فهرست مطالب

جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی - پیاپی 4 (زمستان 1391)

نشریه جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی
پیاپی 4 (زمستان 1391)

  • تاریخ انتشار: 1391/12/20
  • تعداد عناوین: 8
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  • علیرضا صادقی نیا، بهلول علیجانی، پرویز ضیاییان فیروزآبادی صفحه 1
    در این پژوهش ساختار فضایی – زمانی جزیره حرارتی شهر تهران بین سال های 1986 تا 2010 مطالعه شد. بدین منظور به کمک تصاویر چند زمانه TM (13 تصویر)، دمای سطح زمین با استفاده از الگوریتم تک باندی کین و همکارانش (2001) استخراج شد. سپس با استفاده از روش های آمار کلاسیک، تغییرات فضایی و زمانی دمای سطحی تهران بررسی شد. بررسی تغییرات زمانی دمای سطحی نشان داد که در طول دوره مطالعه، الگوی توزیع دمای سطحی دچار تغییر شده، مقدار مساحت دماهای متوسط و بسیار خنک شهر کاسته شده است و برعکس مفدار مساحت دماهای بسیار بالا (نواحی بسیار گرم) افزایش قابل ملاحظه ای یافته است. بررسی تغییرات زمانی شدت جزیره حرارتی تهران نیز نشان داد که مقدار شاخص نسبت جزیره حرارتی روند افزایشی دارد و از 11/0 برای سال 1986 به 15/0 برای سال 2010 رسیده است. با توجه به پراکنش فضایی دمای سطحی، جزیره حرارتی، کانون اصلی خود (فرودگاه مهرآباد) را حفظ کرده است و در پیرامون این کانون اصلی خوشه های داغ جدیدی در سمت غرب (منطقه21 و غرب منطقه 22) و جنوب غرب فرودگاه مهرآباد (بخش هایی از مناطق 18 و 19) ظهور یافته اند. نتایج این مطالعه نشان داد که جزیره حرارتی تهران به سمت بخش هایی گسترش یافته است (غرب و جنوب غرب تهران) که با کاهش شدید پوشش گیاهی و بیشترین گسترش کاربری های صنعتی- کارگاهی و انبارداری مواجه شده اند.
    کلیدواژگان: تهران، جزیره حرارتی، تحلیل فضایی، زمانی، دمای سطح زمین، گرمایش سیاره ای
  • علی اکبر شمسی پور، فهیمه نجیب زاده، زینب حسین پور صفحه 19
    جهت وزش بادها و شرایط تلاطمی و شارهای درون جو مجاور سطح زمین از مهم ترین عوامل جوی موثر در الگوی پراکنش و پخش انواع آلاینده های هوا پس از خروج از منابع انتشارات آن هاست. در این پژوهش با استفاده از شاخص ترمودینامیکی ترکیبی اولری لاگرانژی (EDMF) موجود در مدل میان مقیاس آلودگی هوا (TAPM)، الگوی پراکنش آلاینده ها در جو مجاور سطح زمین در شرایط هوای ناپایدار و وزش باد در شهر تهران مورد مطالعه قرار گرفت. برای انتخاب روزهای مورد بررسی از داده های سه ساعتی سه ایستگاه هواشناسی سطح شهر تهران استفاده شد. بنابراین دو روز دارای وزش باد قابل توجه در هر سه ایستگاه همدید مورد بررسی شامل یک روز از دوره گرم سال و یک روز از دوره سرد سال انتخاب شد و با تهیه نقشه های جوی سطحی و ترازهای بالا وضعیت عمومی هوای حاکم بر منطقه مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. داده های انتشارات از دو منبع نیروگاه و پالایشگاه نفت تهران واقع در جنوب شهر به مدل معرفی شد. اجرای مدل در ورودی هواشناسی با سه یاخته تودرتو با ابعاد افقی 4، 9/3 و 3 کیلومتر و ورودی آلودگی با ابعاد 1000، 975 و 750 متر تعریف شد. ورودی آلودگی بر مبنای مدل های اولرین و لاگرانژین تعریف و خروجی های آن ها برای درونی ترین شبکه محاسبه شد. نتایج حاصل از شبیه سازی حاکی از آن است که شرایط وزش باد، افزایش میزان انرژی جنبشی تلاطم ناشی از سرعت باد و شرایط ناپایدار جوی، با انتقال افقی آلاینده ها و ایجاد حرکات قائم فرازشی سبب تعدیل آلودگی می شود.
    کلیدواژگان: آلودگی هوا، تهران، شاخص های ترمودینامیکی، TAPM، EDMF
  • امین محمدی استادکلایه، سید حسن مطیعی لنگرودی، محمدرضا رضوانی، مجتبی قدیری معصوم صفحه 37
    بارش باران های شدید در مرداد 1384 در شرق استان گلستان منجر به وقوع دو سیل ویرانگر گردید که از خسارت بار ترین سیل های رخ داده در کشور بودند. به منظور جلوگیری از تکرار مجدد رویداد سیل در مناطق سیل زده، اقدام به انتقال سه روستا به صورت محدود و همچنین جابه جایی توام با تجمیع یازده روستا به منطقه پیشکمر گردید. هدف از انجام تحقیق حاضر، بررسی تاثیرات جابه جایی روستاهای آسیب دیده از سیل بر کیفیت زندگی ساکنین با استفاده از شاخص های ذهنی است. بدین منظور 10 قلمرو کیفیت زندگی شامل اشتغال، درآمد و سرمایه، مشارکت اجتماعی، بهداشت، رفاه اجتماعی، آموزش، امنیت، مسکن، محیط طبیعی و اطلاعات و ارتباطات برای مطالعه انتخاب شد. جامعه آماری این تحقیق خانوارهای ساکن در شهر پیشکمر و سه روستای قولاق کسن، بق قجه بالا و بق قجه پایین در استان گلستان بود. برای تعیین تعداد پرسشنامه از فرمول کوکران استفاده شد و پرسشنامه های مورد استفاده (279 نمونه) از سوالات بسته با پاسخ هایی در طیف لیکرت پنج مقیاسی متناسب با قلمرو های عمده زندگی تشکیل شد. پس از تحلیل آماری اطلاعات پرسشنامه، نتایج نشان داد که میانگین رضایت از کیفیت زندگی در الگوی جابه جایی محدود و الگوی تجمیع به ترتیب 36/3 و 67/3 است که بیشتر از میانگین نظری (3) است. این امر نشان دهنده بهبود وضعیت این قلمرو نسبت به دوره قبل از اسکان مجدد در هر دو الگوی مورد مطالعه است. همچنین بررسی ها اختلاف معنی داری را در میزان رضایت از کیفیت زندگی بین الگوهای تجمیع و جابه جایی نشان می دهد.
    کلیدواژگان: کیفیت زندگی، اسکان مجدد، تجمیع روستاها، سیلاب، استان گلستان
  • قاسم عزیزی، محسن ارسلانی، عزت الله ارسلانی، رضا صفایی راد صفحه 51
    حلقه های درختی می تواند به عنوان یک شاخص اقلیمی مفید جهت مطالعه نوسانات ماهانه و فصلی متغیرهای اقلیمی طی سده های گذشته به کار روند. برای به دست آوردن یک گاهشناسی منطقه ای، تعداد 54 نمونه از دو گونه درختی بلوط ایرانی و بلوط مازودار در رویشگاه دالاب در استان ایلام و رویشگاه شینه در استان لرستان برداشت شد. در این پژوهش پهنای حلقه های رویشی سالانه درختان توسط دستگاه LINTAB5 مجهز به نرم افزار TSAP مورد اندازه گیری گرفت و تطابق زمانی منحنی های رویشی درختان دو رویشگاه به دو شیوه چشمی و آماری توسط نرم افزار مذکور به انجام رسید. با تعیین میزان EPS، مطمئن ترین بخش از گاهشناسی منطقه ای (2010-1840) برای بازسازی مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. داده های دمای بیشینه ماهانه و فصلی ایستگاه های هواشناسی ایلام (2010-1987) و خرم آباد (2010-1951) برای واسنجی گاهشناسی منطقه ای در طول دوره آماری مشترک به کار گرفته شد. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که دمای بیشینه در فصل رویشی و فصل قبل از آن بر روی رویش درختان بلوط این منطقه تاثیر منفی دارد. دمای بیشینه بهار- تابستان در منطقه مورد مطالعه طی دوره بازسازی شده (2010-1840) روند صعودی را نشان می دهد. دمای بیشینه طی دوره بازسازی شده در سال های 2010، 2000، 1984، 1966، 1958، 1955، 1952، 1945-1944، 1933، 1929 و 1904 افزایش شدید داشته است.
    کلیدواژگان: گاهشناسی منطقه ای، بلوط، تغییرات درونسالی، حلقه های درختی، اقلیم شناسی درختی
  • علی یوسفی، فاطمه قاسمی ادکان، حسین تقوی گرجی صفحه 65
    هدف مقاله حاضر ارائه توصیفی واقع نگار از رفتارهای پرخطر رانندگی در شهر مشهد و شناسایی فرآیندهای تشدید یا تضعیف این رفتارها با تکیه بر چهار ویژگی شخصیتی راننده شامل تحریک جویی، خشم، پرخاشگری و سلامت روان است. نتایج پژوهش حاضر بر روی 160 پاسخگوی خودرو سوار که به روش نمونه گیری چند مرحله ای در مشهد برگزیده و مورد مصاحبه قرار گرفته اند نشان داد که اگرچه در مجموع میل به انجام رفتارهای پرخطر رانندگی در بین پاسخگویان پایین است، اما تحریک جویی، پرخاشگری و خشم باعث تشدید و سلامت روان باعث تضعیف آن می گردد. در این میان، بیشترین اثرگذاری مربوط به پرخاشگری است و متغیرهای تحریک جویی، سلامت روان و خشم در مراتب بعدی قرار می گیرند. به علاوه پرخاشگری و تحریک جویی عمدتا به طور مستقیم و سلامت روان و خشم به طور غیر مستقیم بر رفتارهای پرخطر رانندگی تاثیرگذارند.
    کلیدواژگان: رفتارپرخطر رانندگی، تحریک جویی، خشم رانندگی، پرخاشگری، سلامت روان
  • امیر صفاری، آرش اخدر صفحه 79
    زمین لغزش ها نوعی حرکت دامنه ای هستند که نه تنها سازه های مهندسی مثل جاده ها، خطوط راه آهن و سدها را تحت تاثیر قرار می دهند، بلکه تلفات جانی را هم به دنبال دارند. هدف از این تحقیق، پهنه بندی خطر زمین لغزش های محدوده جاده ارتباطی مریوان - سنندج در استان کردستان (غرب ایران)، از طریق وزن دهی به معیارهای اصلی و با استفاده از مدل نسبت فراوانی و توابع عضویت فازی در نرم افزار Arc GIS 10 است. به منظور پهنه بندی خطر زمین لغزش، معیارهای ارتفاع، شیب، جهت شیب، فاصله از گسل، واحدهای سنگ شناسی، فاصله از آبراهه ها، فاصله از جاده، نوع کاربری اراضی، پوشش گیاهی، خاک و بارش مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. بعد از مرحله فازی سازی معیارهای موثر در وقوع زمین لغزش های منطقه با استفاده از روش های مذکور، نقشه های پهنه بندی خطر زمین لغزش جهت ارزیابی این دو روش از طریق عملگرهای گامای فازی با لانداهای 7/0، 8/0 و 9/0 تهیه شد و با مقایسه نقشه های نهایی، مدل ایده آل برای پهنه بندی خطر زمین لغزش در این محدوده انتخاب شد. نتایج نشان داد که از میان دو روش مورد بحث، استفاده از مدل نسبت فراوانی به دلیل فازی سازی مناسب هر معیار با استناد به نقشه های پراکنش زمین لغزش های رخ داده و نحوه تفکیک طبقات خطر، روش مناسب تری برای پهنه بندی زمین لغزش ها در این جاده ارتباطی محسوب می شود.
    کلیدواژگان: جاده ارتباطی مریوان - سنندج، زمین لغزش، ارزیابی، پهنه بندی، نسبت فراوانی، مدل فازی
  • منیژه قهرودی تالی، بهاره میرزاخانی، آتنا عسگری صفحه 97
    پدیده کویرزایی از مشکلات کشور هایی است که حوضه های آبریز بسته دارند. در پست ترین نقاط این حوضه ها، تالاب ها و دریاچه هایی وجود دارند که باقیمانده آخرین دوره یخچالی هستند. در دهه اخیر تغییرات اقلیمی، کمبود بارندگی، فعالیت های انسانی و سوء مدیریت منابع آب سبب کاهش ورودی آب به تالاب ها شده و خشک شدن فصلی و یا دائمی تالاب ها را به دنبال داشته است. این خشکی منجر به رسوب کانی های محلول به ویژه نمک ها شده و تالاب ها را به کویر تبدیل کرده است. تالاب میقان نیز که حوضه آبریزی به مساحت حدود 5528 کیلومتر مربع را زهکشی می کند با معضل کاهش ورودی آب و پدیده کویرزایی مواجه است. این پژوهش با هدف بررسی گسترش کویری شدن در تالاب میقان انجام شده و داده های مورد استفاده در آن شامل نقشه توپوگرافی، نقشه زمین شناسی و داده باند های انعکاسی از تصویرETM+ و تصویرIRS-P6 سال 2007 است. روش تحقیق شامل تحلیل مولفه های اصلی (PCA) مبتنی بر ماتریس همبستگی، تحلیل های دانه سنجی از 11 نمونه رسوب و بررسی های میکروسکوپی از 120 دانه از هر نمونه رسوب بوده است. نتایج تحلیل مولفه های اصلی در تصویر ETM+ و تصویر IRS، دو سطح را شناسایی کرد که سطوح درونی متعلق به PC2 و سطوح بیرونی مربوط به1PC در هر دو تصویر بوده است. بررسی های مورفوسکوپی مقاطع نشان داد که بخش خشک این تالاب قبلا زیر آب بوده و آثار هوازدگی های شیمیایی در مقاطع وجود دارد. همچنین ضریب سایش نمونه ها نشان از فرسایش آبی در رسوبات نمکی و ژیپس دارد. بنابراین می توان نتیجه گرفت که تالاب میقان در طول تحولات اقلیمی، چنین خشکی ای را تجربه نکرده بوده است و اگر روند خشکی ادامه یابد این تالاب به کویری دائمی تبدیل می شود که امکان احیای آن وجود نخواهد داشت.
    کلیدواژگان: جاده تالاب، کویرزایی، میقان، بحران آب
  • علی زنگی آبادی، زهرا اسماعیلیان صفحه 113
    امروزه در کشور ما شهرنشینی رشد فزاینده ای یافته و هر ساله در کشور شاهد پیدایش شهرهای جدیدی هستیم. نظر به این که ایران به دلیل شرایط خاص طبیعی و جغرافیایی خود، همواره در معرض خطر بلایای طبیعی بوده و حوادث ناگواری را تجربه کرده است، به نظر می رسد که برنامه ریزی جهت مصون سازی هرچه بیشتر مساکن شهری ضرورت دارد. هدف پژوهش حاضر شناسایی وضعیت آسیب پذیری مساکن شهر اصفهان در برابر خطر بلایای طبیعی و اولویت بندی شاخص های مورد بررسی بوده است. نوع تحقیق به صورت پیمایشی، تحلیلی و مبتنی بر مشخصات کمی و کیفی مساکن شهر اصفهان است و جامعه آماری را مساکن شهر اصفهان تشکیل داده و روش و طرح نمونه برداری به صورت نمونه برداری احتمالی بوده است. در این راستا مساکن مناطق 14گانه شهر اصفهان به عنوان حوزه آماری انتخاب گردید و داده های مورد نیاز جهت مطالعه شامل داده های فضایی (شبکه معابر محدوده به تفکیک عرض، واحدهای تفکیکی در مقیاس قطعات ملکی، انواع کاربری ها شامل اطلاعات لازم از جمله مساحت قطعات، نوع کاربری و...) و داده های آماری و توصیفی (نوع کاربری، تعداد طبقات، نوع سازه، تراکم ساختمانی، تراکم جمعیتی تعداد خانوار در واحد مسکونی، تعداد جمعیت هر واحد مسکونی، کاربری های خطرناک، عمر سازه ها، سال تاسیس بنا و...) بود. پس از جمع آوری داده های مورد نیاز، پایگاه اطلاعاتی لازم در محیط نرم افزاری SPSS تشکیل شد. حجم نمونه به صورت نمونه گیری احتمالی با استفاده از فرمول کوکران با سطح اطمینان 5/95، تعداد 340 نمونه محاسبه شد و در نهایت با مقایسه آسیب پذیری وضع موجود در مناطق 14گانه شهر، شاخص های آسیب پذیری مسکن اولویت بندی گردید. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که میزان آسیب پذیری مساکن شهر در برابر خطر بلایای طبیعی زیاد است و مشخص شد که متغیرهای «دسترسی به ساختمان»، «دسترسی به طبقات ساختمان» و «قدمت بنا» بیشترین تاثیر را در آسیب پذیری مساکن شهر دارند.
    کلیدواژگان: بلایای طبیعی، اولویت بندی، شاخص های آسیب پذیری، مساکن شهراصفهان
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  • Alireza Sadeghinia, Bohlul Alijani, Parviz Zeaieanfirouzabadi Page 1
    Introduction
    Urbanisation changes the land cover types in urban areas and results in different climatic conditions، which has been termed as “Urban climate”. Urban climates are different from those of less built-up areas in terms of air temperature، humidity، wind speed and direction، and amount of precipitation. The previous researches show that urban areas are warmer than surrounding rural areas creating the «urban heat island» (UHI) (Rose and Devadas; 2009، 2). The buildings، concrete، asphalt and industrial activity of urban areas causes UHI. Replacing natural land cover with pavements، buildings and other infrastructures takes away the natural cooling effects. Also، tall buildings and narrow streets can heat the air trapped between them and reduce airflow. In addition، heat from vehicles، factories and air conditioners adds heat to the surroundings، further exacerbating the heat island effect. UHI can impact local weather and climate، altering local wind patterns، spurring the development of clouds and fog، increasing the number of lightning events، and influencing the rates of precipitation. Furthermore، the poor air quality that results from the increased energy usage for cooling purposes in heat-island city can cause discomfort for humans and affect health، aggravating asthma and promoting other respiratory illnesses (Liu and Zhang، 2011:158). Thermal remote sensing data play an important role in the study of UHI. First، UHI is studied using NOAA AVHRR thermal data (Balling and Brazell، 1988:1289-1293; Gallo et al.، 1993:899-908; Gallo and Owen، 1988:159-172; Streutker، 2002:282-289). Later، thermal infrared data TM، ETM+ and ASTER are used to study UHI more precisely (Weng، 2001:1999-2014; Weng et al.، 2006:1275-1286; Amiri et al.، 2009:2606; Flahatlar et al.، 2011). Meanwhile، in some studies، The spatial and temporal variations of UHI are detected by using multi- temporal thermal images of landasat TM and ETM (Mo et al.، 2011:4616-4622). Several researchers (Akbari، 1379; jangi، 1383; shakiba et al.، 1388:56-69; namdari، 1388; malekpour and taleai، 1389:89-102، and 1390:29-42) have studied the UHI in Tehran. But none of them have presented a comprehensive picture of its spatial and temporal variations. Thus، the main objective of this study is to study the spatial and temporal variations of UHI in Tehran urban area. Study Area: The city of Tehran as capital of Islamic republic of Iran is located between latitudes of 35°33’10“N to 35°50’12“N and longitudes of 51°05’17“E to 51°37’36“E with an average elevation of 1600 m، is surrounded by high mountains in the north and north east. Tehran experiences warm summers and cold winters. Tehran is a major center of culture، industry، commerce and transportation. The biggest city of the country، Tehran exhibits rapid population growth and urban expansion in the form of encroachment to the limited agricultural areas (malekpour et al.، 2010). Due to its complicated expansion and urban structure and function the temperature variations are very important for its life and existence. Thus this study has tried to analyse the spatial and temporal variations of its temperature.
    Material And Methods
    In this paper، multi- temporal Landsat TM images (13 images) are used for the analysis of UHI in Tehran. LST is extracted using the mono-window algorithm presented in Qin et al (2001). Then، using appropriate statistical methods، spatial and temporal variations of LST were analysed. Based on thermal radiance transfer equation، the mono-window algorithm only requires three parameters of emissivity، transmittance and effective mean atmospheric temperature - to retrieve LST from Landsat TM 6. The spatial model to retrieve LST from Landsat TM using ERDAS spatial model tool is designed. In this model، only two measured parameters are required; near-surface air temperature and water vapour content of the atmosphere at the time of satellite pass، which can be easily obtained from synoptic weather stations of Tehran. These two parameters are then converted to air transmittance and effective mean atmospheric temperature. The third required parameter is the emissivity، which can be calculated from the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI). The remaining useful data can all be obtained from the Meta file in the satellite image data. It is impossible to compare thermal data from different years directly using absolute LST. Therefore، a normalisation technique (Xu et al.، 2009) has been used to compare the computed LST of different years. The LST images were rescaled to the same level between 0 and 1 using the maximum and minimum values for those images. Then temporal variations were explored. The intensity of UHI from 1986 to 2010 was evaluated by the urban heat island ratio index (URI) (Mu et al.، 2011). The URI was proposed to quantitatively compare the UHI differences in different years based on the ratio of UHI area to whole city area.
    Results And Discussion
    The temporal changes of LST during the study period showed that the distribution pattern of LST has changed. The area of moderate and very cool temperature of the city has been decreased but the area of very high temperatures (very hot areas) has been increased significantly. It is completely clear that spatial extent of UHI along with the spatial development of Tehran have been increased during this period of 25 years (1986 to 2010) and the extent of UHI has increased from 83 square kilometres (13 percent) to 99 square kilometres (16 percent). The temporal change of the intensity of UHI also showed that URI has increased. The URI has increased from 0. 11 in 1986 to 0. 15 in 2010. According to the spatial distribution of LST، UHI has maintained its principal center (Mehrabad airport) and The new hot clusters have emerged in the west (District 21 and west of district 22) and south- west (portion of District 18 and 19) of the Mehrabad airport. Our study showed that UHI of Tehran has extended toward the areas with an intensive decrease in vegetation and the extensive development of industries، working places and warehouses (the west and south-west of Tehran).
    Conclusion
    In this study، the mono-window algorithm is applied to retrieve LST in Tehran using the Landsat TM data. Then، using appropriate statistical methods، spatial and temporal variations of LST are analysed. Consideration of spatial-temporal variation of LST during the study period showed that the distribution of the UHI in Tehran has changed. Center of the UHI that had already been located on Mehrabad airport has extended toward the west and southwest of Tehran. The metropolitan of Tehran has witnessed a very fast urban sprawl during the study years from 1986 to 2010. The urban expansion was accompanied by increased UHI intensity of 0. 11 in 1986 to 0. 15 in 2010 over an almost 25-year period and resulted in the development of the severe UHI in the region and thus the degradation of the liveability of the city.
    Keywords: air pollution, Urbanisation, heat Islands, Tehran metropolis
  • Aliakbar Shamsipour, Fahimeh Najibzadeh, Zeynab Hosseinpur Page 19
    Introduction
    Population growth، along with the rapid development in industrial and many urban sectors، and lack of sustainable development approach in urban planning are all caused great changes in environment in form of pollution and ravage. In urban environments، complexity of spaces and urban manmade phenomena as well as the lack of regular and continuous measurement of atmospheric elements and components such as surface fluxes، turbulence intensity، overnight stable layer depth and inversion layer، daily mixed and boundary layer and energy balance components which are generally the input of dispersion models have made uncertain mechanisms in dispersion of pollutants over Tehran. One of the important aspects in the study of air pollution is how the pollutants disperse from sources of emissions. Wind direction، turbulence conditions and fluxes in near surface atmosphere are the most important climatic factors that affect dispersion pattern and distribution of air pollutants leaving from emission sources. Study AreaTehran having a population of about 8،300،000 and a 15 million-plus metropolitan area is Iran''s largest city and urban area، and one of the largest cities in southwest Asia. Tehran (35° 42′ N، 51° 25′ E) covers an area of 750 km2 and is situated in a semi-enclosed basin south of the Alborz Mountains. Its location for a big city is unusual، since it is not near a river or even close to the sea. The average annual rainfall is approximately 230 mm، with most precipitation falling in autumn and winter months. Due to high elevation (approximately 1140 m)، aridity and latitude، the city experiences four seasons. Climate can be extremely hot in summer (with mid-day temperatures ranging between 30 oC to 40 oC)، and cold in winter when nighttime temperatures can fall below freezing point. Local precipitation is absent for six months of the year on the low-lying areas. Tehran suffers from severe air pollution and the city often covers by smog making breathing difficult and causing widespread pulmonary illnesses. It is estimated that about 27 people die each day from pollution-related diseases. According to local officials، 3،600 people died in a single month due to the hazardous air quality. 80% of the city''s air pollution is due to cars. The remaining 20% is due to industrial pollution. Other estimates suggest that motorcycles alone account for 30% of air and 50% of sound pollution in Tehran. Tehran is bound in the north by the massive Alborz mountain range that is stopping the flow of the humid Caspian wind. As a result، thermal inversion that traps Tehran''s polluted air is frequently observed.
    Material And Methods
    The methodology is based on undertaking literature review to develop theoretical foundations and explanation of the research method. In this research، three-hourly wind velocity and wind direction data and air temperature of 2006 were obtained from Geophysics، Mehrabad and the Shemal-e-Tehran weather stations (Table 1). Also atmospheric gridded data obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset for surface and 700 hPa levels for prepared synoptic maps using GrADS software (Table 2). Mehrabad upper level atmospheric data has been taken from the University of Wyoming are used to identify effective thermodynamic indices on intensified or mitigation air pollution in Tehran. Moreover، two site emission data available in SO2 of chimney exits south of Tehran including Tehran oil refinery source point and thermal power plant source point were used (Table 3). In this research، using EDMF thermodynamic index available in The Air Pollution Model (TAPM)، the dispersion pattern of pollutants in the air near the surface were studied under unstable weather and windy conditions over Tehran. Three-hourly meteorological data from three stations in Tehran were used to select two case studied. So two days with significant wind in all three weather stations were selected that they also include days of warm and cold periods. Then prevailing weather condition in synoptic-scale weather systems were evaluated by providing surface and upper level weather maps. Emission data from two point sources of Power plant and Tehran’s oil refinery in south of Tehran used as the input to model. Atmospheric model with three nested cells with 4، 3. 9، and 3 Km dimensions and pollution input with nets respectively 1000، 975، and 750 m were imported to model software. Pollution input is defined based on Eulerian and Lagrangian dispersion models، and their outputs were calculated for the innermost grid.
    Results And Discussion
    In September 27 and March 21، a low pressure is seen in the surface in southeast of Caspian Sea and a high pressure is located over northwestern Iran. Barometric trough with contours of 1008 to 1011 hPa of it is drawn to Tehran area. Wind vectors represent weak surface western wind over the area. At 4 AM local time، the values of the vertical velocity (Omega) are positive which represent the stable conditions; however، at 4 PM local time omega becomes negative up to the level of 425 hPa and represents the unstable conditions (fig 3 and 4). Based on surface synoptic map in March 21، wind vectors represent high velocity and westerly direction. At 4 AM local time، vertical velocity is positive that indicates descending conditions، but in 4 PM it becomes negative and represents ascending condition (Fig 5 and 6). The result of model output for both dates show different atmospheric conditions in different time scales. Analysis of the Probability Density Function (PDF) for the summer wind condition (September 27) show that in 66% of winds in this day show 2 and 3 m/s velocity، and more than 53% of winds blow from northwest. Figures 7 to 11 show that the instability and turbulence conditions intensify in daytime and reduce at night. Figures 12 and 13 show the differences of spatial dispersion of pollutants in the daily average with (a) Eulerian and Lagrangian dispersion models for summer under windy conditions. Analysis of windy conditions in winter (March 21) by PDF is shown in figure (15). It shows westerly winds dominant and in this time more than 85% of winds velocity is more than 3 m/s. During winter condition، dispersion of pollutants in both Eulerian and Lagrangian models are the same in terms of density and wind direction of dispersions (fig 19).
    Conclusion
    Simulation results indicate that in windy conditions of warm period، in south of Tehran with dry and hot air and soil، turbulent kinetic energy increases due to wind velocity and unstable atmospheric conditions and horizontal transfer of pollutants is associated with upward movement. Conversely، in the cold period، wind causes to increase the cooling air، so it result to decrease of turbulent kinetic energy in the atmosphere، hence pollutants are mostly transport horizontally.
    Keywords: Air pollution, thermodynamic indeces, TAPM, EDMF, Tehran
  • Amin Mohammadi Ostadkelayeh, Seyed Hassan Motiee Langerudi, Mohammad Reza Rezvani, Mojtaba Ghadiri Masoom Page 37
    Introduction
    Post-disaster Quality of Life (QoL) assessment can be considered appropriately for monitoring and evaluation recovery plans and interventions. Particular reference has been considered to both understanding various aspects of the disaster’s impacts، and establishing people’s perceptions on their living circumstances and life chances after the event. Planned and involuntary resettlement after natural disasters has been considered as a major policy in post-disaster reconstruction in developing countries over the last few decades. Studies show that resettlement can result in adverse impacts on the resettled population. Conversely، a well-planned and managed resettlement process can lead to positive long-term development outcomes. Studies on post-disaster resettlement in rural areas of Iran revealed that these actions do not respond to all the needs of residents. Occurring extreme rainfalls، in August 2005 in Eastern part of the Golestan province in North of Iran، caused two devastating flood disasters and damaged several villages. After considerably long discussions، planners and policy makers decided to relocate a significant number of villages incorporating them in larger area. Finally in this area 11 villages replaced and integrated in one place but 3 villages were replaced without integration. Study Are: The study area is located in the north east of Iran in Golestan province; between (37°، 42´) to (37°، 22´) E longitude and (55°، 54´) to (55°، 20´) N latitude. It has mild temperature with annual rainfall of approximately 450 mm. After the flood، eleven villages (Ghezelotagh، Aghtoghe، chatal، Khojelar، Koorok، Pashaei، Ghapaneolia، Ghapanesofla، Seidlar، Sheikhlar and Davaji) were replaced and integrated in one place called Pishkamar town. Three villages (Gholaghkasan، Boghghojebala and Boghghojepaein) were replaced in safer area (with 1-2 Km).
    Material And Methods
    In this research، in order to evaluate the role of post disaster resettlement on the QoL، we used subjective indicators and satisfaction levels in ten domains. The evaluated indications included environment quality، housing، education، health، personal well-being، participation، safety، information and communication، employment and income. Research method was descriptive and analytic. 279samples were randomly chosen from the residents of Pishkamar and three other villages. Data collection tool was a researcher-designed questionnaire that was conducted according to research objectives. The questionnaire was made of closed questions with answers in five-point Likert scale (1: grown much worse to 5: grown much better). In order to evaluate internal validity، at first content validity method was used to increase the validity of the questionnaire. In this method، the first step was testing the scales in the studies of QoL and poll of professors and professionals. Then، the developed questionnaire was filled out in two preliminary and final stages. Examining the answers to 30 questionnaires and doing statistical calculations was the final step. Chronbach alpha was used to evaluate the reliability and t-test was applied for data analysing.
    Results And Discussion
    Results indicated that the integrated villages (Pishkamar) improved the QoL in the aspects of environment، housing، education، individual welfare، information and communication، safety، health، but in the aspect of employment، participation and income were not improved. Besides، results showed that the relocating of three villages improved the QoL in aspects of environment، housing، education، participation، information and communication، safety، health، but in the aspects of employment، individual welfare and income were not improved. In Pishkamar town، 63. 35% of the respondents were satisfied with the quality of their lives after the integration and only less than 15. 18% of them were dissatisfied for the quality of their lives. For the respondents in Pishkamar، the mean of the scores for QoL is 3. 67 with the standard deviation of 1. 068. In case of three villages، it was 54. 55% for the people satisfaction for the quality of life and while 24% of them were dissatisfied. For the respondents in three villages، the mean of the scores for QoL was 3. 36 with the standard deviation of 1. 147.
    Conclusion
    In general، the results of the study indicate that the resettlement of villages after disaster led to significant improvement in the QoL in study area. The resettlement policy was successful in reducing the flood disaster risk and also improved QoL (by relocating villagers)، but it was not successful in permanent job creation. To reduce the negative economic impacts of resettlement، several measurements must be implemented، including: strengthening production capacity and skills (through training and technology transfer); diversification of economic activities (through the establishment of new economic activities) and increasing financial support for the most vulnerable communities.
    Keywords: Quality of life, Post disaster resettlement, rural integration, Pishkamar
  • Ghasem Azizi, Mohsen Arsalani, Ezzat Arsalani, Reza Safai Rad Page 51
    Introduction
    Long-term climate records are valuable for environmental planning، and tree rings allow records to extend to the time before the establishment of weather stations. For a better understanding of the past climate fluctuation and to mitigate the effect of climate fluctuation، dendroclimatic reconstructions have been applied in many parts of the world. Inter annual variations of climate have an intensive effect on water resources، agriculture، human settlements and regional ecosystems. The central Zagros region of Iran experiences different climatic situations over the seasons of a year. In recent years، dramatic changes in regional climate have damaged both local forests and agriculture. Weather stations cover a short time span of instrumental data in Iran. To overcome this challenge، tree rings can be used to put recent climate trends in a long-term context of climate variability. The central Zagros Mountains are one of the most important sites of oak forest in west of Iran. However، tree-ring based climate reconstructions are still scarce for this country. In this study، we present a reconstruction of temperature variations in the central Zagros Mountains using Quercus infectoria and Quercus persica tree rings over the last 250 years (1750-2010).
    Material And Methods
    The study sites are located in the central Zagros Mountain range in the west of Iran. Due to the climatic regime، there is a clear distinction between a dry (summer) and a wet (winter-spring) season in this region. Our sampling sites are covered by old-growth oak forests and have the shortest distance to meteorological stations. In this study 54 cores from two species of Quercus persica in Dalab site (Ilam province) and Q. infectoria Olive in Shineh site (Lorestan province) were extracted using an increment borer. After the sample preparation، annual ring widths were measured with a LINTAB5 measuring system. The TSAP-Win software was used for cross dating and correlations between the growth corves. The growth corves were standardized with ARSTAN program to remove none climatic effects. The Expressed Population Signal (EPS; Wigley et al، 1995) was calculated for the regional chronology (RC). Monthly and seasonal maximum temperature from Ilam (1987-2010) and Khoramabad (1951-2010) weather stations were used to calibrate the regional chronology (1750-2010) during the common period (1951-2010). Based on a linear regression model، seasonal maximum temperature of spring-summer was reconstructed over the 1840-2010 period.
    Results And Discussion
    The results of the study show that the two site chronologies are strongly correlated with each other (p)
    Keywords: Regional chronology, Oak, Interannual variations, Tree rings, Dendroclimatology
  • Ali Yousofi, Fatemeh Ghasemi Adkan, Hossein Taghavi Gorji Page 65
    Introduction
    One of the most important public health threats in the world today، is driving accidents and Iran is among the countries that in driving accidents and loss of life is huge. While 90 to 95 percent of road accidents are caused by human factors. Risky driving behaviors، the second leading cause of death and the first cause of years of life lost due top re-mature death and disability in iran considered. Meanwhile، some of the driver personality characteristics have an important share in intensifying or weakening of risky driving behaviors that most important of them are sensation seeking، angry، aggressive and has -mental health. The purpose of this paper is to present the realism descriptive of risky driving behavior in Mashhad، with a focus on the four personality characteristic، identify processes of risky driving intensifying or weakening. Study Area: The study area in this research is the city of Mashhad which includes 13 regional and 40 urban areas.
    Material And Methods
    Present study is a survey research. Research population included all 18years old and older individuals living in the city of Mashhad. Samples selected using «multi-stage cluster sampling» and a sample of 160 respondents were interviewed face to face in 2012. Manchester Driving Behavior Questionnaire is used to assess risky driving behaviors. This questionnaire consists of 24 items that made and was used by Straddling and Meadows (2000) and is regulated in three parts of lapse، errors and driving violation. For assessing driving anger used Deffenbacher Driving anger-scale (1994) that is a 14-item questionnaire. Driving Anger Expression Inventory was used to measure the aggression. This 49-item questionnaire is a self assessment tool that evaluate of people anger-express when driving. Annett Sensation Seeking Scale was used to measure sensation seeking. Annett Sensation Seeking Scale contains two sub-scales of Novelty and emotional intensity. Also، mental health questionnaire of 12 questions (GHQ-12) is used in order to assess psychiatric disorders and mental health of drivers. To verify the theoretical analysis model of risky driving behavior in which has been identified that has an influence on sensation seeking، anger، aggression and mental health variables on risky behavior، path analysis technique was used.
    Results And Discussion
    By calculating the direct and indirect effects as well as the overall impact of each factors، four influencing risky driver behaviors are found by using path analysis techniques. The results showed that anger and mental health effects on risky driving behavior are indirect، and aggression effect is direct. However، both direct and indirect sensation seeking effect. Also، results showed that sensation seeking، aggression and anger intensified and the mental health weaken /reduce risky driving behavior show the most impact on drivers risky behaviors associated with aggression (0. 35) and variables of sensation seeking (0. 26)، mental health (-0. 18) and anger (0. 09) stand on the second and third places.
    Conclusion
    Driver behavior is recognized in the majority of traffic accidents in the world and Iran، as the main cause of the accident. While driver behavior is quite influenced by the personality. Theoretical claim of present paper is that risky driving behavior consists of errors، lapses and driving violations، under the influence of a set of four features of important personalities including anger، aggression، sensation seeking، and mental health. The results of this claim examines through survey research conducted on 160 drivers in Mashhad showed that: First، willingness to perform risky driving behaviors is low and in this respect responsibility is in a situation of more or less similar. While the extent of divers anger and mental health are more than moderate، sensation seeking is moderate and aggression is lower than average. Second، sensation seeking، aggression and anger intensified and mental health weaken/reduce the risky driving behavior and maximum influence is related to aggression and sensation seeking. The mental health and anger variables are stand in the next places.
    Keywords: risky driving behavior, sensation seeking, driving anger, aggression, mental health
  • Amir Saffari, Arash Akhdar Page 79
    Introduction
    The natural phenomenon events are involved with several natural and unnatural factors that play a specific role in it event. Landslides، is example of such natural phenomena that resulted from interaction of various factors. Understanding the impact and weight of each factor by mathematical models can be solution for landslide study in term of zonation and extraction. Landslides are one of the natural hazards which may cause damage to some infrastructures such rail roads، dams، and roads، but also leads to casualties. The landslides hazard Zonation in the study area has been done in this study by using the two models namely frequency ratio model (RF) and functions of the fuzzy model over the Arc GIS 10 software. The final LHZ maps were comparing for evaluated the ideal landslides hazard zonation models. Study Area: The study area lied in Marivan – Sanandaj Road with 135 Km length located in longitude of 46˚، 07΄، 26˝ to 36˝ E and latitude of 35˚، 23΄،11˝ to 35˚، 32΄، 35˝ covered an area of 1281 square kilometers in Kurdistan Province (West of Iran). The study area is part of of Sanandaj - Sirjan techtonic zone in high Zagros range. The 10 years (2000 to 2010) average of annual precipitation in area is around 850 mm/y which is reported by Meteorological Station in Marivan city.
    Material And Methods
    In order for landslide inventory map in area، the numbers of variables such as elevation، slope، faults، roads and drainage buffers، land use/ land cover، soil type، annual rainfall، as well as rock type in from of digital maps and layers has been input in a GIS geo data base. The necessary information’s were obtained from several sources such as geology and topography maps، ETM satellite images etc. These data were weighted and analyses by both the Frequency Ratio (RF) and Fuzzy Membership Functions (FMF) models over the Arc GIS environment. The reference landslide map was provided from Iranian Forests and Rangelands bureau. Landslide Hazard Zonation map was done based on two mentions methods. In FR method، weighting of the criteria was done by combining the landslides distribution map with the individual field measurements. In second method we determine the weights of criteria using fuzzy membership functions. The weight outcome classes of each criterion’s in a both methods were normalized (between zero and one)، where the Fuzzy Membership Functions and frequency ratio equation used for standardization over the all prepared raster maps. The final LHZ maps were superimposed and different fuzzy Gama operators applied for map accuracy evaluation. The result has shown the LHZ class’s outcome from FR method in more precision than FMF with gamma operator result of 0. 7، 0. 8 and 0. 9.
    Results And Discussion
    The results showed that most of the landslide occurred in an areas with slope of more than 70 percent especially in slop with azimuth 0 to 90 (north and northeast slopes). It is also observed that the area with elevation in range of 1049-1350 m and shallow soil over rock as well as irrigated cultivate land are more sensitive to the land sliding. In terms of distance from other phenomena، the 100 meter radius from roads and faults were the most susceptible sloped region for landslides. The two main evaluation faction applied methods is: A - Evaluation of RF method and FMF for standardization of criteria apply for the landslides occurrence. The study outcome showed that LHZ using the standardized with frequency ratio model is more precision rather than other. This is because of fuzzy weight extraction of for each criteria class in sliding or non-sliding accordance pixels and frequency ratio equation applied. B - Evaluation of RF method and FMF for preparation of the LHZ maps. The fuzzy gamma operator was applied over the superimposing standard landslides hazard zonation maps of the area that prepared by two methods. The high precision LHZ map was selected as amp with greater percentage of the sliding pixels. This study showed that the accuracy of hazard zonation maps for sliding processes was directly associated with important steps of criteria class standardization and methods selected. Out of two discussed methods، the FR method was marked as suitable method for LHZ in term of criteria class standardization and landslides occurrence pixels. In an area such as study area (Marivan – Sanandaj Road)
    Conclusion
    The Marivan – Sanandaj Road have importance role in international transit and markets access in the western part of Iran. In this study، the weighting of the criteria for the occurrence of landslide were compared by frequency ratio method and fuzzy membership functions. The outcome result based on spatial and statistical analysis was showed frequency ratio method as precision method. This because of high capability of this method for criteria class extraction and standardization over the land sliding input map as well as reality in fuzzy functional.
    Keywords: Marivan – Sanandaj road_landslide_Evaluation_zonation_frequency ratio_fuzzymethod
  • Manijeh Ghahroudi Tali, Bahareh Mirzakhani, Atena Asgari Page 97
    Introduction
    Desertification Phenomena is a critical problem in dry climates. everglades، playas and shallow lakes are the main landscapes in the closed basins of Iran، which are formed under tectonic and climatic influences during the Pleistocene and Holocene periods. Duo to climate changes، lack of precipitation، human activity and mismanagement of water resources، entering water has been reduced and caused seasonally or permanently dryness. The drought led to deposition of dissolved salt minerals and the pond has turned into the desert. Meghan is drained catchment area of approximately 5،528 square kilometres، which has been faced to water reduction and desertification phenomena. This study was performed to investigate spreading of desert in the Meghan everglade. Meghan wetland is located in the northeast of Arak in Farahan plain. Its area is range from about 100 to 110 square kilometres. Meghan basin is made along the fault lines and its water is salty. Its height is 1،660m above sea level and is composed of two parts: the mountainous area and the sediment plain.
    Material And Methods
    The data is included to topography map 1:25000، Aster Data، Geology map 1:100000، 6 spectral bands and panchromatic of ETM+ images and 4 spectral bands of IRS-P6 images 2007. The method has the following steps: • Principal components analysis based on correlation matrix was used to detect deposited faces from ETM+ and IRS-P6 images. • To examine sedimentology of faces، 11 samples were taken of the innermost and outermost zones، which obtained from the principal components analysis. • Granulometry were performed and sorting coefficients were calculated by the standard deviation of the integrated graphics provided by Folk (Equation 1) Equation 1• Regular rate of deposition was calculated according to Equation 2. • What ever between the maximum and minimum diameters of the sediments are low، sediments are smoother and more regular. Equation 2in the above equations is the negative logarithm of the size of particle diameter scale is the base2 (Equation3) Equation3• For microscopic analysis، thin section samples were prepared of deposits remaining on the 80-mesh sieve، and using colour Polarising microscopy to calculate grain morphology، shape، roundness، transparency and opacity، also 120 seeds from each sample were selected to calculate friction coefficients.
    Results
    The result of Image analysis of ETM +، were detected levels of a surface (inner surface) belong to the PC2 and the outer surface to the PC1. Also، two levels of IRS image were extracted same as ETM +. Compared the obtained levels were similar in colour and shape; so field observations was done based on the levels. Microscopic examination of the sections was shown that clay minerals as the most grains in samples. Also there were alkali feldspar minerals in sediment samples، which indicated they were under water during wet season. A highlight from the microscopic scale، already kaolinite was seen more than around Meghan. Angular grains of quartz were found in the all samples. In general، samples 1، 2، 3، 4، 7، 9، 10 and 11، with opaque particles have much more transparent debris that indicated the movement of particles in wind erosion control. On the other hand، angular particles in the samples have become increased، thus، distance transport (by wind or runoff) was not far. Among the samples، the highest coefficients of friction belong to samples 6، 7 and 8، but the particles sorted in almost all cases were inappropriate.
    Conclusion
    The results were concluded that due to the deposition of alkali feldspar and clay minerals، the weather was wetter. Generally intact feldspar was indicated the dry weather and weathering shown wet climate. Also there is kaolinite sediments in the lagoon surface and reduce the amount of feldspar minerals in the pond، was proved humid climate during the recent years. Some of examples were angular and opaque particles that could be indicated wind erosion. The above evidence was shown that recent zone had runoff erosion in winter and wind erosion in summer، after the last glaciers and reduced rainfall has occurred in the lagoon Meghan. It represented the dominant evaporated limestone and carbonate mineral are less solubility and was deposited earlier therefore have formed the carbonate zone. In the following period sulphite minerals was started to deposit. In general، whenever the climate was wetter with more precipitation، the center of Meghan was wet and salty and in the drier period، solute salt was deposited، so lime and Gypsum faces were seen around the Meghan. Now the biggest threat for the wetlands is decreasing of entering water to the lake in the boreal summer. And in the winter، flash floods caused widespread damage zones and spread salt in summer، decrease the amount of entering water and cause drought and therefore more dust is generated.
    Keywords: wetlands, desertification, Maghan, water crisis
  • Ali Zangiabady, Zahra Esmaelian Page 113
    Introduction
    Nowadays، the vulnerability of human’s dwellings to the natural disasters has been steadily increasing as the results of the population centralisation. Economic activities in vast and dense regions and disorganised and irregular conditions of dwellings in which the low-income dwellers of urban and rural areas live. The scale of damage caused by a crisis is not only related to its destructiveness power but largely to the quality of infrastructural structures exposed to the incident. With respect to the size، population and economic، political and social importance of Isfahan and potential and actual threats، the vulnerability of the city dwellings to the natural disasters crisis is completely tangible and evidence when compared with equipment and facilities corresponding the world standards، population threshold features and the range of various dangers. The aim of this article is to identify and prioritize the dwellings vulnerability indices in Isfahan’s 14-fold zones. The spatial domain of this survey is the 14-fold zones of Isfahan based on the following hypothesis: Dose the structural architecture of Isfahan dwellings have a suitable performance against the natural disasters crisis? What are the initial zones and indices need to be considered? Study Area: The study covers Esfahans Fourteen zones. Esfahan، in the center of Esfahan Province، has been located on one of the central thoroughfare of the country. This city is filled with a set of valuable historic monuments which distinguish it from other cities; Therefore، it necessitates more attention to it from a geologically. Esfahan plain has been situated in the Sanandaj _ Sirjan zone.
    Material And Methods
    The studying variables are quantitative and qualitative characteristics of Isfahan dwellings and the measurement of their vulnerability rate. Sample size has been accounted for 340 samples as probability sampling using Cochran formula with a confidence level of 95. 5. In addition to the available statistics about the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of dwellings and vulnerability conditions of Isfahan، data collecting tools as well as other tools such as observation، questionnaire، map، field work، Internet resources and library resources have been utilised. To determine the reliability of the data collecting tools، the superficial reliability technique has been applied. To study the group vulnerability، “dwellings qualitative and quantitative indices” have been analysed using statistical models and methods.
    Results And Discussion
    Initially، the proportion and the rank of each different variable on vulnerability rate of the city dwellings have been analysed. To do this work، regarding the score of responders to each class of variables and then summing the resulting scores، the score of any variable was identified and finally each of their rank determined. From the view of variables vulnerability rank of 1، accessibility to the building stories 2 and the building age 3” has the highest effect on the vulnerability of the city dwelling. Regarding the regression test، determination coefficient (R. Square) between two variables “qualitative and quantitative conditions of dwellings” in any urban zone and “vulnerability to the natural disaster” is %65، that is، “qualitative and quantitative conditions of dwellings” only verified %65 of the resulted variance in dependent variable and the reminded %35 are predictable by other factors. After studying total scores of the city zones، vulnerability rate was classified based on a range from 1 to 14 in which number 1 means the highest vulnerability and 14 the lowest vulnerability. Total scores of the whole variables were studied and each of the zones and scores were studied separately from 100 and then the zones ranked based on it. Zones 12، 3 and 4 have the highest rate of vulnerability and zone 5، 10، 7، 6، 13، 2، and 8 the moderate، respectively. IT means that with respect to the whole studied variables about natural disasters vulnerability، these zones are in planning priority about the crisis management.
    Conclusion
    In this survey، the following findings are to be studied and described: 1-when studying the urban vulnerability to the natural disaster، quality and quantity knowledge of the city dwellings has priority. 2-prioritising the urban zones from the viewpoint of quality and quantity vulnerability are possible using regression and Person analyses as well. 3-All of the variables studied were 24 ones classified to five basic elements. 4-The proportion and rank of any different variables on vulnerability rate of city dwellings were analysed. The results show that “accessibility to the building، accessibility to the building stories and building age” variables have the highest impact on the vulnerability rate of the city dwellings. 5- Finally، based on the whole variables analysis the vulnerability rate of dwellings obtained for the whole city and separated zones in which the zones 4، 3، 1 and 8 are the most vulnerable zones of the city، respectively.
    Keywords: natural disaster, prioritizing, vulnerability indices, Isfahan dwellings