فصلنامه مدلسازی اقتصادی
سال دهم شماره 4 (پیاپی 36، زمستان 1395)

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the inflation persistency regarding the heterogeneous behavior of economic agents. For this, the data were used from 1991-2015 based on seasonal data and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models. The innovation of this paper is Calvo pricing assumption regarding the lag in inflation rate and indexing parameter in which inflation persistency conditions computing will be more relevant to Iran’s economy. The results showed that inflation expectations have a major role in inflation rate formation so that even if the inflation rate declines it will occur in a longer time due to inflation persistency. It, was cleared the prices have less reaction ability in relation to inflation persistency. It is suggested to the monetary authorities by considering the domestic inflation targeting rule in addition to inflation control, they stabilize the domestic production in the natural level in which it is required the monetary authorities to have credibility in views of economic agents.

The aim of this paper is computing the welfare under different fiscal policies by using of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model in an optimal monetary and fiscal policy framework for the Iran's economy. In order to investigating the effects of using tax instruments some different scenarios were provided. First scenario, the case with all taxes available, Second scenario, the case without consumption taxes, third scenario, the case of income and consumption taxes. The results indicate that the number of fiscal policy instruments available to the planner, plays an important role in the welfare changes in the optimal monetary and fiscal policy model. The minimum welfare loss occurs in last scenario and the maximum of welfare loss is related to second scenario. The proposal is that planner deal with determining polices in an optimum fiscal and monetary policy model, regarding available fiscal policy instruments and effects from economic shocks on welfare changes.

The aim of this survey is surveying of monetary shocks on government income-expenditure in Iran by using variable parameters during time by considering seasonal data over the period 1988 to 2014. The results show that occurrence of any shock in liquidity, increase government income and expenditures and occurrence of any shock in inflation and interest rates, reduce this relationship, but the shocks of inflation and interest rates, has weakened this relationship. Based on the results, it is suggested, to balancing the relationship of income - expenditure in the long term, the government should not focus on the tools of monetary policy.

The purpose of the paper is surveying multi-dimensional approach to subjective well-bein.by using Van Praag, et al (2003) model. Therefore, satisfaction from life has been modeled as a function of satisfactions in finance, job, health, habitation, leisure, and living environment and by COLS method, on the base of data from the questionnaire for a sample including 180 individuals of Ilam university’s faculty members and staff was estimated. The results show that satisfaction with life as a whole for the staff is also a function of finance, health and living environment satisfaction, while it is only a function of financial satisfaction for the faculty members. The results, also, suggest that in various life aspects, lack of satisfaction with life cannot be explained solely by income components. So, it is suggests to protective institutes that prohibit to solely welfare plans and instead of them, provide more comprehensive protective packages.

In this paper by considering importance of inflation expectations, its formation quality has investigated by regarding heterogeneous economic agents and by factor based computing model, expected inflation in Iran economy has simulated with lest forecasting error squares during 1979-2013. On the base of the assumptions, individuals have been divided into two groups with extroverted and regressive to trend expectations in which the ratio of these groups can change over time. The results show that the economic agents with extroverted inflationary expectations have an important role in inflation durability and changing the behavioral parameters of economic agents affects inflation expectation. Therefore, because of the possibility of endogenous dynamism mobility in the model, it is better that Policy-makers notice to the condition of inflationary expectations change in making polices.

The purpose of this study is investigating the food security among the Iranian's urban households and effective factors involved for the period of 1983 to 2011. For this purpose, time series pattern used for evaluating the effective factors. The results showed that during the period the food security of urban households had an increasing trend. Despite the enhancement of food security among urban households, 5.1 percent of the urban population received less than necessary calorie level in 2011. The effect of the percentage of urban population on urban household's food security index has been negative, although not significant at an appropriate level. The lag variable of aggregate food security index changes on growth of aggregate food security index in the next year will be negative, so that increasing in one unit growth of food security index in one year; its growth will be decreased by 0.008 units in the next year. According to the results, the index stability and keeping its increasing trend should be considered as a priority in the future development plans.

The aim of this paper is investigating the effects of governmental expenditure shock on GDP in Iran’s economy. In order to achieve this aim, at first, the model of effective factors on governmental expenditure has been explained, and governmental expenditure shock is captured by the model residuals. Then the model of effective factors on GDP is estimated from 1971 to 2014. In estimating the models, autoregressive distributed Lag (ARDL) approach has been used. According to the results, the effect of governmental current expenditure on GDP is not significant. But lagged government expenditure shock has a positive and significant impact on GDP. Error correction term is negative and significant, and indicates that when a shock occurs, 12 percent of short term imbalance is adjusted each period, to reach the long term equilibrium. It is purposed to government not to increase own expenditure, since this can cause an inverse relationship between government expenditure and GDP and it reduces economic growth.