of reducing or neutralizing the effectiveness trains of management development. The results of this study indicate that the education system of Iran development management is in need of fundamental revision. This review primarily involves the selection of an appropriate theoretical model and then design a training needs assessment based on job level، organizational، and cross it.

Supply Chain Management (SCM) is an integrated process of decision making from supply of raw materials to consume of final product by ultimate customers. Selection of the most appropriate supplier is one of the key decision making issues where several qualitative and quantitative factors are involved. Due to the increasing of the complexity in supply chain، the uncertainty and the risk associated with are intensified. Hence supply chain risk management especially evaluation of suppliers risk has been paid more attention. In this study، firstly، suppliers risk in steel industries using blast furnace were identified and a hierarchical classification of risks (38 risk events in 3 levels) was suggested. Then، nine criteria for the evaluation of the risks were proposed. After that، for an accurate assessment of each supplier risks، a composite risk index based on the evaluation criteria and their importance weight is recommended. Finally، Isfahan steel company was selected as a case study and its mine suppliers was ranked with «ELECTERE III» method. The results indicated that Jalal-Abad and Shargh-Iran iron ore complexes have the lowest and the highest risk levels، accordingly.

In today''s business environment، complex changes and non-linear and discontinuous changes impossible to predict the future and has forced organizations، to comply with changed. In these volatile times، strategic thinking can be the way to survive. Strategic thinking is a specific activity that aims to discover creative and innovative strategies that can be played by that rule changes and a different future and ideally be created. In this study relationship between strategic thinking of managers and the quality of the products is discussed. Survey are 57 people from industry managers Kosar Eshtehard Industrial Estate. The number of samples using Cochran''s formula and taking into account the 95% confidence level، 50 people were selected. In the statistical analysis using spss software the results of pearson test showed that the strategic thinking، systems thinking، thinking in time، creativity، and focus on the goal have a significant positive correlation with the quality of the products. But opportunism is no relationship with the quality of the products.

Increasing complexity and turbulence of the environment، is requires the quickly response and good reaction of organizations، this conditions has increased the need of organizations to think and act beyond their current issues have been solved. In today''s competitive and changing environment، being smart and acting smart is the best guarantee for the success of any business. The present study seeks to answer the question of what are the processes and factors that are necessary for smart organization. This paper on the basis of data collection methods، is descriptive- survey، and on basis of purpose is fundamental - applicable research. The statistical population is 3531 persons from manufacturing firms in Kermanshah province and 347 persons were chosen as samples. Data was gathered using a questionnaire that for design of them was used Delphi technique. Validity of questionnaire through convergent validity and the reliability is confirmed by functional loadings and composite reliability (Dillon- Goldstein Rho). To analyze the data، is used Smart PLS software with partial least squares method. Test results showed that all variables except the variable group work had a significant and positive impact on the smart organization، and the effect of all variable together is significant. It was also found that the flexible communications has greatest impact on the smart organization.