فصلنامه مدلسازی اقتصادی
سال پنجم شماره 1 (پیاپی 13، بهار 1390)

This paper designed a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for studying Iranian monetary policymaking, in which a policymaker can decide between inflation and exchange rate targeting to organize a monetary policy. Central bank’s tools to achieve these two goals are the control of domestic credits and intervention in exchange market. The results of our calibration represent that, in case of oil revenue shock, inflation targeting scenario makes less movement in consumption, non-oil production, employment, inflation and money. In case of technology shock, there is no special difference between two scenarios. But, inflation targeting makes less movement in non-oil production and inflation.

By increasing the importance of financial assets market, it is necessary to perform constant studies about these markets. An important component of any financial market is stock exchange market. Since, there is a significant relationship between the stock market developments and the economic stagnation and downturn, mutual macroeconomic policy, especially monetary policy affects the stock market too. So, this study examines the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock prices focusing on the role of monetary policy by using SVEC model. The results represent that stock price in Iran mostly affect the monetary policy and it is important in explaining stock price changes. This is because, it depends on the Bank's financial sector, lack of awareness, lack of capital market securities and failure of interest rate channel in Iran.

The relationship between democracy and economic growth has been one of the most important issues in recent years. Some economists believe that increased democracy and political freedom result in the economic growth. On the other hand, many politicians suggest that any increase in the growth rate and material welfare improvement of the society gives rise to the demand of democracy. In this paper, these two approaches have been considered using Causality Test and Panel Data for countries. The results indicate a two-way casualty between democracy and economic growth.

Expanding non-oil exports for diversifying exchange revenues and reducing oil income instability effects on Iran’s economic growth has been one of the main strategies in foreign trade for recent years from the viewpoint of planners and policy makers. Present study applies ANN and SARIMA to forecast Iranian non-oil exports. For accomplishing this, monthly time series data of non-oil exports value during 2000-2009 are used. In order to predict this, the performances of two mentioned approaches are compared by using ME, RMSE, MAE, MPE and MAPE criteria. MAPE is calculated at 0.44 for ANN representing ANN forecasts are more precise than SARIMA ones.

This paper investigates the effect of government size on economic growth of 23 selected countries during 1980-2008. To do this, the government size variable is determined by the government general consumption expenditure ratio to GDP and then Static Panel Data technique is used along with the data during 1980-2008. The results reveal that government size, inflation and female fertility rate have negative and investment has positive and significant effects on economic growth in those countries. Moreover, they represent that the effect of market size is not significant. Furthermore, based on the conditions of model estimation, sometimes trade openness has positive and significant effect on economic growth but insignificant in other times.

Comparative advantage strategy is based on an economic principle. The product comparative advantage is a criterion for estimating the social profitably of production activities. Regard to gravity maize production and its price fluctuate, the efficacy will be studied to explain if maize production Social profitably, the government politic affections and exchange rate fluctuate on of maize production by policy analysis matrix from 2002-2003 to 2007-2008 in Iran agriculture according to the data extracted FAO site and documentations study. The policy analysis matrix exhibit represents that the comparative advantage is decreased.

In this article, the effect of investment in housing sector on business cycles in Iran economy during 1959 to 2006 will be investigated. At first, by using gross domestic product variable, the long run trend and business cycle in Iran is going to be found out by Hodrick-Prescott filter and then VAR model and impulse response function to study the effects of housing sector investment shock and the number of affecting periods on business cycle. The results represent that: 1- run test indicates that the gross domestic product’s fluctuations in Iran follow a regular pattern and they can be studied in business cycle patterns and 2- investment in housing sector can anticipate the future business cycle fluctuations and a positive shock may affect business cycle for 3 years.