مجله پژوهش های راهبردی مسائل اجتماعی ایران
سال دوم شماره 3 (پیاپی 6، پاییز و زمستان 1392)

In recent century, human safety from crime is very important in everyday life. In terms of human needs, Maslow's (1943) hierarchy of needs suggests that sustainable environments should cater for biological and physiological needs, safety, affiliation, self-esteem, and self-actualization, respectively. Crime and avoidance from of are surely important in people's agenda as the most important issues in many countries worldwide. Geographers deal with the distribution of a wide variety of geographical entities and phenomena amongst human safety and freedom. They analyze spatial distributions, pattern of this distribution in terms of objective and subjective phenomena, spatial variability and so forth. The concept of spatial analysis is related to discovery of spatial patterns, causes and effects of phenomena, autocorrelation, etc. In the past, when performing spatial crime analysis, geographers were limited to mapping crimes in locations and regions. However, technological improvements, first and foremost in the computer processor capabilities, have become essential in recent analytical advances in the methods available for analyzing place-based data. The initiation of computer mapping applications and additional geographic information systems (GIS) are important to being able to measure and represent the spatial relationships in data. ESDA is a collection of techniques to describe and imagine spatial distributions; identify unusual locations or spatial outliers, discovering patterns of spatial association, clusters, or hot spots. Also, it suggests spatial regimes or other forms of spatial heterogeneity. The present study used results of the 2006 census of population and housing, Residential burglary data of Zahedan as none-spatial data, and census Zone map of Zahedan as spatial data.In order to measure the spatial distribution, autocorrelation and autoregressive we used Moran’s I and LISA index in ArcGIS 9.3 and GeoDA 0.9.3 software. Spatial aggregation of objects produces a variety of distinct spatial patterns that can be characterized by the size and shape of the aggregations, and can be quantified according to the degree of similarity between the objects in their attributes or quantitative values. These properties of spatial patterns can be indicative of the underlying processes and factors that generate and modify them through time. The Moran's I (Spatial Autocorrelation) tool measures spatial aggregation based on both feature locations and feature attributes or quantitative values simultaneously. It evaluates whether the objects occurred, occurrence is clustered, dispersed, or random. LISA index identifies concentrations of high values, concentrations of low values, and spatial outliers. The following steps were used to perform research:Step1: Preparing and pre-processing data.Step 2: Making spatial units base on census zone map of Zahedan for Residential burglary data.Step 3: Spatial data aggregationStep 4: Setting Moran’s I and LISA Step 5: Analysis resultsStep6: making mapsDiscussion of Results & Crime mapping can play an important role in the policing and crime reduction process, from the first stage of data collection through to the monitoring and evaluation of any targeted response. It can also act as an important mechanism in a more pivotal preliminary stage, that of preventing crime by helping in the design of initiatives that are successful in tackling a crime problem. Spatial data is characterized by changeability and non-stationary. Examination of spatial pattern is an important subject in spatial analysis, which includes some components such as spatial pattern, spatial autocorrelation and autoregressive. One of the favorites in spatial analysis is discovering spatial pattern by ESDA. Several indexes and tools have been developed for analyzing spatial pattern. At this paper we used Moran’s I and LISA for crime occurrence spatial pattern. The results of present study show that portion of immigrant population, activity type and lifestyle have spatial association with Residential burglary. The Moran’s I +0.85 showed that Residential burglar’s distribution is clustered on regions surrounded by high portions of burglary. Two types of Contiguity (Rook & Queen Contiguity) used in analysis and the result showed clustered zones on Zahedan. In multivariate LISA index for relationship between socio-economic variable and burglary value and portion, it became clear that immigrant, unmarried population- especially males-, and population density have a meaningful relationship with burglary. LISA index showed that zones with high value of burglary are surrounded by zones with high portions of immigrant population and high percentage of unmarried men.

Although disorders of drivers constitutes an important portion of traffic disorder but pedestrians also have a considerable role in traffic violations, a role which has gone unnoticed for the most part. Pedestrians have a significant role in traffic system and they are usually the most vulnerable unit in traffic events. The importance of provision of traffic regulations by the pedestrians, for promoting of traffic system, is not deniable because pedestrians are the most users of streets and have a considerable share in traffic accidents. It is clear that pedestrian’s traffic behaviors is one of the most important reasons that endanger their own lives. Pedestrian’s disorder is an important social problem, which causes traffic chaos and accidents. Therefore, paying attention to them as one of the major causes and victims of traffic disorders is necessary. For explaining pedestrian’s disorder, a large number of factors could be involved. Based on the social capital theory, it appears that there is a significant relationship between social capital and pedestrian's tendency towards disorder. In general, social capital is a capacity for collective action based on trust, norms and networks. Increased social capital can reduce operating costs of organizations. According to Putnam and Fukuyama, increase in social capital, if other variable are equal, will reduce the amount of deviation. As a result, the erosion of social capital can explain traffic disorder as a deviant behavior. In addition, it seems that there is a significant relationship between awareness toward traffic regulations and pedestrians’ tendency towards disorder. Ogburne believed that cultural behaviors take time to catch up with technological innovations, and social problems are caused by this lag. On the basis of Ogburne’s theory, we can say that today, because of increasing technological innovations in traffic areas, pedestrians, particularly in developing countries, have not been able to adapt to these technological innovations. Relying on Ogburne theory, one of the basic assumptions of this study is that increasing of pedestrians’ awareness toward traffic regulations can reduce traffic disorder on their behalf.This research is a survey study. Research population is all 18 -60 years old citizens of Yasouj. Sample size is 479 individuals that were selected by means of random multi-stage sampling method. The measurement tool is a three-scale questionnaire including social capital, traffic awareness and traffic disorder of the pedestrians. Social capital scale was divided into six dimensions of social contact, trust, cooperation, supportive community, information and communication networks and groups. Validity of the scales was measured by content validity technique, and reliability was calculated by cronbach alpha coefficient for social capital scale and Kuder-Richardson coefficient for awareness and traffic disorder of pedestrian's scales. Discussion of Results & In total, 479 individuals answered the questionnaire. On the basis of the scales results, the mean traffic disorder of pedestrians with range of 0-7 is 2.6 and the mean traffic awareness scale with range of 0-9 is 6.8 and the mean social capital with range of 0-175 is 88.7. In order to investigate the relationship between independent variables and the dependent variable and determining to what extent independent variables are able to explain the disorder and which one is a stronger predictor, stepwise linear regression method was used. The results are presented in Table 1.On the basis of the Table 1, the strongest predictor of traffic disorder of pedestrians is social capital variable. This variable alone explains about 20% of the variance of the dependent variable. In Second step, after entering awareness toward traffic regulations into the model, the coefficient was reached to 24%, indicating that this variable can adds 4% to the prediction of the dependent variable. In the third step, the regression coefficient after entering age into the model, is 27% that specifies this variable can adds 2.7% to the prediction of dependent variable. As a result, social capital, traffic awareness and age are able to explain almost 27% of the variance of pedestrian’s traffic disorders. The main goal of this research was to investigate the relationship between social capital and traffic awareness with pedestrian's tendency towards traffic disorders in Yasouj city. Based on the descriptive research findings, pedestrians’ tendency towards traffic disorders is high in Yasouj. This situation is not satisfactory for a town such as Yasouj with an increasing population and motor vehicles, and also with many difficulties in urban facilities. Inferential findings show that social capital has an inverse significant impact on pedestrians’ tendency towards traffic disorders. In other words, increasing social capital means a decrease in pedestrian's tendency towards traffic disorders. This research finding theoretically confirms the relationship between social capital and decreasing violations that presented by Putnam and Fukoyams. There is an inverse significant relationship between traffic awareness and pedestrians’ tendency towards traffic disorders and with arising traffic awareness, pedestrians’ tendency is decreased. In the framework of the demographic variables, the results show that there is an inverse significant relationship between age and pedestrian's tendency towards traffic disorders and there is no relationship between other demographic variables such as sex, marital status and ethnicity with pedestrians’ tendency towards traffic disorders.

Security is one of the first necessities in every society. Talking about different aspects of security, such as personal, national, social, aviation, road safety, food security and other types of security, shows that this topic is really pervasive in every single aspect of a person's life. Having been influenced by an idealistic view, until the 80s, studies on security were conceived as a response to survival, and it was taken for granted that human beings will always face an existential threat that makes security inevitable. In such attitudes, security was considered in association with physical survival of government- nation, and potential military invasion to this survival. In the late 1970s, however, with the advent of globalization, transnational ideas, networks, etc. a new interpretation of the word security was formed, and replaced concepts such as idea, order and certainty with other concepts such as doubt, fear and uncertainty. The first scholar who doubts the classical relations between security and defense is Bary Buzan. We can consider him as the founder of the Copenhagen School. He theorizes about security, claiming that security is not limited to national security (or the security of the government), but that it should be also expanded into new branches (military, political, economic, environmental, and social). Copenhagen School considers women as a social group that has its own identity. Several factors, such as economic and social factors, media, religious commitment, etc. can bring about a sense of security for women. However, these factors can influence women rights, their freedom of speech and religious freedom, or may lead to a variety of threats. As long as a society is not safe, in individual's point of view, citizens will not feel secure. Women will not feel secure either, unless they feel peace at school, university, workplace, public place, on street, etc. That is why they feel anxious about being raped, mistreated in their working place and also not feeling secure while commuting, etc., and, as a result, these factors are important in women's sense of security. A survey which is conducted by the Center for Women's Participation shows that one of the major problems of women is lack of sense of security, which can be one of the most important concerns for women. This has put limitations on women's activities in public places, and, as citizens, they have difficulties with active work. In this research, our method is survey. We use self-report questionnaires and cluster-sampling technique. Our study is concentrated on girls and women between 15- 40 years old in Shiraz. Using Lin's formula, we calculated the volume of the sample, which is, with a reliability coefficient of 5, a confidence coefficient of 95% and a population variance of 50-50%, 383 individuals. Discussion of Results & The results show that the following factors affect the sense of social security: marital status, being satisfied about appearance, family’s supporting, other people’s attitude towards person and religiosity. Family’s supporting is the factor which has the most significant relationship. Also, based on regression analysis results, we can conclude that 62% of the dependent variable changes can be explained by considering inserted variables into the regression model. According to the results obtained from the analysis, families have a very significant role in developing a sense of security among their members. And commitment to religious traditions and customs is among those factors that can have strong effects on women's dressing styles; this commitment, in return, can influence their security. Finally, it should be noted that police must try to act in such a way that it makes citizens feel secure, and not frightened. The police can have a more significant role in developing a sense of security among people in the society. In this way, citizens will trust them more and they can do their job in the best way.

The concept of social security, feeling of security and citizenship are key elements in achieving development. Sociologists and criminologists have always paid special attention to them. Study of the factors influencing feeling of security can increase our chance to facilitate its increase. Also enhance citizen's feeling of security and welfare of the citizens can lead to better acceptance of responsibility and commitment. The widespread use of social media in recent years and the impact of media on society have led to many scholars to think about security and how it is projected in media. The aim of this research is to study the effects of mass media on the population of Sanandaj in terms of feeling of social security, which has be divided into three aspects in this research: instability, insecurity and lack of imagination. We argue that when any of these aspects constituting security is absent, people feel unsafe, and when all the three are present, full security is established. Also, when people suffer from some kind of insecurity, they assume that there is no security at all. In general then we can say that the concept of social security means a feeling of mental peace. For women, it means how much they are protected against risks and harassments coming from others. The main variables investigated in relation to the impact of the media on people's sense of security stem from Becker's (1998) theoretical framework. Becker admits that the media is able to manipulate the patterns of social interaction and social values change. In this paper, we focus on this structuring approach, with theories such as magic bullet or hypodermic needle, priming, cultivation, spiral of silence, cultural imperialism, and theory of agenda setting. According to agenda setting the focus of the media on public issues is limited in its understanding of the issues.The research method used in this study is survey. Research population includes women of 15-35 years old in the city of Sanandaj. Sample size was obtained through Lin formula to be 382. We selected these individuals through random multi-stage sampling method. Discussion of Results & The findings suggest that gender, marital status, housing type, housing conditions, have meaningful relationships with sense of social security among research population. To test the impact of media on sense of security, two-way analysis of variance was used. The results suggest a positive relationship between media consumption and feeling of security. In particular, the results indicated that a combination of using local television and local radio has the greatest positive impact on the sense of security. Next, a combination of using internet, mobile phones, and mobile Internet can be mentioned. We can say that in order to increase feeling of security people should be encouraged to use local media outlets. However, it is necessary that their trust can be obtained so they believe what they are given as information is true.The present century is the era of communication and information. It is important to note that the media itself is now more important than the accuracy if the information provided by this media. Hence it is important to inform and educate audience. Through "media literacy", it becomes possible to convert audience as passive recipients of information into active analyzers of media's content.

Crime is an extremely important social and economic issue in our day. The considerable costs imposed by crime on victims and society greatly exceed the private benefits of crime (Becker, 1968). The economics of crime is an interdisciplinary topic that is intended to analyze crimes economically. Regarding the increase in crime rates in our country, a comprehensive study of the causes of crime, especially economic crimes such as robbery is necessary, because it is directly related to the economy and an accurate understanding of causal relationship between the two will help policymakers in planning for a better society. The causal relationship between crime and unemployment is an old-age question in the social science literature. There have been many studies of the relationship between crime and unemployment from a range of perspectives, but this research tries to produce clear evidence of a causal link between crime and inflation/unemployment rates. A large empirical literature investigating the link between macroeconomic conditions and aggregate crime rates has developed over the last thirty years. The majority of these studies focus on the relationship between unemployment and crime. As a result, the literature largely neglects the role of inflation as a potential determinant of crime. One of the most important side effects of economic policies in Iran has been an increase in inflation. This has led to different crimes especially economic crimes and robbery, by widening the gap between different social classes and income groups. As inflation and unemployment rates were the only variables used in this study, the results might not fully capture the criminal behavior. Results imply that inflation and unemployment rates cause crime rate, but there is no strong evidence of the reverse causality. An individual will engage in criminal activities because of their inability to maintain a particular level of living as a consequence of inflation and unemployment. Therefore unemployment is a shock effect that causes an individual to engage in criminal activities. Inflation causes the purchasing power to reduce while increasing the cost of living. As a result, crime rate may increase because an individual is unable to maintain their standard of living as before. However, this phenomenon does not happen immediately because it takes time for inflation to gradually reduce the individual's purchasing power. Crime rates rise as the inflation rate rises. Because of the lag between price and wage adjustments, inflation lowers the real income of low-skilled labor, but rewards property criminals due to the rising demand and subsequent high profits in the illegal market. Inflation destroys the confidence in the existing institution's arrangements, resulting in a loss of social control, and erodes the economic ability of communities to maintain real leverage for deterrence. Although the unemployment rate is a logical variable to include in an economic model of property crime, it suffers from three potential problems. First, unemployment varies substantially across regions, making it difficult to pin down its true effects using national data. Secondly, unemployment does not capture discouraged workers, who have ceased searching for jobs because they believe that it is a futile effort. Thirdly, unemployment is only partially connected to the manufacturing sector, which disproportionately effects the urban poor and, as a result, has been linked to crime rates. The downward pressure on purchasing power associated with periods of rising inflation affect low-income households more adversely. Since low-income groups commit a high proportion of crimes in Iran, one would expect periods of higher inflation to be concomitant with higher rates of crime, especially property crime. The low-income segment of society should find crime more attractive during inflationary periods, as wages generally do not adjust as freely as other prices (See Christiane et al. 2005). One can also think of inflation as a tax that generates a dominant income effect for “labor supply” in the underground sector of the economy. Using statistics of the past 20 years regarding Iranian annual reports of crimes in the field of non-creditable checks, we try to introduce a suitable model by employing econometric methods based on available statistics and auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL). We investigate the long term relationships between different variables, and then in the second stage using error correction model (ECM), we look at the short term relationships between variables.Using the models mentioned above, we conclude that unemployment and inflation rate variables have a considerable effects on increase in robbery and non-creditable checks. Discussion of Results & Proper economic policies bring about social and moral effects besides economic implications. The Results of this study suggest that inflation and crime rates are co-integrated with a positive relationship and the causal link is from inflation and unemployment to crime. It appears that price stability contributes considerably to the reduction of property crimes. Also, the relationship between monetary policy and crime is considered according to the hypothesis by which the government emits money to finance its deficit. The result of the research shows that economic policies, which increase inflation, have a negative role in economic development and have a negative effect in social damage. These policies increase economic crimes and social deviances. Therefore, expansion and longtime planning to decrease inflation is necessary for controlling deviance and crimes. Since the social analysis of economic policies is very crucial, it is necessary that researchers consider the following topics: social impact of inflation, especially on social deviance such as perversion. Also, if the analysis of crime at "the economics of crime” will be considered with the sociological analysis at social patalogy, based on interdisciplinary approach, then we can better study this problem.

Capital and security are like two wings of a bird and always have interaction with each other so that capital cannot be understood without security. Because of this, owners of capital have always been strong supporters of security. Therefore, we can say that providing security is one of the main factors of strengthening or weakening of investment absorption in a Society. East Azerbaijan province is one of the most migrant-exporting provinces in Iran to such a scale that immigrant transmission rates of this province have been even more than provinces which have experienced war, such as Ilam and Khuzestan provinces. The results of general censuses of population and housing for decades of 60s, 70s and 80s confirm the above claim. In this context, the present paper investigates components of security which influence investor's tendency towards immigration from East Azerbaijan province. This Research was done through survey and the population investors under study in the province of East Azerbaijan is approximately 8794 individuals, of whom 390 were selected using stratified random sampling method. The data was collected via questionnaire. Research hypotheses include increase in rate of satisfaction from police performance leads to reduce in the tendency of investors to migrate, increase in investor's psychological security, leads to reduce in the tendency of investors to migrate, increase in police security, leads to reduce in the tendency of investors to migrate, and promoting and protecting the social status of investor in the province, leads to reduce in their tendency to migrate. For preliminary analysis SPSS version 21 is used and for modelling effective factors of the study Lisrel software, version 8/5, is used.Discussion of Results & Research findings show that rate of investor's tendency towards migration from the province is above the moderate level. Also, descriptive analysis of the research variables show that investor's satisfaction with police performance, police security, psychological security, and promoting of social status, is above the moderate level. There is a significant relationship between variables of police performance, police security, psychological security, and promoting of social status with the rate of investor's tendency towards migration from the province. Taken together, these variables explain 26 percent of the dependent variable. Final model produced in the Lisrel software indicate that the most important variables influencing investor's tendency towards migration from the province are police performance and promoting the status of investors.

Spatial analysis of urban delinquency at the level of regions and providing security is one of the basic factors in optimum urban management. Spatial analysis of urban delinquency and interpretation of its distribution in different locations make it possible to organize and manage spaces. Recently, Tehran megalopolis, with 22 municipality regions has the highest rate of urban delinquency in Iran. Preliminary study of documents at the department of social issues in police organization show that data related to urban delinquency are collected for each year. Data reflects this fact that one of the most important social and security problems in Tehran is the high number of delinquency and crime. On the basis of daily police report, about 15 to 20 house thefts occur in Tehran. This problem leads to spending considerable amounts of budget and human resources to control and provide security. Also, problems such as individual and group fights, theft, stealing from pockets, car and motor cycle theft, social corruption specially, rape, drug and alcoholic beverages sales are the most important among urban delinquencies. Some of these problems are very important for police force, considering the political- security, social and cultural dimensions. Therefore, it is necessary to study and analyze the distribution of delinquency and its types in different regions of Tehran. It can be considered as the first step to prevent and control urban delinquency. Therefore, the following questions are addressed in this research: How is the distribution of delinquencies in 22 municipality regions of Tehran? How are the reciprocal relationships of the urban delinquencies in these 22 regions? What are the relations between distributions of urban delinquencies with population density in these 22 regions?To confront the problem, considering the literature review, urban delinquencies were analyzed at two spatial levels: 1- Micro-individual level analysis that emphasizes the individual differences between delinquent and non-delinquent individuals. 2- Macro analysis that emphasizes the role of social context in the distribution of delinquency and emphasizes spatial units. The spatial analysis of delinquencies is performed at different levels: urban blocks, neighborhoods, areas, urban regions and finally, at the country level. One of the issues considered by geographers is the spatial analysis of urban delinquency in urban and regional studies. Recently, geographers use Geographic Information System (GIS) to present the spatial distribution of delinquency on the basis of spatial data, location of committing crime, socio-economic characteristics of delinquents, and place of residence. Identifying the nodes of delinquencies enables us to predict the location of delinquent events with the help of Arc GIS software. Finally, this information can be used by the Police to control and reduce the rate of delinquencies at the level of city and to increase security. Theories related to delinquency nodes can be classified into three groups: 1- Theories related to nodes of delinquencies, 2- Theories related to the relation between delinquencies with population density, and 3- Ecological and population theories. Each of these theories tries to explain delinquency in a particular way. Current research considers theories related to delinquencies and population density. Statistical population of this study includes delinquents arrested in 2009, in 22 regions of Tehran, those who have profiles available for them. Data and information about these delinquents were collected by department of social issues of police organization. Variables were divided into two groups: 1- population density in each of these 22 regions based on 2009 yearly census for Tehran, and 2- Urban delinquencies for the year 2009 for these 22 regions. Delinquencies were classified into 5 groups: crime, individual and group fights, thefts (pockets, houses, stores, cars…), and social corruptions (including drug sale, alcoholic beverages. …). This is a goal-oriented research. To achieve goals of this study, descriptive and analytic methods were used. Correlations between variables were examined. To analyze the data, statistical methods were used through SPSS software. One of the goals of this research was to analyze the distribution of delinquencies and population density. Discussion and Results & Study and spatial analysis of urban delinquency in 22 regions of Tehran shows that theft occurs in Tehran more often than other crimes. Secondly, individual and group fights with 24672 cases have the second rank. The highest rate of individual and group fights happened in region 4. Social delinquencies with 11002 cases have the third rank. The highest number of social delinquencies happened in region 6 with 981 cases. Delinquencies against assets and properties have the fourth rank. The highest rate has occurred in region 12 where central bazaar is located. Analysis of the correlation between urban delinquencies and population density, with 95 percent confidence level, shows that correlation between population density and crime is r= 0.543; correlation between population density and individual and group fights is r=0.292; correlation between population density and theft is r=0.215; correlation between population density and delinquencies against assets and property ownership is r=0.205; correlation between population density with social delinquency is r=0.254. Results show that crime has the highest correlation with social corruption r=0.601; individual and group fights have the highest correlation with social corruption. Thefts are mostly related to assets. Urban sprawl and rapid metropolitan growth in recent years had consequences such as increase in delinquencies, and crime rates. In fact, urbanization creates more opportunities to commit delinquencies. Results of this research show that because of their particular structures, cultural, and socio - economic conditions, some regions have more possibility of the emergence of delinquency. In contrast, other regions put barriers to commit delinquencies. Therefore, identifying the spatial conditions that provide opportunities for delinquencies is important. The most important result of this study is that the highest number of delinquencies is related to theft and it happens mostly in regions 4, 3 and 12. Results of the research show that the pattern of distribution follows density pattern. It means that with the increase in population density, urban delinquencies increase too.

Nowadays the social context of urban parks is quite important as people increasingly spend their leisure time in these parks. However, because of high population density, hiding corners such as below and within the vegetation, low light and lack of visibility at night, these parks may turn into secret places for crime. Size, location of the park, internal design, type of vegetation, and type of social groups who visit and use a park, are, among others, effective factors that influence the amount and degree of aforementioned crimes. The overall goal of this study is to recognize various social pathologies which are common in parks and other recreational green areas of Sanandaj, in order to plan, regulate and provide appropriate solutions for social aestheticization of landscape parks in this city. This is a study based on survey which is a wide-scale research in the social sciences. This method, which is the most common and most widely used type of quantitative research, can help us present the collected data in a numerical analysis and is useful for purposes of description, explanation and even exploration. The statistical population includes all citizens of Sanandaj who are above the age of 15 years old and who referred to the City's parks. Sampling method is stratified random sampling and sample size was calculated through Cochran's formula. Overall, 105 individuals were selected to constitute sample size. Discussion of Results & Based on descriptive results, women tend to avoid going to the parks at night because their sense of security is low. Generally speaking, going to park at nights is not popular because it is associated with low social status. In other words, people who spend their night at parks are considered to be either of low status or deviant.The results of the study show that each of the independent variables (readability, ambient lighting, and vegetation) have a meaningful and positive relationship with the sense of security, in such a way that whenever these variables are in a good shape, the most prevalent social offenses begin to reduce.