فصلنامه مدلسازی اقتصادی
سال دوازدهم شماره 4 (پیاپی 44، زمستان 1397)

The purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of economic, social and political aspects of globalization on economic welfare in 50 selected countries from three income groups in the time between 2005 and 2015. For this purpose, economic welfare was been calculated using the Index of Economic Well-Being (IEWB). The results in four frame with panel data method indicated that in high-income countries, economic and social aspect of globalization had significant positive effect on economic welfare while political globalization had no statistically significant effect. While, in the middle-income countries only economic aspect of globalization has significant positive effect on economic welfare. In low-income countries also, economic welfare is affect inversely from economic and political globalization and political globalization has not significant effect on welfare. In general, one can say that non-political aspects of globalization were been affected on economic welfare in the selected countries. Income per capita had a significant positive effect on economic welfare, but inflation had no significant effect on economic welfare. Based on the results an increase in the economic relations is recommend in high and middle-income countries.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the distributive and welfare effects of the transition from the current payment system to a partially funding system in Iran. For this purpose a six period OLG Models have been designed and simulated. The simulation results of the specified model show that, the consumption of all generations has increased and the saving of individuals and, consequently, capital accumulation in the economy is decline due to these reforms; the result of these changes is the decline in total production of economy. Based on these results and the widespread recession in the country's economy, it is suggested that policymakers do not resort to structural reforms and transition to funded system.

The aim of this study is to examine the effect of oil rent on corruption within the Selected Middle East and North Africa’s oil-rich countries (MENA) by using a panel data model over the period 2003 to 2016. For this purpose, the effect some control variables such as oil production, economic openness degree, democracy index, political right index, individual liberties index, per capita production and inflation on corruption has been considered. The results showed that oil rent has statistically significant negative impact on corruption index. Economic openness degree increase and democracy improvement and institutional quality improvement significantly decrease corruption. However, other control variables have not significantly effect on corruption index. In addition to, institutional quality variable as moderating index of relationship between oil rent and corruption was been considered but its significant effect on the relationship between these two variables was not been confirmed.

This paper examines an optimal fiscal policy model in the presence of agents heterogeneous in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. Therefore, the presence of heterogeneous agents in the model led to create limitation that will be call government preference. The role of these preferences and tendency of the Government to the poor or the rich group can change the results of optimal policies on the economy. By using a dynamic stochastic general model, the role of government preferences tendency was been surveyed. The results indicate that in these models, the role of government expenditure financing through available taxes in the policymaking system, is partly dependent on the government preferences tendency. On the bases of the results, it is suggested that separating the government preferences and tendency in relation to the poor and the rich.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the factors affecting the payment of fossil fuel subsidies in oil exporting countries. To this end, the determinants of fossil fuel subsidies in selected exporting countries are divided into three sections: economic, political and institutional factors, and analyzed by the method of generalized moment data of dynamic panel data in the period 2003-2015. The results showed that variables such as carbon emissions and health costs are effective in paying gasoline subsidies. International Indicators of Risk also show the impact of institutional and political factors on subsidies. Based on the results, international organizations or management organizations should have targeted and accurate investment in improving the organizational and institutional capacity of the countries.

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of fiscal policy shocks on the actual, cyclical and structural budget balance in OPEC countries during the period 1980-2015. For this purpose, by separating the budget balance into two cyclical and structural variables, using the Panel Structural Vector Auto Regression approach, which it presented in Pedroni (2013), as well as separation structural shocks into two common and idiosyncratic shocks among OPEC countries, the effect of fiscal policy is examine. Regarding the results, the effect of expenditures fiscal policy on the actual and structural budget has been positive and the effect of tax policy has been negative in theory. Based on the results, the need to pay attention to automatic stabilization and the use of monetary policy to deal with economic problems, rather than applying discretionary fiscal policy, are advisable.

The aim of this paper is evaluation and forecasting of credit risk of the companies that were applied for a loan in a commercial bank in Iran. So, by using cross-section random sampling by having 75% of total data as an in-sample and 25% as out-sample and also by using LINMAP model, financial statements and their performance in the bank were investigated during 1389-1393. The results indicate the efficiency of the method for forecasting credit behavior of the bank's customers.
Considering the method advantages including its independence to the companies' financial background and precision in forecasting relative to prevailing methods, it is recommended to use this method as input to researches for banks' credit portfolio management.