فصلنامه دانش پیشگیری و مدیریت بحران
سال دوم شماره 2 (پیاپی 4، تابستان 1391)

Today, earthquakes threaten urban communities and built environment. In the first decade of the twenty-first century, more than 680,000 people have lost their lives in earthquakes all over the world. It is thought that one of the leading causes of high mortality rates in the past earthquakes is due to the delayed assistance to the victims. In the response phase after disaster, relief activities and lifeline and important facilities’ performance like hospitals will play an important role in saving lives. Estimating the possible damage from an earthquake in Tehran is one of the main components of emergency response operations in the early hours and days after the probable earthquake. To achieve this goal, Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization (TDMMO) has done the vulnerability assessment of Tehran hospitals. Knowing their physical vulnerability can help us to estimate the remaining capacity after the earthquake and make many managerial decisions. In this paper, vulnerability assessment and damage estimation for hospitals in Tehran is done by using the HAZUS methodology which is released by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in cooperation with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS). In this way, the fragility curves are used to estimate the probability of reaching or exceeding each of 4 damage states. In this study, Tehran hospitals probability of damage at different levels for a assumed earthquake presented as the scenario is calculated. The results showed that 41 of the existing hospitals don’t have good performance in Niavaran earthquake scenario.

Most of the crises have been aggravated by adverse climatic conditions, escalating human death toll. Regarding past experience of crises, minimum temperature factor is of remarkable importance among different climatic determinants since crises occurring in bad temperature circumstances create double needs for victims and influence rescue and relief efforts. Being aware of climatic conditions and minimum temperature, in particular, could be therefore helpful in prior planning for disaster and organizing the victim's priorities as well as relief and rescue teams so as to reduce the damages and tolls of temperature fall. Raw data gathered from climatology weather stations to recognize and determine minimum temperature changes in Charmahal and Bakhtiari province during various months of the year and to plan for managing disasters especially preparatory, rescue and relief provisions. After statistical calculation, the minimum amount of average temperature was obtained and segregated for all the 12 months of the year and zoning map of temperature for each month was achieved through processing by geographical information system (GIS) software. According to segregated zoning maps of minimum of monthly average temperature, temperature intervals of each month of the year were specified with which the minimum and maximum temperature for each month could be determined. The highest minimum average temperature of Charmahal and Bakhtiari province varies from -2.8 degrees centigrade to 22.6 degrees centigrade. The warmest month of the year relates to July (Tir to Mordad months) with the average temperature of 22.6 degrees Centigrade, in contrast to the lowest minimum average temperature of Charmahal and Bakhtiary province ranging from -21 to 5.3 degrees centigrade in Day and Bahman months. Finally the warmest and coldest months of the year were ranked.

District 22 of Tehran Municipality with an area of 10,000 hectares is one of the main districts considered as a physical structure for the future of Tehran esp. the eastern part of Tehran. This issue, in turn, shows the attention needed for crisis management issues in this district. One of the most important measures to be taken in parallel with crisis management is making decisions for relief operations. The objective of this study is to find appropriate location for establishing relief teams during earthquakes in area 1 of Tehran Municipal District 22.

In this respect, effective parameters and factors in establishing such location during earthquakes were gathered. Gathering data was done through field study and literature review. Then, the area considered for site location was studied. To analyse the data gathered from relief centers Geographical Information System (GIS) was applied; the derived maps showed the facilities and limitations of the supposed area. Therefore, appropriate buildings for establishing relief teams were identified. In order to find the optimal location among the established present locations, hierarchy analysis model (AHP) was used.

After analysing the effective criteria in site location for relief centers and preparing site maps for appropriate locations for establishing relief teams, we came to conclusions and recommendations were given.

The 23 October 2011 Van Province (the cities of Van and Ercis) in southeast of Turkey, about 150 km away from the Iranian borderline (West Azerbaijan Province) with a magnitude of 7.2 caused 644 deaths and ruined buildings in cities of Van and Ercis in Van Province. This case study is based on the reports of different organizations during and after the Van earthquake of 23 November 2011. The disaster management and search and rescue operations during and after the event is considered and the crisis management is studied during the 17 days after the earthquake. The Study of Van earthquake may be noteworthy for Iran because of the similarities in culture and climate and geographical and seismological situations in NW Iran and eastern Turkey.

Tehran is prone to a variety of calamities. Therefore, many actions have been implemented to either prevent or mitigate the impacts of possible crises, some organizations have been established and those who regard Tehran disaster management as a profession and expertise have taken action. In the era in which human resources have the greatest position and importance in tangible and intangible assets, appropriate human resources strategy in the city of Tehran is regarded as an undeniable necessity. Due to the multiple activities of different people with variety of specialists in disaster management, the only way of tapping into proficient individuals and accurate measures in this realm is to take advantage of strategic management of human resource principles. By using this review study in which uses a literature review of disaster management and strategic management of human resource's theoretical foundations in addition to making use of the experience and knowledge of specialists and activists of these spheres, integrated human resource's strategy model has been discerned to be the most adaptable model to conditions of crrisis management for Tehran. In normal circumstances (i.e. pre-disaster phase), the dominant and main strategy for disaster management for Tehran should be commitment-based one, whereas contractual-based strategy should be the main priority in calamitous circumstances (i.e. post-disaster phase).

Natural disasters have constantly been a big challenge in sustainable development. In order to reach this development, using vulnerability reduction patterns and models is very essential. Therefore, disaster risk reduction is of great importance and should find its proper place in national policies of every country in order to provide an appropriate condition for effective risk reduction in various levels. In this regard, promoting preparedness of the society for encountering future events and their capacities to resist the heavy pressures of disasters needs a comprehensive and widespread planning. This review article uses literature review related to resilience to introduce different resilience model. The society's capacity is called "resilience" in human science which will be addressed in this paper. Its definitions and few resilience models are also presented. At the end, suggestions are made for developing, maintaining and obtaining resilience in disasters.

Strong motion earthquake warning (also known as earthquake early warning) is the rapid detection of an earthquake underway,the estimation of the ground shaking likely to result, and the issuance of an alert to people in the region where the groundshaking is likely to be hazardous. The last decade has seen rapid development of methodologies for early warning, which include the use of strong motion observations close to the epicenter to provide warnings at greater distances, the use of p-waveobservations across a network to locate the event and map the distribution of likely strong ground motion, and the use of ap-wave detection at a single station to estimate the likely shaking intensity at the same station. These approaches have beenlisted in the order of increasing warning time, but the additional warning time comes at the expense of certainty. The earliera warning is provided the greater the likelihood of false and missed alarms and the greater the uncertainty in the estimatedshaking intensity. Typical warning times range from a few seconds to tens of seconds; the upper limit is about 1 min. Identifiedapplications include personal protective measures where individuals move to a safe-zone within a few feet; automatedmechanical response including stopping trains and isolating sensitive and hazardous machinery and chemicals; and situationawareness by large organizations that can help prevent cascading failures and be availableBefore shaking disrupts communications. Large-scale public warning systems are currently operational in mexico and japan,and smaller systems are used in romania, turkey, and taiwan. Testing is underway by seismic networks in many other countries;however, implementation will require significant financial, political, and sociological hurdles to be crossed.