نشریه اقتصاد پولی، مالی
پیاپی 5 (بهار و تابستان 1392)

The knowledge about the money demand function and its effecting factors is the most important ubject in Examination of the effects of monetary policies on economiy in order that the monetary policy can help monetary authorites to achive their goals by effecting money demand. This paper estimates the demand of money in Iran over 1350-1390 period using co-integration and error correction methodology. The analysis shows that narrow definition of money (M1)، domestic gross production، real exchange rate، prices level and return rate on long-term deposit are integrated. Thus، using Johansen-Juselius cointegration approach، the long-term demand for money is specified and estimated. Empirical results show that there are two co-integrated vectors among variables. In this model the coefficient of error correction term is equal to -0. 52 which is found statistically significant. This means that 52 percent of error in each period will be corrected in long run trend. Also we find that the income elasticity of demand for money is equal to 1. 82 which shows that one percent increase in income، lead to 1. 82 percent increase in money demand. The positive income elasticity of demand for money is consistent with related economic theories. Moreover the coefficients of rate of return on long-term deposit and real exchange rate equals -0. 82 and -0. 34 respectively، which shows that one unit increase in return rate on long-term deposit and one percent increase in real exchange rate، leads to -0. 82 unit and -0. 34 percent decrease in money demand that show substitution of money in Iran is confirmed. Finaly results showed that money demand function during this period was stable.

In the bubble، State of Stock erchange the stock valuation of companies based on their actual performance and price are not taken as an indicator of performance can not show it. The present study investigated the relationship between clarity and price bubbles companies incidence of Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2008 to 2010، by using the continuity and independence tests (chi-square) and binary logistic regression is. These tests on 70 companies of which are chosen amony 400 companies has been implemented. Hazrabtda research companies in real returns on a daily basis using specialized software such as the securities and exchange process or and software to deviseane wRA and then collected by Excel software، the initial processing was done on them and these data were used for the test sequence spss environment. The first hypothesis of the study is Hbabdar clarity in companies، The results indicate that significant differences exist in the clarity of information on companies Hbabdar And clarity (distributed) information between the companies is average. The second hypothesis is also investigating transparency in companies Ghyrhbabdar The results indicated that there was no significant difference in the clarity and transparency of information Ghyrhbabdar companies (distribution) information between the companies is very high. The third hypothesis of the continuity test result Sindicate that there is a relation between the openness and clarity of price information and occurrence of bubbles in companies and in companies Ghyrhbabdar Hbabdar average clarity of informationis is very much.

This paper surveys the effects of trade shocks on macroeconomics variables in different exchange rate regimes in developing countries in period 1990-2009 by using Friedman’s hypothesis. The results show that trade shocks causes greater real output volatility in countries adopting fixed exchange rate regimes relative to those adopting flexible exchange rate regimes. Also، variance decomposition analysis demonstrates that، in fixed exchange rate regimes، trade shocks have a maximum effect in explaining the fluctuations in Gross Domestic Products. The contribution of trade shocks in explaining the fluctuations in real output is between 45% and 71% for countries adopting fixed regimes and between 1% and 11% for countries adopting flexible regimes. Generally، as a whole the results of the study for all countries except Iran are in accordance with Friedman’s hypothesis.

As an important goal، financial institutions in order to enhance their performance identify customers to credit allocation to those who are less likely to default. But for this purpose some common methods such as personal judge، analysis and audit have been used. However، most of these methods have focused on credit risk of customers، while the credit capacity to provide facilities for customers can play an important role to implement. Therefore، this paper uses neural network model to calculate both the credit risk factor and capacity at the same time. Simultaneous، linear and logistic regression models to calculate the credit risk and capacity has been compared with the neural networks model results. Results imply higher efficiency of neural networks than linear regression to estimate the capacity and efficiency of credit customers.

This study examines the impact of resource financing and interlocking stockholders on the Tehran Stock Exchange market response on reported earnings among companies listed on Tehran Stock Exchange. The aim of this research is to answer the fundamental question، whether the amount of reliance of companies on debt financing has effect on market response on their reported earnings or not? In this research، in order to investigate of the impact of interlocking stockholders، we examine the role and impact of institutional owners on market response on reported earnings. The research sample consists of 96 companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during the period 2002 to 2011. For investigating the impact of resource financing and interlocking stockholders on the market response on reported earnings، econometric panel data approaches were used. The result of testing hypothesis shows that the resource financing has a negative significant effect on market response on earnings so that with increasing reliance of companies on debt financing the market response on earnings is reduced. The results also show that the interlocking stockholders has a positive significant effect on market response on earnings so with increasing presence of interlocking stockholders، market response on earnings will increase too.

Discovering the structure and pattern of crude oil price fluctuations enables us to disclose valuable information about the price change، information transmission and reactions of these markets to the spillover in NYMEX. This study focuses on this task. Moreover، it tries to capture the fluctuation effects on the markets'' instabilities and analyses the spot and future markets operations in both price discovery – through error correction model- or volatility and risk spillover – through multivariate GARCH-BRKK model. The results show that causality in mean is from future to spot market and not the vice versa. In other words future markets undertake price discovery and leadership. The result of volatility spillover، information and risk transmission between markets shows that information transmission is from future to spot market and the reverse does not hold

With regard the wave of globalization، the acceptance of free trade is further enhanced so that globalization is known as the fundamental principle of economic growth in the developing countries. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between globalization and tax revenue، in the theoretically and empirically framework. By using a panel of 16 developing countries over the period 1990–2009 and controlling for the endogeneity of several of the explanatory variables، error component two-stage least squares method is used. Controll of determinants of tax revenue، the results of this study show that globalization (the share of international trade in gross domestic product) has a positive and statistically significant effect on tax revenue in developing countries. Another result is that macroeconomic policies and structural characteristics have significant effects on tax revenue and each of these factors plays an important role in determining the impact of globalization on tax revenue.

Stock is an item of financial assets portfolio. So، understanding the factors influencing its value concerns investors. Price changes in the stock Exchange is not only due to internal factors such as dividends، net profit and cash flows of the companies، but also external factors such as macroeconomic variables. Automotive industry، in the world، is one of most strategic industries and in Iran has the highest share in GDP after oil industry. This paper investigates the relationship between stock price of automotive companies in Tehran Stock Exchange and monetary macro variables such as exchange rate and consumer price index by using panel data from 2004 - 2010. Our results show direct and significant relationship between stock prices of the companies with their dividends and real incomes and so with the exchange rate، while there is a negative relationship between stock price and consumer price index.

The effectiue factors on economic growth always have been considered by economic specialists and policy makers. Investment is an example of these factors. This study examines the relationship between different kind of investment and economic growth in the context of endogenous growth model for target countries of twenty-year vision document over the period of 1990-2010 by using panel data approach. The results indicate that population growth and the average number of subscribers in the stage of primary school education had a negative and significant impact on economic growth. Also، the effect of domestic investment and the annual inflation rate and export was positive and significant but the effect of exchange rate and FDI was not significant.

Always economic growth is one of the most important indicates for economic development. Thus، more production is important and effective way to achieve economic development. In The other hand energy production is considered as the one of the inputs. This study، examines the causality relationship between energy consumption، economic growth and price among OPEC member countries. This study uses annual data over the period 1978-2008 by using panel data technique. Results Our show that a two-way Causality relationship are between the variables as energy consumption and economic growth in the long run، while the one-way causality relationship is from economic growth to price increase. As well as two-way causality relationship are between the variables energy consumption، economic growth and prices in the short term.