فصلنامه مدلسازی اقتصادی
سال نهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 30، تابستان 1394)

In oil exporting countries, the formation of Dutch disease is one of the major problems in economy. Dutch disease causes the outcome of non-tradable sectors (land and housing) to be increased compared with the tradable sector (industry and agriculture) and economic capitals transferred to less productive sectors. When facing with this problem, the solution is to reduce the profit of non- tradable sectors by the help of tax. In this paper, by using neoclassical growth model, determining an optimal tax on housing capital compared with non-housing capital will be studied. According to the results, optimal tax on capital depends on elasticity of substitution between consumption non-housing, housing and leisure times. Since Dutch disease causes the elasticity of substitution between housing capital and leisure time to be decreased, housing capital optimal tax should be more than the tax on non-housing capital. Based on the results obtained by simulating the model in Iran, the tax on businesses and labor will be decreased by the tax on housing profits.

Based on the importance of inflation in Iran economy, paying careful attention to inflation determinants is essential. According to the results of various studies, the evaluation of inflaion determinants by using standard VAR model leads to wrong conclusions due to omitted variables bias in VAR model. The problem of price puzzle in the empirical literature is an example. In this study, for a more accurate assessment of the determinants of inflation in Iran economy and forecasting the inflation, TVP-VAR models are used to model the inflation instead of VAR model with constant coefficients. So that the variables of GDP, growth of monetary basis, inflation, exchange rates,banks interest rates and inflation uncertainty are modeled. The results represent changeable relationships between variables over time and the impact of economic conditions on the effects of variables on each other.

The most important aspect of financial development is the banking sector that has significant impact on the process of equipping the savings, identifying investment opportunities and diversifying the risk. Economic freedom is a determinant factor in developing the banking sector. The increase of economic freedom provides the setting of financial resources equipment, strengthens the sense of bank deposit in general population to guide them for limited capital in productive activities. Hence, in this study, the impact of economic freedom index on the development of the banking sector in Iran during 1980-2011 will be discussed. The results represent that economic freedom and its components have a significant and positive relationship to the development of banking sector. Also, based on the results, the estimation of the impact of central bank foreign assets on monetary base and Real interest rate on the development of banking sector is positive and significant. Also, the effect of public sector debt to central bank on monetary base is negative but significant.

The purpose of this study is finding the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the industry and transport sector in developed and developing provinces in Iran through Markov switching model during 2000-2010. The results indicate a positive effect of energy consumption growth on value added growth in industry and transportation both in developed and developing provinces. But, the positive effect of energy consumption will be increased by moving from recession to economic boom phrase. The results imply that the relation between energy consumption and economic growth in transportation sector is more than industry and there is an asymmetric relation between energy consumption and economic growth.

This paper studies the relationship between income inequality and shadow economy in Iranian economy during 1971-2010. After examining the structural break of the data by using Bai- Peron endogenous structural break test, and Lee- Strazicich unit root test, the study will be done by using Ordinary Least Squares. Based on the results obtained, the effect of shadow economy on income inequality is positive and by the increase of shadow economy, income inequality will be increased. Also, the results indicate that the increase of government size leads to the increase of the income inequality. In addition, the simultaneous effect of the shadow economy, economic growth and government size represent that a rise of shadow economy will increase income inequality.

The crude oil and its products as main resources of the production have main role in the setup of the world countries economy. So, the change of oil price has great impact on the production and consumption costs, and then changes goods and services prices. This paper investigates the effects of oil world price changes through imports price index on goods price and domestic services indices by using VAR models and the data of the years 1980-2014 via input-output table of the year 2006 in Iran. The results obtained upon three scenarios (10, 20 and 30 percent of oil world price increase indicate that, PPI will rise 11%, 21.8%, 32.4% and CPI 9.3%, 18.5%, 27.4% in Iran.

Development is one of the most important goals in all countries. So, all countries try to achieve economic freedom, democracy, elimination of poverty and then economic development. Human Development approach considers the people as the real resources of any country. In this research, it is tried to analyze the impact of good governance on Human Development Index in Islamic selected countries and OECD selected countries during 2005-2012 by using FGLS regression technique. To get the goal, some control variables are also selected for the model. The results represent that, in OECD countries, there is a significant positive relation between good governance and economic freedom and human development. However, in Islamic countries, there is not significant relation between these two variables in human development.