فصلنامه مدلسازی اقتصادی
سال یازدهم شماره 4 (پیاپی 40، زمستان 1396)

The main goal of this study is to introduce a general stochastic dynamic equilibrium model with sensitivity analysis for the wage rigidity in Iran's economy using the seasonal data from 1995-2014. The results showed, capital market dynamics influence the real sector of Iranian economy. The monetary policy shock has a significant impact on macroeconomic variables and stock prices. The volatilities in stock prices helps to explain the Iranian business cycles. In the case of bubble in asset prices, credit constraint in firms was decreased and their opportunity cost decreases and causes a downward pressure on the marginal costs and finally inflation decreases. By assuming wage rigidity, possibility of wage adjustment with regard to monetary shock decreases and the reaction of labour and labour supply is been more strict. And changes in production is slower than when the wage perfect flexibility exist. Based on the results, using of the model with wage rigidity in order to better simulate the real world is suggested.

The purpose of this paper is decomposition of total factor productivity (TFP) to technological progress, technical efficiency, allocative efficiency, scale effects in Iran’s manufacturing industries. For this, a stochastic Frontier production model was estimated for 135 manufacturing industries over the period 1379-1393. The findings showed that technological progress in 21 industrial groups has been grew on average 12 percent annually. In relation to technical efficiency many of technical industries have been weaken in using exist technologies or have been inefficient technically. The third factor findings showed that Iran’s manufacturing industries have been utilized from scale effects. In relation to allocative efficiency, also, all groups have experienced negative growth except Recycle group. In result, among components of total factor productivity, allocative efficiency has been more unfavorable and it refers to in Iran’s economy the resources allocate in unfavorable. On the base of the results, improvement in financing system, increasing in private sector capacitance, improvement in business space are suggested.

The major aim of this paper is the survey of impact of trade and financial openness on ecological footprint in selected developing countries. In this paper, it has been tried to test the effect of trade and financial openness on ecological footprint in the form of simultaneous-equation system on the base of panel data to the years from 1994 to 2014. The results show, there are several factors, which can affect the trade and financial openness and cannot be considered as exogenous variables. Considering trade and financial openness as endogenous variables and the factors influencing them, the impact of such variables on the ecological footprint index can be examined more precisely. On this basis, trade openness has positive and significant effect on ecological footprint index (negative effect on environment quality). On the other hand, according to shelter of pollution hypothesis financial openness variable has positive and significant effect on the ecological footprint index.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of existence of mark-up shocks, which is a criterion for monopolistic structure of industries on intensification of stagflation phenomenon in Iran’s economy. For this purpose, it has been utilized by the methodology of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium during the period of 1959-2014. The findings showed that mark-up shock increases price and decreases production which shows the existence of stagflation. Meanwhile, the mark-up shock will instantly decrease consumption and investment. As a result, mark-up shock does not have a positive effect on the economy as it tend to produce stagflation. Based on the results, it is possible that by consideration anti-monopoly laws it can be prevented increasing the mark-up.

The purpose of this paper is to study empirically the convergence of democracy in developing countries. For this purpose, the spatial econometric and panel data approach was used during the period 1990- 2014. The results show that the geographic proximity of countries has a positive and significant effect on democracy. In other words, on average, the increase in the level of democracy in the geographic neighbors has led to a 6 percent increase in democracy, which reflects the political influence of each other. Also, foreign aids does not have a significant effect on the spread of democracy in developing countries. In general, the spatial effects of democracy or the theory of diffusion in developing countries are confirmed. Therefore, According to the theory of diffusion and convergence of democracy, increase or decrease in democracy in a country can increase or decrease democracy in neighboring countries.

The aim of this paper is to model allocation of resources based on a stochastic dynamic optimization model in the banking system of Iran. To this end, using the bank level data by the Euler-Marviam simulation method, simulation of resource allocation model and optimal allocation time Resources were obtained numerically over the course of the 24-month period. The results showed that important variables such as expected rate of profit, profit risk and fluctuation of each type of facility have a significant impact on their share. Also, the findings show that whatever the expected profit of the facility increases and the risk and fluctuation of it decreases, it will account for more share of the various types of facilities. Based on the results, the specialized entry of banks to participatory facilities and increase their share is proposed to increase profitability.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the usefulness of voluntary disclosure based on the macro components of the International Accounting Standards Board and the judgment of investors in the companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange during the period of 2011 and 2015. To this end, 127 companies were selected using systematic elimination sampling method and tested using the Mechelli, Cimini and Mazzocchetti model. A checklist to measure the voluntary disclosure of companies with five dimensions of business nature, goals, business strategies, resources, risks and communications, results of company operations and performance measurement criteria was used. The findings show that, in general, voluntary disclosure of the main components of the business model provides a higher value relation than the limited disclosure components. Based on these findings, it is suggested that corporate executives with more attention to these indicators provide more precise conditions for users of financial statements.